Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Dylan32]

I'll be awake at the deadline, but I don't know what is going on irl to know if I'll be online at that point or not, but I should be able to pay attention and be active throughout the day tomorrow at least.

Oh wait, I read the deadline wrong and for sure won't be awake (hopefully, 4 am here) at the deadline...

[Calamitas]

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...

big promise!

[Calamitas]

I still like scola a bit more than the rest I think

[Calamitas]

Can you work out the probabilities and expected number of each PR in the game?

I have a list from 3.5 years ago of each possible role combination, along with the likelihood of each one being roled, and the number of ways each combination could end up occurring (e.g. several ways because of the "W" rolls). Assuming I was correct back then, and that this set-up is the same as that one, then I can indeed work out all sorts of probability-based things with very little extra effort :-)

The fun things to do are to look at how likely various claims are, and to look at how compatible different pairs/combinations of claims are. The conditional probability of role X existing given what we know publicly from flips and privately from our own roles is pretty useful, so I think I'll keep from spamming the thread too early on with useless marginal probabilities that are probably most interesting for scum who want to breadcrumb a fakeclaim early.

I really don't like you being so open about this

[scolapasta]

I won't be around at deadline, but should be later tonight. I'm still happy with my Calamitas vote, but could some others (maybe Joseph, maybe a lurker, maybe a mail-mi, though I don't think I'll get anyone else on board with that)

And @Space I am definitely on the "not fond of making D1 reads" team. Which is why I don't have much to say.

ppe 3

[SpaceAnemone]

I really don't like you being so open about this

The fact that I (and presumably you?) have the capability to do it, or the fact that I'm refusing to post the marginals Joseph wanted on the grounds that they're probably more useful to scum than to town?

PPE 1: @scola, are you a probabilities person too?

[Calamitas]

I really don't like you being so open about this

The fact that I (and presumably you?) have the capability to do it, or the fact that I'm refusing to post the marginals Joseph wanted on the grounds that they're probably more useful to scum than to town?

PPE 1: @scola, are you a probabilities person too?

Former, but let’s defer this discussion to a later time

[scolapasta]

I really don't like you being so open about this

The fact that I (and presumably you?) have the capability to do it, or the fact that I'm refusing to post the marginals Joseph wanted on the grounds that they're probably more useful to scum than to town?

PPE 1: @scola, are you a probabilities person too?

I am. Maybe not good at it, but I do try to understand the setup and that would be key.

[Dylan32]

I really don't like you being so open about this

The fact that I (and presumably you?) have the capability to do it, or the fact that I'm refusing to post the marginals Joseph wanted on the grounds that they're probably more useful to scum than to town?

PPE 1: @scola, are you a probabilities person too?

I am. Maybe not good at it, but I do try to understand the setup and that would be key.

I don't think being a probabilities person means quite what you think it does. It's a whole level above just understanding the setup.  In our last game, as flips and claims happened, at no point did you make an appeal to any sort of statistical argument to try to decide who was telling the truth or what roles were likely.  You tended to just stick to making normal reads, and then you just speculated on the possibility that I was lying for a while without trying to calculate how likely that actually was.  Space and Calamitas often use that type of argument as a big part of their play once info that starts narrowing stuff down to make it useful.

[yuma]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

[A Drowned Kernel]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

I would like a joseph lynch, and to avoid a lurker lynch

Super hot take: the longer mail-mi's bit goes on the scummier it gets

[Dylan32]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

Based on last game, that means that's the scum team right? haha jk.  I think right now I'm still leaning scola for today. LL and ADK are options based on the wagon argument I had earlier. Agree town on the bird at least.

ppe 1

[yuma]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

I would like a joseph lynch, and to avoid a lurker lynch

Super hot take: the longer mail-mi's bit goes on the scummier it gets

So much. Yes. But now he knows and his behavior will change.

Or will it?

[Swowl]

well I like ADK the most, but I am accepting that is probably not going to happen. Also, they were on your town list, so responding to you I will leave them off. So I guess....

MailMi, LaLight
gap
scolapasta
gap
Calamitas
gap
everyone else.

[Swowl]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

I would like a joseph lynch, and to avoid a lurker lynch

Super hot take: the longer mail-mi's bit goes on the scummier it gets

problem I have with this mentality is that we are in a stall because skum is the lurking component. Or at least that is what I think. I cannot bring myself to just want to lynch someone simply because lurking, but it should be noted that if the lead wagons have consistently so far been town, skum would likely just sit back and watch.

[mail-mi]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

I would like a joseph lynch, and to avoid a lurker lynch

Super hot take: the longer mail-mi's bit goes on the scummier it gets

Thank you for calling mail-mi. Our hours of operation are Day 1, after which we will be closed for business permanently.

