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Author Topic: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs(Town wins!)  (Read 202014 times)

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1975 on: January 20, 2014, 02:18:19 pm »


PPE: You're fine with robz being the lynch today even though I'm your top scumread now? if getting it right is so important (it is) then shouldn't you be only okay with me being the lynch?


Yeah. Cause at this point, I'm pretty sure Robz is scum too.
Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.
As long as we lynch one of my top 3 scumreads today. I feel that the odds are pretty good.

Why would only have one person I would consider lynching, when I know there are 3 scum--and I have a pretty good feeling who they are?

PPE: 2

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1976 on: January 20, 2014, 02:19:43 pm »

Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.

It would actually be a 3/4 shot if you were indeed town, which I do not believe.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1977 on: January 20, 2014, 02:22:05 pm »

Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.

It would actually be a 3/4 shot if you were indeed town, which I do not believe.

No. You're right. Which makes liopoil's comment even more scummy in my mind.

But not on the second part.

(I'd put a smiley here, but you know).

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1978 on: January 20, 2014, 02:23:40 pm »

Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.

It would actually be a 3/4 shot if you were indeed town, which I do not believe.

No. You're right. Which makes liopoil's comment even more scummy in my mind.

Why is liopoil scummier for his comment because of this?  Simply PoE?
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1979 on: January 20, 2014, 02:28:03 pm »

Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.

It would actually be a 3/4 shot if you were indeed town, which I do not believe.

No. You're right. Which makes liopoil's comment even more scummy in my mind.

Why is liopoil scummier for his comment because of this?  Simply PoE?

Well that's part of it.

But I just found this comment to be really scummy.

You're fine with robz being the lynch today even though I'm your top scumread now? if getting it right is so important (it is) then shouldn't you be only okay with me being the lynch?


When I know I have a 75% chance of hitting scum, why should I follow liopoil and only have one lynch I'll support?
It just seems like he's trying to limit people to only one lynch candidate, which strikes me as strange. And ultimately scummy.

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1980 on: January 20, 2014, 02:30:46 pm »


PPE: You're fine with robz being the lynch today even though I'm your top scumread now? if getting it right is so important (it is) then shouldn't you be only okay with me being the lynch?


Yeah. Cause at this point, I'm pretty sure Robz is scum too.
Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.
As long as we lynch one of my top 3 scumreads today. I feel that the odds are pretty good.

Why would only have one person I would consider lynching, when I know there are 3 scum--and I have a pretty good feeling who they are?

PPE: 2
so lemme get this straight: we should be really careful who we lynch, but in the end it really doesn't matter to you who we lynch as long as it isn't you or yuma? so why are you telling people to be cautious and to consider voting me or teproc instead?

but no, we shouldn't just lynch one of your three scumreads. You should want to lynch your strongest scumread. For sure. Even if they are close in how confident you are. Like you yourself said, we have to get this right, so we should pick the player which gives us the best chance of getting it right.

You can't say that we need to be really careful and make sure that we're sure that the player we lynch is scum and then go on to say that since all of the other players have a 75% chance of being scum we can just pick one and have good chances. No, we should pick the player who has an even better than 75% chance of being scum. (based on reads)

And yeah, 3/4, and you thinking it's 3/5 is another reason to suspect you. I said 3/5 because that was from the views of the ICs.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1981 on: January 20, 2014, 02:47:05 pm »


PPE: You're fine with robz being the lynch today even though I'm your top scumread now? if getting it right is so important (it is) then shouldn't you be only okay with me being the lynch?


Yeah. Cause at this point, I'm pretty sure Robz is scum too.
Since I know I'm town, I have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum.
As long as we lynch one of my top 3 scumreads today. I feel that the odds are pretty good.

Why would only have one person I would consider lynching, when I know there are 3 scum--and I have a pretty good feeling who they are?

PPE: 2
so lemme get this straight: we should be really careful who we lynch, but in the end it really doesn't matter to you who we lynch as long as it isn't you or yuma? so why are you telling people to be cautious and to consider voting me or teproc instead?

but no, we shouldn't just lynch one of your three scumreads. You should want to lynch your strongest scumread. For sure. Even if they are close in how confident you are. Like you yourself said, we have to get this right, so we should pick the player which gives us the best chance of getting it right.

You can't say that we need to be really careful and make sure that we're sure that the player we lynch is scum and then go on to say that since all of the other players have a 75% chance of being scum we can just pick one and have good chances. No, we should pick the player who has an even better than 75% chance of being scum. (based on reads)

And yeah, 3/4, and you thinking it's 3/5 is another reason to suspect you. I said 3/5 because that was from the views of the ICs.

There are 5 people left in the lynch pool basically. I never recommended that we be "really careful". Just more careful than picking a single person and sheeping them all day regardless of any development.

