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[yuma]

So my working theory at the moment is that liopoil is town. This is just based off the interactions that have come about today.

This is what I have seen as I received the e-mail updates...

1. Robz trying to semi-buddy up to liopoil by saying he thinks that liopoil is town to elicit a town read from liopoil (despite liopoil heavily suspecting Robz)... ultimately it failed.

2. teproc really buddying up to liopoil, basically I feel as though teproc has mirrored liopoil. When liopoil wants to go for Robz so does he. When liopoil moves to me, so does teproc. When he wants to go to Ichimaru, so does he. Now... if liopoil is town, this means that the scum team is Ichimaru/Robz/Teproc. So two of those possibilities are bussing, but as long as Teproc can stay on liopoil's good side and not get himself lynched he is pretty golden. (although I saw that Teproc has mildly accused liopoil of doing the buddying instead... so that should at least be looked at closer).

3. liopoil hasn't been swayed by 2.7's move toward other players very much. I think if liopoil were scum he would be more willing to move toward me or Ichimaru or Teproc (again  one is a partner and would be bussing at the least), but he has stayed pat on Robz throughout.

Back to buffy!

[liopoil]

yuma wants to buddy me too? cool!

[2.71828.....]

yuma wants to buddy me too? cool!

yeah, with both Robz and yuma thinking you are town you are basically confirmed town.  (not actually true)

I do like some of the stuff yuma just put out and it is reminding me of why I had a town read on him before Robz came along and caused me to doubt it. 

[liopoil]

To robz and yuma: if you think I'm town, and you are also town, that means Teproc is scum. Why should I believe that Teproc is scum?

[liopoil]

Serious question though, I want you both to try to convince me. Otherwise, I'm sticking with Teproc being the townie and you two and ichimaru are the scum. I don't ask ichimaru because he thinks I'm scum, and so might believe Teproc to be the townie.

[Robz888]

To robz and yuma: if you think I'm town, and you are also town, that means Teproc is scum. Why should I believe that Teproc is scum?

My sense is that he has changed his mind a lot, but not in like a super natural way. He's definitely ready to go whatever way is necessary. Hasn't ruffled feathers. Is perfectly happy to have me lynched. Don't really see any uber-acquitting things about him, certainly.

[Robz888]

For me, it's just sort of POE, since you (lio) are coming across very townie, and yuma and Ichi are scum.

[2.71828.....]

So, e, you're not willing to vote for Robz, and IIRC not for yuma either ?

Ugh. Not sure how we do this then.

I might vote Robz, but I think Liopoil is scummier between Robz/Lio, and while it is not necessarily town/scum here, I think that if Lio flips scum Robz is much less likely to be scum

Either way, any way, Yuma IS scum. He has to be. He is weirdly and totally uniquely STILL ducking serious involvement in this game. THIS IS NOT TOWN YUMA. This is scum yuma, who has been very very lucky. And has benefited from extreme personalities stealing all the focus, and me sitll being around to distract in the endgame.

Whoever the other town is, there is NO way it is yuma. You must all see that.

You must all see that Robz is just spouting stuff out to show that I am scum without backing up any of it.

As far as I can tell Robz hasn't reread me. He hasn't said how I am acting weird. He has said that I am "ducking" serious involvement in this game which just plain pisses me off! I have had far more involvement in this game today than you have!

So mostly this is just Robz trying to get me lynched today instead of him for the win. I mean he hasn't done anything to actually show why I am mafia.... just said it over and over again. Compare to Chocolate Factory where he put a large amount of effort to show that Teproc and Voltaire were scum (along with saying it over and over again).

Robz, what do you have to say about this? I reread D3 of Chocolate Factory and you are definitely different.  Your tunneling there involved quotes, involved proofs, along with the insistence that they were scum.  You were excited town who had figured it out and had caught the scum.  Here it is just insistence that yuma is scum.

[yuma]

Serious question though, I want you both to try to convince me. Otherwise, I'm sticking with Teproc being the townie and you two and ichimaru are the scum. I don't ask ichimaru because he thinks I'm scum, and so might believe Teproc to be the townie.

