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Author Topic: M126: Game Over, Town Wins!  (Read 114073 times)

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Dylan32

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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #500 on: April 22, 2020, 05:00:34 pm »

Dylan - What was your read on Joseph before you got your result back?

I thought he was scummier than the two other wagons that were leading D1, which is why at post #301 I made a small case looking at his play and voted for him.  I was the 2nd person on the wagon behind only yourself, and then a wagon formed on him.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #501 on: April 22, 2020, 05:01:11 pm »

And sorry, I guess I misremembered how long ago you had said that.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #502 on: April 22, 2020, 05:02:41 pm »

Sure, but the alternative there is that of we mislynch raptor, we'll still have the doc as the UB.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #503 on: April 22, 2020, 05:06:27 pm »

Sure, but the alternative there is that of we mislynch raptor, we'll still have the doc as the UB.

right, fair. My point was more supposed to be focused on the fact that he CLAIMED it. Not how it would ACTUALLY play out.
Does that make sense? Like I feel like skum would claim to of used the shot.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #504 on: April 22, 2020, 05:06:41 pm »

Raptor - you wanna like... weigh in here somewhere?
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #505 on: April 22, 2020, 05:07:59 pm »

I have only played a few games with Dylan - is it likely he would think of faking that townslip?
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #506 on: April 22, 2020, 05:10:43 pm »

Raptor - you wanna like... weigh in here somewhere?

Right?
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Dylan32

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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #507 on: April 22, 2020, 05:11:16 pm »

I'm willing to engage in good faith that you aren't scum here, so...

also people go ahead and weigh in on this theory please...

Raptor claim to NOT of used his shot.
There is a UB in the game.
That essentially makes Raptor the "safe lynch" in the world where we lynch one today and find skum tomorrow if we are wrong.

This is to say, it invites the obvious concept of lynching raptor... UB gets 1 shot doc ... They use it on whoever they like or not whatever... but skum has no idea who has it.
I believe that skum in this spot would claimed to of used the shot on (just saying) myself last night and they do not have a shot left, giving us less incentive to lynch them today.

If you are wrong about your reads (a given from my perspective, but I digress), then I doubt scum would have been even really thinking you were an obvious lynch target, and so wouldn't have thought out what you think they should have done.

The thing I find harder to believe is town!Raptor holding his doctor shot with a claimed cop out there N1.  Like, if there wasn't a claim, I get holding the shot for a day, but the cop claim is as good a target as you're going to find unless you just straight up think the person is lying.  I think scum!raptor just didn't think through what he actually would have done as a 1-shot doc before he claimed.

ppe 5 distracted by food mid-post
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #508 on: April 22, 2020, 05:13:32 pm »

Yuma, Asher...why the votes for MiX?
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #509 on: April 22, 2020, 05:26:27 pm »

also people go ahead and weigh in on this theory please...

Raptor claim to NOT of used his shot.
There is a UB in the game.
That essentially makes Raptor the "safe lynch" in the world where we lynch one today and find skum tomorrow if we are wrong.

This is to say, it invites the obvious concept of lynching raptor... UB gets 1 shot doc ... They use it on whoever they like or not whatever... but skum has no idea who has it.
I believe that skum in this spot would claimed to of used the shot on (just saying) myself last night and they do not have a shot left, giving us less incentive to lynch them today.

Scum isn't perfect. Regardless of who is scum, they have clearly not played perfectly. Assuming this is crazy. For all we know that's exactly what scum wanted you to think.

I have only played a few games with Dylan - is it likely he would think of faking that townslip?

...what townslip?
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #510 on: April 22, 2020, 06:47:27 pm »

I'm willing to engage in good faith that you aren't scum here, so...

also people go ahead and weigh in on this theory please...

Raptor claim to NOT of used his shot.
There is a UB in the game.
That essentially makes Raptor the "safe lynch" in the world where we lynch one today and find skum tomorrow if we are wrong.

This is to say, it invites the obvious concept of lynching raptor... UB gets 1 shot doc ... They use it on whoever they like or not whatever... but skum has no idea who has it.
I believe that skum in this spot would claimed to of used the shot on (just saying) myself last night and they do not have a shot left, giving us less incentive to lynch them today.

If you are wrong about your reads (a given from my perspective, but I digress), then I doubt scum would have been even really thinking you were an obvious lynch target, and so wouldn't have thought out what you think they should have done.

The thing I find harder to believe is town!Raptor holding his doctor shot with a claimed cop out there N1.  Like, if there wasn't a claim, I get holding the shot for a day, but the cop claim is as good a target as you're going to find unless you just straight up think the person is lying.  I think scum!raptor just didn't think through what he actually would have done as a 1-shot doc before he claimed.

ppe 5 distracted by food mid-post

hmm. that is a decent enough point.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #511 on: April 22, 2020, 06:48:27 pm »

also people go ahead and weigh in on this theory please...

