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1
Dominion League / Season 30 - Bigger than the Championship
« on: October 14, 2018, 10:46:45 pm »
Hello everyone!

I hope you enjoyed the long break from the Dominion League over the last month. As you probably already know, we took five weeks off in order to give everyone a chance to compete in the 2018 Dominion Online Championship which is now down to round of 16. Good luck to those still alive!

We're obviously friendly with the championship; half of their moderators are current League moderators as well. But I can't resist a little gentle ribbing: At this moment, the start of season 30, we have 256 players, which is 2 more than the championship was able to gather: 254. So I think we can all agree that the Dominion League is the biggest active Dominion tournament in existence. Tell your friends!

Speaking of moderators, we're happy to welcome back Burning Skull, who took Season 29 off of moderating and playing. We didn't lose anyone from last season, so we're back to the same eight moderators as in Season 28: Anders, Burning Skull, Gazbag, gloures, myself, Seprix, tracer, and volfied. assemble_me and drsteelhammer are still hanging around and hope to come back some day.

Many of you are probably wondering about the release of Renaissance which will happen some time mid-season. You are welcome to play with Renaissance if you both agree to, but the default for Season 30 is to play without it. Assuming it's released roughly on time, it will become default to play with Renaissance in Season 31.

Also, keep an eye on daylight savings. The majority of the League is switching mid-season, the Europeans first on October 29th, and then the North Americans on November 5th.

Otherwise, we're continuing pretty steadily. We're continuing the check-ins from last season; especially with the long break before the season, be sure to let us know you're still interested in playing! markus has also already generated some forecasts for the season; check those out and see if you can do better than he predicts!

Best of luck to everyone!

SamE

2
Dominion League / Season 30 - Standings
« on: October 14, 2018, 06:40:10 pm »

3
Dominion League / Re: Season 30 - Late Signups
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:31:45 pm »
Signups listed below. See Available Spots for how many openings there are, and the Waiting List for late signups. Confirmed players are also color-coded according to tentative divisions; these will be finalized after the rating cutoff on Sunday, October 14th.


4
Dominion League / Season 30 - Late Signups
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:29:55 pm »
Season 30 will run from Monday, October 15th until Sunday, November 25th. Signups have officially closed, but if you are new to the league, you can still sign up late in this thread until Wednesday, October 17th at 19:00 UTC.

To do so, please post a message with your dominion.games username, timezone* and, if you have joined the Dominion Discord, your Discord username (formatted like @___#___). Please make sure to state the exact spelling of your username (upper/lower case, special characters, and so on). You will be placed in an appropriate division according to your timezone and rating on dominion.games as seen in the client or here.

Please check the welcome thread first and read the rules to make sure you're comfortable with the format and the time it takes to play a season. If you have any questions be sure to check out the FAQ. You can also ask questions about the League at the dominionleague channel on the Dominion Discord. If you join, we highly recommend, but do not require, using Discord to communicate with your opponents.

If there is space for you this season, you will receive a personal message from a league moderator to confirm your signup. You must reply to this message within 24 hours or your signup will be removed.

If there is no space appropriate for you (given your level and timezone), we will instead invite you to sign up for next season! You should hear back either way by Sunday, October 21st.

*When specifying a timezone, please use one of these common examples or use the same format and look yours up in the complete list.
Code: [Select]
America/Chicago
America/Denver
America/Los_Angeles
America/New_York
Australia/Sydney
Europe/Berlin
Europe/London

5
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: October 10, 2018, 12:39:29 am »
Big data, for example,  could reveal the dominance of certain strategies and ignorance of others,  or what kinds of cards have high "ragequit %"s, or trends like the perceived value of Silver and Gold. New cards could be designed to work well with overlooked existing cards, which really adds value to the game. The most popular cards (cards that get bought relatively high compared to their win %, or low rage quit %s) could be revisited to improve their chances of appearing in full random.

There's also immense value in doing simulations for cards that are likely to work well with a Big Money strategy (e.g. Patrol as DXV said) or are otherwise at risk of monolithic strategies, or compare far too favourably with similar cards.

