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Author Topic: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs(Town wins!)  (Read 202103 times)

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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1875 on: January 17, 2014, 06:35:02 am »

You're not scummy by virtue of being alive, you're summy by virtue of your hammer on mail-mi. You even acknowledged it in twilight !

Why does yuma being alive make him particularly scummy, because he gets NKed by scum usually ? I disagree with that, since N1 they went PR hunting (succesfully), N2 they shot the claimed Tracker, N3 they shot an IC.

I do agree with him being less present than usual though, which is scummy.

Off to reread. I guess my job is easy, I just have to find the one guy who's town among the four of you.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1876 on: January 17, 2014, 06:42:39 am »

In the meantime, shouldn't we flavor claim ? I guess it's up to 2.7 and Lekkit, but it can't really cost us much right ? I doubt it'll be particularly useful but we should maybe do it just in case, especially since it seems like there are a lot of people who were anti-claim (myself included) in the lynch pool (everyone except Robz basically).
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1877 on: January 17, 2014, 07:32:45 am »

isn't it still possible that we have PRs?? heck, we could have a SK! We could have two more PRs!

so no, flavorclaim still isn't worth it.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1878 on: January 17, 2014, 07:34:18 am »

We have established that flavour doesn't relate to PRness. And it is highly doubtful that we have a SK with THREE 1 kill nights.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1879 on: January 17, 2014, 07:35:32 am »

robz, do you not realize that if you're town, and lekkit is town, then either I'm scum or scum can quickhammer? I don't see how you can think that yuma is more likely scum than me.

the being alive late in the game doesn't really apply - there was no way either of you were getting NKed last night anyway.

Highly doubtful, yes, but for all we know we could have a doctor/jailkeeper.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1880 on: January 17, 2014, 07:38:05 am »

A Doctor/Jailkeeper who has been succesful three times (well, some of those could have been crossfire with the mafia) and hasn't come forward to clear someone ? I mean sure, there are scenarios in which it's possible, but it's very unlikely.

And I'm not sure what the likelihood of a SK has to do with flavour claiming anyway.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1881 on: January 17, 2014, 08:09:08 am »

isn't it still possible that we have PRs?? heck, we could have a SK! We could have two more PRs!

so no, flavorclaim still isn't worth it.

This is ridiculous.  There is no way (well, not mathematically impossible, but I mean, it just isnt that case) we have two more PRs, and the simple fact that liopoil thinks this makes me think he is much scummier
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1882 on: January 17, 2014, 08:14:23 am »

isn't it still possible that we have PRs?? heck, we could have a SK! We could have two more PRs!

so no, flavorclaim still isn't worth it.

This is ridiculous.  There is no way (well, not mathematically impossible, but I mean, it just isnt that case) we have two more PRs, and the simple fact that liopoil thinks this makes me think he is much scummier

Why ? We could have two more PRs, like a Vengeful and a Doctor. If the Doctor never targeted anyone relevant, he has no reason to claim. One-Shot Commuter is also a possibility that would have no particular reason to claim either.

In any case, I think this is not a thing we should be talking about. I don't think much good can come out of it for town, we're only giving info to scum here.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1883 on: January 17, 2014, 08:19:19 am »

isn't it still possible that we have PRs?? heck, we could have a SK! We could have two more PRs!

so no, flavorclaim still isn't worth it.

This is ridiculous.  There is no way (well, not mathematically impossible, but I mean, it just isnt that case) we have two more PRs, and the simple fact that liopoil thinks this makes me think he is much scummier

Because if he is a VT, for this to be true, myself and town!somebody both have to be PRs.  I want liopoil to full claim.  I want him to say his flavor, whether he is VT, scum (wishful thinking), or a PR.  I mean, trying to throw us down this rabbit trail is ridiculous.  We know the setup now.  We rolled 3 PRs, so scum have a Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT.  Simple as that. 

In fact, I want everyone to flavor claim.  Liopoil is the only one who needs to tell us if he is VT, PR, or scum, but I want everyone to give their flavor.  If you guys want to wait to see if Lekkit thinks similarly that is fine, but that is where I stand.

PPE: 1
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1884 on: January 17, 2014, 08:24:16 am »

As I said, I agree with this. I am Han Dang (Wu / Red)
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1885 on: January 17, 2014, 09:04:10 am »

I think if we're making liopoil fullclaim, we should make everyone fullclaim actually, and let the ICs decide of the order in which we do it.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1886 on: January 17, 2014, 01:13:55 pm »

I am Huang Gai.

