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[liopoil]

random lynch between robz and yuma using the forum system?

actually, I really like this idea. If teproc and one of the ICs agree to do this, we should.

PPE:

Which is ? Something to do with the time stamp ?

no, the forum has a die roll function. So, just for an example, this roll means nothing:

Rolled 1d2 : 2, total 2

PPE2: go ahead, I'll read your case if you make one.

[Robz888]

Oops, it came up yuma, how sad for him. Ready to vote now, yes?

[liopoil]

I would actually be fine with random too. I think my 50% chance of living by random vote is greater than my chance of convincing anyone to listen to me.

except you wouldn't self-vote if you got selected via coinflip.

[xeiron]

I guess I'd rather lynch Robz than yuma. I really don't see a scenario where he is town based on the way this day has gone. I can see it maybe for yuma although I find it highly unlikely as well, especially since I don't see him as a very plausible liopoil partner.

So Robz>yuma>Ichimaru for me.

This is why I think if Teproc is scum, Robz is town, and it is also why I prefer a yuma lynch over a robz lynch. yes, scum would have had a chance to quickhammer if robz was town for a while, but they can never know when I was online to be able to unvote because I am hidden.

I guess Teproc can use the same reasoning to think that if I am scum, yuma is town, but really, for a long time I was pushing the robz lynch.

but otherwise Teproc is right, Robz is the scummiest of the three... I suppose this just means that Teproc is town. If the ICs want robz lynched I'll go with it.

The very same quote by Teproc explains why I prefer to lynch Robz. Yuma could be town if liopoil is scum, and I am more worried about Liopoil being scum than Teproc at the moment.

[liopoil]

xeiron, what do you think about randomly selecting one of robz and yuma?

[xeiron]

xeiron, what do you think about randomly selecting one of robz and yuma?

I do not like it.

I will vote based on reads, not on dice rolls.

[Ichimaru Gin]

xeiron, what do you think about randomly selecting one of robz and yuma?

I do not like it.

I will vote based on reads, not on dice rolls.

I agree that something this important shouldn't be left up to chance.

[yuma]

random lynch between robz and yuma using the forum system?

actually, I really like this idea. If teproc and one of the ICs agree to do this, we should.

PPE:

Which is ? Something to do with the time stamp ?

no, the forum has a die roll function. So, just for an example, this roll means nothing:

This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d2 : 2, total 2

PPE2: go ahead, I'll read your case if you make one.

vote: liopoil

Seriously. He just jumped to the top of my scum read. I don't believe that he as town would be willing to put town's chances of winning on a random chance. Maybe he is just that confident but I don't buy it. At all.

What this looks like to me is an attempt at getting a 50% chance of winning outright for him and his partner Robz. The other 50% isn't that bad to him... his partner gets lynched... and he is still playing tomorrow (and it is what is likely to happen anyways).

I mean look at where we stand. xeiron prefers Robz. 2.7 thinks I might be town. And the lynch has come down to Robz or yuma. And then all of a sudden liopoil suggests a random lynch between the two of us! that is a 50% chance of hitting town! liopoil knows this and if he can convince people to do it, he is either golden and wins or back where he would have been anyways... he convinced robz and teproc to do it and just needed to get xeiron or 2.7 on board...

I have become very convinced at this point that liopoil and robz are partners. I don't know if their other partner is ichimaru or teproc, obviously it has to be one. Either liopoil or robz should be lynched today.

[Robz888]

This is an obvious conspiracy theory that I hope no one takes seriously. Can we lynch yuma now?

[yuma]

This is an obvious conspiracy theory that I hope no one takes seriously. Can we lynch yuma now?

So you really think that putting the game in the hands of random chance is the best way to win...? If you think that you can't be town! Or at the least can't be logically thinking town... (especially since if you are town you know that this has at best a 50% chance or at worst a 0% chance of allowing town to continue this game!)

It only benefits mafia and only mafia I think would support it. How can you not see that and take my concerns seriously? Oh... yeah, cause you are scum and know that you aren't town so there isn't a risk for you. Either you lynch me and win or you get lynched and your teammates still have a chance tomorrow.

[Teproc]

It makes some sense from liopoil's PoV (and mine) but whatever, it can't make sense for xeiron and 2.7 so it's a non-starter.

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 4.3

Yuma (1): Robz888
Liopoil (1): Yuma

Not Voting (5): teproc, xeiron, 2.71828, ichimaru gin, liopoil

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Monday, January 27th at 12 noon

[2.71828.....]

We get a replacement (welcome xeiron) and all sorts of fun stuff happens. 

I am not necessarily tied down to an Ichimaru lynch, as I think that a Robz or Yuma lynch would give us more information as to who the remaining scum are.  I would be willing to vote yuma, but I need a better case from robz than "he is scum."  What scummy stuff has he done?  Or is it the fact that he has not done scummy stuff that makes him scum?  I don't know what meta arguments you might be using or other such inclinations that cause you to think he is scum.  Yuma has been voted for 3 times:
1)  An RVS Ashersky vote
2)  Robz just earlier
3)  Liopoil shortly after

None of these votes have explanations directly attached to them.  And I don't see another case built.

Robz, for example, has some very minor interactions with yuma here, here, here, and here.  Then Robz goes from this:

Lekkit and yuma are I think the most under-suspected players still alive. I don't feel much suspicion for yuma, but Lekkit probably deserves more of a critical eye than he had received so far.

[other stuff]

Townie seeming: Yuma, Voltaire, Ichimaru, liopoil

to this:

Yuma has gotten absolutely zero pressure, which is actually very scummy. He's had a much smaller presence than usual too, ostensibly due to VLA.

to this:

I don't see how yuma could possibly not be scum, at this point.

