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Author Topic: M43: Monsters University Mafia (SK (Delirious Deleuze) Wins!)  (Read 245841 times)

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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 1 Underway!)
« Reply #750 on: May 19, 2014, 11:49:00 am »

Teproc's reads for analysis:

Just reread the thread, so let's do reads.

yuma : Town. Not an IC, but his claim does make him more likely to be town. Mostly he's just been acting very much like town!yuma,
active and constructive.

Axxle : Town. Short posts but actually useful, using his vote aggressively which is good in big games like this, seems like town!Axxle to me. Also he feels different from Adventure Time (scum) and Philosopher's (SK).

Delirious Deleuze : Town. Hasn't posted that much, but has had an open thought process which is hard to replicate as scum, and when he posts he is constructive.

faust: Slight town. He was making sense and being active at the start of the game, which made him one of my early town reads... and then he kinda disappeared, so I'm a little conflicted. Still leaning town though, I guess this is a big game and it's easy to get behind.

AndrewisFTTW : Slight town. I disagree with pretty much every single word he's written in this thread, but he's been contributing and our little fight at the start actually gave me a townread on him.

Archetype: Slight town. He has said very little and needs to step it up, but his two posts sounded townie to me. This is a very weak town read because of the sheer lack of content, but a town read nonetheless.

Robz : Null. I'm pretty annoyed because it seems clear to me that Robz only signed up for this game to keep his streak running...

WW : Slight scum. Very active, which can be hard to do as scum but I'm not remembering a lot of what he's actually done this game. And then there the QT "slip" or whatever which doesnt mean anything in and of itself, but his defense invoking self-meta was fairly scummy.

A Drowned Kernel: Slight scum. I'm used to getting a strong town read on ADK when he is town, and I'm not getting it here. His insistence on the WW QT "slip" also seems like scum!ADK decided to use it to get a mislynch through and he's disappointed to apparently be he only one believing it.

mail-mi : Slight scum. Ok, I know mail-mi is always sheepy, but he takes it to another level in this game. His two votes (on WW then Axxle) are sheeping (first me, then yuma) and his reads post basically has any one who has ever had two votes in this game as a scum read.

jotheonah : On reread, still my preferred lynch. More active that I would expect him to be without having that much actual content, and obviously he overreacted to his wagon which I think is a scum trait. I think I unvoted a while ago, so vote: jotheonah.

TL ; DR => I don't care Robz, I still expect you to read it ! Basically my lynch pool is {jotheonah, mail-mi, ADK, WW, Robz}, with a strong preference for joth.
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Delirious Deleuze

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #751 on: May 19, 2014, 12:13:16 pm »

Mafia didn't use their janitor on yuma, that makes me think he wasn't a mafia kill but rather an sk. Sk makes most sense simce town already has a killing role anyway (desperado).

I like mailmi as a partner for Teproc because of how Teproc approached the day 1 wagons.

vote: Mail mi

Is he the last one in his frat?

How do we know mafia has the janitor ability?

And maybe both mafia and the Sk targeted Yuma?

Could it be another mafia faction? This would really throw a wrench in the equation. I want to say no, given the number of players and the lack of kill d1, but I don't know. It'd make more sense a SK wouldn't kill night one and hide instead so people don't know they're there. Hmm

Let me reread d1 and the interactions between ADK and mail-mi and wither weaver, though idk about analyzing night kills very much.

Three thoughts on this: 

One, why did you suddenly decide to read the interactions between ADK, Mail-Mi, and myself, in response to Axxle thinking Mail-Mi was likely Teproc's partner?  This indicates that you're looking into whether Axxle is correct or not about Mail-Mi, but you're also tossing me in there after previously stating a fairly strong town read.  This strikes me as a little constructed: he's town, okay let me reread him (but in response to comments about someone else and not about me), and then, oh hey he's scum.

Secondly, you made a point of stating how you don't like analyzing night kills, twice in fact.  For one, why don't you like analyzing night kills?  As far as I know, you've only played two games, and both of those you weren't alive for the second day.  So what makes you think analyzing night kills isn't fruitful?  And also, saying you don't like doing this and then going ahead and doing seems like one of those hedgey statements.

Thirdly, you've pointed out twice that there can be two separate mafia/scum teams.  As if you really want us to be thinking about this:

Quote from: Delirious Deleuze
Could it be another mafia faction? This would really throw a wrench in the equation. I want to say no, given the number of players and the lack of kill d1, but I don't know. It'd make more sense a SK wouldn't kill night one and hide instead so people don't know they're there. Hmm

and previously:

So two kills, we have another scum faction, a nightvig, or a SK.

Particularly in the latter one, "scum faction" and "SK" are listed separately.  And it's stated as a question the second time, as if you just thought of the possibility, but you brought it up previously.

