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[Teproc]

Ichimaru reread.

Hmm, this is an interesting popsquiz from early day 1 :

Would lynch: Voltaire, Liopoil, Yuma
Won't lynch: mail-mi, Teproc, and probably Ashersky--they all read pretty town to me
Everyone else, I'm more unsure about.
I'm still learning a lot about how to read what people do as town or scum --so just going off of general impressions here.

If he is scum, one of his scumbuddies is in his "would lynch" category. Makes sense if Robz told him that scum needed to get suspicion on early one. Makes even more sense if yuma is his scumbuddy (since he didn't actually vote for yuma).

Actually, Ichimaru has this whole ting where not being suspected is scummy. This makes a lot of sense if Robz was his scumpartner and talked about it in the QT. He even makes reference to it when talking about his day 1 pass, early day 2 :

I'm fine with your vote on me. I got a D1 pass, and as such, haven't received my share of suspicion. I'm still learning how to read people's behavior as town or scum. I'll have a reads list up soon.

Reads post from day 2. yuma is not in it, liopoil is barely in it.

And here's what I feel about the current lynch options.

Ashersky: To be honest, I'm uncertain on this one. I think his overconfidence--even before Faust did anything really incriminating, does seem scummy. Yet, the case is still unconvincing to me. The sheer speed of the original wagon still makes me suspicious.

Teproc: He actually reads pretty scummy to me. Reasons at the end of this post.

Lekkit: Has really been lurking about as much as others, yet hasn't received the same suspicion for it. Interesting.

Liopoil/Chairs: Lurker lynches. Not the best, but still viable options pending how uneventful the rest of this day is. I agree that chairs should claim

2.7: I've honestly forgotten the details of this case.

Voltaire: Ash's post helped refresh my memory and better understand everything that has transpired. Totally ok with this one.

I am going to vote: Teproc. And no, this is not OMGUS. He hasn't really received any suspicion, yet I don't see what he has done to deserve this. Has he received a single vote the entire game? He brought some early accusations against Ash, but for the most part, I just think he's done a really good job of doing some towny-appearing things, while remaining mostly uninvolved.

Then there's his position on ash, from having a strong town reads on him at the end of day 1, to wanting to reexamine him after faust's flip, to this :

I'm still not sold on a chairs or Ashersky lynch as of now, (in particular I believe that chairs has been legitimately busy).

I am currently suspicious of those involved in the Ash lynch--which IMO ramped up way to quickly. I have a town read on Liopoil for the above quote.

to this :

I am willing to vote Ash if we haven't really come to a conclusion and we're really close to the deadline.

Who is around to hammer Ash?  I really don't see us lynching anyone else today?

I'm willing to hammer. But we still have what, an hour and a half left?

I understand being ready to hammer someone you're null on when close to deadline, but Ichi had enough of a town read on ash to find the wagon on him suspicious. To be fair, this is not as scummy as I remembered it to be.

Players I think are scum, or leaning scum: Teproc, Lekkit, Voltaire,
Player's I'm unsure about/mild town-read: Robz, Mail-Mi, Yuma, Liopoil, 2.7

This is consistent with the idea that scum would want to put pressure on each other early, but not later. This is just before Lekkit asked everyone their opinion on 2.7 and Voltaire.

From day 3 and on, there are constant references to the fact that yuma has received very little suspicion (something I pointed out because he was suspecting me for that reason) and the idea that someone needed to make a case on him. To which I wonder : why didn't Ichimaru go to the trouble of making that case himself ? Possibly he was preparing to bus yuma once someone did make that case.

Also, lio and Ichi are at each other's throat from day 3 and on. In a way that does not smell like bussing to me, especially since Ichimaru has had liopoil in his scum reads prety consistently since day 1. I guess he could have just decided to think his scumbuddie was scum all game long, but... that doesn't even seem like a very good strategy to me, let alone a likely one. I'm going back o yuma being scum because of this.

I'll reread liopoil next (not right now though, maybe later).

[liopoil]

So, I think Vote: Yuma. Ichimaru Gin and Teproc posted within 2 minutes of each other, I wasn't quickhammered. Now, this doesn't totally confirm him as scum, but add that on top of I already was sure enough that he was scum...

