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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 337053 times)

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jotheonah

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Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

That's by design.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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O

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Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

That's by design.

Regardless of how suspicious you are, I doubt that.
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popsofctown

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I lol'ed.  I believe him, if town.
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jotheonah

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Dsell

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.
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Captain_Frisk

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

If you self vote - I will vote for you.
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Dsell

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And if not anti-town, at least anti-self.
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Axxle

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
Unvote; Vote: Jotheonah This is the only way I know of to vote for you again.
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Robz888

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

Yeah, just watched this Jo situation unfold, my goodness. I am going to think it over a bit first, but... the VT roleclaim and then this makes it highly likely I will vote for him soon.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

jotheonah

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

Might as well go for the trifecta, right? Also, give me some credit, at least I asked first.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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O

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ZOMG JOTHEONAHS JESTER!!!!!
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Robz888

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Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

Might as well go for the trifecta, right? Also, give me some credit, at least I asked first.

Asking first is worse. You are gauging reaction before doing it.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

jotheonah

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See, I would have thought that at least someone would read that question as hypothetical. But like, you're all sure I'd actually do it.


So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.)  Now if anyone but me gets lynched (according to lots of people) I'm a nighttime liability to the town. So in that case, I ask again, isn't it pro-town for me to facilitate my own lynch?
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Glooble

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I don't know what the hell is going on with jo. It seems like really dumb town play, but dumber mafia play. But I think a certain amount of it can be summed up as "in for a penny, in a for a pound" - that is to say, he was acting so crazy he thought he might as well act really crazy, get himself lynched, and hope the information about who goes for the easy lynch helps the rest of us find scum.

Is that the gamble, jo? The master plan?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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That is it exactly. You can read me like a book.

Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

Just for the sake of accurate documentation:  If you check my post at #599, you'll see that I state "I played professional poker".  I do not do so anymore.  I have posted about my experience in that arena elsewhere on f.DS, so my playing is not new news.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.
If you go to a player's profile, then on the left side of that page will be a "Show all posts" option.
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Posting begets posting.

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Donald X made me a design snob.

There is a sucker born every minute.

Captain_Frisk

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That is it exactly. You can read me like a book.

Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.

So - my musings on a VT roleclaim.

- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone.  If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another.  While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.

- If he's actually a town PR - then why claim VT?

- If mafia - a power role claim offer's stronger lynch protection - either it is counter claimed - in which case mafia gains information... or you survive for an extra day

- If mafia - a VT claim is unverifiable on Day 1

Like the others have said - it feels premature to be nervous about being lynched. 

J doesn't strike me as a bad player, so I don't believe it's a mistake - despite his claim.  I'm left being highly suspicious, but I'm not interested in actually lynching him today.
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Captain_Frisk

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J doesn't strike me as a bad player, so I don't believe it's a mistake - despite his claim.  I'm left being highly suspicious, but I'm not interested in actually lynching him today.

By "today" I'm referring to meatspace - June 5th.  Not the day period we are currently in game - which ends in several weeks.
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O

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- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone.  If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another.  While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.

You're logical and clearheaded enough that this willing misinterpretation is confusing. My point was that if mafia believe Jo's VT roleclaim (which they probably do if Jo is NOT mafia), then the mafia won't kill him and have a higher chance of hitting a power role.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Mafia are on the joth wagon, not on my wagon.  My wagon is just misguided townies. 

Joth is a very easy vote, but townie gut should exonerate his later posting.  I am suspicious of the people that vote joth, including me.  I double checked my role pm though and I'm good to go.
Wait, I better go read mine.
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Donald X made me a design snob.

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Tables

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The heck is going on here?

I'll start again with a correction to information about me
My opinion of Tables is that he is normally very active and insightful but real life/ the enormousness of this thread is keeping him from keeping the kind of notes he would like to...

(Post written after 715 with no editing after that)

I wasn't actually that active in Mafia II. I made a few good posts, but that's it. Most of what I said was 'I'm trying to analyse stuff BRB' and then the mafia killed me. Here, I'm taking fewer notes but keeping up (for some definition of keeping up).

And once again, the analysis I was hoping to post (again, regarding Joth) has been upturned and shot up by events on the last page (again, regarding Joth). So here's what I observed:

Theorel's points about Joth in post 596
Glooble's points about Joth in post 627

These two seemed a bit strange. At the time, Joth was in a little danger - not much, but enough for say scum to be concerned. And both of these made what seemed to me to be a slightly forced 'I think he's town let's back off' post. Like they were covering for scum to some degree. Of course, that relies on Joth being scum, but their defence still seems a little forced.

And then we got the post that made me drop my jaw and almost flip tables. Post 699, where Joth reciprocates that and announces, pretty out of the blue, he has town reads on the two of them.

I honestly don't know what to make of it all. It's too obvious if they're scum. It's possible they're masons, but generally, I just found it all a bit disconcerting.

Now regarding Joth's claim. It's bad, but it's not something we should be fussing about too much over. It shouldn't affect if we want to lynch him or not. We know at worst we don't lose a power role, but does his claim affect his chance of being scum? If he's scum, it could be a tactical decoy move, hoping people will just leave him as is (his 'should I self vote' questioning also follows this, town never benefits from selfvoting, mafia can if it ends a day early): So, answer: No). But if he's town, it could just be an honest mistake. Something I'd believe more if he hadn't gone through Mafia II and seemed a reasonably competent player there.

That's it for my thoughts on Joth. I'll finish up for the day by posting my thoughts on everyone else, in a bit.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Galzria

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I don't like this play by J at all. I am totally confused by it. I feel more and more that he's town, but he's made his case in such a frustrating way, I don't feel comfortable unvoting him.

J, if you are town, your meltdown seems deja-vu for me. Go figure. I would like to learn from my mistakes, and have tried to do so in this game. I can't believe you would walk into the same pitfalls so easily, so I have to view your actions with a skeptical eye.

I don't "have it out" for you, but unlike the other two people that I voted for... What do you want me to do? They don't check out "clean" in my book, but at least they gave me a reason to unvote. So I'm stuck. I'm somewhere I don't believe I should be (if mafia hunting), but have no justifiable reason to back down.

So for now, I stand by my vote. It's a coinflip in my mind, and I don't know that I can improve that on anybody else (maybe Pops? Maybe Axxle? (I don't like Axxle's timing on either bandwagon, fwiw)).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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I'd like to request a 6 page volume by Galzria on the issue, otherwise I can't really settle my thoughts.
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Galzria

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I'd like to request a 6 page volume by Galzria on the issue, otherwise I can't really settle my thoughts.

You'll settle for what I gave you, and you'll like it.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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