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[Twistedarcher]

Oh but I'd be perfectly okay no-lynching today and voting for Ashersky tomorrow, too.

[Twistedarcher]

Yeah, I think barring a positive result from PR, no-lynch is probably best. Another shot to find scum is always good. Is there any reason to lynch today as opposed to tomorrow, if there's no result?

[chairs]

Can somebody explain to me the relative value of a no-lynch today, versus a lynch?  I guess obviously a mislynch is bad, but that doesn't stop us from trying most of the time.  in B2B when I suggested no-lynch was viable I got shot down as ridiculous/scummy, so clearly there's a math issue at work here that I'm not catching.

[ashersky]

vote: TA for bold faced lies and painting himself into a scum corner (with probable partner, Eevee).

On mobile now, will blow up TA's lies soon.

[Eevee]

I wholeheartedly agree with TA's ash-case, but I'd like to see some lynch vs nolynch analysis, this situation with two scum alive is new to me. Do we have any theory guys alive, maybe TA?

Having long-ish nights and practically skipping D2 altogether makes it hard for me to remember what was going on with this game. I think chairs was way more likely than Voltaire to flip scum (I dislike that lynch strooongly still), but chairs is still semi-towny looking for his ultimately credible VT claim.

I don't see why raerae has gotten so many townreads from several people.
Jimmm I think is towny for lack of effort and presence.
Mcmc I lean townier because he has played a game that makes it easy to suspect him.
Liopoil is scummy for being such a null-read.
TA always looks towny to me, but I agree with his ash-case a lot so I'm fine with leaning town on him. If he is scum, ash is most definitely town though (could be a convincing well-built case by scum).
Ash is my preferred lynch for reasons stated before.

[Eevee]

vote: TA for bold faced lies and painting himself into a scum corner (with probable partner, Eevee).

On mobile now, will blow up TA's lies soon.

*popcorn*!

[liopoil]

I wholeheartedly agree with TA's ash-case, but I'd like to see some lynch vs nolynch analysis, this situation with two scum alive is new to me. Do we have any theory guys alive

hi!

we can afford exactly 1 mislynch. this is the case no matter what, no lynching doesn't change anything about that. losing a (single) town member (at night after a no lynch) does not hurt us. what it does do is:

- give our PR another chance to investigate.
- force scum to give us a conf. townie, albeit a dead one. we can't lynch dead townies though! this lowers the number of people we can potentially mislynch.

it can't give our PR fewer nights to investigate either, because if scum kills them after tonight after a no lynch, they would also kill them after a lynch too. in that scenario, either way our PR doesn't get another chance to investigate.



hmmmm, not sure what to make of ash-TA. I will wait for ash to "blow up TA's lies" to make a judgement.

[liopoil]

Is understanding the plan Towny or scummy?

well, it could be scummy if someone clearly completely understood how the plan works but then wasn't sure about lynching nkirbit...

I'd expect a scum who was iffy on the plan to see Nkirbit accumulating a ton of votes regarding the plan, and then want to immediately jump on, actually.

well that too. either way, anyone who acted differently than would be expected.

[ashersky]

Okay, I'm here and will break it all down for you.  In broad strokes:

1)  TA misrepresents and manipulates Day 1 information.  This includes, but is not limited to, his characterization of myself, the opinions of the dead, and his own interactions.
2)  TA has been building up to an ash mislynch since D1, using subterfuge, lies, and bullets.  This includes, but is not limited to, his uncharacteristic tunnelling of me, his choice of nightkills, and his most recent "case" post, which is clearly pre-written before the day started but after he chose to kill Robz.

I'm going to use multiple, concise posts to make my point, as walls of text such as those of scum!TA are tools of scum to force mislynches.  Want to use a bunch of lies to mislynch town?  Surround them with more than 9000 words to soften the blow of the inconsistencies and to discourage close reading and rebuttals.

Luckily, TA chose the wrong townie to try and railroad.  Scum team, kick yourself for not killing me last night.  And then kick yourself again.

[ashersky]

Early on, Ashersky comes in with the opinion that talking about the hider plan is terribly bad, and starts his general anti-town behavior.

I'm going to quote specific lines, instead of the entire more than 9000!  (From here on out, I will refer to TA's case post as the DBZ.)  Here is the opening line of his case explanation, but also the opening movement of his scum symphony to orchestrate my mislynch.

