Develop is #30 on the
current ranking of 3$ cards that I find myself strangely attracted to these days. My win-rate is pretty average with it (1.18) but I still would like to share a little thought experiment that goes through my mind every time I spot develop in the kingdom.
The question asked is: what does it mean to open develop/terminal 4$ card?
Lets assume for now that the 4$ card is a terminal silver (e.g. militia, monument or navigator) to keep things simple. Then there are three essential scenarios:
1) The typical one:
no terminal conflict and develop hits estate.
Probability: 60%2)
Terminal conflict.
Probability: 30%3) Develop
misses both the terminal and the estate.
Probability: 10%The crucial point to understand is that you need to compare develop to both the classical 3/4 and 2/5 openings,
and keep track of how much cycling speed you've lost.In scenario 1, you essentially replaced one of your starting estates with a develop, at the cost of
one card cycling, which is like saying that you got hit by a bureaucrat. In a shortform notation I will quantify this as:
3/4 opening, -1E(estate), +1D(devel), -1C(cycling). This opening is therefore equivalent to opening 3/4 but replacing one of your initial estates by a devel and cycling one less card on the first reschuffle. Note that because you
topdeck the gained silver, this is not at all equivalent to gaining it via, say, a jack of all trades or bureaucrat.
In scenario 2, I assume there is an
interesting 5$ card that you are partly racing for with your opponent. You can find a list of 5$ cards that work particularly well below. The point is that you
avoid the terminal conflict by developing your 4$ card
even if you have an estate. The net effect is:
3/5, +1D, -2C. This is therefore
equivalent to opening silver+devel/5$ on T2/3 (not a shabby opening)
but giving a free ghost ship play to your opponent. I stress that because you
topdeck the 5$ card, this must be compared to a 2/5 opening, not a 3/4 one. Therefore this scenario (and hence the devel/4 opening) typically shines on boards that favor 5/2 openings. In that sense, develop works a lot like
nomad camp, which is the only other card that can allow you to gain a 5$ card on your first reschuffle from a 3/4 opening.
Finally, scenario 3 is very very bad. If you had bought a silver instead, this would have been a 6$ hand. instead you get another poor 3/4 dollar cycle for the very meager benefit of trashing one copper.
So, this is a gamble opening. The interesting scenario is terminal conflict, which happens roughly with probability 30%. How much this event is worth depends heavily on the 5$ card you are targeting, but also on how useful the develop will be later in the game.
Don't forget, the develop will stay no matter what! The cards that therefore work best are either
very strong 5$ cards that you want as early as possible (e.g. witch, mountebank, igg, vault on grand market board) or
non-terminal hand increasers (e.g. laboratory, stables, tactician). The first one is because of the sheer impact of gaining one of those cards a shuffle earlier than your opponent, which will compensate any momentum loss from the free ghost ship you give them. Of all these cards, IGG shines the most, as it also provides an amazing develop target throughout the game. The second scenario is a little more subtle, but basically hinges on the fact that all these cards give you a very high chance of matching your develop with your three remaing estates, usually paving the way for a very strong engine or BM+non-terminal draw deck. This time, stables gets a mention as it takes care of the 'trash' that develop does not want to bother with (coppers), while helping develop those estates into silver. Tactician is also noteworthy, as a lot of tactician decks (tact-bank, double tact-black market...) are decided by who plays his tact first. Clearing the estates quickly is the cherry on top of the cake.
Lets turn our attention to scenario 1. It happens roughly with probability 60%, and is essentially equivalent to replacing one of your starting estates with a devel, at the cost of mild tempo loss. First, while that does not sound altogether positive, don't forget that
at each cycle, you will still have a decent shot at the above gamble. The way I think of it therefore, the tradeoff is basically between giving your opponent a free bureucrat attack, and having a chance at a surprise 5$ card
on the second reschuffle. Given that this opening does not hurt your odds of hitting 5$ on your first reschuffle, this can still lead to interesting play. However, barring a powerful 5$ card or an overall good develop board, this is still just 'equalizing' with the standard 3/4 opening.
Scenario 3, which has roughly a 10% chance of turning up, is extremely bad, esepcially given that you choose this opening
to hit 5$.
So, in a nutshell, this opening is a gamble opening. It trades off a 30% chance of getting a lead for essentially a 10% of badly losing the game. In the remaining 60%, it behaves in a similar fashion to a standard opening, with some slight subtleties that make it better or worse depending on the specific kindom (basically how important the develop is for a possible engine). Whether this gamble is worth the risk is highly dependent on the 5$ cards available. Whether the board is develop-friendly does not really come into the equation directly, as the optimal strategy in most such boards is to first ramp up moneyness and
then add the develop to create valuable 5=>6+4 or what not combos.
Works with- Boards with significant 5/2 advantage
- Otherwise not played 4$ terminals (e.g. navigator, militia on some boards)
- IGG
- non-terminal +draw
- tact
conflicts with- lack of the above (develop remains a weak card)
- strong cantrip 4$ (e.g. tournament, caravan)