With nothing in between addressing yuma.  And after nothing at all, except for tunneling.  Like here (slight explanation that he has not recieved any pressure.  The rest don't have anything to them), here, here, here, here, here, and here.

When I read Robz, I can come up with scum narratives such as "I want to tunnel yuma because he is town and I am scum" but I don't come up with those for yuma.  Or things like "I want to build some easy pressure on my partner liopoil early to ease pressure later."  Where is the case against yuma?  I have not seen one, and will not vote for yuma or endorse that lynch until someone lays it out for me.  If the case is purely because he did not receive pressure early than I don't know what to say.  That is not his fault.  Sure, he wasn't as involved as he might usually be because of IRL stuff, but one of the reasons I read him town is that despite all those issues he still got on and contributed more than most people without IRL issues going on.  And not just checking in, but real content.  And no one has anything bad to say about anything he has said.  No case has been brought up concerning his reads, his voting history, or anything.  In my mind, the case was stated best by Ashersky:

vote: yuma because yuma.

[Teproc]

The thing is, while I'm fairly certain yuma is scum, I don't really have a strong case to make. I have arrived to that conclusion through PoE, and most of that is built on the fact that I know I'm town, which of course you can't reasonably assume.

I do think he has been a little scummy today. We have a whole discussion about his reaction to liopoil urging people to vote for Robz (it starts around here) but I'm assuming you've seen that already and it didn't convince you.

So yeah, I can't really make a case on him, unfortunately. I don't expect you to vote for him because of that. Really the only way you could be convinced that yuma is scum would be to get two stronger townreads in the lynch pool, but obviously you think liopoil is scummy so there's that.

[2.71828.....]

I know I'm town, which of course you can't reasonably assume.

yeah.  That is one thing.  I am just much more convinced of Robz than yuma.  You guys can lynch yuma after I am killed tonight (not so sure about that anymore, but still a good chance that I am) but I am not convinced of the PoE on yuma yet.  Maybe after one scum is caught, yuma might appear more scummy, but right now I just don't PoE down to him.  I end on a Robz/Ichi/liopoil right now probably.

[Teproc]

Yep, which is why we'll probably lynch Robz, since xeiron was advocating that as well. I trust liopoil will help even though RObz is the one he's less sure about. Otherwise, I guess yuma might bus anyway.

In fact, I think everyone's ready for a lynch, right ? Let's get this started.

vote: Robz

[2.71828.....]

I do think he has been a little scummy today. We have a whole discussion about his reaction to liopoil urging people to vote for Robz (it starts around here) but I'm assuming you've seen that already and it didn't convince you.

And that conversation was all about you putting words in his mouth.  That is more scumread on you than scumread on yuma there.

[Teproc]

Really ? I know yuma said that, but I don't think I was doing that at all. Confirmation bias might have skewed my vision there, but I really think yuma had a scummy approach.

Oh well. I guess I'll stop bringing it up since I'm the only seeing it.

[2.71828.....]

Deadline: Monday, January 27th at 12 noon

Also, I will not be around for this deadline.  My final vote will be placed on Sunday.

[yuma]

I know I'm town, which of course you can't reasonably assume.

yeah.  That is one thing.  I am just much more convinced of Robz than yuma.  You guys can lynch yuma after I am killed tonight (not so sure about that anymore, but still a good chance that I am) but I am not convinced of the PoE on yuma yet.  Maybe after one scum is caught, yuma might appear more scummy, but right now I just don't PoE down to him.  I end on a Robz/Ichi/liopoil right now probably.

Do you agree with me in regard to liopoil and his suggestion to random vote between Robz and me? I imagine you don't agree with him on it...

[2.71828.....]

Deadline: Monday, January 27th at 12 noon

Also, I will not be around for this deadline.  My final vote will be placed on Sunday.

or earlier if that happens. 

The thing about yuma right now for me is that I probably have a bit of a mafia blind spot for people who are useful and post and do stuff like that.  I know that isn't optimal by a long shot, but it is what it is, I acknowledge it, and work at avoiding it.  When I reread people I don't reread them to find towny things, I reread them to find anything that could possibly be construed as scummy about them.  This may lead to weak cases sometimes (like faust for example) that come to bad endings (like faust for example) but they get somewhere.  In my reread of yuma I am not getting any of those scummy vibes.  Is that because he is good scum at throwing me off, or is it because he is actually town?  I lean actually town. 

PPE: 1

[Ichimaru Gin]

I know I'm town, which of course you can't reasonably assume.

This to me, is one of the defining things that makes Teproc less scummy than Liopoil right now.

[2.71828.....]

I know I'm town, which of course you can't reasonably assume.

yeah.  That is one thing.  I am just much more convinced of Robz than yuma.  You guys can lynch yuma after I am killed tonight (not so sure about that anymore, but still a good chance that I am) but I am not convinced of the PoE on yuma yet.  Maybe after one scum is caught, yuma might appear more scummy, but right now I just don't PoE down to him.  I end on a Robz/Ichi/liopoil right now probably.

Do you agree with me in regard to liopoil and his suggestion to random vote between Robz and me? I imagine you don't agree with him on it...

yeah.  I am not a fan of flipping a coin for a lynch.  I don't think it necessarily makes him scum, but on top of PoE and other stuff against him, I think it does not make him look very towny

[2.71828.....]

I know I'm town, which of course you can't reasonably assume.

This to me, is one of the defining things that makes Teproc less scummy than Liopoil right now.

I do not understand the above statement by Ichimaru.  How does Teproc thinking he is town make you think he is town?

[Ichimaru Gin]

In the sense that Teproc acknowledges that there's no way for other people to know he's town.
While Liopoil seems very sure of himself and just expects people to think he's town.