Raptor claim to NOT of used his shot.
There is a UB in the game.
That essentially makes Raptor the "safe lynch" in the world where we lynch one today and find skum tomorrow if we are wrong.

This is to say, it invites the obvious concept of lynching raptor... UB gets 1 shot doc ... They use it on whoever they like or not whatever... but skum has no idea who has it.
I believe that skum in this spot would claimed to of used the shot on (just saying) myself last night and they do not have a shot left, giving us less incentive to lynch them today.

Scum isn't perfect. Regardless of who is scum, they have clearly not played perfectly. Assuming this is crazy. For all we know that's exactly what scum wanted you to think.

I have only played a few games with Dylan - is it likely he would think of faking that townslip?

...what townslip?

messed up when I came after him.
If I came after him yesterday, which I didn't, it would mean it dictated skums choice. but I didn't and if he were skum that would be fresh in the mind. so either actual oversight, or a fake slip.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #512 on: April 22, 2020, 06:51:49 pm »

unvote
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #513 on: April 22, 2020, 06:54:13 pm »

I have only played a few games with Dylan - is it likely he would think of faking that townslip?

...what townslip?

messed up when I came after him.
If I came after him yesterday, which I didn't, it would mean it dictated skums choice. but I didn't and if he were skum that would be fresh in the mind. so either actual oversight, or a fake slip.

Ah, then no, I don't think Dylan would think about creating that. He can be scum that confused you with someone else, but I don't think he would think about doing this on purpose.

unvote

Yay!
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #514 on: April 22, 2020, 07:44:50 pm »

There is one other thing.

If the roll is 5Ts - Skum is given a choice of assigning BP to a Goon or they can reject it.
If the roll is 6Ts - Skum is RANDOMLY assigned a BP. As in they do not get a choice.

That would be important here because if they were randomly assigned BP, they would know that there are ZERO Town PRs in the game. Whereas if they chose yes or no for BP, they would know there is one. So... not that I am super advocating it at this point - but there is a world in which both of them are skum. I... don't really have a realistic scenario in how they get to this point... so it is probably unlikely, but I want it said.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #515 on: April 22, 2020, 07:54:23 pm »

There is one other thing.

If the roll is 5Ts - Skum is given a choice of assigning BP to a Goon or they can reject it.
If the roll is 6Ts - Skum is RANDOMLY assigned a BP. As in they do not get a choice.

That would be important here because if they were randomly assigned BP, they would know that there are ZERO Town PRs in the game. Whereas if they chose yes or no for BP, they would know there is one. So... not that I am super advocating it at this point - but there is a world in which both of them are skum. I... don't really have a realistic scenario in how they get to this point... so it is probably unlikely, but I want it said.

This is incorrect, the randomly forced BP is at 0Ts, not 6.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #516 on: April 22, 2020, 08:04:28 pm »

OK more importantly. There are 4 options here:

1) Lynch Dylan, they are Town: Skum kills at night. We lynch Raptor tomorrow. Down 2 town, 1 Skum. UB gets nothing.

2) Lynch Dylan, they are Skum: Skum *probably* kills Raptor at night. Down 1 Town, 1 Skum. UB gets Doc Shot or Raptor is alive the next day. (yes, I am coaching. If that happens - Raptor 100% should NOT shoot at night. It gives us a GTD. Even if they shoot off of him and hit UB Raptor is then alive).

3) Lynch Raptor, they are Town: Skum kills at night. We lynch Dylan. Down 2 town, 1 Skum. UB gets 1 shot Doc.

4) Lynch Raptor, they are Skum: Skum kills Dylan at night. Down 1 Town, 1 Skum. UB gets nothing.


So from a mathematical approach...
- #1 and #3 share the same outcome, except that by lynching Raptor (#3) we get the shot to UB.
- #2 and #4 share the same outcome, except that by lynching Dylan (#2) UB gets a shot if Raptor doesn't use it.

#1 we lynch town and UB gets nadda
#2 we lynch skum and UB gets doc shot
#3 we lynch town and UB gets doc shot
#4 we lynch skum and UB gets nadda


If we lynch Dylan either they are skum AND we still have the Doc shot in play.. or they are Town and there is no upside outside of that which exists in every scenario.
If we lynch Raptor either they are skum and we don't have the doc shot (bc it never existed) or we lynch town and the UB gets the Doc Shot.

Hedge logic would dictate we lynch Raptor here.