I have said nothing about not lynching Yuma. I think a case on him is long overdue, but as of now, no one has made one.

Liopoil, if you are in fact town, your certainty on Robz is justified. I just don't think you're town. I think you are either bussing, or over-zealous at the prospect of lynch town!Robz, which will win you the game.


Yes, ideally, my top scumread would be the one to get lynched. However, I alone cannot make that happen. So if I see a wagon gravitating towards one of my top scumreads (which are relatively close), I will support it.
There is a chance that your lynch will not occur today. If it looks like you aren't going to get lynched, that does not mean I am going to spend the whole day in futility, trying to start a lynch that just isn't going to happen. Simply because it's my top scum read.

And now me making an honest statistical mistake is scummy? Really.

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1982 on: January 20, 2014, 02:47:57 pm »

I think everyone should make a short post with their top scum-read. And we'll see where we stand.

I'll start.

Liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1983 on: January 20, 2014, 03:01:55 pm »

I think everyone should make a short post with their top scum-read. And we'll see where we stand.

I'll start.

Liopoil

Yeah, not a huge fan of this.  I prefer posting your top two scum reads or even better your top 3 scum reads.  But Ichimaru asks, and Ichimaru will recieve. 

vote: Ichimaru Gin
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1984 on: January 20, 2014, 03:07:38 pm »

e, please unvote.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1985 on: January 20, 2014, 03:08:52 pm »

or at least get an unvote ready in another tab, and unvote as soon as someone else votes for ichimaru, or whenever you need to leave. I'm working on the robz case, almost through D3.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1986 on: January 20, 2014, 03:12:23 pm »

I will unvote quickly if need be
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1987 on: January 20, 2014, 03:23:21 pm »

Robz reread, only including posts I think aren't null. Only quoting when neccessary:

- When ash and e flavorclaim early, makes a couple posts acknowledging that they claimed these flavornames and is aware of this.
- puts some early light suspicion on yuma, but then gives him a D1 pass anyway. Points to them being partners.
- suspects me D1 for lurking, like D1 in toy story, which fair reasoning and all. No suspicion for this... yet. No suspicion because this can just as easily be town making a comparison to a game that just finished and is fresher in his mind as it can be scum looking for a relatively easy mislynch. (because I get wagons on me D1 a lot)
- lessens suspicion of me later D1, which I had forgotten
-
Lying town is not really a possibility.
hehe... (note, this isn't part of the reread, just had to post this)
- gets distracted by faust and all, but then actually votes for e... suspcious I think, not just because e is town, because it looks like he's trying to be off-wagon. But then he goes back to faust after he retracts the claim.
- I still find his stances on ash scummy somehow. I know I got it wrong too, in pretty much the same way as robz..... I just feel like he would have realized this was town ash. All he says though is that it could be town ash, and I feel like robz would feel more strongly one way or another. Hard to explain, and I may be totally wrong here.
- He forgot why he suspected me, even though he made several posts about me D1.
- e, have you forgotten this?
liopoil- I like his response to the case brought against him by yuma.  Looking back I don't really feel like lynching him all too much, but if we need a lynch I might be persuaded to vote him on the 2nd.  I also think he has an interesting point about Robz.

In fact, Robz? Here is some stuff on him- Opens up the liopoil case that "scum!lio struggles early but plays better late."  Gets a bunch of sheep.  He originally gives slight credence to my Faust case, but then is turned off the case by Ashersky.  He throws out his vote for sale here saying he is concerned about a bad D1.  Jumps to Lekkit for a lurker lynch temporarily before realizing Lekkit wasn't really lurking just posting less frequently but still with content, then moves to Eevee as his lurker lynch after I point out that Eevee is more of a lurker.  Throws his vote out for sale again.  Has the whole episode of "wait no one post info about the setup because it might help scum!faust with a fakeclaim." (starting here)  He then jumps onto the little wagon against me for a bit here before Faust reveals that he was lying about his fakeclaim.  Robz then ends the day with his vote on me, after unvoting Faust to avoid ending the day before some people could comment.  I recognize his "D1s are famously lacksadaisical" (to quote Ash from BM14 since he put it so nicely in the role PM) but putting his vote up for sale? twice?  His D2 has not been great but no one has really stood out too much as being amazing, and I think he can probably (safely) trust that his meta will carry him through and avoid a lynch.

