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Author Topic: Dominion Confessions  (Read 4767 times)

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cascadestyler

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #50 on: September 29, 2017, 05:35:48 pm »
+6

This is my first week as a gold subscriber.
Today I opened Steward/Baron then wrote "ah damn - shelters' into the chat
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ThetaSigma12

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #51 on: September 29, 2017, 05:39:00 pm »
+4

Today I opened Steward/Baron then wrote "ah damn - shelters'
Good thinking, that way you can trash the Baron with Steward!
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Titandrake

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #52 on: September 29, 2017, 10:20:17 pm »
+2

I've never owned a physical copy of Dominion. I last played IRL over a year ago. I never paid for sets on Making Fun. I didn't buy a gold subscription until the ShuffleIT tournament required it. Bureaucrat is one of my favorite cards. I have never bought Miser because I was too lazy to figure out how to use it.
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ackmondual

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #53 on: September 29, 2017, 11:34:01 pm »
0

I miss 1E cards... especially Scout!
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Awaclus

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #54 on: October 04, 2017, 03:40:46 am »
+2

This just happened in a championship match. (not the Discord chat, the chat happened afterwards)

« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 06:45:40 am by Awaclus »
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Doom_Shark

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #55 on: October 05, 2017, 10:10:38 pm »
0

I bought a Wild Hunt when my opponent had already been going for it instead of a second Patrol while Mill was on the board. (I won anyway, but that doesn't change the fact that I should have bought a second Patrol)
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Awaclus

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #56 on: October 06, 2017, 05:06:28 am »
+1

I bought a Wild Hunt when my opponent had already been going for it instead of a second Patrol while Mill was on the board. (I won anyway, but that doesn't change the fact that I should have bought a second Patrol)

You have to buy Wild Hunt every time. With the second Patrol, it's pretty likely you would have lost instead.
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Doom_Shark

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #57 on: October 06, 2017, 05:16:02 pm »
0

I bought a Wild Hunt when my opponent had already been going for it instead of a second Patrol while Mill was on the board. (I won anyway, but that doesn't change the fact that I should have bought a second Patrol)

You have to buy Wild Hunt every time. With the second Patrol, it's pretty likely you would have lost instead.

I respectfully disagree. The Patrol would have made my engine more consistent, and my opponent would have had to spend more time building up the . He only ever bought one Wild Hunt, which was a mistake on his part, which probably helped some (a lot) as well
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Awaclus

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #58 on: October 06, 2017, 06:11:33 pm »
+2

I bought a Wild Hunt when my opponent had already been going for it instead of a second Patrol while Mill was on the board. (I won anyway, but that doesn't change the fact that I should have bought a second Patrol)

You have to buy Wild Hunt every time. With the second Patrol, it's pretty likely you would have lost instead.

I respectfully disagree. The Patrol would have made my engine more consistent, and my opponent would have had to spend more time building up the . He only ever bought one Wild Hunt, which was a mistake on his part, which probably helped some (a lot) as well

If you don't get a Wild Hunt, your opponent can just get 203947852039487520394875209348750239486709246790 tokens on the pile while nothing is junking his deck or limiting his potential VP gain. Just a single Wild Hunt is enough to prevent that from happening; then he has to use his last Wild Hunt to gain an Estate every turn.

Of course it helped a lot that he didn't buy more than one Wild Hunt (he should have bought 9 of them), but you can't really count on that.
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jonaskoelker

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #59 on: October 08, 2017, 10:53:04 am »
0

I once tried building an engine payloading mass Bridge off of Shanty Town and Patrol.

The math: playing Shanty Town plus Patrol nets one card. To play n Bridges I need to play n-1 villages; for n=5 I need to draw 4 cards, for which I need 4xShanty+4xPatrol (and I need to not draw whatever trasher is stuck in my deck). Note that n=6 requires 5xShanty for the payload and 6xShanty to draw all that with Patrol; only cheaters buy 11xShanty.

So that's a deck of 8xShanty, 4xPatrol, 5xBridge, a trasher, and probably an extra Shanty/Patrol pair to draw past the trasher, which is obviously super fast to build. Note that this is enough to single Province. I can probably add in a Gold if I add an extra Shanty/Patrol pair to draw it, to double Province.

