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Author Topic: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (jotheonah wins!)  (Read 7874 times)

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Archetype

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Conspiracy I: Is there one? (jotheonah wins!)
« on: March 26, 2013, 11:49:12 am »

Conspiracy!

If you have no idea what I’m talking about, go here.

Player List!

Mod: Archetype
1. Tables
2. mcmcsalot
3. eHalcyon
4. Eevee
5. Ozle
6. TINAS
7. jotheonah

Conspiracy Rule Set

11 easy rules

1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind, UNLESS GIVEN MOD PERMISSION.  Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.

2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings. Potential members of the conspiracy will know about each other before the game starts, but will not be able to talk.
3. Yes/No Guesses are due before 5 minutes after the Discussion deadline have elapsed.
4. The entirety of the talking phase of this game will take place within a 1 hour session.
5. Do not edit or delete posts.  We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
6. Bold, blue, red, green colored or otherwise modified text is reserved for the Mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
7. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
8. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
9. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
10. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including removal from the game. Breaking any of these rules, especially number one, has the potential to completely ruin the game.

…and the most important…

The Golden Rule:


11. Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2013, 02:51:40 pm by Archetype »
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Archetype

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one?
« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2013, 11:54:33 am »

For those who haven’t played before (including me) here’s how the game will work:

There are two possible scenarios in the game:


1.   All players are ‘Innocent’
2.   All players are ‘Conspirators’ and 1 player is ‘Innocent’

These chances are broken into percentages:


1.     12.5% All Innocent
2.     87.5% Conspiracy
    • 12.5% against Tables
    • 12.5% against mcmcsalot
    • 12.5% against eHalcyon
    • 12.5% against Eevee
    • 12.5% against Ozle
    • 12.5% against TINAS
    • 12.5% against jotheonah


But what do these titles mean?


Anyone who is a Conspirator is trying to cover up their existence while those who are Innocent are trying to figure out which of the two situations the game is. To figure this out, this game is broken into three phases.

Deciding Phase:

This phase will last no longer than 10 minutes and will begin at 1 PM forum time. Based on the percentages, I’ll decide which scenario we are playing. I’ll PM out every player’s alignment and tell potential conspirators whoever their partners are (or, I guess whoever the Innocent player is). Then the game actually starts.

Discussion Phase:

This phase lasts at most 1 hour and will begin as soon as the Deciding Phase is over. During this phase players can say whatever they want as long as they aren’t breaking any of the above rules. Throw some accusations around, Conspirators will try to trick people, Innocents will try and watch behavior, etc.

I am adding another layer of intrigue. During the Discussion Phase, players can PM me that they want to end the phase early. Once a majority of the people playing have PM’d that they want to end the phase early, the Discussion phase will immediately end and it will become the Deduction phase.

End Phase Votes will never be shown in thread, ever. I’ll just be privately tallying them. You can retract your vote at anytime up until the ‘End Phase Votecount’ has been locked.

Deduction Phase:

This phase lasts 5 minutes and will begin as soon as the Discussion Phase ends. Each Innocent Player must PM me a yes/no answer to the question Is there a Conspiracy?

Conspirators may do this too, but their vote won’t count. This phase will end once every Innocent player has sent in an answer or the five minutes have elapsed. Whichever comes first. Players who don’t get their answers in by the five minute deadline will not have their votes counted (but I will be pretty flexible).


An Innocent Player will win if they guess ‘No Conspiracy’ and everyone is Innocent or ‘A Conspiracy’ and there is a Conspiracy.

Conspirators will win if the Innocent player guesses ‘No Conspiracy’.

Archetype will win if all Innocent players guess 'A Conspiracy' and there is none.

Thread is locked until 1 PM.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2013, 11:58:35 am by Archetype »
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Archetype

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Game kicks off at 1 PM)
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2013, 12:19:10 pm »

Role PMs:


Innocent(s):

Quote
The government is on the brink of collapsing. Is it of your doing? Of course not! You’re Innocent! Could it be an internal Conspiracy, or is the government really that bad?

During the Deduction phase you must PM me a yes/no answer to the question there a Conspiracy?[ Additionally, you may PM me at anytime during the Discussion Phase to let me know that you want to end the Discussion Phase.

You win if your answer to the question is correct.

Potential Conspirators:


Quote
Seems like destroying the government from the inside has been a success and there’s only one person that is considering it sabotage. As a Conspirator, you better cover up your existence in this whole mess.

Everyone in this game besides, [Insert Innocent player here] is a member of the Conspiracy. Your job is to work together to cover up your existence from [Insert Innocent player here]. Additionally, you may PM me at anytime during the Discussion Phase to let me know that you want to end the Discussion Phase.

You win if the Innocent player guesses incorrectly on their question.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2013, 12:27:14 pm by Archetype »
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Archetype

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Confirm your PMs!)
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2013, 01:11:54 pm »

PMs are all out.

Reply confirming them.
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Archetype

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Confirm your PMs!)
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2013, 01:39:46 pm »

3 people haven't confirmed, but we'll start when 2/3 of them have.
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Archetype

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Confirm your PMs!)
« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2013, 01:47:08 pm »

GAME START

You have 60 minutes until the end of Discussion Phase.
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Galzria

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2013, 01:50:26 pm »

Conspiracy: I'm [Archedit]not[/Archedit]actually in this game: Go!
« Last Edit: March 26, 2013, 01:56:22 pm by Archetype »
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Tables

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2013, 01:51:41 pm »

60 minutes eh? That doesn't seem like enough, but oh well.