[Joseph2302]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

I would like a joseph lynch, and to avoid a lurker lynch

Super hot take: the longer mail-mi's bit goes on the scummier it gets

problem I have with this mentality is that we are in a stall because skum is the lurking component. Or at least that is what I think. I cannot bring myself to just want to lynch someone simply because lurking, but it should be noted that if the lead wagons have consistently so far been town, skum would likely just sit back and watch.

Exactly, I think that is what's happening. I'm town, scola wagon got far too many votes far too quickly- some scum must have piled onto that, which makes me think it would have been a mislynch

[Calamitas]

I mean, I think in no game I ever was the person who got a bunch of votes early on D1 out of RVS got actually lynched, lynches don’t happen that fast. Rather interesting is how fast it evaporated after getting close, that sounds like light evidence for scum

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.5

Joseph2302 (3): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
yuma (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, Dylan32

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~45.5 hours.

I don’t know how much this has changed, but I don’t think by much.

So, when I headed off into the world OUTSIDE yesterday, I felt like we were making a decision between Joseph and Scola. But looking at this, that seem artificial. There aren’t as many votes there as I had thought.

If I imagine that Jospeh is scum, the people trying to derail his wagon are yams, Swowl, and Scola. Swowl is voting for ADK because ADK is voting for Joseph. Joseph was playing around with some L-1 hijinks. Regardless if it was scummy or not, it is not scummy to think that it was. So, Swowl reaction (and yams validating that reaction) seems off.

LL, space, and calamitas are not going to vote for one another today.

I LOVE that yams is making the game fun. He may be scum, he might be protecting his Bro-seph, but I’m still not voting for him.

I find e’s under the radar play super suspicious. Not that he’s lurking, but rather that he is making himself not at all memorable. Like a ninja blending into the darkness.

So, all in all, I think I’m wary of folks who are working harder to protect Jospeh than I am of the folks voting for him.

ADK....what are you thinking? Is Joseph the right lynch today?

[A Drowned Kernel]

well I like ADK the most, but I am accepting that is probably not going to happen. Also, they were on your town list, so responding to you I will leave them off. So I guess....

MailMi, LaLight
gap
scolapasta
gap
Calamitas
gap
everyone else.

Is this scum-to-town or the reverse?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 1.5

Joseph2302 (3): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
yuma (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, Dylan32

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~45.5 hours.

I don’t know how much this has changed, but I don’t think by much.

So, when I headed off into the world OUTSIDE yesterday, I felt like we were making a decision between Joseph and Scola. But looking at this, that seem artificial. There aren’t as many votes there as I had thought.

If I imagine that Jospeh is scum, the people trying to derail his wagon are yams, Swowl, and Scola. Swowl is voting for ADK because ADK is voting for Joseph. Joseph was playing around with some L-1 hijinks. Regardless if it was scummy or not, it is not scummy to think that it was. So, Swowl reaction (and yams validating that reaction) seems off.

LL, space, and calamitas are not going to vote for one another today.

I LOVE that yams is making the game fun. He may be scum, he might be protecting his Bro-seph, but I’m still not voting for him.

I find e’s under the radar play super suspicious. Not that he’s lurking, but rather that he is making himself not at all memorable. Like a ninja blending into the darkness.

So, all in all, I think I’m wary of folks who are working harder to protect Jospeh than I am of the folks voting for him.

ADK....what are you thinking? Is Joseph the right lynch today?

Here's where I'm at:

Towny- LaLight, Dylan, the bird formerly known as swan
Scummy-joseph, mail-mi. Maybe scola. The way the wagon formed and dispersed is a little suspicious but that's what happens with day one wagons and I don't feel that he reacted in a particularly scummy way to it. I don't think I want to lynch scola today

[scolapasta]

If I imagine that Jospeh is scum, the people trying to derail his wagon are yams, Swowl, and Scola.

I never tried to derail the Joseph wagon. (I don't think)

My top votes are : Calamitas, Joseph, mail-mi and maybe e for lurking?

[WestCoastDidds]

I'm working this morning/afternoon...so I'll either be around a lot (because concentrating is hard!) or not at all (sometimes I focus!).

Video/chat mafia later tonight (want to play? Lynchpool at 8FT), and then deadline is pretty early for me tomorrow.

So, I will vote: Joseph for now, but I will definitely be around some later if anyone else decides e is scummy and not just busy.

[Joseph2302]

I'm working this morning/afternoon...so I'll either be around a lot (because concentrating is hard!) or not at all (sometimes I focus!).

Video/chat mafia later tonight (want to play? Lynchpool at 8FT), and then deadline is pretty early for me tomorrow.

So, I will vote: Joseph for now, but I will definitely be around some later if anyone else decides e is scummy and not just busy.

I could Vote: e in preference to me being lynched

[yuma]

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

I would like a joseph lynch, and to avoid a lurker lynch

Super hot take: the longer mail-mi's bit goes on the scummier it gets

Thank you for calling mail-mi. Our hours of operation are Day 1, after which we will be closed for business permanently.

See!