IDK what to say other than that. Unless they are both skum, one of them made a mistake. It happens, but it is hard from the outside to decide who that is. So I vote we go with math. Again, Holding off on presenting the option for a quick hammer, but consider my a Raptor vote at this point.


PPE Mix - You are correct I misread. So there is now essentially a 0% chance in my mind they are both skum, so my post here I stand by even more.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #517 on: April 22, 2020, 08:10:55 pm »

Raptor - you wanna like... weigh in here somewhere?

Catching up on what exactly is going on.

Vote: Dylan I know what I am. Dylan must be scum, unless he lied for some reason. I'm sorry team for flopping on the D1 hammer.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #518 on: April 22, 2020, 08:55:47 pm »

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #519 on: April 22, 2020, 08:58:27 pm »

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.

How about, when are you right about me. Not this game at least.

Also you're exactly the person that would NK faust when he died.
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Dylan32

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Re: M126: Day One is the Loneliest Day That You'll Ever Know
« Reply #520 on: April 22, 2020, 09:04:18 pm »

So instead of just going with which of the two of us makes more sense to lynch, I thought I'd actually build a more normal case so that people can feel good about lynching him first rather than just "well it makes more strategic sense to lynch raptor first."

Same old D1 schmooze.. I don't think that we are going to claim today. I'm very intrigued by shraeye cop claim thing, so i kinda want to see how that plays out.

Vote: Faust

Catching up in the next few hours!
Empty promises.

You are incorrect good sir, guess we just have different definitions of a few..
jk yeah I totally lost track of time.

His reaction to the claim seems weird, but at the very least, there's no real suggestion of doubt that would suggest he wouldn't use a doc shot on him if other people seemed to buy the claim.  Also, wants faust lynched.

I don't really want to lynch WCD but down to if we need to push it through at deadline.

MIX and Swan are not playing like themselves. Mix is playing way more towny then he normally does, so I don't know what to make of that. Swan is coming off scummy to but he just does that when he talks sometime.


 Faust and swan would be my top pics, I would settle for WCD or Mix today.

Again, wants faust gone.  Has made a point twice to say they'd be ok with WCD.

I don't really want to lynch WCD but down to if we need to push it through at deadline.

MIX and Swan are not playing like themselves. Mix is playing way more towny then he normally does, so I don't know what to make of that. Swan is coming off scummy to but he just does that when he talks sometime.


 Faust and swan would be my top pics, I would settle for WCD or Mix today.

Why faust and Swan as your top 2?

Gut feeling, both seem to be playing abnormal / don't like their arguments.

convince me to vote WCD.

Builds on the previous point, puts the onus on someone else to build a case on a lynch candidate for him instead of trying to read himself.  I don't know how much raptor has played as scum, but it seems like it is easier to coast as scum since you know alignments and just wait for other people to build cases. Obviously experienced scum should be better at faking cases, but based on other mistakes in play this game, I think it's fair to guess that raptor fell into that here.

Probably time to start narrowing the Lynch pool. LL and WCD lead the count with 3 votes, Faust with 2, Swan, Cayvie and Joseph all with 1 vote. Someone could double check me.

Unless I'm in total disagreement I think that we should focus on LL, WCD and Faust. I'm up for making a last ditch effort on someone but with 12? hours, it needs to happen now. Let me know your guys thoughts!

One of his two top candidates are one of his own 3 finalists, and yet raptor tries to make himself seem protown by being willing to look elsewhere to get a lynch through instead of trying to actually push faust's wagon.

I totally understand why I am on the chopping block. It was an honest mistake that I did not hammer on day 1. I really did just loose track of time, i was an hour off of when i thought deadline was. I was not around on open of D2 because it was my IRL bday so wasn't around. I had no problem hammering Joseph, he was not my top but that is not why I didn't hammer.

I honestly rather look at everyone else who wasn't on him end of D1. I understand that some people weren't online, but I feel like I am just the easy scapegoat for scum. I understand that everyone has to to what what they feel is right, but i ask that we at least look at other options before i get lynched.
 
PPE 3

I'm even willing to grant that raptor did just mess the time up, and that's why he missed the hammer.  However, he asked when the deadline was. roughly 45 minutes and 3 or 4 posts later there was an official vote count with deadline info.  Intent to hammer came 2 posts and about 6 minutes after that.  10 minutes later:

ok


I was giving it 15/20 min to see if Joseph was around to claim or say something

aka giving Joseph a chance to defend himself to try to steer the wagon somewhere else. There was no real point to delay hammering after this point anyway, because there wasn't enough time left to go anywhere else.

Faust being the nk would be consistent with raptor being a little worried about faust's reputation for scum hunting (and seeing faust hammer Joseph fairly quickly could have fed that a little).