I am also on a train with limited access.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1887 on: January 17, 2014, 02:17:25 pm »

After doing a full reread of liopoil/Robz/yuma/Ichimaru, here's what I think.

Taking a look at the liopoil wagon on day 1. It was initially driven by Robz who noticed liopoil behaving in the same way that he did in Toy Story, where he was Robz's scummbuddy. yuma hops on the wagon third, saying we need a wagon, and Ichimaru peaks the wagon at L-2, pretty much sheeping Robz (notably using very similar turn of phrases)

Then Robz unvotes, saying both liopoil and mail-mi are both "too easy". I know for a fact that one of them at least is scum, so is it a bus that worked a little too well, or an attempt at a mislynch ?

If it's a bus, the third partner (yuma or Ichi) is also on wagon. In that case, yuma would be more likely since he's earlier on the wagon. Ichimaru is less likely because I assume one of the things a partner would have said to him night 0 is that bussing day 1 is generally a bad idea. Putting your partner at L-2 is pretty risky business, not something I see scum!Ichimaru doing.

If Robz is town, then the other three are scum, and both yuma and Ichimaru bussed liopoil. Again, I don't see the Ichimaru bus happening here.

Based on this, I don't think Ichimaru and liopoil can realistically be scum together, which means Robz and yuma are scum. liopoil has been more townie this game, so the scum team I see as the most likely coming out of this wagon is Robz/yuma/Ichimaru.

Once I got there, the game made a lot of sense to me, so I reread the rest of the thread with that scum team in mind.

Day 2, I think scum identified ash as an easy mislynch because of the faust flip. Right out of the gates, Robz and Ichimaru are all about ash's scumminess. Ichimaru doesn't actually vote for ash, but what he does is put 2.7 at L-1 without announcing L-1. In that post post though, he is still saying that ash is scummy for his overconfidence on day 1.

In fact, Ichi's whole behavior regarding ash is scummy, and I'm surprised no one (myself included) has picked up on that. He starts by pointing out how scummy it is that ash was 100% sure about a confirmed townie's scumminess, then says he doesn't want to vote for ash, and finallycomes around to voting for ash, even threatening to hammer by the end.

Based on this, Ichimaru seems like the most likely partner for Robz/yuma.

Those two (Robz and yuma) have very little interaction, except for this vote. After creating a wagon on me, yuma votes for Robz because he's unwilling to join it, ostensibly because Robz is tunneling on ash. This is a pretty safe vote (Robz only has one vote on him before this), and yuma switches to Lekkit pretty quickly. It can in fact be read as yuma trying to get Robz to join the wagon on me because, for whatever reason, yuma would rather lynch me than ash ? In any case, I found that vote pretty weird at the time (seemed more like a mail-mi vote than a yuma vote), and this seems like a reasonable explanation of it to me.

At this point, I would lynch Robz/yuma today, then lynch the other one tomorrow, and then let the poor soul left alive (might be me, actually, since 2.7 and Lekkit are the obvious NKs) to decide between liopoil and Ichimaru.

I'm not going to vote before we get all the claiming done, but I actually feel good about this game now, it finallymakes sense to me.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1888 on: January 17, 2014, 02:26:23 pm »

^That's all pretty good, except that I'm not scum. Yuma definitely is, though, and Ichi probably is.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1889 on: January 17, 2014, 04:08:38 pm »

I am Da Qiao (Kingdom of Wu).

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1890 on: January 17, 2014, 04:14:17 pm »

What the heck? I don't think we have any more PRs, just saying it's possible and a non-zero probability. I see nothing for us to gain via flavorclaim. I don't think it's been verified that flavor is completely unrealated to role, and I see nothing that town has to gain from my claim. I am in no way sending town on a wild goose chase, I don't even know what that would be.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1891 on: January 17, 2014, 04:16:03 pm »

I don't really see the benefit in it, but I thought everyone was doing this?

It seems like there's a small chance of outing scum based on flavor. I mean, maybe they mess up their alignment or something.

Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1892 on: January 17, 2014, 04:18:04 pm »

Why are you so against a flavour claim ? Looking at Ichi and Robz's claim, I don't think it's going to be particularly useful but I don't see why you're so strongly against it. I highly doubt there's any reason for you not to flavour claim.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1893 on: January 17, 2014, 04:20:13 pm »

I could almost see this as scum trying to hint PR or something. Which doesn't make a lot of sense, but I think is still possible.
Like "Oh, are we *sure* that flavorclaim doesn't reveal PR-ness". Hmm. Scummy.

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1894 on: January 17, 2014, 04:23:46 pm »

So. I could see a Teproc/Robz/X scumteam. The way Teproc kinda flipped his feeling towards Robz (Post: 1719). After feeling kinda scummy about him for most of the game--this strikes me as scummy.

Out of my lynch pool of

Robz

Teproc

Yuma

Liopoil

Odds are there's only one town in that group. Unfortunately we can't afford to mislynch again--so we better choose carefully.

Although even semi-IC's can obviously be wrong, I generally trust their reads over the people in the lynch pool--as we know the majority of them to be scum. I think e's been doing a pretty good job of staying active, but Lekkit is still lurking.

Teproc and Robz are my top scumreads right now. Awhile ago, Teproc mentioned the lack of suspicion on Yuma, I find Yuma scummy for this.

Yuma is interesting, just because I feel like he's passed almost completely under everyone's radar. Is someone working on forming a case against him?


So in order of scummiest first I guess I'd go.

Teproc/Robz

Liopoil

Yuma

Yuma at the bottom I guess, because I haven't seen a real case against him yet.

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1895 on: January 17, 2014, 04:39:47 pm »

Most likely a flavorclaim wouldn't do anything, but that's not a reason to do it. I think it's more likely that it outs a PR/absence of PR than it outs scum. both are highly unlikely though. Especially if there somehow is a doc/JK and SK, that SK would love to know who that player is.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1896 on: January 17, 2014, 04:43:14 pm »

This was my argument against flavour claiming day 1. Based on flips so far, it is clear that PRs are not distinguishable from VTs.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1897 on: January 17, 2014, 04:44:25 pm »

Also, scum has not quickhammered, so this pretty much confirms for me that robz is scum. while all three haven't been online at the same time, I would expect a slow-mo quickhammer of sorts
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1898 on: January 17, 2014, 04:44:41 pm »

This was my argument against flavour claiming day 1. Based on flips so far, it is clear that PRs are not distinguishable from VTs.
Is it? show me.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #1899 on: January 17, 2014, 05:00:43 pm »

I guess I'm trusting Robz on this one, which yeah, he's probably scum, but I think lying about flavour is a little dangerous fr him to do. I asked him early day 3, and he said this :

Robz, do the flavor names we've gotten from flips so far confirm that flavor isn't indicative of PRness ?

I think, basically yes, flavor doesn't tell us much. I mean these characters are all generals in a war, they can all be vageuly rationalized in one way or another, like, "Oh, he kept his army safe--Doctor! Oh, he led an ambush unit, Hider!" Pang Tong feigned defection to Cao Cao's forces and advised him to chain his ships together, ostensibly to prevent seasickness but actually because this made it easier or the fire attack to destroy Cao Cao's navy. in our game he's the Tracker so... yeah I not much of a connection, it seems to me.

It's also certainly true that important flavor role does not equal PR. Or else Ash/Zhuge Liang would have been one.

I checked and what he said about Pang Tong is true. ash turned out not to be Zhuge Liang (that would be 2.7), so I guess we can disregard that.

Looking at the wiki for Lu Su, Eevee's flavour name, I see nothing indicating that he could be a Rolecop.

Oh, and Lekkit's flavour name was analyzed by Robz here :

I'm Xiaqiao. Town Hider. I've hid behind 2.7 and Voltaire. In that order. They are both town.

My mistake. Xiao Qiao is the wife of Zhou Yu, who is Commander-in-Chief of the Wu forces. Her twin sister is Da Qiao. They are known througout the land for their beauty.

Xiao Qiao knew Cao Cao, evil ruler of Wei, when they were both children. Legend states that he was still in love with her, and wished to take her and her sister back to his city after the battle, and put lock them inside a tower.

In the novel, Zhuge Liang, the Shu strategist, tricked Zhou Yu into supporting the war against Cao Cao by telling him that Cao Cao desired his wife, Xiao Qiao. From that moment on, Zhou Yu sweared that either he would die, or Cao Cao would die.

I'm not sure I see Hider in there anyway, but Xiao Qiao is more a Hider than a Role Cop or something, I guess.
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