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[mcmcsalot]

Night 3 has ended!

Voltaire, was killed in the night, he was Sun Quan, a vanilla townie.

Day 4 begins!

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (7): teproc, Robz, Lekkit, 2.71828, yuma, ichimaru gin, liopoil

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Sunday, January 26th at 8 pm

[Teproc]

I'm a little paranoid, so I went and checked if there was a possible situation where scum would have Lekkit fakeclaim Hider.

1) They wouldn't do it if their team is Goon/Bus Driver/JOAT because they don't know that much about the setup in that case (that's the 2 or 0 Ts possibilities)
2) If the scum team is Goon/Goon/JOAT (ie 4 Ts), if they assume no Serial Killer because, well, they have good reason to, they're looking at 4 possibilities :
- TTTTIPR : Only PR left is a Doctor or Jailkeeper
- TTTTIKR : Only PR left is a Vigilante or Vengeful
- TTTTIIR : Only PR left is a One-Shot Tracker
- TTTTIHR : Only PR left is a Hider

None of the above 3 would have good reasons to out themselves. A Vigilante is somewhat unlikely, but there's no way of knowing if there's a Vengeful somewhere, so I'd say all of these are equally possible in the eyes of scum at that point (day 2, but they would have talked about it night 2 obviously). So if they fakeclaim Hider, it's a 25% chance of being counterclaimed.

I wouldn't take that risk as scum when things were already going pretty well, so I'm still in full belief of Lekkit's claim. Which means I have a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Given how terrible my reads have been this game, I certainly need that to get it right...

I'm not sure what to think of Robz's hammer. It's scummy, but my previous arguments for his towniness still look valid to me. I have a bad gut feeling about yuma, but after mail-mi flipped town, I'm not sure what to think anymore.

Oh, and it case it wasn't obvious, we're in lylo. Quickhammering is difficult for scumand probably too risky but still, be careful with your votes.

[2.71828.....]

I was pretty confident about mail-mi, and it feels pretty awful to be wrong like that. 

Also, the Voltaire flip is just additional evidence that Lekkit was telling the truth.

Big question now: Did Lekkit risk hiding again to confirm another town member (doubtful) or play it a little safer. 

[Teproc]

I mean, it would be awesome if he did that, but the risk would have been way too high so it's unlikely.

[Ichimaru Gin]

I mean, it would be awesome if he did that, but the risk would have been way too high so it's unlikely.

I agree. If he had been successful, it would have outed someone else from the pool. But man, if he had hid wrong, it would have cost us the game. Either way, the important thing is that he's alive.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Also.
The new semester starts this tuesday for me. So I will have a lot less time than before.
I've condensed my schedule onto three days + some online courses.

But I won't be able to post much during the middle of the week--tue, wed, thu.

[Lekkit]

I did not gamble the whole outcome of the game. I did not hide.

Also, how is it important that I'm alive?

[Ichimaru Gin]

Well if you were dead--it would most likely mean that we lost the game. That's why.

[Robz888]

A reminder, I'm mostly VLA until Sunday.

I don't see how yuma could possibly not be scum, at this point.

[2.71828.....]

I did not gamble the whole outcome of the game. I did not hide.

Also, how is it important that I'm alive?

I don't think it is too surprising.  Because of the risk of using your ability, you basically play as a VT the rest of game.  So scum have no real reason to NK you over any other VT, and killing you just confirms your play all the more (even though I totally trust you)

[Teproc]

Yeah, it was pretty obvious that scum was going to kill one of Voltaire or e because that gets rid of an IC while still leaving the possibility that Lekkit is fakeclaiming.

Wasn't it yuma that tried to argue that Lekkit might get night killed ? That might have been in the context of a correct lynch day 3 though.

[liopoil]

Guys, robz is super obvscum. we can't not lynch him today. I'm tempted to vote now, but I'll hold off.

[liopoil]

And this is why I didn't want to lynch mail-mi. I thought he was scum, but like I said, you can never be sure with mail-mi. Also, robz is scum.

[Robz888]

And this is why I didn't want to lynch mail-mi. I thought he was scum, but like I said, you can never be sure with mail-mi. Also, robz is scum.

^Scumtell.

[liopoil]

Since I think it more likely that we'll mislynch someone else than it is we'll mislynch me, I'm making it either me or robz888. If I'm wrong, sorry town, but there's no way I was going to be persuaded otherwise.

Vote: Robz888

[Robz888]

Woah woah woah woah. You should really unvote man. Making it you vs. me is exactly what scum yuma wants, and if it's yuma, Ichi, and Teproc you're blowing! Please unvote.

[liopoil]

I realize it means we could lose right away if it's yuma, ichi and Teproc. But, I doubt that this is the case enough that there really is no way I'm ever going to be convinced it's more likely one of them is scum than it is you are scum. I'm going to be making that vote eventually, and I'd rather it be now so that somebody doesn't go and vote for one of those three people.

[Robz888]

No one is going ahead and just voting for someone, except for you. I mean if oyu are really overwhelmingly persuaded that Lekkit and 2.7 are ICs, we should like definitely give them a chance to have a bigger impact on this day.