1. I reread because someone voted for you and someone voted for mail-mi. Seeing as these were the two scum candidates starting in the day, I figured I should reread. Seeing as teproc was the other scum, thought I'd see how you guys interacted with him.

2. I think that it's pretty arbitrary to analyze night kills. Scum can predict how people react and I just don't think it's solid enough to use. I say this because I thought it was the general consensus not to analyze NKs.

3. Yeah, because this is a tribute game and multiple mafias could exist. Seeing as no one said anything when I first brought it up, I brought it up again.

WW - town, definitely. I don't see why people have suspicion on him. I have found his posts helpful for town, and leading to good content to discuss. Entering day 3 I don't see much suspicion.

Vote: WW

He is definitely scum. I implore y'all to go reread his interactions with Teproc. Teproc leads a wagon on him and then switches it without a lot of analysis of Witherweaver and never brings the focus back on him after switching the wagon. It seems like a great way to push the "he was lynched and I lead the charge, I'm town Lololol." Card.

This is super weird, not sure what to make of it. I think scum hopping a wagon is more likely than town making a whole turnaround.

Yeah, because I reread. I did provide analysis behind my vote.
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Witherweaver

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #752 on: May 19, 2014, 12:20:26 pm »

Yes, someone voted for me and someone voted for Mail-Mi.  But in response to someone voting for me, you said I was very towny.  In response to someone voting for Mail-Mi, you said you'd reread me.  It just kind of seems like a setup to justify future changing of minds.

Anyway, do you think there are two different "mafia teams" here?
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Delirious Deleuze

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #753 on: May 19, 2014, 12:54:22 pm »

Yes, someone voted for me and someone voted for Mail-Mi.  But in response to someone voting for me, you said I was very towny.  In response to someone voting for Mail-Mi, you said you'd reread me.  It just kind of seems like a setup to justify future changing of minds.

Anyway, do you think there are two different "mafia teams" here?

Yeah, I changed my mind because I reread because I wanted to be informed....?

And no, I think it's a SK and a mafia team, but I wanted to entertain the possibility. I think the lack of 2 kills night one show that there either role blocking (which no one has claimed) or more likely a SK and a scum team, with a SK wanting to hide. I just wanted to question what if.
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Witherweaver

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #754 on: May 19, 2014, 01:16:42 pm »

Yes, someone voted for me and someone voted for Mail-Mi.  But in response to someone voting for me, you said I was very towny.  In response to someone voting for Mail-Mi, you said you'd reread me.  It just kind of seems like a setup to justify future changing of minds.

Anyway, do you think there are two different "mafia teams" here?

Yeah, I changed my mind because I reread because I wanted to be informed....?

And no, I think it's a SK and a mafia team, but I wanted to entertain the possibility. I think the lack of 2 kills night one show that there either role blocking (which no one has claimed) or more likely a SK and a scum team, with a SK wanting to hide. I just wanted to question what if.

Hm.. is SK hiding a thing?  From what I've gathered from other games, mafia tends to worry about SK, SK tends to worry about balance (which usually makes them want to hunt mafia), and town tends to worry about mafia first and SK later.  I'm not sure if choosing not to shoot is in the best interest of an SK.  Anyone know of precedents? 

There could have been two shots night 1, where either both were against Yuma or the other target was doctored. 
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #755 on: May 19, 2014, 01:23:22 pm »

SK hiding is most definitely not a thing. There are a number of reasons why there was no second kill N1 but what's important now is rereadng and scumhunting/SK hunting.
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Delirious Deleuze

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #756 on: May 19, 2014, 01:42:06 pm »

SK hiding is most definitely not a thing. There are a number of reasons why there was no second kill N1 but what's important now is rereadng and scumhunting/SK hunting.

I've been rereading and scum hunting, but after rereading the forum in regard to teproc being scum here are my new reads (re-iterating what I said above.)

If we conclude there's a 3 person mafia team and a SK, then my reads are:

Town (6) - From towniest to least:

EFHW/Chairs/me

Andrew - He's been pretty constructive and I haven't got a scum read on any of his posts.

Axxle - Town but weird

Archetype - I'm getting a town vibe, but I have the least strong read here.


Scum/SK (3) - From least scummy to most:

mail-mi - Lurky and pretty absent - I don't think his interactions with ADK were super telling. I think he's more scummy than the rest because of his absence.

Faust - scum. He's definitely acting like he's been scum. He says he'll focus more on this game in a bit, but I'm still feeling scummy. His first response to me

WW - town, definitely. I don't see why people have suspicion on him. I have found his posts helpful for town, and leading to good content to discuss. Entering day 3 I don't see much suspicion.

