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[Archetype]

Game Thread is here

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I was browsing through the MafiaScum wiki and found out about the game Conspiracy. I've never heard about it, but it seems fun and was wondering if anyone here would be interested in a game.

The basic game is that there is a 50/50 chance of two situations:

A.
1 'Innocent' player
The rest 'Conspirators'

B.
All 'Innocent'

The goal of the game is for the Innocents to correctly guess which of the two setups are used in the game using the question "Is there a conspiracy?" and answering 'Yes' or 'No' at the end of the game. If the Innocent in scenario A guesses 'No', the Conspirators win because they are actually there. If they guess 'Yes', then they do win. For scenario B you can only win if you guess 'No'.

The Conspirators on the other hand will try their best to cover up their existence. Conspirators will know who each other are, but won't have a QT or anything. Their 'Yes' and 'No' votes mean squat because they'll know the setup.

I am changing it up a bit!

-The game usually only lasts a few minutes IRL, so I was thinking about playing this super-blitz style like we did in DM I and II.
- There will be a 25% chance of there being a Conspiracy and a 75% of there not being a Conspiracy. See the bottom of the Wiki page for why.
- If people want to, we can play Political Conspiracy instead. It's a cross between Conspiracy and Mafia.

Signups below:
0. Archetype
1. Tables
2. mcmcsalot
3. eHalcyon
4. Eevee
5. Ozle
6. TINAS
7. jotheonah
8.
9.

No set number of players, but we'll need at least three.

This is just to drum up some interest, but if there's enough, I'll plan on launching it next week or whenever people have the most time.

[Tables]

Sounds like a laugh

[Tables]

To clarify, I'll /in

[mcmcsalot]

sounds really really fun, i'm /in

[eHalcyon]

I in, and then I automatically guess that there is a conspiracy.  No further posts.

[Eevee]

inn

[Tables]

Should the chance of there being a conspiracy not be n/(n+1), with n being the number of players instead of 25/75- so that given you're innocent there's a 50% chance there's a conspiracy?

[Ozle]

In.
Vote no conspiracy

[mcmcsalot]

In.
Vote no conspiracy

I in, and then I automatically guess that there is a conspiracy.  No further posts.

Guys, guys. I think your doing it wrong, you vote when the games over, not before it starts sillies.
I wonder what the usual correct guess % is for this game.

[Archetype]

Well, cool.

Looks like I'll be starting this Monday (objections?).

I'll let you guys decide how short you think the deadline should be and at what time.

If I understand Tables correctly:

With 5 people:

83% chance of everyone being Innocent
17% chance of 4 Conspirators

I really don't care what we do. Whatever way you guys find the most interesting.

We can always have people!

[Tables]

No, other way around. Basically each of the following should be equally likely:

There is a conspiracy against Tables
There is a conspiracy against mcmcsalot
There is a conspiracy against eHalcyon
There is a conspiracy against Eevee
There is a conspiracy against Ozle
There is no conspiracy

That way, given you have an innocent card there's a 50% chance there's a conspiracy (e.g. Say I'm dealt innocent. I know either there's a conspiracy against me, or there's no conspiracy, and both are equally likely)

[Axxle]

Well, cool.

Looks like I'll be starting this Monday (objections?).

I'll let you guys decide how short you think the deadline should be and at what time.

If I understand Tables correctly:

With 5 people:

83% chance of everyone being Innocent
17% chance of 4 Conspirators

I really don't care what we do. Whatever way you guys find the most interesting.

We can always have people!

I think it's supposed to be opposite looking at the wiki page.
17% chance of everyone being Innocent
83% chance of 4 Conspirators


To put it another way, during the setup of an N player game, the following options are available:

    Conspiracy against Player 1
    Conspiracy against Player 2
    ...
    Conspiracy against player N
    No Conspiracy


Edit: There you go.

[Archetype]

Really? Then wouldn't the logical answer always be 'yes' based on odds and the behavior of the players?

[Tables]

You're looking at the odds the wrong way. Remember, if you get an innocent card you can immediately eliminate the possibility of the game being anything but a conspiracy against you or a game with no conspiracy, and you know both of those events are equally likey.

I actually had to wrap my head around this in bed last night. If the innocents always say yes, then the innocents win N/(N+1) of the possible games. BUT the game they lose, EVERYONE loses as an innocent, so in terms of number of innocents winning to innocents losing, its:
N (no of games with one innocent) * 1 (no. of innocents in those games)
Compared to:
1 (no. of games with everyone innocent) * N (no. of innocents in those games)

And both are equal.

[Tables]

Similiar logic applies if everyone always says No - the innocents lose 80% of the games, but in terms of the chance of an innocent winning, it's still 50%.

Of course being a social deduction game, one would expect to have a slightly higher win percentage, in general.

[Archetype]

Hm. I can't seem to wrap my head around it, but I'll go with it.

So for now, the odds are 17% Full Innocent and 83% Conspirators.

[Axxle]

Hm. I can't seem to wrap my head around it, but I'll go with it.

So for now, the odds are 17% Full Innocent and 83% Conspirators.

There is a conspiracy against Tables
There is a conspiracy against mcmcsalot
There is a conspiracy against eHalcyon
There is a conspiracy against Eevee
There is a conspiracy against Axxle
There is no conspiracy

I have an Innocent role.
There are only two options left:
  There is a conspiracy against Axxle
  There is no conspiracy
each with equal chance.

[Archetype]

Hm. I can't seem to wrap my head around it, but I'll go with it.

So for now, the odds are 17% Full Innocent and 83% Conspirators.

There is a conspiracy against Tables
There is a conspiracy against mcmcsalot
There is a conspiracy against eHalcyon
There is a conspiracy against Eevee
There is a conspiracy against Axxle
There is no conspiracy

I have an Innocent role.
There are only two options left:
  There is a conspiracy against Axxle
  There is no conspiracy
each with equal chance.

D'oh, now I see it! I forgot that you would eliminate the other Conspiracy options if you did draw an Innocent. Makes much more sense now.

[mcmcsalot]

So there is either one innocent or all innocents, there cannot be three innocents correct.

[Archetype]

Correct. The only 2 situations are the ones listed in the OP.

[Axxle]

So there is either one innocent or all innocents, there cannot be three innocents correct.

unless we play with 3 players [/edgecase]

[eHalcyon]

You probably shouldn't count me as actually in.  Because if I am in, I will guess conspiracy immediately and not say anything more.  I understand how the game works, but that is what I would do, because I love conspiracies.

[Archetype]

Hah! I'm actually working on developing a mechanic that can end the day faster if people want me to.

Basically, at one point during the game, players can PM that they want to vote to end the game and skip to the answering the question phase. These votes will not be made public.

Deciding if:

A: Unvotes should be allowed
B: Day will end if which one of: simple majority, two-thirds, or all players voted needed for the day to end.

[Ozle]

Ahhh, hang on, are we straying into Monty Hall Paradox land?

Clearly there will be no Conspiracy Ehalc, ssssshhh

[Thisisnotasmile]

I'm tempted to join but... I don't really get what "social deduction" there is to be done. Everyone's going to claim they are innocent and end up making a 50/50 shot in the dark at the end. At least in mafia there are special roles that can provide some information. Am I missing something?