The plan.  We argued about it.  I get it.  Here's how I believe we can break it down.  TA and others suggest Hider plans.  I get into the game, argue vehemently against it.  I fight against it as if it were akin to drowning puppies (it was).  I take it to the next level, offering up myself in lieu of puppies, because I'd rather be out of the game then to watch another puppy be drowned by TA and his friends.

There were, I think, three reactions to this.  1)  This is ridiculous town!ash again.  No way we should vote for him.  2)  This is ridiculously anti-town but still town!ash.  Shut up, dude.  3)  This is brilliantly scheming scum!ash who's finally overplayed his hand in this genius gambit.

UoS, Mcmc, Ash, Shraeye, Eevee, Jimmm, TA, Chairs, and Voltaire all vote Ash at some point, with several players unvoting...

Now, that's a lot of people to vote for one person. But we know that UoS, Shraeye, and Volt were all town, and Ash's vote doesn't really count. That leaves TA, Eevee, Jimmm, and Mcmc...

Here are two lines of interest from the next two paragraphs.  It is here, buried among a lot of nothing, where TA works his manipulation magic.  He lists all players who voted for me, together.  He visually and theoretically puts all nine players in one group.  Then he breaks it down a full seven lines down, pointing out who we now know are town, and who may not yet be.

But that's the extent of the delving he does.  This portion of his DBZ screams "look at all the townies that thought Ash was scum!" when in fact, not all of them did.  Voltaire, easily my biggest detractor on D1 after TA, was unsure of his scum!read by the end of D1.  Shraeye was pretty clearly convinced I was town from the beginning.

He also doesn't mention, AT ALL, the other players in the game, namely Robz and raerae, both of whom were staunchly in my corner.

In sum: TA selectively used the names of our dearly departed in a way to paint me as scummy.  They aren't here to correct him.  TA ignores their opinions and uses their voting records to try and support his scumread on me.  He tied those points back into the plan argument, which was a flashpoint and probably the most vivid memory from D1.  It is misleading and manipulative in nature, which is inherently scummy.

[ashersky]

Now, despite the fact that he claimed to have no problem being the lynch, Ash was still actively scumhunting, and putting suspicion on people who voted him for inadequate reasons. To me, this is NOT the behavior of someone who wanted to get lynched.

I've bolded the ridiculousness for you.  Ash is scumhunting, it means he's scum!  In the immortal words of mail-mi: lolwut?

[Eevee]

Ash, do you think trying to make your point convincing if you really believe in it is scummy? Obviously town who thinks they caught scum wants to make their case look credible.

[ashersky]

In post #379, Nkirbit offers his opinion on the Ash wagon. He offers the opinion that he thinks Ash is probably town, and he finds the people on the wagon suspicious. In post #382, he finds Mcmc and Chairs scummiest for their positions on the Ash wagon. This is interesting, because Nkirbit doesn't attempt to actually individually dissuade anyone's argument. He doesn't take the stance that people on the wagon could be mistakenly casting their votes, and trying to dissuade them (similar to what Robz, a town member, did.) Rather, he goes right to scum hunting among Ash's wagon. This seems too predatory a position, to me. It's asserting that he KNOWS Ash is town, and that there's scum pushing his wagon, rather that it's possible a bunch of mistaken townies, or that Ash really could be scum. That amount of certainty makes sense, given that Nkirbit was scum, and also leads me to believe he was trying to redirect from a scum buddy.

Here, TA tries to use nkirbit to make me scum.  I believe that studying nkirbit's interactions are important, so I get what he's doing.  But he's doing it with the express purpose of painting me as scummy.  I think you can all agree there.

Let's break this down.  nkirbit "thinks Ash is probably town" is not a strike against me, given nkirbit knows who all the town are.  "He finds mcmc and chairs scummiest" for where they are on my wagon?  Where were they on my wagon, anyway?  Oh right, you fail to mention that.  Why?  Because mcmc, in fact, hopped on and off the wagon twice with very little time actually on the wagon.  mcmc's "position" on the wagon is undefined as best, due to voting/unvoting.  In the end, mcmc is another player that gave up his scumread at the time.  But TA here uses "mcmc's position on the wagon" as a way to point to MY scumminess?  How?  Unless mcmc is scum trying to bus, mcmc's actions look like emotional reactions or scum trying to help my wagon along, but neither makes sense if we're partners.