It's coming!

although I am not too concerned with convincing you honestly... because there is a half decent chance that I am wrong about you (and my read on you is kinda pending a full reread of you coming tomorrow). I am far more concerned with convincing 2.7 and Lekkit. Hopefully whoever is the townie, if it isn't Teproc, will be convinced along with the two ICs.

I am sorry I can't just whip it up and put something with quotes and everything like I used to be able to do at a moment's notice. That just isn't as feasible for me anymore

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 4.1

ichimaru Gin (1): Robz888

Not Voting (6): teproc, Lekkit, 2.71828, yuma, ichimaru gin, liopoil

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Sunday, January 26th at 8 pm

Lekkit has beed prodded

[yuma]

Now... if liopoil is town, this means that the scum team is Ichimaru/Robz/Teproc. So two of those possibilities are bussing, but as long as Teproc can stay on liopoil's good side and not get himself lynched he is pretty golden. (although I saw that Teproc has mildly accused liopoil of doing the buddying instead... so that should at least be looked at closer).

But for this to work that means my previous assumption of Ichimaru and Teproc not being scum buddies (or that at least one of them is town based off their interactions from day2) would have to be false, so that makes me question my town read on liopoil a little bit meaning the scum team would have to be liopoil-Robz-X... Ugh.

[yuma]

Ok:

time to start this, I am going to try and keep this rather simple if possible... One thought for people... am I the only one that is surprised that mafia didn't bus yesterday? I mean I guess they probably did to an extent, but just not enough to get anyone lynched. Because at that point losing a scum mate was pretty high odds... I guess i need to look back at the mail-mi wagon closer, but the question we kinda need to ask is would mafia be more likely to want to vote for mail-mi or would they want to be bussing and were pleasantly surprised when townies (for the most part) lynched mail-mi instead? I don't know if I have an answer to that, but I think in that situation mafia probably starts out of the gate bussing... anyways... on to the reads...

ichimaru
- had interactions with liopoil day1 (was the fourth vote on the mid-day wagon)
- had major interactions with teproc day2. Both obviously voted for each other and there was some pretty heavy dialogue between the two of them. I should mention that teproc had some pressure on ichimaru from day1... "playing up the newb card" I think was how he put it...
- continues the pressure on teproc into day3...
- worth noting that I don't think he ever found robz suspicious until very, very recently. Day3 he says at one point that he is willing to lynch him, but almost everyone is in front of robz at that point. It is also worth noting that robz has basically done the same thing. They almost never talked about each other except to say that they didn't want to lynch each other.
- He basically started the wagon on mail-mi, which if he is scum is very enterprising... I know that when I was scum my first game I didn't really push for wagons myself. I waited until others made them for me (he also created the teproc wagon day2 on teproc...) but that might be more of a personality thing than an alignment thing?
- his posts of today are odd I guess... The 3/5 thing I think is insignificant, as I know that mistake has been made in the past as town.
- but really I think the most compelling piece of evidence here is that his read on Robz was null or town until it had to be scummy...

liopoil
- lurked day1....
- pressure from robz pretty early. Now if Robz is scum, this doesn't surprise me. Robz has been very upfront about the need to get pressure as mafia early game. I think he first talked about this in modern community. Yep, this is what he said, mostly based off what he saw from Wibbley Wobbly Mafia:

Anther thing, I am convinced that it is GOOD to come under suspicion early if you are scum. For a scum person, the longer things go without you getting suspicion, the harder it will be to shake it when you DO get suspicion.