Vote: WW

He is definitely scum. I implore y'all to go reread his interactions with Teproc. Teproc leads a wagon on him and then switches it without a lot of analysis of Witherweaver and never brings the focus back on him after switching the wagon. It seems like a great way to push the "he was lynched and I lead the charge, I'm town Lololol." Card.

This is super weird, not sure what to make of it. I think scum hopping a wagon is more likely than town making a whole turnaround.

This post gives me the OMGYS vibe, a bit. Nonetheless, he's still huge on my scum read.

WW - After rereading all his posts, especially those where teproc is mentioned, I am sure he's scum. His interactions and reads vis-a-vis teproc seem super constructed and phoney. They were keeping enough distance between each other to not draw a relationship, always having slight scum or full scum reads on each other before shifting. Now that i've called WW out his responses seem more townie, but throughout the beginning of the game, he definitely feels scummy to me.
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Witherweaver

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #757 on: May 19, 2014, 02:09:51 pm »

SK hiding is most definitely not a thing. There are a number of reasons why there was no second kill N1 but what's important now is rereadng and scumhunting/SK hunting.

Vote: Mail-Mi

Agreed that we need to be hunting.  I think Mail-Mi is still the scummiest.  I still think he was the best target from his play Day 1, and at the end of day 1 Teproc is strongly trying to push for a Joth lynch while mainting a "Mail-Mi could be scum":

To be clear : I do think mail-mi has a good chance to be scum, almost as much as joth.

But the fact that he got the prize (I knew it because we're in the same frat, along with Robz and yuma), was what made me reluctant. If people want t switch back to joth because of that I'm willing of course.

Teproc had switched from Joth to Mail-Mi when it didn't look like a Joth lynch was going to go through, but Teproc knew that Mail-Mi had the prize.  He also knew that Mail-Mi would likely claim this and cause people to back off.  Teproc can then feel a little safer about putting Mail-Mi at L-1.  If you look at Teproc's posts before the one I linked (going back about a page), I get the impression that he knew how it was going to play out.

The other additional point against Mail-Mi is this: Mail-Mi initially jumped on a vote against me when ADK brought up his original case, which depended on something I said in the QT.  We weren't allowed to quote the QT.  This was early day 1.  Mail-Mi then got an object which let him spy on another QT.  However, he did not choose mine, and instead chose the other house.  If he really thought there was something to the original case (which if he voted as town he should have), I think it would have made the most sense to go and read and decide for himself if it really was scummy.  This seems like it would have been a very natural use of the prize for someone that is town.  He could have chosen the other QT because he has a partner in mine, so he already has some inside knowledge on what's going on there.

PPE: DeDe.  Can you point out where I had a "slight scum read on Teproc before shifting"?  I don't think this is the case.  I had a null read until my full reread right before the deadline, where I found reason to believe that Teproc could be scum.  I don't know what interactions and reads regarding Teproc you think are phony, either.  I think your facts here are just wrong.   
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mail-mi

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #758 on: May 19, 2014, 04:18:15 pm »

Also Robz, if you're reading this, I think the best course of action for you is do not win the challenge. mail-mi will get to decide on his own what to do with the prize, and that's no good.
Hey!
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

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ashersky

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #759 on: May 19, 2014, 06:45:43 pm »

Vote Count 3.2:

WW (2):  Andrew, DD
mail-mi (2):  Axxle, WW

Not Voting (5):  EFHW, chairs, Archetype, mail-mi, faust

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on May 26 at 7:00 p.m.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #760 on: May 19, 2014, 11:59:02 pm »

Ok. I reread the thread.

Reads
Andrew - Has the same easy-going ness sort of vibe I got from jotheonah early game. Not super strong read, but there are much better choices for lynches.

DD - Leaning town. He tried really hard for the prize, and so did Teproc. On one hand, he could be scum for trying to maximize the chance that they would get it. On the other hand, why would scum contest against his partner? Hmm but they did give it to Yuma. Maybe they just wanted it out of the game? I'll still stand by my townread.


Axxle - Leaning scum. He had that weird obsession with Yuma shooting immediatly. But that's, like, too bold as scum. But it's Axxle, so I wouldn't be surprised if he'd do that.

Witherweaver - Tough call. I think Town. He didn't try for the prize either. ICs, what do you think Teproc's possible partners were doing in the other houses while he fought for the prize? That'll help shed some light on this

ADK - Same thing as WW, but slightly Townier.

Mail-mi: Leaning scum. This isn't too bad of a choice either. There's that D-1 case on him which I thought was quite good, and Teproc wavered on it a little. General lurkiness too.

Faust: town. Though if it weren't for that one post, I'd probably be slight scum on him. But I usually find him scummy anyway.