But another point, this is most of his game. Even if you don't think my comments are a good case (probably at least not as good as the one on Joseph), this is pretty much raptor's whole game up until the claim. For the sake of argument, if you lynch him first and he's town, you aren't honestly losing that much since the UB is still hidden and gets the doc shot. If you lynch me first, from a PR standpoint you aren't losing anything anymore, but I would like to think I've been a fairly active player that was a big part of the reason the wagon formed on Joseph in the first place, and if raptor flips scum first, I would think I'd be as close to IC as you can get without a true result on me having been on the right end of confrontations with 2 scum, so I'm probably going to eventually soak up an NK, giving you more time to find the 3rd scum if we don't get them tomorrow.

ppe at least 4, got called outside to help with the doge.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #521 on: April 22, 2020, 09:06:42 pm »

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.
Mix dylan
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #522 on: April 22, 2020, 09:08:19 pm »

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.

I'm curious why you think MiX + raptor is a possibility? Because that would mean MiX is driving an extremely hard bus on his only remaining partner.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #523 on: April 22, 2020, 09:10:05 pm »

This may be backward or stream of consciousness, so feel free to just ask for clarification.

I quoted MiX's post when I voted.  There are two issues inherent in that post that are problematic and triggered my spidey-sense.

1) As has by now been pointed out by others, MiX clearly lied about the possibilities regarding the setup.
2) The by far most likely reasoning for A is that MiX was coming from a scum perspective that needed that false understanding of the setup to be accepted/true for the gambit to work.

I'll explain those shortly, but the gambit itself: manipulate the situation to ensure an extra day of survival for one of the remaining two scum players who was likely to be lynched, namely Dylan or raptor.

Why was this important?  Well, raptor for the failed hammer after intent on D1 of a flipped scum player.  Dylan for the claim on D2.  The various levels of scumminess/towniness of these events are for each player to decide.

Raptor: could be honest that he forgot, missed the deadline, etc.  We've all done it.  Could have been a partner not wanting to bus hammer on D1, although the price to be paid would not be worth it (in my opinion).
Dylan: could be honest and caught scum, yay!  Could be scum ploy to buy cred given what happened on D1.  Other players have provided reasoning on this (shraeye killed while Dylan not, etc.).  This post is about MiX though.

So, anyway, short description of why a gambit occurred.

Back to MiX.  It's clear to me that this day has been dominated by MiX's start to the day.  He calls for claims, he declares the setup, etc.  Generally, this reads to me as premeditated, planned at night, for a purpose.  It's built around finding the next lynch -- I believe because he already knows that there will be a counterclaim to Dylan.  We saw the goon flip.  The most likely scenario then, is no more claims, IF Dylan is telling the truth.  As has been pointed out, what benefit comes from a fake counterclaim when it only buys you a 1v1 at best?  We have the numbers, so giving up a mislynch isn't so bad. 

Yet MiX's post definitely read like he was basically inviting the counterclaim to Dylan.  "The setup must be X so there can't be a counterclaim so counterclaim already so my plan can run its course!!!"  That's scummy.

Back to A above -- MiX forcefully presents false/misleading information about the possibilities of the setup BECAUSE he already knows the fakeclaim in play.  This strongly points to Dylan's claim being fake.  MiX only considers the one PR setup because they've already played that hand, so he forgets to consider all actually possibilities.  It helps that shraeye played into his thinking earlier, then they committed to the plan.  This is the scumslip, in my opinion, because scum do this all time.  They build a false world in which they play townie, try to spread that world view onto the rest to make themselves look townie.  But they forget that there is also a reality out there.

I feel like this is getting long.  I'll try to summarize my feeling: MiX entered today with a plan.  That plan was to force a counterclaim for his team's fake claimant.  That plan was predicated on the fake claim of one scum player, which means one PR, and in building the plan, slipped on including all possibilities.
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Re: M126: Day Three's a Crowd
« Reply #524 on: April 22, 2020, 09:12:42 pm »

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.

I'm curious why you think MiX + raptor is a possibility? Because that would mean MiX is driving an extremely hard bus on his only remaining partner.

Getting to that.

Given my strong read on MiX's actions, if you want to argue that Dylan is town, the entire plan works with have pre-planned raptor counterclaiming Dylan.  Again, I don't think that's a good plan -- the Dylan claiming on D2 plan is the better of the scum lie plans -- but it is technically possible. 

The hard bus is just as likely to backfire (which is what he wants) as it is to work.  It's not like he's being that convincing.  You are doing a better job of making a case against raptor, which is good for you if you are town or scum.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
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