The only reservation I might have is that perhaps it is better to lynch yuma tomorrow, but I don't think so actually.

So now people can do their rereads and stuff that they want to do, then people should vote for Yuma. I'll vote for ichimaru gin if both Xeiron and Teproc prefer that lynch.

[Teproc]

liopoil reread

ash, are you completely serious about being 100% on faust? Is it not an exaggeration at all?

because if he is serious, that means that if ashersky is town, faust is scum. And if faust is town, it means ashersky is scum. If someone is actually 100% sure somebody else is scum, that means we should lynch one of those two players. It's like a cop claim w/guilty result or some equivalent.

So I am assuming that ashersky is not serious.

This kind of reasoning looks like it could be setup for a double mislynch, but the disclaimer at the end makes it look like it could just be town wondering out loud. Worth noting though.

In the same post, his answer to the % thing :

For me (note: 27% is null):

liopoil: 0%
voltaire: 16%
ashersky: 18.5%
chairs: 21%
faust: 24%
yuma: 25.5%
robz888: 26%
lekkit, ichimaru, mail-mi: 28%
Teproc: 30%
e: 31%
eevee: 34%

Ichi is slight town, yuma and Robz are slight scum. Doesn't tell us much.

ugh, not even sure I like an eevee lynch now... because knowing that I'm town, he could just be in the same boat as me. I'm having trouble seeing how we could lynch scum today. random lynch minus chairs? Not a good idea, but honestly, it's not much worse than what we're doing now.

This is liopoil showing he likes randomizing lynches, FWIW.

Not quoting because it's over several posts, but there is his collaboration with Robz's plan to catch faust lying. Given that Robz was scum and faust was town, this doesn't look good at all, could be scum trying to mislynch a PR.

He then really really wants to lynch faust (still before faust retracts his claim). I don't like this, but this is the reasoning that led me to believe Robz was town so I don't know.

And robz I think also reads ashersky well, especially when ash is town.

This is during the Great Tunneling of Robz day 2. Robz's scumbuddy might want to give credibility to Robz here, but it backfires once ash flips town. Still, that's a little scummy considering the flips.

There's a whole dancing around with L-1 on ash where liopoil unvotes and refuses to vote for ash as long as he is self-voting. Seems townie to me.

Ok more concise post:

1. liopoil was the largest wagon at the time that faust claimed and the thread turned into chaos
2. after that point he received very few votes compared to others who were in that category of possibly being lynched (specifically sure 2.7, eevee and mail-mi)
3. the main points against liopoil from day1 are lurking and responding passively to suspicion (I maintain that liopoil responds more aggressively as scum) and that it is compelling that his lynch was not brought up as a possibility against him after faust claimed
4. points I would add are his case against 2.7 today (I tend to find arguments that so and so talked about why the NK died to be from scum, but this isn't always true. I did it as town in GoT against Voltaire when we were both town for example), general lurky behavior today (and I don't just mean during his VLA, rather that he has posted but really only participated in a dialogue with ashersky and hasn't done much else)

is number 1 supposed to be a reason to suspect me? I mean, it's not like faust claimed to protect me... faust was town! or is it 'There was support for the lio mislynch before, why can't we mislynch him now?' Being almost-lynched isn't suspicious, especially because of faust's claim.

#2: ...because my scumbuddies did all that voting? I would think my hypothetical scumbuddies would vote for faust, not e or mail-mi or eevee after faust's claim. And I don't remember those wagons growing much, I remember primarily everyone moving to faust, some from my wagon, some from others.

#3: a couple things here..... first off, would you prefer I always react aggresively to cases on me as town? because I don't think doing that is effective, except that maybe it would convince yuma because it would be fufilling my meta. But it isn't a meta I really want to continue... because people don't respond positively to aggression. I think I am more likely to avoid being mislynched via a more a reserved response. In previous games as town the cases on me have been really frustrating and have the frustration leaks out. And in previous games as scum I've had more of a motive to avoid the lynch, and also wasn't frustrated because the case was correct. This game, the points against me haven't been just blatantly false like I think they have been before, and so I am not particularly frustrated. If I were to react as I have in prior town games this game, then it would be fake, and being town, I am not going to fake emotions.