So this has been long and winding and a bunch of people posted while I was typing this, but I think it lands me at vote: Robz.  I am not comfortable with the way he went through D1, and he has not done anything today to shake that feeling.
- when chairs claims tracker he immediately throws a quote from DS9 as a reason to not necessarily trust chairs. He doesn't want to full out disbelieve him, because that won't work, just wants to discredit him a bit I think here, so he can push the ash lynch through.
-
Lekkit's claim puts us back in the game... I think. We should not write him off as scum, though. I think he could have anticipated getting heat today--he was sort of the least scrutinized player--and planned to do this claim, probably along with ONE of his partners. (With zero of his partners would be pretty bad for the team, with TWO of the partners very nice if it pays off but probably risky.) With one, you know you're very likely to get the oher guy, a townie, on your side.  I could see scum!Lekkit doing this if his partner is one of Voltaire/2.7 and then like, the least likely person to be lynched from the other pool, maybe yuma.

Well, okay, this would mean Voltaire or 2.7 would be scum. I do think 2.7 seems less likely to be scum because of the mod error, though, and Voltaire has been my strongest town read.

I mean, if Lekkit is scum, this move just won the game. But we might be in the position where we can't really afford to play like that's what happened, if we think it's the less likely thing. It's probably the less likely thing.

Okay, who does this leave? Yuma, mail-mi, Teproc, Ichimaru, liopoil... What a nicely smaller pool.
he's now doubted all three of our PR claims
- completely forgot about ash being zhang fei and e being zhuge liang, even though he like I said before he was clearly aware of it earlier. even made a comment about ash being zhuge liang.
-
Uh, I'm behind. Sorry, I know that's not helping, and I'm not helping. Is there something I should do, or answer, other than re-read and give reads?
his last post before the hammer. 12th at 3:46 pm. At the time there is one vote on mail-mi.
-
I am clearly overthinking this now. vote: mail-mi and I'm done for today, unless I need to change my vote to someone else we like.
puts mail-mi at L-1. 13th at 1:09 pm.

-
Okay, I have re-read.

Vote: Mail-mi, because he is the most scummy suspect, and because I am the alternative lynch.
25 minutes later he appears from nowhere, claims to have reread (not sure I trust this at all) and hammers. Super scummy. He was the only other option, and doing this puts his scumteam in great shape, just needing town to fail to lynch 3 scum in a row. I think he is pouncing on this opportunity as scum. As town, I think he'd at least state intent to hammer. Sure he wants to avoid the mislynch, but this just seems so much less plausible than him just being scum.

-
Voltaire, was killed in the night, he was Sun Quan, a vanilla townie.

this really points to robz being scum too. Voltaire suspected robz a lot before switching to mail-mi, and said that the hammer is scummy as **** if mail-mi flips town. Robz also does not like playing against IC voltaire when he is scum. I think if robz wasn't scum then e would be more likely to die because he is more obvtown b/c of the flavor thing and b/c they could get voltaire to vote for robz for the win.

And that's just about it. Everything D4 of robz is pretty null.

So maybe more like 90% sure robz is scum. The later stuff with the voltaire death and the hammer is super duper scummy.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1988 on: January 20, 2014, 03:25:27 pm »

And..... that's why e should unvote. We lose if ichimaru is town. Which is likely, but less likely than robz being scum.

I'm not going to vote for robz right now though, because right now either scum can quickhammer or ichimaru is scum. If scum can quickhammer we lose, and if ichimaru is scum we should lynch him instead of robz, because robz isn't quite 100% scum.

however, I hope e reconsiders.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1989 on: January 20, 2014, 03:28:10 pm »

unvote because I am playing dominion right now and havent read the case against robz
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1990 on: January 20, 2014, 03:29:49 pm »

and of course I can be more confident than everyone else can in robz being scum because I know that if he is town then scum missed a quickhammer opportunity. but unfortunately nobody else can trust that, so I left it out of the case.

PPE: thank you.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1991 on: January 20, 2014, 03:36:38 pm »

Vote: Ichimaru Gin
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1992 on: January 20, 2014, 03:38:39 pm »

Vote: Ichimaru Gin
O.o

good thing e unvoted!
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1993 on: January 20, 2014, 03:50:08 pm »

Oh, I missed that he did.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1994 on: January 20, 2014, 03:52:03 pm »

okay, NOW we have to lynch robz, right?

this doesn't necessarily mean ichimaru is town though.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1995 on: January 20, 2014, 03:53:03 pm »

Vote: Robz888
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1996 on: January 20, 2014, 03:53:30 pm »

?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1997 on: January 20, 2014, 03:54:30 pm »

I'm confused.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1998 on: January 20, 2014, 03:55:39 pm »

what do you mean "?". You tried to quickhammer ichimaru. No other reason for you to vote for him. Pretty clear that you wanted to lynch yuma, not ichi. No reason for you to vote w/out explanation.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1999 on: January 20, 2014, 03:56:50 pm »

Well, that's prety damning Robz. Also, the last few posts by Ichimaru and liopoil have me increasingly convinced that liopoil is the townie in that pairing.

Yeah, we should lynch Robz today, definitely.
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