I'll Vote: mail-mi.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #761 on: May 20, 2014, 12:11:59 am »

Upon further reading, I'm getting a big townread on ADK. There was one post that really screamed "ADK is Town". I'll see if I can find it.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #762 on: May 20, 2014, 12:14:05 am »

A Drowned Kernel, the Vanilla Monster, has been killed!

Found it.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #763 on: May 20, 2014, 12:15:02 am »

Love it.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #764 on: May 20, 2014, 12:26:31 am »

Okay, well.. I don't see Arch constructing that "slip", so I'd say he isn't responsible for ADK.  Not sure what that says about his likelihood of being involved with Robz.  I would think that if he performed any night kill he'd pay pretty close attention to the resolution message.  So I'd say town, except that him knowing Robz was killed means he at least saw it.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #765 on: May 20, 2014, 12:44:42 am »

In regards to the prize, I did try to solve the puzzle, but I was still on vacation and couldn't put a lot of time into it.  ADK tried to help solve it as well, and he was town.  I think DeDe genuinely wanted to figure it out for curiosity/solving a puzzle/just winning the challenge sake, not so much for the prize.  I know I wasn't really thinking about the prize, I just wanted to see if we could figure it out.

Also, according to Robz, Yuma tried for the prize as well.  I don't think it's an indication here.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #766 on: May 20, 2014, 01:42:43 am »

Scum/SK (3) - From least scummy to most:

Just want to point out, this is not a good way of thinking about stuff. What you're looking for to find a SK is very different than what you're looking for to find a mafia member. So putting these two in the same category is not good. Now I'd be perfectly fine if you just left SK reads out, because it's not sure we have one, but don't just throw them in with your other scum reads.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #767 on: May 20, 2014, 01:47:34 am »

Okay, well.. I don't see Arch constructing that "slip", so I'd say he isn't responsible for ADK.  Not sure what that says about his likelihood of being involved with Robz.  I would think that if he performed any night kill he'd pay pretty close attention to the resolution message.  So I'd say town, except that him knowing Robz was killed means he at least saw it.

I agree. I think we can take from this that Arch isn't part of the ADK kill. But I think in regard to how likely he is part of the other team (killing Robz), I think a bit more. Mafia wouldn't look so hard at the flips, they already know who probably died. In the end, this adds up to a zero change of my read on Arch, which is slight town.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #768 on: May 20, 2014, 01:51:20 am »

Considering wagons, I don't like the WW wagon much because of the people that are on it, and because it seems a "convenient" lynch. I don't like a mail-mi lynch because that's just too easy, and such an easy mislynch, even though I trust the players voting for him more. So I'll start my own wagon.

Vote: DeDe

His turnaround is really strange and weakly explained. Just rereading never got me from turning a "definite" townread into a "definite" scumread.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #769 on: May 20, 2014, 01:53:25 am »

Slight suspicion of those who joined the Teproc wagon yesterday, btw. I think scum would want to be on it, for the cred. That's DeDe, mail-mi, Axxle, me.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #770 on: May 20, 2014, 01:54:31 am »

Vote Count 3.3:

WW (2):  Andrew, DD
mail-mi (3):  Axxle, WW, Archetype
DD (1):  faust

Not Voting (3):  EFHW, chairs, mail-mi

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on May 26 at 7:00 p.m.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2014, 04:25:33 pm by ashersky »
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #771 on: May 20, 2014, 01:56:45 am »

Just FYI, my match against AI is scheduled for thursday afternoon, please don't hammer before that.
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #772 on: May 20, 2014, 02:06:43 pm »

Considering wagons, I don't like the WW wagon much because of the people that are on it, and because it seems a "convenient" lynch. I don't like a mail-mi lynch because that's just too easy, and such an easy mislynch, even though I trust the players voting for him more. So I'll start my own wagon.

Vote: DeDe

His turnaround is really strange and weakly explained. Just rereading never got me from turning a "definite" townread into a "definite" scumread.

Does this (using "mislynch") imply that you think Mail-Mi is town?
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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #773 on: May 20, 2014, 02:07:28 pm »

Vote Count 3.3:

WW (2):  Andrew, DD
mail-mi (3):  Axxle, WW, mail-mi
DD (1):  faust

Not Voting (4):  EFHW, chairs, Archetype, mail-mi

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on May 26 at 7:00 p.m.


The third person voting for Mail-Mi is Archetype, not Mail-Mi.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: MXLIII: Monsters University Mafia (Day 3 Underway!)
« Reply #774 on: May 20, 2014, 02:16:46 pm »

I'm so conflicted right now. I get what faust is saying about mail-mi often being a mislynch and I guess the case on WW isn't so strong. I'll point everyone back to my case on DD and

vote: DD
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10
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