#4: well I haven't found that at all, and you said yourself that it isn't always accurate. Seems like this is a point you just added on because why not. Prior to my V/LA I do not think that I was particularly lurky on D2.

This is a response to yuma's weird case on liopoil day 2, the one where liopoil is scum because his wagon disappeared after faust claimed. This case made no sense to me at the time, and liopoil's response seemed good to me. Now if the scumteam is Robz/yuma/liopoil, this is a great way to turn the liopoil wagon into town cred for liopoil, as well as giving something for both yuma and liopoil to talk about and appear active. I still do read liopoil's response as townie, but there is a scum narrative there.

I agree with the case on ashersky, and I don't think I'm voting for him. I should be. Vote: Ashersky. anyway, the bit that makes me suspicious of robz is that he says it could be town!ash. town!robz is always fairly sure that this is town ash when he does the town ash thing. I can pull quotes from multiple games if necessary. Should ash flip town, I think it really makes robz suspicious.

liopoil did indeed go after Robz consistently after ash's flip. There's no real reason for scum!liopoil to set up a bus at this point, bussing only became a necessity after the Lekkit claim.

my reads have become a fair bit weaker now that ash flipped town... feels like I haven't got anything right lately. What I've got is:

lean scum: robz, teproc
null-maybe-scummy?: yuma, 2.7
null-maybe-townie?: lekkit, ichimaru gin, mail-mi
Town: liopoil, voltaire

Reads before the Lekkit claim. Might be having Robz in there but actually not intending to vote for him. That being said, I was a very possible mislynch after the claim, and liopoil didn't try that, straight bussing (if he's scum) instead. Even when mail-mi was an alternate lynch. Which left Robz to hammer in a super scummy way. Yeah, I think this speaks against Robz/liopoil being partners.

Then we have the whole flavour name mixup. Trying to make 2.7 into somewhat of an IC after Lekkit made it clear that he was going to claim Hider (I'm assuming scum would have had the reasoning yuma talked about, I certainly would have done the research, had I been scum) does not seem like what scum would do. I think scum would'nt reject the Lekkit claim, but wouldn't wholeheartedly embrace it either. This is what liopoil posts when Lekkit claims :

fabulous, I believe it. let's not lynch any of those three.

This isn't conclusive or anything, but this is the second post after Lekkit's claim, and I do believe that scum would wait to see if some townies could be inclined to be doubtful about the claim.

At this point he is pretty convinced that Robz is scum. He was his top scum read along with me before the claim, and PoE leads him to believe I'm town. So this seems consistent with town!liopoil. Pretty null though because at this point scum!liopoil just wants to bus anyway. Which is why I don't think scum!liopoil would even put himself in that position. Also, he said he was fine with lynching mail-mi as well but never did, which is actually townie here, since he would probbaly have had the opposite attitude as scum (saying he's ok with lynching his scumpartner, but would rather vote mail-mi).

I stopped there, but day 4 he just sheeped my brain (as in, he was saying what I was thinking before I posted it). Could be masterful scum play, but Occam's Razor tells me it's town.

So yeah, there are arguments here and there, but I don't think a Robz/liopoil pairing is as strong as yuma says it is. Still think liopoil is town. Still think yuma is scum. Will reread yuma at some point, but realistically, I'm just waiting for xeiron to do his reread to be ready to vote now.

[Teproc]

Oh and yuma, I get your frustration if you're scum. It has to be infuriating to just wait for us to inevitably lynch you and probably win the game after that (assuming I'm right about liopoil/Ichimaru). It's just, you have to understand why we don't want to rush this, right ?

[liopoil]

Actually in that post ichi is slight scum, yuma and robz are slight scum. yeah, I didn't catch all the scum early D1 unfortunately.

And yes, in general I am more inclined towards random lynches than other people are. While I believe they are still a bad idea, I am not convinced that our reads are much better than random.

[xeiron]

Ichimaru Gin

Right from the start of D1 he votes back on Ashersky after Ashersky votes for him.

vote: Ashersky

I believe Ichimaru is more inclided do this as scum. As town, the important thing is to lynch scum, but as scum, lynching anyone is fine.