- his reaction to ichimaru's vote was something of: "good point, I am lurking, I'll post more" and even kinda defended ichimaru from ashersky's policy vote.
- I still maintain that my theory that liopoil as town gets angry, liopoil as mafia gets practical, but after I posted it it really doesn't apply as much as he would be aware of it either way. I guess the fact that liopoil hasn't stopped being "practical" says something though to speak toward his townieness now to an extent...
- he thinks his parents are aliens...
- day2 moved robz up to his "would lynch" area. I dont' think he ever voted for him, but put some pressure there...Actually he did vote for robz at one point, but only for 15 posts it looked like the impetuous was that ashersky voted for robz and lekkit voted for ashersky I think. at this point he kinda ignored the case on teproc... basically said "eh, can't remember the case"
- before the lekkit claim his scum reads were "Robz and teproc"
- ok, now we are to the 2.7 flavor thing, which does read town. There is a narrative for why he might do it as mafia as voltaire pointed out
- he has been willing to lynch robz for a long time, and not really without cause.
- was not on the mail-mi lynch, although he said he found him scummy. So as I mentioned before, where is scum going to be in respect to mail-mi. Robz I think is pretty obviously scum in this situation. Liopoil/teproc I am less sure of.



Conclusions:

I find Robz to fit as partners to everyone: teproc*, liopoil, ichimaru. I also have found his play to be scummy.

I find liopoil to be the towniest from play, but I can see him as partners with teproc, ichimaru and liopoil

Ichimaru I see as partners for liopoil and Robz, but not Teproc.

Teproc I see as partners for liopoil and Robz, but not Ichimaru.

So in the end I don't know if I really learned anything new. I think i just solidified that I think Robz is scum and that it would be extremely neglectful to not lynch him today. I don't know about the others unfortunately and fear that tomorrow and the next day may just end up being a crap shoot to hit the right two (although I think I am more confident about teproc than I am about liopoil or ichimaru based off some other stuff I want to mention in a later post as this one is getting long)


*most of my thoughts about teproc and robz are actually more based off earlier yesterday and today where teproc defended robz until basically a few hours ago... and day2 where robz defended teproc and instead pushed through the ashersky lynch.

[Teproc]

I defended Robz until hours ago ? Um, no. I did defend Robz a lot yesterday, but my second post today was all about the scum team was Robz/yuma/x.

[Teproc]

Looking back, it wasn't actually my second post at all, but whatever, I'm talking about the reread I did early in the day.

[yuma]

Your first post, yes:

I'm not sure what to think of Robz's hammer. It's scummy, but my previous arguments for his towniness still look valid to me. I have a bad gut feeling about yuma, but after mail-mi flipped town, I'm not sure what to think anymore.

Oh, and it case it wasn't obvious, we're in lylo. Quickhammering is difficult for scumand probably too risky but still, be careful with your votes.

But others have been more subtle, but I have noticed them...

liopoil is pushing for Robz's lynch. This can mean one of three things :
- both are scum and liopoil wants credit for bussing his partner energetically
- liopoil is scum and really wants to win right now
- liopoil is town and thinks he found scum

In your post above, you are putting emphasis on 1 and 3. If you were town, 2 would be your biggest concern.

this post doesn't directly defend Robz, but I think it is intended to make it look like my scum read on robz was not valid or to make me question it in someway...

and these two:

So, this tells us everyone wants to lynch Robz ? That's a little worrying, but with his super scummy hammer on mail-mi, it would make sense for the scum team to just bus him today. Although why even hammer mail-mi then ? I guess one for one trade is pretty good for scum at this point, especially if they know there are no PRs left (Lekkit is basically a VT now).

The thing is : are we really never going to lynch Robz in the next three days because of that ? I don't think so, so we might as well lynch him today and see if we lose right away.

I could vote Robz now but I guess I'll wait for Lekkit to show up and 2.7 to finish his reread.

Not being suspected can be scummy, but not for yuma. A lot of people give him day 1 passes, and he helped get the game going again on day 2.

Everyone being willing to lynch Robz is scaring me a little, but even if we lynch, say, yuma today, I'll want to lynch Robz next, so I guess we might as well just do it now (not literally) and see how it goes.

Before I go sleep : I'm really sorry to have upset you yuma, it wasn't my intention at all.

PPE : 2.7, have you thought about a massclaim ? Like the flavour claim, it has a pretty high chance of being useless, but I think it's worth doing in the off chance it isn't.

So yeah, it hasn't been as obvious as it was yesterday, but I do feel like you have been pushing my lynch much, much stronger than robz and of late it appears that you are pushing for ichimaru more than robz. You keep saying you are willing to vote for robz, but at the same time aren't...

