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[AJD]

I just played a 3-player game with this kingdom (no Colonies, no Shelters):

Vagrant, Fishing Village, Woodcutter, Baron, Bureaucrat, Moneylender, Bazaar, Upgrade, Goons, Hunting Grounds

Is it better to use your $4 opening on Baron (to try to spike an early Goons) or Moneylender (to get an early start on trashing)? Or something else (e.g., a double–Fishing Village opening)?

Once people have said what they think the right approach is, I'll say what I did and how it worked out.

[Davio]

Early Goons is not that devastating.

As Bazaar and FV allow for multiple Goons, I would definitely grab the Moneylender into Upgrades and then start getting FVs, Goons and Hunting Grounds. Vagrant is a fine target for your extra buys with Goons.

So definitely Moneylender and I don't think it's even close.

[qmech]

Totally agree with Davio.  Plenty of Villages with amazing trashing and draw means Goons megaturns, and all the point-scoring weight in those games is at the end.  The early attack is nice, but far more important is making sure you're set for the endgame.  Goons probably wouldn't even be my first $6.

[Lekkit]

Early Goons is not that devastating.

On this board.

On boards where you can only ever play 1 Goons per turn, it is.

[Davio]

Still I wouldn't use "devastating" to describe it on boards where you can only play 1 Goons. An advantage, yes, but not as huge as people often think. I'm not saying it isn't pretty good, I just think it's less big than what most players think.

[shark_bait]

Early goons is not that good here.  You want to complete your deck drawing before you add your payload.

Open FV/Moneylender.

First $5's get a couple of Upgrades then switch to Bazaar.

First $6 get HG

Mid game you can continue to trash all of your Coppers with Moneylender.  This should be fast with your Upgrade/HG cycling.  Then when you are done trashing you can get rid of Moneylender for Bazaar, an Upgrade for Goons.  At that point you don't need Baron.  Baron requires an Estate for +$4 so it is 2 cards that aren't Goons or Village/Draw.  You will already have +Buy in the form of Goons.

You could consider getting it late game if it is close and you want +Buys for end game control but you can't buy Goons because that would put that pile low.

[DG]

An early goons can be devastating for the hand size attack, essentially preventing an opponent from buying their own goons (or other 6 cost card) until they have three silver equivalent cards. The early victory points are immaterial. In this kingdom you've got the moneylender, fishing village, and upgrade that all look worse in three card hands. Nonetheless, the early trashing from moneylender will probably be worth it here.

[LastFootnote]

The only reason I'd be tempted to open Baron is to more quickly amass Fishing Villages. Open Baron/Fishing Village and hope you can get three more Fishing Villages on your next two turns. In a 3-player game, that might be clutch.

Probably I'd go Moneylender, since Bazaar is there as a secondary village and even a few Fishing Villages go a long way.

[AJD]

Well, you guys are right—Moneylender is the winner. I opened Baron, hoping to get Goons early and figuring I'd rather trash with Upgrade than with Moneylender, and I got basically the perfect reshuffle—pretty sure I bought Goons/Upgrade on turns 3 and 4—but the delayed trashing meant my engine took too long to come together and by the time the Goons, Bazaars, and Fishing Villages emptied I had only 15 points. (Being player 3 may have made it worse; if I'd been in an earlier seat I would have played my first 3-card turn a round later.)

[soulnet]

Moreover, if you stumble upon a second $4 hand, I may even get a second Moneylender. They are upgradable into Bazaars or more Upgrades anyway, and you do not want to discard Estates: You want to turn them into FVs.

EDIT: I agree with HG over first Goons if you can get it early. The Attack is not that important, if you have enough draw.