My initial plan was to claim I was part of a conspiracy and ask the person on top of the list who they thought it was against... unfortunately...

Oh well.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Eevee

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2013, 01:52:44 pm »

All against poor Eevee? :-\
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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2013, 01:55:38 pm »

Hmm... some thoughts:

If we're all innocent, all I need to do is find one other person whose behavior convinces me they're innocent, then we're all innocent.

If you're all in a conspiracy, then all I need to do is find one other person whose behavior convinces me they're a conspirator. Then we're all in a conspiracy.

In other words, all that I really care about is the most and the least suspicious person... possibly. But it's possible someone will look guilty and someone will look totally clueless, at which point I might end up confused. Hm.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

jotheonah

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2013, 01:55:49 pm »

So I don't know how Archetype randomized this, but suppose he flipped a coin to decide between setup A and setup B.  Then, if he ended up with a conspiracy, he randomly picked 1 out of 7 of us to be innocent.

So there's 8 possibilities, but they're weighted such that it's as if there are fourteen, sort of

1-7. All innocent
8. Conspiracy and I'm innocent
9-14. Conspiracy and I'm a conspirator.

By virtue of my PM, I can eliminate 9-14.

That means there's only a 1/8 chance of a conspiracy.  That's very very good odds for me just assuming there isn't one.
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jotheonah

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2013, 01:58:34 pm »

Oh, nevermind, the OP invalidates me.
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jotheonah

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2013, 01:59:25 pm »

In fact, for the person being conspired against (which if they exist, is me) there's actually a 50% chance of a conspiracy?
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jotheonah

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2013, 02:02:17 pm »

Ok, yeah, there's a conspiracy. If we were all innocent, we'd be posting waay more. GG guys.
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Eevee

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2013, 02:04:03 pm »

In fact, for the person being conspired against (which if they exist, is me) there's actually a 50% chance of a conspiracy?
This is how I understood it works. Joth feels very genuine, I literally went through the same thinking process. If I had to guess now, I'd go with no conspiracy.
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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2013, 02:05:37 pm »

Ok, yeah, there's a conspiracy. If we were all innocent, we'd be posting waay more. GG guys.
Dunno, the game start sort of creeped on us. It hasn't been that long.

Off to get some tacos!
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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2013, 02:05:58 pm »

I quite like that logic. Except it would meant it's coming from a conspirator. Hm. Unless you're trying to WIFOM.

I wonder if the opposite is true. If there was a conspiracy, all the innocents have basically nothing to say, so they're all quiet.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

mcmcsalot

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2013, 02:07:06 pm »

I read the op so I knew all of this already, talking about statistics of a conspiracy looks like a conspirator trying to make filler.

This is very interesting, how do we feel people would act with knowledge of a conspiracy?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2013, 02:07:58 pm »

My post was referring to joths statistic stuff
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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jotheonah

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2013, 02:08:23 pm »

I read the op so I knew all of this already, talking about statistics of a conspiracy looks like a conspirator trying to make filler.

This is very interesting, how do we feel people would act with knowledge of a conspiracy?
Pretty much exactly like you guys are all acting now. Seriously, gg.
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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2013, 02:12:33 pm »

In fact, for the person being conspired against (which if they exist, is me) there's actually a 50% chance of a conspiracy?
This is how I understood it works. Joth feels very genuine, I literally went through the same thinking process. If I had to guess now, I'd go with no conspiracy.

Hmm...

At first I found this extremely suspicious, but now I'm finding Joth very non-suspicious. You seem to be buddying up to him, which seems like a good combo to convince me there's no conspiracy. But then Joth's post is a very clever post for an innocent, tests to see if people jump up to argue against his observation.

And actually... people are jumping up to argue against it. Which is... confusing.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2013, 02:14:33 pm »

I read the op so I knew all of this already, talking about statistics of a conspiracy looks like a conspirator trying to make filler.

This is very interesting, how do we feel people would act with knowledge of a conspiracy?
Pretty much exactly like you guys are all acting now. Seriously, gg.
innocent(town) trying to draw reaction of frustration from conspiritors(scum) or conspiritor trying to look innocent?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

jotheonah

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2013, 02:14:48 pm »

I'm in a funny position now, because if I'm right, and I think I am, I don't need to convince anyone of anything! In fact I can't possibly.
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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2013, 02:16:30 pm »

Yeah, I had realised that. I figure you can't possibly be right, but I have nothing to gain trying to convince you.

But I am very interested in why everyone else is interested in you. Is this some kind of clever double-bluff? Can the conspirators PM each other?
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

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Re: Conspiracy I: Is there one? (Goooooo!)
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2013, 02:19:13 pm »

Just checked. No they can't.

Only four people have posted so far. I guess that's enough, but still, would be nice to see more posts.

Hmm, nobody responded to Eevee's first post. That tells me... Eevee is on the same team as everyone else. Damn, I already knew that.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.
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