The next bolded bit, well, nkirbit DID KNOW I was town.  From there to end, he makes a great case for why nkirbit is scum.  But we already know that.  He makes the point that nkirbit knows I am town, so he tried to redirect votes away from me, his scum buddy.  That's a ridiculous contradiction, man.  Does he know I'm town, or does he know I'm his buddy?  He can't know both, since they can't both be true.  And he wouldn't fake one or the other, since either one being faked doesn't help his cause.

This is a failagraph.

[ashersky]

Ash, do you think trying to make your point convincing if you really believe in it is scummy? Obviously town who thinks they caught scum wants to make their case look credible.

I get your question, but I think the issue here is trying to "make their case look credible" is the problem.  Town does this by starting at the conclusion, then finding things to support it.  TA decided (a long, long time ago) that I was scum, and has since been finding things to prove his conclusion.  The problem with that is, he is twisting things into it.

Town does that all the time, which I think is your point.  When I'm done refuting TA's case, you'll see why I don't think that's the case here.

[ashersky]

In #602, Ashersky's "want to lynch" list includes, Mcmc, Robz, TA, Volt. 2/4 of these are confirmed town, I personally know that 3/4 are town. Lists Nkirbit right in the middle of the list.

So did scum!ash really list only townies in his list?  Go back through all the games where we do these lists.  Scum puts one partner high on the scum list, the other low.

Also, it was my idea that we all do the lists.  I did it to trap myself?

[Eevee]

In #602, Ashersky's "want to lynch" list includes, Mcmc, Robz, TA, Volt. 2/4 of these are confirmed town, I personally know that 3/4 are town. Lists Nkirbit right in the middle of the list.

So did scum!ash really list only townies in his list?  Go back through all the games where we do these lists.  Scum puts one partner high on the scum list, the other low.

Also, it was my idea that we all do the lists.  I did it to trap myself?

In mean girls we had town reads on all our scum mates all game. That's really a huge null-argument, especially coming from you as you would have been the one to decide to list all town..

[ashersky]

In #774, Ash states that he believes the Chairs lynch is a convenience lynch. In #777, he clarifies, saying that he meant it's an "Easy lynch for scum to push through to save a partner." The obvious implication is that Voltaire could be likely scum. Not scummy in itself, I also firmly believed Chairs to be VT. Yet, with Volt at L-3 and Chairs at L-1, he holds off on voting for Volt. This is the scummy part. If he really felt that strongly about Chairs v. Volt, I think he'd have moved to Voltaire much, much, much more quickly. Yet he waited until Volt was at L-1 to cast the hammer. This reads more like a scum who doesn't care which town lynch goes through rather than a town member waiting (since he had made it very clear how he felt on Voltaire vs. Chairs, and Volt had been in his "would-lynch" category most of the day.

Final explanatory paragraph from TA.  The first bolded line shows how we shared an opinion that chairs is a VT.  He makes clear that portion of this is "not scummy in itself."  The second bold is "the scummy part."  But look at his wording here.  "he'd have moved to Voltaire..." is a manipulation of the facts and a lie.  The implication was that I was on chairs and didn't move to Voltaire soon enough.  The issue here is, I was generally on mcmc or TA for most of the day.

You could argue that he just meant move my vote from wherever it was TO Voltaire.  Right?  No.  Look at the unbolded line before it.  "Yet, with Volt at L-3 and Chairs at L-1, he holds off on voting for Volt."  A different sentence construction, which was accurate when compared to what he used in the "scummy part."  A deliberate adverb change which makes me seem scummy.  This is scum manipulation at its most subtle and best.

Hammering Voltaire, instead of being the L-2 vote, is not scummy.  I don't see in what universe that makes me scum.  I was never voting for Chairs, that was clear.  When I voted for Volt matters only in relation to what else I was trying to accomplish, which was lynching mcmc, or you.  But again, you leave out the context for the sake of strengthening your "case."

[ashersky]

In #602, Ashersky's "want to lynch" list includes, Mcmc, Robz, TA, Volt. 2/4 of these are confirmed town, I personally know that 3/4 are town. Lists Nkirbit right in the middle of the list.