Why not get super feedback and super playtesting? (that's not a question for anyone here)

We're already doing all of this in the Dominion community with existing cards. (And you won't be getting big data out of playtesting games.) Geronimoo does interesting simulations, while markus attempts to answer interesting questions about usage of different cards, culling from the stats of thousands of games. Donald X. is aware of all of those discussions, and takes part in them from time to time on Discord. If these "big data" observations aren't influencing him in his card creation, that's mostly because we either haven't generated enough interesting insights or those insights don't indicate anything of relevance to new cards that don't exist yet. I would suspect that the insights have influenced him, though much more subtly than him thinking, "let me see how many times people play Villages they buy on average and set Acting Troupe to give that many Villagers."

6
Dominion League / Re: Season 30 - Signups
« on: October 07, 2018, 05:36:17 pm »
The last time I played was in season 24 which is not listed in the OP. I'm pretty sure that was less than a year ago though.
You are correct; the OP has been fixed. It had incremented that season range one too far.

How do I sign up for the league matches
Like everyone else who's new:
Please post a message with your dominion.games username, timezone* and, if you have joined the Dominion Discord, your Discord username (formatted like @___#___).

7
Not really. There is basically no such thing as a player 2 advantage. If there were, the first player would pass to become the second player. Sure, the timing of your shuffles don't quite make that always the best play, but that's a higher-order effect.

There's a second-mover advantage, though, which means that there's less incentive than usual to take the artifact first. By doing so, you're opening your opponent up to a much stronger play of stealing it from you. It's like taking Dame Josephine if she's the top Knight on the pile, but even more so.

8
Loads of other interactions depend on the exact order on the card. For instance, you have to decide which cards to discard with Young Witch before opponents have to reveal whether they have the bane, or which cards to trash, if any, with Dame Anna, before seeing if she survives her attack.

9
Dominion General Discussion / Ununtrashable Cards: The Complete List
« on: September 30, 2018, 12:00:30 pm »
Few things in Dominion are irreversible these days. People have even figured out ways to put split piles back in arbitrary orders!

However, one element of Dominion has always had more of a sense of finality to it: the trash. Once something is trashed, it's gone forever, right? That's at least how we explain the game to our friends -- discarding means you'll see it again, trash means you won't.

Of course, that's changed over the expansions, starting with Dark Ages. (Technically, Thief / Noble Brigand took treasures they stole out of the trash, but since they were only in the trash for a brief moment in the midst of resolving the card, we won't count that. I also won't count Fortress for the same reason.) Dark Ages introduced us to Graverobber and Rogue, which can all take cards of a specific price range ($3-$6) out of the trash. Of course, which cost reduction like Bridge and Highway, this meant that any cards costing $3-$11 (i.e. $3+ with no potions) could be retrieved from the trash.

Lurker provided the next big jump up: Now any action cards could be taken from the trash, including cheap ones (e.g. Ruins) and potion-cost ones.

And now finally, Treasurer has given us a way to get any Treasure out of the trash. Of course, this is the biggest deal for heirlooms like Magic Lamp and Haunted Mirror, which no longer are just single-use. But it's also now the first time we can take Coppers out of the trash!

This leaves us with only a small number of cards that cannot be taken out of the trash once they make it there. Here they are:


10
Dominion Articles / Re: Chariot Race
« on: September 30, 2018, 10:58:28 am »
Well, Secret Passage shuts down Chariot Race arguably as much as it enables it. Just put that Province back in the 6th position at end of turn...

11
My final previews video is up! Featuring three games with markus (we got lucky to see all six).


12
Games with markus today!


13
Today's previews video is up! Games with kaminarizumu, commentary (let's call it... interesting) by a variety of folks including Donald X. Also a complete misreading, and mispronunciation, of Ducat at first glance.


14
My video review with commentary, games with markus and discussion featuring Stef and Donald X., among others, is up (or will be shortly):


15
First impressions video is up! Featuring games with jmjjmj and markus.


16
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The bad luck thread
« on: September 24, 2018, 02:48:44 am »
Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

I did notice another mistake. I had included the turn when they missed. So now I get 0.075%.

I calculated the chances of each of the 12 hits: 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 43%, 33%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. And then I multiplied them. I don't know how our calculations differed.

I get 32%, 57%, 57%, 57%, 67%, 67%, 71%, 69%, 71%, 69%, 65%. So it seems you go wrong somewhere in the middle with 57%, 43% and 33% replacing the two 67%'s (from the 7/17's). You also only had 11 hits, not 12 -- the 12th line you listed was the first miss.

17
Tournaments and Events / Re: Renaissance: The Tournament
« on: September 23, 2018, 01:25:40 am »
In. Hoping this is eventually expanded beyond 18.