Of course, you should continue adding Shanty/Patrol pairs as you green to draw past your green cards.

That was an unmitigated disaster, but it's great fun retrospectively ;D
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dedicateddan

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #60 on: October 11, 2017, 02:04:25 pm »
+11

Today is just not my day

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Awaclus

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #61 on: October 11, 2017, 02:09:04 pm »
+2

Today is just not my day



Was that t3/4?
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dedicateddan

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #62 on: October 11, 2017, 02:20:35 pm »
+2

 Turn 3 :'(
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pacovf

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #63 on: October 11, 2017, 02:44:56 pm »
+4

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!
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Dingan

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #64 on: October 11, 2017, 03:02:59 pm »
+4

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!
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J Reggie

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #65 on: October 11, 2017, 04:20:22 pm »
+6

Well, that's the mathematical odds. The actual odds are more like 50%.

Cave-o-sapien

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #66 on: October 11, 2017, 06:01:58 pm »
+2

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!

Strictly speaking that's a probability, not an odds. :)
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pacovf

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #67 on: October 11, 2017, 09:47:53 pm »
0

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!

Strictly speaking that's a probability, not an odds. :)

I don't know if this is a problem with my English or with my Maths, can you illuminate me?
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AJD

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #68 on: October 11, 2017, 10:09:18 pm »
+4

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!

Strictly speaking that's a probability, not an odds. :)

I don't know if this is a problem with my English or with my Maths, can you illuminate me?

The probability of something happening is represented as a ratio of two numbers that represent the likelihood of the event vs. all possibilities. The odds is a ratio of two numbers that represent the likelihood of the event vs. all other possibilities.

So, if you flip two coins, the probability of getting two heads is 1/4: 4 possible outcomes, one of which is the one you want.
The odds of getting two heads is 1/3: 1 outcome you want, and 3 outcomes you don't want.
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AJD

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #69 on: October 11, 2017, 10:11:38 pm »
+2

(Which means that probability is a number between 0 and 1, and odds is a number between zero and infinity, which means they're useful for different sorts of calculations.)
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #70 on: October 12, 2017, 02:05:20 am »
+1

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!

Strictly speaking that's a probability, not an odds. :)

I don't know if this is a problem with my English or with my Maths, can you illuminate me?


AJD nailed the explanation.

Only pedants, statisticians and gamblers really care about the difference.

In day-to-day usage, most people use the terms "odds" and "probability" interchangeably.
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Sidsel

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #71 on: October 12, 2017, 03:52:56 am »
+1

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!

"Never tell me the odds"
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Marcory

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #72 on: October 12, 2017, 08:30:11 am »
0

Odds of that happening on either turn 3 or turn 4 are 1/396, so roughly 0.25%.

You're welcome!

"Never tell me the odds"

That's probably a good idea.
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ycz6

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #73 on: October 12, 2017, 06:22:19 pm »
+2

The odds of getting two heads is 1/3: 1 outcome you want, and 3 outcomes you don't want.
A small but important correction: Odds are notated with a colon, not a slash. So the odds of getting two heads are 1:3 (pronounced "one to three"). Also, "odds" is plural, you say "the odds are" rather than "the odds is". Both of them do sound kind of weird though.

Traditionally, odds are worded as being "against" the less likely outcome, so that the first number is larger than the second. So in this case, you'd say that the odds against getting two heads are 3:1. As for why this is the case... my best guess is that odds are most often used for betting, and in that context you can then interpret the odds as a fraction that indicates how much of your bet you get back if you win. For instance, if I put up $100 on a 3:1 bet and won, I would get $400 back, resulting in a net gain of $300, which is 3/1 times the amount I paid.
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AJD

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Re: Dominion Confessions
« Reply #74 on: October 13, 2017, 12:20:15 am »
+2

The odds of getting two heads is 1/3: 1 outcome you want, and 3 outcomes you don't want.
A small but important correction: Odds are notated with a colon, not a slash. So the odds of getting two heads are 1:3 (pronounced "one to three").

Yeah, true, fair enough. But the logarithm of it is still 1.1, so mathematically it's the same as the fraction 1/3.

(uhhhh log-odds are the context in which I'm most likely to interact with odds in my day-to-day life, see)
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