Well if either/both 2.7 or Voltaire are town--I can see how the claim would look very legitimate from their point of view.
I think I believe Lekkit, as I felt somewhat townie on both of them anyway. Particularly now that the flavor thing has been resolved.
However, I can also see scum playing the angle of making a claim that appears to make things a lot easier for town--especially with how up in the air everything has been. This also has the benefit of scum outing themselves from the lynch pool.
It could be a Lekkit + 2.7/Voltaire scumteam, but I'm not really thinking so right now.

So assuming Lekkit's claim is true, my lynch pool is now.

Robz

mail-mi

Yuma

Liopoil

Teproc

I felt Lekkit was pretty scummy before his claim though, so not completely sold. If it is true though, it effectively cuts the lynch pool down to 6 total, 5 for each player. That's like a 33% decrease in the size of the lynch pool. So if there are 3 scum, our odds are now about 50% of hitting them. So this effectively increases our odds of lynching scum by 17%.

Here he analyzes the remaining lynch pool after Lekkit claims hider.
He concludes with 'about 50% chance of hitting scum'. This is correct from a neural view. From a subjective town perspective, he really have 60% chance (as he also explains). I do believe taking the neutral view is a scummy thing to do.

...

So in order of scummiest first I guess I'd go.

Teproc/Robz

Liopoil

Yuma

Yuma at the bottom I guess, because I haven't seen a real case against him yet.

I think everyone should make a short post with their top scum-read. And we'll see where we stand.

I'll start.

Liopoil

For a period during day 3 he have robz as his top scumread, but when it comes to voting, he goes elsewhere. Liopoil sums it up quite nice with this post:

Robz, you do realize the only way you can be quickhammered is if we are both town? it takes 4 to lynch. there are 3 scum. They need a townie to vote for a townie to be able to quickhammer.

Yeah. I'm wondering if there's even a small chance of lynching anyone but Robz today.
Liopoil has become a lot more scummy to me. So he's actually moved up to #2 with Teproc at #3 as my top scumreads.

At any rate, it will be good to hear from everyone about the Robz lynch, so when he (most hopefully) flips scum. We'll have more to analyze. And if he flips town, well it won't really matter then.

I am willing to vote for Teproc and Liopoil--but I don't see any interest there right now.
The most important thing is--we need to really, really, make sure that Robz is scum! We can't afford another mislynch. Liopoil seems very confident about this, but how can he be that sure? I think he's bussing, or scum is overjoyed that it looks almost certain that we're going to lynch town!Robz today.

nevermind, Ichimaru is scummier than teproc, for sure. Robz is still his #1 scumread it seems, if teproc and I are 2 and 3, yet he is clearly trying to lynch teproc or I.

I'm calling it now then, scumteam is Ichimaru Gin, yuma, and robz.

This is the things that jumped out on me under the reread.
In addition comes the total impression. And the conclution is that Ichimaru have some scummy posts, and many posts that are not especially scummy, but none that i find explicitly towny.
Oh, and then we have his voting history. Ichimaru has voted for almost everyone, except eevee, chairs (both nightkilled early), lekkit/me, and Robz and Yuma. He is on most major wagons as well, conveniently finding people scummy when others also find them scummy. He expresses scumreads on Robz and yuma too. Hwy is it always more convenient to join other wagons?

[xeiron]

conclusion: Ichimaru Gin and yuma is scum
vote: Ichimaru Gin

[Teproc]

Ichimaru first then ? I'm fine with that.

Oh, and he did the analysis from a neutral point of view again on day 4, when he said he was looking at 3/5 instead of 3/4. Mistakes like these can be made by everyone of course, but scum is much more likely to do so, twice even.

[Teproc]

vote: Ichimaru

[xeiron]

I know I promised other rereads as well, but I have problems finding the time for writing more long posts. I will probably drop the rest, and go with my impression instead.

[Teproc]

I mean I'm fairly certain liopoil and I will lynch yuma tomorrow, for better or worse. I'll probably reread yuma beforehand because he's the only one I haven't, but Ichimaru is the one I'm less sure about of the two, so if he does flip scum, I'll be extremely unlikely to change my mind.