18
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The bad luck thread
« on: September 20, 2018, 09:17:23 am »
Looks like they just hit the first 12 times, right? 12 times in 24 turns.  Still, pretty crazy.

Right, thanks, the first 12 times. I actually only calculated 11, the correct probability is even less - 0.04%!
I think you have an extra zero in there. I calculate 0.414%, or once every 242 games.

19
Tournaments and Events / Championship Bracket
« on: September 18, 2018, 11:04:44 am »
Hi everyone,

I've helped the championship moderators put together a few different versions of the Championship Bracket in Google Sheets. First, there's the full bracket for anyone looking at the super big picture. Second, you can see the bracket starting at a particular round -- since only Round 1 games have been played right now, the only interesting subbracket to see is starting from Round 2, but as the tournament progresses, we'll show later subbrackets. Finally, we've split the original bracket into 8 "regions" which will produce one quarterfinalist each -- these are on the tabs "Region A" through "Region H". Enjoy!


20
Dominion League / Season 29 - Champion Match: Sunday, September 9, 18:30 UTC
« on: September 08, 2018, 11:02:13 am »
Hello everyone!

The Champion Match in the A Division of Season 29 will take place tomorrow, Sunday, September 9th, at 18:30 UTC. It will feature 12-time champion Mic Qsenoch and top player but newcomer to A RTT. Based on the very tight finish at the top of A this season, RTT must win 3.5 games to win, while Mic Qsenoch only needs a 3-3 tie. Even if someone clinches early, they will be playing out the full six games.

There will be commentary as usual on Twitch by Sicomatic and aku chi.

21
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Patterns in Game Length
« on: September 05, 2018, 12:45:54 am »
I don't think this is nearly all signal-less; Black Market is exactly where I'd expect it to be. But yeah, looking further down the list leads to rarely-bought cards like Navigator and Venture that seem to be mostly the noise of the rest of the kingdoms they happened to be part of.

Well, I agree that I'd expect Black Market to be near the top most time-consuming cards, but we can't just look at the list and conclude that the parts that we already expected to see are signal and the unexpected parts are noise, and then use that as evidence to reaffirm our expectations.

Short: I dug into those Venture games and discovered one reason that Venture does make games longer: it's from Prosperity, so Venture games are more likely to be Colony games! However, that's a fairly small effect, but it did happen to be noticeable in a couple of the games I played.

Long: So let's dig into those games to see if those cards mattered! For instance, let's look at Venture, which I don't expect contributes to the signal. We'll focus on the games with Venture in them that were longer than the median to see if it had an effect.

#17259294 vs Philip (37:09) - a Hamlet-Watchtower engine on a Pooka board that piled Curses, Hamlets, and Farmer's Market's. One Venture gained and subsequently trashed to Salvager.
#17395519 vs Jangus (36:34) - a Herald-Jester-Courtier engine with Forge trashing. One Venture gained by Jangus, I have no idea why.
#15876496 vs f_____t_ (35:43) - the most notable thing about this game is that 5 Ghosts were gained, 2 by me and 3 by f_____t_. No Ventures gained, though, even though they can be trashed to get a Ghost.
#17812665 vs Obi Wan Bonogi (30:29) - a Colony game where Crossroads, Magpie, and Necromancer piled with 2 colonies left. No Ventures gained. Rabble also on the board so unclear if Venture caused it to be a Colony game.
#16172946 vs yudai214 (29:59) - another Colony game (with Venture as the only Prosperity card). One Venture gained by me, no idea why.
#17255797 vs Philip (29:51) - a Page game with Necromancer/Secret Passage for trashing and Dominate to build to. One Venture gained by Philip, no idea why.
#17145573 vs nasmith99 (24:22) - Ambassador war fought closely, Menagerie, Wolf Den, Grand Market. No Ventures gained.

So at most 1 Venture was gained in each of those games. That said, one or two were Colony games because of Venture, which will happen about 10% of the time Venture is on the board. And indeed, Colony games tend to be about 3-4 minutes longer on average:

TypeCountAverage Length
Normal39618:24
Colony3121:51
Shelters4017:28
Colony/Shelters414:36

So my conclusion is that there's a tiny signal just from Venture being in Prosperity, but its position is mostly noise.

22
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Patterns in Game Length
« on: September 04, 2018, 03:33:33 pm »
I think JW is right about the reason Inheritance and King's Court are short -- they provide the most runaway acceleration leading to quick resigns.