So did scum!ash really list only townies in his list?  Go back through all the games where we do these lists.  Scum puts one partner high on the scum list, the other low.

Also, it was my idea that we all do the lists.  I did it to trap myself?

In mean girls we had town reads on all our scum mates all game. That's really a huge null-argument, especially coming from you as you would have been the one to decide to list all town..

So I pull the exact same move here in back-to-back scum games?  I'm okay with it being null, I mean, my point isn't any stronger than TA's.  But my point is TA's point is weak, but he uses it in his "case" against me.

[Eevee]

In #602, Ashersky's "want to lynch" list includes, Mcmc, Robz, TA, Volt. 2/4 of these are confirmed town, I personally know that 3/4 are town. Lists Nkirbit right in the middle of the list.

So did scum!ash really list only townies in his list?  Go back through all the games where we do these lists.  Scum puts one partner high on the scum list, the other low.

Also, it was my idea that we all do the lists.  I did it to trap myself?

In mean girls we had town reads on all our scum mates all game. That's really a huge null-argument, especially coming from you as you would have been the one to decide to list all town..

So I pull the exact same move here in back-to-back scum games?  I'm okay with it being null, I mean, my point isn't any stronger than TA's.  But my point is TA's point is weak, but he uses it in his "case" against me.

I think that was way more manipulation and lies to make your point seem more credible than anything TA did.

[ashersky]

1) I believe his self-vote to be 100% a scum gambit to gain town reads.
2) I believe Nkirbit defending Ashersky during the wagon was incriminating. Nkirbit was too quick to hunt for scum on Ashersky's wagon. This reads more like scum defending a partner than scum defending a townie. Nkirbit also pushed Chairs, who had been suspected by another play, as an alternative lynch quickly. Nkirbit did not want Ashersky to be getting so much attention.
3) The end of the day. It reads more like scum!Ashersky choosing between two town members than anything else. I believe that if town, Ashersky would have voted Voltaire, who he had in his "would lynch" category, much earlier than he did, to avoid the "convenience lynch" of Chairs. Instead, he ended up waiting for the hammer -- the desperation to avoid a lynch of Chairs was stated, but the actions don't agree with it.

Here is the end of the DBZ, where he sums it all up.

1)  I've pointed out how this is flawed, but at best, it's a personal opinion that you can't back up.  If the self-vote itself is the issue, feel free to go find every game I've ever self-voted.

2)  I've pointed out the flaws in your logic here.  Everything you could find was nkirbit being scum.  Also, this is just asinine.  Your own explanatory points on this showed that you saw nkirbit "knowing I was town" and yet to say it is more likely that was a stupid scumslip ploy to save me?  He either knew I was town or knew I was his partner.  Not both.  Everything you say points to the former.

3)  It was very possible that whoever was voting at the end was choosing between two town members.  But think about this: the choice was ACTUALLY among chairs, Voltaire, and No Lynch.  If we don't have a hammer (and I was the only one NOT voting), the day ends without a lynch.  So hammering town was the unfortunate but required thing there.  Chairs was a VT, Voltaire didn't have time to claim.  I gave it as long as I could.  Rushing it, which you seem to think would have been better, is the scummier action, to me.  But you aer calling me scum for NOT voting early enough.

[ashersky]

In #602, Ashersky's "want to lynch" list includes, Mcmc, Robz, TA, Volt. 2/4 of these are confirmed town, I personally know that 3/4 are town. Lists Nkirbit right in the middle of the list.

So did scum!ash really list only townies in his list?  Go back through all the games where we do these lists.  Scum puts one partner high on the scum list, the other low.

Also, it was my idea that we all do the lists.  I did it to trap myself?

In mean girls we had town reads on all our scum mates all game. That's really a huge null-argument, especially coming from you as you would have been the one to decide to list all town..

So I pull the exact same move here in back-to-back scum games?  I'm okay with it being null, I mean, my point isn't any stronger than TA's.  But my point is TA's point is weak, but he uses it in his "case" against me.

I think that was way more manipulation and lies to make your point seem more credible than anything TA did.

What is the "that" you are referring to?

[ashersky]

So why do I think TA is scum and not incorrect town?