[xeiron]

So, I think Vote: Yuma. Ichimaru Gin and Teproc posted within 2 minutes of each other, I wasn't quickhammered. Now, this doesn't totally confirm him as scum, but add that on top of I already was sure enough that he was scum...

The only reservation I might have is that perhaps it is better to lynch yuma tomorrow, but I don't think so actually.

So now people can do their rereads and stuff that they want to do, then people should vote for Yuma. I'll vote for ichimaru gin if both Xeiron and Teproc prefer that lynch.

This makes a Teproc- ichimaru team unlikely.

xeiron, what do you think of Ichimaru's vote on liopoil day 1, putting him at L-2 ? As I said a few posts above, this is making me doubtful of a liopoil/Ichimaru scumteam (and thus doubtful that liopoil is scum at all).

This makes Liopoil - Ichimaru unlikely.

We are left with Ichimaru - Yuma.

[Teproc]

Well, that and liopoil/yuma.

That's my fear at this point. But oh well.

[Teproc]

So, liopoil (or even yuma) will undoubtedly hammer soon.

Just in case : xeiron, do not hide. I'm sure you know this, but it doesn't hurt to say it. You're very likely to be scum's target so it might be tempting to hide behind someone in the hope to be 3v1 tomorrow, but really it's too risky. A desperate yuma could get fancy and try to kill whoever you're hiding behind, not to mention that you might be wrong on who's town (although we've lost already at this point, since I agree with you that the other remaining townie is liopoil).

[Ichimaru Gin]

I mean I'm fairly certain liopoil and I will lynch yuma tomorrow, for better or worse. I'll probably reread yuma beforehand because he's the only one I haven't, but Ichimaru is the one I'm less sure about of the two, so if he does flip scum, I'll be extremely unlikely to change my mind.

When I flip town, changing your mind won't matter.

[liopoil]

Teproc, are you town? if so, I'll hammer.

(note: question is mostly rhetorical, I'm just gonna run through any way you could be scum one more time.)

[Teproc]

Yes, I'm town.

@Ichimaru : Fair enough

[Ichimaru Gin]

If you're deadset on lynching me, I don't think there's anything I can do to avert it at this point.

Out of Teproc's two major lynch-candidates, he said that I'm the one he is less sure about. So why is he going to take the risk of killing me over yuma?
Because he knows I'm town.

[Ichimaru Gin]

And liopoil has sheeped me on the whole "you should only want to lynch your top scumread".
Why doesn't he find Teproc scummy for doing this?

[Teproc]

Because xeiron wants to lynch you. The thing is, if we lynch yuma today, I'll still have to make the choice between you and liopoil tomorrow. And I'll choose to lynch you, so might as well do it now.

[Ichimaru Gin]

I find the whole "are you town?"
Oh "yes I am" to be decidedly scummy.
Really, everyone says their town--all the time, almost whenever they can.

How does this accomplish/confirm anything?

[Teproc]

This is the same thing that made liopoil lynch Robz yesterday (assuming liopoil is town). He was less sure about Robz than about yuma or you, but he did it because he knew, like me, that he would have to make that choice between Robz and me on day 6 anyway.

[liopoil]

Okay, Vote: Ichimaru Gin

(note2: not blindly trusting you here, but a Teproc-Yuma team seems unlikely to me and also if that was the case yuma could quickhammer anyway. Also, you're town.)

The above is not a quickhammer, by the way.

Aaaaaand yuma escapes again. We'll get him tomorrow folks.

PPE:

And liopoil has sheeped me on the whole "you should only want to lynch your top scumread".
Why doesn't he find Teproc scummy for doing this?

lol, I can pull a million quotes from D4 of you not caring who we lynch and me telling you that you should only want to lynch your top scumread.

[Ichimaru Gin]

PPE:

And liopoil has sheeped me on the whole "you should only want to lynch your top scumread".
Why doesn't he find Teproc scummy for doing this?

lol, I can pull a million quotes from D4 of you not caring who we lynch and me telling you that you should only want to lynch your top scumread.

I misused the word there.
Does sheeping actually refer to a case without evidence? I thought it meant something different.
Oh well. Nice job on losing the game.

[liopoil]

Oh well. Nice job on losing the game.

If so, good job Teproc! but I doubt it.