However, we should NOT go after the SK today. If we're wrong, there are 2 NKs and we lose for sure. At least by lynching axxel and getting a good idea of who is the SK we can have a chance to win.
This logic doesn't make sense. If we assume there is 1 mafia and 1 sk left and we mislynch, regardless of who we go for, we lose unless scum target each other, which they should since 1 sk, 1 mafia is going to cause them both to lose anyway.
If we assume 2 memebers of a second faction then we need to target them for the right lynch, otherwise we straight up lose.
Well, we know you're scum, so the question is lynch you or find the SK.
I was rethinking this, that's why I asked there powers.
If faust is the SK and has bulletproof or some thing that protects him from NKs that, he could be lying. This changes stuff. I didn't think of that. I'm just going to assume the worst and pretend that the SK has bulletproof.
Let me revise this:
So two scenarios:
1. Axxel is town. Then faust is either:
a. Mafia: in which case the SK would realize this, faust would die, but he'd try to shoot SK or town (it's irrelevant really to faust cause he's dead.) He doesn't have incentive to lie.
b. SK: In which case the mafia would realize he's the SK and try to NK him. If he has protection then it's the SK vs. 3, one being mafia. We lose. But, he probably loses too, because we'd know for sure he was scum. He doesn't have incentive to do this because we'd probably be pretty angry at him and not choose to kill other than him, seeing as he ensured our loss.
Faust still has no incentive to lie. Axxel is scum.
2. Axxel is scum, obviously.
If he's mafia: Then Sk nks someone and we're left to 2-1. We still have to figure out who it is. Arch can use his power to figure it out. Depending on how people vote for Axxel, I think we could figure it out who the SK is from that kind of info. Unless Arch is the SK or the SK targets arch, but then it's still 2-1, and we have a chance of winning.
If he's the SK: then mafia hits someone, and we're 2-1, same as the other scenario.
So, do we lynch axxel or try to find the SK? We have 2 options, faust or arch. I still lean faust.
If we lynch faust or arch instead of Axxel, two scenarios:
1. They're town, in which case we lose.
a. Axxel's mafia and dies from the SK. He can try to hit the SK or hit confirmed town EFHW, but he's going to lose. Given that the SK probably has NK protection, he'll probably just kill EFHW in hope that he doesn't get NKed and can some how still win (even though he won't) that scum!axxel's best option. That puts us at 2 town to the SK tomorrow if he shoots and successfully hits the SK, which is about the same odds as killing scum!axxel, or 1-1 if Axxel shoots EFHW, in which case SK wins. This makes me think this is a worse option, because there's a chance we just automatically lose if axxel shoots EFHW instead of trying to hit the SK. At best, this option is the same as just lynching axxel.
b. Axxel's the SK. Then mafia kills at night and Axxel tries to hit the SK. It's iffy:
Best scenario: SK!Axxel hitting scum and mafia hits axxel, who lives from protection, then it's 2-1, we lynch axxel, we win.
Most likely: Mafia hits Axxel, because it's their only way to win. Axxel kills town. It's 1-1-1. We lose for sure, it's only a question of which scum faction wins.
Less likely: Mafia kills town, Axxel kills town, then it's mafia vs. Sk, SK wins b/c protection.
Least likely: Mafia hits town, Axxel hits mafia. Then it's the SK and town, SK wins.
2. We actually hit scum,
a. If they're mafia, Then Axxel lives and nks someone, it's 2-1, we lynch Axxel the next day, yay! we win.
b. If they're the SK, then axxel lives and NKs someone, it's 2-1, we lynch axxel then next day, yay! we win.
So if we pursue the SK, there a 1/3 chance we win today, if they're actually scum (from the possibilities of me, faust, arch). Otherwise, we either lose or we're the same off as if we just lynched Axxel (but that has no bad chances of auto-loss). If we lynch axxel today, we have about a 50% chance of winning, because it would be 2-1.
I think lynching axxel and getting reads and info today is the best option.
Tell me if my logic is wrong, but I'm pretty sure this is every scenario.
PPE (4):
NO ONE ELSE VOTE AXXEL, he'll just hammer himself to screw us over with time to talk. Let's wait until at least closer to the deadline