So E.
I've check out votes D1. Interesting stuff.
My theory is that E was shot at because he didn't have many interactions or very prominent ones. Scum is trying to lean into "no lynch gives no info" by killing an unknown entity. So this makes me ask two questions
1) Who was unknown (aka, who should've been on their "target list")?
2) who's leaning into the "oh shucks, why'd they kill E now theres NO INFORMATION?" angle.
My heart wants to think that conclusions from #2 will be more informative, but this gets confounded with stuff like "how against no-lynch are you?". So I'm focusing way more on #1.
Here is my table of info:
name | votes cast | votes received
ADK 9 3
ash 2 8
Awacl 6 5
DatSwan 2 4
E 3 3
faust 5 1
mcmc 4 1
MiX 11 10
pubby 4 5
raerae 6 2
shraeye 4 7
Uncle 8 7
WCD 4 5
Looking at this list, DatSwan, E, faust, mcmc, pubby, raerae are on the low end.
But more important than these raw numbers is some context. Like, how many of those votes are RVS? How many were in scramble time? Also, these columns don't add up because some votes went to no-lynch. Ok. Let's break it down more. Also, remember when UncleEurope voted for two people in the same post (twice). I do, because I had to decide how to classify it. (I treated those 4 votes as 1 for E, 1 for pubby, 1 for shraeye)
So I've decided that post #70 is the "
last RVS" even though I gave one later. And I had a hard time deciding where "scramble" came into play. I want to say
#370 when WCD put nolynch to 4 votes. All of this has implications unfortunately, but onto Step 2.
R means RVS, M means main, S means scramble
name | votes cast | votes received
R M S R M S
ADK 1 6 2 2 1 0
ash 0 1 1 0 7 1
Awacl 1 4 1 0 5 0
DatSwan 0 1 1 0 3 1
E 0 2 1 0 3 0
faust 0 3 2 0 1 0
mcmc 0 2 2 1 0 0
MiX 1 7 3 0 3 7
pubby 1 1 2 1 3 0
raerae 0 5 0 1 1 0
shraeye 0 4 0 0 6 1
Uncle 1 5 1 0 1 6
WCD 0 2 2 0 5 0
I know some people will notice issues, or disagree with my classifications. But I hope you can all see that this is just meant to be a proxy for "interactions". For example, faust and raerae have a medium number of votes given, a very low number received. But I don't think anybody in the thread would have found a faust or a raerae death "uninformative".
I see three players who contributed very little in Main-phase: ash, DatSwan, pubby. WCD, mcmc, E are right outside that group.
Four players got virtually no heat: ADK, faust, mcmc, raerae. Just outside that bubble are E, pubby, DatSwan.
Common to both lists: DatSwan, pubby, mcmc, E. So now I'm trying to recall what these players contributed. My recollection was pubby < mcmc < E < DatSwan. This recollection is the
alluded-to reason that people acting weird near pubby instantly became his "partner"
So the question we all need to seriously ask ourselves is "was there a compelling reason to shoot at E instead of {pubby, mcmc, DatSwan}. A very compelling reason would be "well they are on our team and we don't want to shoot them." I think pubby in particular needs to be looked at.
New player in these games, very little meta to work with, very little framework to interpret the few interactions he did have. That would have been a VERY GOOD "deny town info" nightkill.
Second guess, DatSwan. This comes from the implications of my cut-offs earlier. One of the votes for DatSwan in the main-phase was me, and that was an RVS vote (a joke about how plans have "wasted" our time and we can finally start). He votes me back, in what felt like a continuation of that joke. So in my mind I see DatSwan as having even fewer votes than that table shows.
Adding to this pubby's insistance that Day1 gave us no info
Meh I feel like nothing was gained from yesterday.
Vote: MiX
And all of that is worth
vote: pubby