[Teproc]

Ok, this is ridiculous. I have stated repeatedly that I'm willing to lynch Robz. Yes I would prefer lynching you, because Robz's play is making me paranoid that he might be town, but overall you are both my preferred lynches. I'm not voting for him because we're at lylo and I want to wait for Lekkit to show up, something that I have also said repeatedly.

What you're quoting here is not defending Robz, it's second-guessing.

I'm not pushing for Ichimaru's lynch at all, I would MUCH rather lynch you or Robz. THe fact is though, 2.7 prefers the Ichimaru lynch, and, as I explained earlier, I will lynch whoever the ICs want to lynch in the {Robz, yuma, Ichimaru} pool. I'm less sure about Ichimaru than about you or Robz, but it's a risk I'll have to take at sme point anyway.

Seriously though, saying things like "You keep saying you are willing to vote for robz, but at the same time aren't..." at lylo is incredible. If I were voting for Robz right now, you'd be yelling at me for not respecting the possibility of a quickhammer.

[yuma]

I am not saying it is scummy you aren't voting. No... instead that you want to lynch me more than Robz. When I know I am town this is a big deal to me. It has to be.

If you are mafia and if you are partners with robz. You want to be able to seem like you are willing to vote robz if it comes to that... hence putting him at the top.

But if you are mafia and if you are partners with robz, you would greatly prefer to lynch me first! Because you would win! This is what is raising my flags. You defended Robz yesterday because you could and kinda get away with it. Today, obviously defending Robz wouldn't be a good idea because if he gets lynched and flips scum... you are in trouble!!!! So you have to put him up there, but push for the mislynch of me over him.

[yuma]

add in that Robz has obviously been pushing the hardest to get me lynched, it looks like a conjoined effort on the part of the two of you to try and get me lynched... if it fails then you vote for Robz (saving face) and try again tomorrow to get me lynched the next day

[Teproc]

Ok, that makes more sense I guess. But I can't really do much to respond to that. It's kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

And I don't think the quotes you have here actually show me defending Robz. It shows me being paranoid. The first one I don't necessarily want to go over again, but it has nothing to do with Robz really, and in the two other ones I'm still clearly stating that I want to lynch him despite some reservations. I guess if I was a scum mastermind I would want to be subtle about it in that way, but again, there's not much I can respond to that.

[2.71828.....]

I have been rereading some and I think that it is very possible for Robz and Ichimaru to be scum together.  Robz has done zero evaluation of Ichimaru the entire game, and he has admitted to it saying it is because Ichimaru is new.  However, Robz has had absolutely zero analysis of Ichimaru even in later days.  He then votes for him out of the blue after I voted Ichimaru.  I don't like it. 

I think scum right now is Robz and Ichimaru.

I really think yuma is town, but there is that nagging sensation that both he and robz are town and they are pulling off a great stunt for all of us to see.  However, I doubt that based on yuma from the rest of the game.

Liopoil is an interesting case.  Robz started the wagon on him, which got to L-2, and then Robz was the first to unvote.  Ichimaru was the L-2 vote against Liopoil.  Now, was Robz trying to protect his partner from being in a dangerous position on that wagon?  Or was Robz unvoting because his scum partner liopoil was getting too close to a lynch?  If the second is the case then what do we think about Ichimaru now?  Right now I think that liopoil is town, but that is a tentative read.

Which means that if Liopoil and Yuma are both town, Teproc must be scum.  Then we run into the situation that Yuma talks about how Teproc and Ichimaru are probably not scum together.  I believe most of that stems from their play on D2 and D3 I guess?  I need to go back and look at that interaction again, but right now I am comfortable thinking scum are Robz/Teproc/Ichimaru

[liopoil]

Why do you think yuma is town again?