[2.71828.....]

First of all, I do not like the vote.  It takes 4 to lynch, 3 of them can be scum.  ANY vote on a town member can quickly become a lynch for scum.  I think that voting this early, while possibly not scummy, is not in town's best interest. 

Right now, I would say Lekkit and I are town. 

I think liopoil gets some pretty good town points for bringing up the mod error D3. 

Right now I think that Ichimaru seems like scum. 

Yuma- I can't really think about too much on the top of my head.  need a reread.  I need to be refreshed on why Yuma is scum according to some. 

I am also very wary of Robz.  His reads are really good as town as far as I can tell (especially based on my experience in Chocolate Factory).  I just don't know what to think about Robz right now after his hammer. 

Uh, that was the hammer right ?

And scummy as **** if mail-mi flips town, so hopefully it was Robz hammering his partner in an attempt at cred.

Don't I know it, but I can't really taker the chance that you change your mind and switch everyone to me. You've flip flopped already on that.

If you're town, you did the right thing, yes.

Voltaire says here that town!Robz did the correct thing hammering, and I mean, I convinced myself mail-mi was scum, Voltaire was convinced enough to put him at L-1.  I think Ichi and Yuma are the scummiest in the wagon.  Ichi starting it, Yuma following up on a quasi-IC.  But the Robz hammer is really WIFOM.  I need to do a full reread of Robz.  (if anyone else wants to do it please do, my schedule is much more limited than it has been previously)

Teproc- I need to do a reread here. 

[yuma]

Guys, robz is super obvscum. we can't not lynch him today. I'm tempted to vote now, but I'll hold off.

I agree with this. I won't say he should have been the lynch yesterday, but I will say mail-mi was at the least lynched prematurely. I am partially to blame for this having my vote on mail-mi (which is where I wanted it at the time) but I anticipated no one being lynched until mail-mi and Robz and Lekkit responded in full... so i was surprised to see that voltaire gave robz the opportunity to hammer by putting mail-mi to L-1 when he did...

Basically I am ready at this point to vote for Robz... I don't anticipate voting anywhere else today. But given how yesterday went down I will not be placing a vote of any kind until at the very least Robz gives a defense of points brought up yesterday and any new points brought up today and lekkit has a chance to say more than a few words.... I think liopoil should unvote as well even if he is certain. His vote he says is to:

I'm going to be making that vote eventually, and I'd rather it be now so that somebody doesn't go and vote for one of those three people.

But his vote does nothing to stop a vote for teproc, ichimaru or me except for himself.... so I don't understand his logic here.

[liopoil]

The point is now that a townie voting for someone not robz or I is silly because one of us must be scum. well, I guess it doesn't quite work like that, but it certainly discourages people from voting for someone else a bit at least.

[liopoil]

can we just lynch robz now?

everyone has posted, so I'm assuming no more PR claims today... I see no reason to prolong the day except to get reads from lekkit and e. Maybe other people too, though I doubt anyone besides e or lekkit will be dying tonight.

Here, I'll put my reads out there, in the form of chance of being scum:

Robz: 95%
yuma: 70%
Teproc: 55%
Ichimaru gin: 45%
lekkit: 10%
e: 5%
liopoil: 0%

rounded to the nearest 5%, because yeah I don't know how one could get that exact. lekkit and e are probably even lower. Teproc and Ichimaru gin I need to reread eventually, but not yet I don't! Yuma is scummy because in a vacuum Teproc and ichimaru are slight town, so I doubt both are scum.

Also, once robz flips scum all this could change once we look at interactions with him.

If people are hesitant to lynch robz I can make a case, but really, I think it should be pretty obvious.

[Robz888]

I know I'm scummy just by virtue of still being alive... but why does this not apply to yuma? I honestly don't see the argument for why I am scummier than he is. He's gotten away with being much more muted this game than usual, I mean certainly because of legitimate VLAs, but we didn't see typical townie leader major threat yuma, and he's in the pool where we know tere are scum, and he is still alive.

I am also very wary of Robz.  His reads are really good as town as far as I can tell (especially based on my experience in Chocolate Factory).  I just don't know what to think about Robz right now after his hammer.

My reads aren't especially good, and like all reads, they are garbage early game. But this is the late game, and I am good in the late game, that much I know. I'm good at putting it together when we are down to things. Unfortunately I wasn't listened to last time--EVEN WHEN I WAS COFIRMED TOWN--so I don't see how I'm going to persuade anyone this time. But in any case, yuma HAS to be scum. He's exhibiting all the charatceristics I used to catch Voltaire in Chocolate Factory.

As for the hammer, well yeah, I had to hammer mail-mi, because I was the alternative, and I was definitely town, whereas mail-mi had a high likelihood of being scum. It was a purely mathematical move. I was okay with getting lynched and going down for the town's greater good in Chocolate Factory, and that failed miserably, so I wasn't doing that again.

[Robz888]

I think liopoil must also be scum, but that's not really important, because we lose unless we lynch scum. So we have to lynch the most certain scum, and that scum is yuma.