1)  TA has tunnelled me the entire game.  He was the strongest pusher for my death on D1, he opens D3 with a DBZ against me.  He has been remarkably consistent, in fact.  And that is his downfall.  Town!TA's most recognizeable feature is his willingness to rethink things from every angle.  He is not afraid to change a read.  He often has an epiphanic moment where he will change a read from town to scum, or vice versa.  In short, he has rarely, if ever, carried a scum read over three days and done nothing but push that read for the entire game.  TA doesn't tunnel, he scumhunts.  TA has an epic ability to read TOWN members very well.  He may not always catch scum, but I trust his town radar.  The fact that he has consistently and forcefully pushed for my lynch the entire game without even a minute amount of doubt or rethought makes it clear to me that he already knows my alignment.

2)  I believe he's been planning my mislynch since my D1 play.  He was unhappy that I wasn't the lynch on D1.  He was extremely annoyed at my anti-plan stance.  He has ensured that the night kills each night have been pro-Ash townies.  Let me bold that for you.  Scum has killed pro-ash townies every night.  Scum!ash doesn't kill his only supporters off.  I used to hate being mislynched.  Some of you will remember this.  I've come to appreciate scum's need to mislynch townies.  TA's fallen for the same romantic ideal of the "perfectly easy mislynch" that is ashersky.  It is aggravating when it doesn't happen, right?

3)  I believe his DBZ was pre-written before the day started, after he decided to kill Robz.  Pre-writing stuff isn't scummy, of course.  But it fits into the plan he has to get me mislynched.  No one can argue with the point that Robz would have been clearly defending me today.  raerae is still alive, at least.  But it only takes three townies to mislynch me, and assuming raerae is town, if Robz was alive right now, I'm in no danger of death.  The points in the DBZ are manipulatively written and misleading, and use the dead against me.  It tells a tale spun by a weaver of untruths and death.

[ashersky]

we can afford exactly 1 mislynch. this is the case no matter what, no lynching doesn't change anything about that. losing a (single) town member (at night after a no lynch) does not hurt us. what it does do is:

- give our PR another chance to investigate.
- force scum to give us a conf. townie, albeit a dead one. we can't lynch dead townies though! this lowers the number of people we can potentially mislynch.

it can't give our PR fewer nights to investigate either, because if scum kills them after tonight after a no lynch, they would also kill them after a lynch too. in that scenario, either way our PR doesn't get another chance to investigate.

Liopoil is mostly correct here.  I think he has a typo in the last line, though, as he wrote "it can't give our PR fewer nights to investigate either" when I think he was making the (pro-town) point that "it can give..." our PR fewer nights because regardless of what we do today, unless you lynch the PR, scum could still NK the PR.

I will say this: I do not believe the PR should claim today, unless the Det has a guilty result.  Psych results are not reliable here, as the resolution order says the investigation comes after the kill, so it would be negative even if you choce correctly.  The Det guilty result is reliable since the Vig is dead.

I would support a no lynch, if that's the consensus, but remember:

We are currently at 6 vs. 2.  We each have a 2/7 chance of finding scum.  A no lynch + NK makes it 5 vs. 2, upping chances to 1/3 in LYLO.

Consider instead a mislynch today, plus an NK tonight.  That puts us at 4 vs. 2 with a 1/3 chance for each townie to catch scum.

So, both a no lynch and a mislynch results in LYLO tomorrow with a 1/3 chance for each townie.  I guess I'm not super convinced a no lynch helps, when we look at it like that.  Especially because scum won't kill off anyone that's a likely mislynch to help us out.

I think we lynch one of TA or myself today.  Why?  Scum won't kill me, because I'm a town mislynch that's still in the works, even after a No Lynch.  And TA will be alive tomorrow, because he's scum.  (Turn that around, if you are TA or his partner or his supporter -- the point remains).


I flip town, you know to kill TA tomorrow.  TA flips scum, we're in great shape tomorrow.

If TA flips town...not only will I eat nkirbit's hat, I will...PPE: this got morbid so I cut it out.

[Twistedarcher]

Oh yeah posts! I am in no condition to respond as to why ask is completelyyyy wtk g but I will convinc you all why he's scum tomorrow.

But should we no lynxh regardless? I think so?

[ashersky]

Oh yeah posts! I am in no condition to respond as to why ask is completelyyyy wtk g but I will convinc you all why he's scum tomorrow.

But should we no lynxh regardless? I think so?

Can you translate "wtk g"?