[yuma]

I believe most of that stems from their play on D2 and D3 I guess?  I need to go back and look at that interaction again, but right now I am comfortable thinking scum are Robz/Teproc/Ichimaru

Well if you look at it, basically what happens is that:

1. Teproc starts out with a mild scum read on Ichimaru day1 (doesn't vote) but puts some pressure on him at a time when no one else does... this is rather null as it very well could be one scum mildly bussing the other (especially if Robz--who I think would be their partner in this scenario, as do you...--gave a pregame lecture about the importance of making sure they got some amount of pressure early, but that is purely conjecture I suppose... liopoil did Robz mention this idea in ToyStory as I am only remembering it from ModernCommunity) (just noticed this as I was rereading that toward the end of day teproc puts ichimaru in his won't lynch category despite the earlier scum read...

2. Teproc continues that scum read on Ichimaru, this time with a vote. Ichimaru reacts back with what I would still call a OMGUS vote--he eventually gives a full read for it and Teproc backs off. Again, this is kinda null... maybe even more on the scum partners side of things, as both vote for each other at a time when there isn't much focus on them except for what each other is brining as instead everyone is talking about ashersky I believe, except!!!!

3. Except, Ichimaru continues to vote for Teproc until the end of day and while he says he is willing to vote for and then hammer ashersky but he doesn't... I think if they are partners there is a strong possibility that teproc would have moved away from Teproc to ashersky to ensure that his partner didn't end up getting lynched as he had both the opportunity and the cause as ichimaru had a scum read on ashersky from earlier and an earlier vote...* That is I think for a newbie player it would have taken a stronger resolve than I had as a newbie scum back in the day to stay on partner!Teproc throughout all of that. So, yes, maybe ichimaru had that resolve as scum to continue to buss when their was a clear mislynch opportunity presented, but I don't know if I would call it likely...

So instead I think the narrative, if I look solely at this situation, is that ichimaru was either:

1. scum who wanted to stay off wagon from the ashersky wagon, which he knew would be a mislynch
2. or town who was correctly on scum (of course he didn't know that)

and not of 3. ichimaru being scum and continuing to vote for his partner at that time

*note that as I am reading back this actually isn't true, ichimaru never voted for ashersky day2 and actually throughout most of the day had a town read on ashersky until very late, so this might change my thinking a bit as ichimaru seems to suddenly be willing to lynch ashersky when it has become obvious that the lynch is going to be either ash or teproc, but ultimately doesn't have to as ashersky hammered himself.

[Teproc]

Well if you look at it, basically what happens is that:

1. Teproc starts out with a mild scum read on Ichimaru day1 (doesn't vote) but puts some pressure on him at a time when no one else does... this is rather null as it very well could be one scum mildly bussing the other (especially if Robz--who I think would be their partner in this scenario, as do you...--gave a pregame lecture about the importance of making sure they got some amount of pressure early, but that is purely conjecture I suppose... liopoil did Robz mention this idea in ToyStory as I am only remembering it from ModernCommunity) (just noticed this as I was rereading that toward the end of day teproc puts ichimaru in his won't lynch category despite the earlier scum read...

The reason for Ichimaru being in my "won't lynch" category is that I agreed to give him a newbie pass for D1. If not, he would definitely have been in my lynch pool at that point.

I'm interested in what makes 2.7 think yuma is town. While he's done pro-town things (like getting the game back on track day 2), I've never seen him as particularly townie this game.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Just checking in. I'll have much more time to post after Thursday.

I see that Lekkit still hasn't showed up. With him being an IC and all, it would be nice to hear from him.

Everyone seems to have their own idea for who we should lynch. Man, at this point, even with the lynch pool as small as it is, I still feel like scum is evading us.

Still, our odds are better than ever. If we hit scum today, we aren't necessarily out of the park, but we have a lot better chances.

You know, not actually having witnessed stuff yet, I feel like once town hits one scum, it should be a lot easier to catch the rest of them.

Like if we can hit scum today, we'll have concrete reads that we can then analyze over all of the previous days.

Anyway, when I come back, I should have a reread done--something I haven't done in a little while. I'm feeling a little less sure on Lio, but I'll have to go back and check.

Deadline is the 26th?

Well, the important thing is we lynch because we're really sure that person's scum--not because of deadline constraints.

[Lekkit]

I'll be on a bit later today. I'm still alive, but have a lot on my plate right now.