Remember that short games turn-wise are not always short time-wise. Donate games in particular can lead to a TON of thinking at the beginning of the game, particularly because the near elimination of the role of chance gives you more opportunity to think turns ahead like in chess. Conversely, slogs are often pretty fast to play since there isn't a lot to think about on your turn.

I don't think this is nearly all signal-less; Black Market is exactly where I'd expect it to be. But yeah, looking further down the list leads to rarely-bought cards like Navigator and Venture that seem to be mostly the noise of the rest of the kingdoms they happened to be part of.

23
Dominion General Discussion / Patterns in Game Length
« on: September 03, 2018, 11:00:46 pm »
I've been recording myself while playing online Dominion for the last couple of months. I've played 462 ladder games so far in that time against 96 different opponents, not counting League matches, other tournaments, or games where I accidentally didn't press "Start Recording." There's enough information there that I thought I'd share some observations.

I'll be focusing in this post on how long the games take. This counts all games, whether one of the players resigns or not. For what it's worth, I'm generally seen as somewhat on the slow side, and I resign later than most of my opponents if I do at all, both tendencies which would likely skew these numbers to the high end.

Average: 18:24
Median: 16:54
Minimum: 2:07 (a turn 4 frustration resign)
20th Percentile: 11:07
40th Percentile: 14:56
60th Percentile: 18:49
80th Percentile: 24:54
Maximum: 53:23 (this game against Dingan)

So if I were describing how long a game takes to a friend, I'd say "15-20 minutes." If they really needed to know how long the game would last, I might give a wider range, like 10-25 minutes. Only about 10% of games lasted longer than 30 minutes, although those games tend to be the more interesting ones.

We can actually quantify that. I give a completely subjective 1-5 score to every game in terms of interestingness. It's not the most discriminating metric; almost half of all games get a 3. I only give 5 games each week a 5, and those get featured in my Interesting Games of the Week series. As expected, they're a bit longer on average:
InterestingnessCountAverage Length
12812:57
29815:47
321418:44
48320:51
53821:56

Finally, you might be wondering which cards contribute to a game being longer or shorter. I have that data too, although the sample size for each card is much smaller. That said, you might be able to guess some of the top 5 in either direction:

CardGamesMedian Length
Inheritance810:01
Windfall1410:13
King's Court1310:15
Embassy1710:20
Navigator1311:12
.........
Overlord1024:06
Library1524:08
Venture1324:22
Ghost Ship2024:33
Black Market1726:48

24
Dominion League / Season 29 - End of Season Deadlines
« on: September 01, 2018, 12:46:46 pm »
Season 29 officially ends on Sunday, September 9th. To account for the westernmost timezones, the deadline for reporting matches is Monday, September 10th, at 15:00 UTC.

If you need extra time to finish, please contact your group moderator. There is a one-point penalty for finishing late two consecutive seasons, assessed to the player(s) responsible for the late finish. It is the group moderator's job to assess responsibility; if it is unclear, make sure to let them know.

The deadline for finishing matches late is one week later. All late finish matches must be reported by Monday, September 17th, at 15:00 UTC.

If any matches remain unreported by the late finish deadline, the responsible player(s) will be considered to have dropped mid-season. This means that they are banned for the next two seasons, and automatically demoted when they return. If they played at least three matches to completion, those are kept for the other players' standings and their remaining matches are "simulated" (see the full rules for how), but if they did not complete that many, its result is removed.

In addition to finishing your matches, all players must fill out the returning form to tell us whether they will be back for next season. This form was sent to you in a private message; you can also find it in the pinned post in your Discord division channel. The deadline for filling out the returning form is Wednesday, October 10th, at 19:00 UTC (the Season 30 signup deadline). Any players who have not told us whether they will be back by then will be assumed to be not returning.

25
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Semi-Interesting Dominion Moments Thread
« on: September 01, 2018, 12:05:54 am »
Turn 9 - SamE
S plays a Fishing Village
S plays a Treasure Hunter.
    S gains 3 Silvers.
S plays a Warrior.
    S shuffles their deck.
    S draws a Silver and a Soldier.
    O discards a Warrior.
    O trashes a Warrior.
    O discards a Soldier.
    O trashes a Soldier.

I debated playing the Treasure Hunter after the shuffle, but was pretty satisfied with my decision not to do so when I saw that trash. How often do you get to trash travellers from both lines like that?

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