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[Voltaire]

seems like mod error is most likely now. so maybe ashersky was scum!? yeah, wishful thinking...

if it is indeed mod error, I think this gives me a fairly large townread on e.

Yup.

[Voltaire]

And this strikes me as a townie thing for lio to do, so up goes the town read on him as well.

[Teproc]

Is the reasoning that mcmc is more likely to make that mistake if they're both VTs ? I guess that makes sense, but I don't really like speculating on a mod mistake.

[liopoil]

because he confirmed that he is zhuge liang right away. as scum he might not post until mcmc either confirms or changes the flip, and if it turns out ash was really zhuge liang he might claim to have misread his PM, he was really --insert similarly spelled name here--

hmmm, so maybe not. if he was scum and this was his fakeclaim, I think he'd be more likely to question mcmc about this during the night, 'umm, I thought nobody else would have my fakeclaim'... and also if mcmc made the mistake it pretty much confirms that there is a zhuge liang in the game, and it has to be e otherwise someone would counterclaim.

[Voltaire]

Is the reasoning that mcmc is more likely to make that mistake if they're both VTs ? I guess that makes sense, but I don't really like speculating on a mod mistake.

No, it's not an issue of whether he's more or less likely to make the mistake based on their alignments, it's looking at who claimed what when, what they flipped, and what they've said about it (ie ash never said "Hey, that's my flavor! Obv!scum") and I don't think ash knew the game well enough to invent a flavor.

Also now that ash has flipped town, I find e's early flavor claim to also be more likely to come from town.

[Teproc]

All you're saying is that this means e didn't lie about his flavour which... duh. I was assuming that already.

I agree that his early claim makes him more likely to be town (see my e reread above), but I don't think the mistake mcmc made (presumably) changes anything to how I read e.

Also, I don't think lio picking up on this is particularly townie.

[Voltaire]

Also, I don't think lio picking up on this is particularly townie.

Why?

I'm really warming to a Teproc lynch (still haven't done my re-read though).

[Teproc]

Do you think he wouldn't have done it as scum ? Why ?

[Voltaire]

Do you think he wouldn't have done it as scum ? Why ?

No, but I think he is far more likely to do it as town. Because if lio is scum, he knows e is town. Therefore, if mcmc has indeed made a mistake, he's probably creating an IC (he can try to get town not to think that, but it's what will most likely happen). Why take that risk when you know what the only possible outcome is?

[Voltaire]

Guess I didn't consider a lio/e scumteam...but Occam's Razor here.

[liopoil]

assuming ash is really zhang fei:

let's assume that e is scum for a minute. the name zhuge liang is certainly town, right? he's in one of the two town factions that are fighting the scum together, right robz? zhuge liang is surely his mod-provided fakeclaim then, right? So there is no real zhuge liang in the game. e has his real scum flavor name. if e is scum, then mcmc flipped a flavor name that isn't in the game at all. And, if e is scum, that means he saw ash flip his mod-provided fakeclaim. Surely he would have contacted mcmc regarding this and it would have been fixed during the night, right? as town it's easy to forget your flavorname, I don't know mine off the top of my head right now. Scum who have already used the name to fakeclaim on the other hand... less so I think.

That's why I think that e most likely is really zhuge liang, and so he's likely town.

[Teproc]

@Voltaire : Why would mcmc's mistake make e into an IC ? I don't get this at all.

[Voltaire]

@Voltaire : Why would mcmc's mistake make e into an IC ? I don't get this at all.

Look at what lio just posted. It's all about how everyone else reacted to it.

What is your scenario (possible, likely, whatever you want to call it) where e is scum? Explain that narrative.

[Teproc]

e is scum, his fakeclaim is Zhuge Liang. He saw ash fakeclaim, saw that he was mostly getting town points from it, so he followed suit. He failed to notice mcmc's mistake (like all of us). What more do you need ?

lio's reasoning doesn't make sense to me, because I just think he didn't pay attention to ash's flip, regardless of his alignment.

[Teproc]

By the way I still think e is more likely to be town (see my reread above), I just don't think this whole incident changes anything.

[Robz888]

Well, we need to know whether an error was made before we figure out anything else. Request for moderation.

[liopoil]

e is scum, his fakeclaim is Zhuge Liang. He saw ash fakeclaim, saw that he was mostly getting town points from it, so he followed suit. He failed to notice mcmc's mistake (like all of us). What more do you need ?

still needs mcmc to have flipped a name that isn't in the game at all. He's much more likely to flip a name that another townie has than one that doesn't exist in this game. He could have missed mcmc's mistake, but I think it's more likely for that to happen as town. Also note that all his scumbuddies must have missed it too.

[Teproc]

I guess. Maybe. Ok, points 1 and 3 make sense (that mcmc is unlikely to flip a name that isn't in the game and that his scumbuddies would have pointed it out). Town points to e then.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Wow. This is what I get for sleeping in I guess.

Ok. Before this whole flavor-name duplication incident, I was feeling mildly town on e. Now, I think I'll have to wait for confirmation from mcmc for the flavor stuff.

Still feeling mildly scummy on Voltaire. But I'm gonna have to do a major reread before I feel anything more definite.

My reads are still pretty much the same since my last reads post.

I'd like to know everyone's stance on 2.7 and Voltaire.

Thats nice. 

As long as we are in the business of making requests of people, I'd like everyone to wait to share their opinions until Lekkit puts out his stance first.

I strongly agree with e on this one. I mean, Lekkit has been lurking pretty much the whole game--I don't see why we should follow this until he says what he thinks first. If he's gonna claim PR, I'm leaning scum on him.
Chairs lurked a ton and ended up being a PR, I don't know if Lekkit has the same meta (I don't think so). But if he's gonna claim, I see this as a piggyback on the whole "lurk as a PR thing" where he's hoping to get treated the same as Chairs.

[Teproc]

Lekkit is pretty likely going to claim a PR with some kind of result once everyone has said what they think of e and Voltaire (that's how I read his post anyway). The thing is, there's not a lot of benefit in not cooperating if you're town. You'll have to give your opinion on people at some point anyway. The benefit scum!Lekkit could get here is shaping his results depending on what town wants to believe, but we can figure that out later, can't we ? ON the other hand, if you're town and Lekkit is indeed a PR with some kind of useful result, your refusal to cooperate will only help scum in hiding among town because we don't have full info.

So I think everyone should give their opinion and we'll see why Lekkit is making us do this, and then we'll judge if he had a good reason.

[2.71828.....]

So, Lekkit, you were saying....?

We are at a tricky point in the game right now as far as claiming goes.  As I mentioned earlier, I think that we have either 1 PR or 3 PRs remaining.  I do not think a SK exists, so the most likely situations are as follows (crossed off and made small font the ones I think are unlikely/impossible):

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
I R ? T T T T = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)
TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
I R ? ? ? T T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT
T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

I think scum are in a great position to fakeclaim.  I do not think we (as town) need to base any lynch decisions on evidence given in a supposed claim.  Suppose we rolled 3 PRs.  We have one (unconfirmed) power left.  Scum could easily make us think that we rolled 5 PRs through fakeclaiming stuff.  We just have to be really good at scum hunting and not really too much on PR information.

[Teproc]

So, people who haven't weighed in on Voltaire/2.7 :
- Robz
- Ichimaru

Interesting that 2.7 is trying to discredit Lekkit's claim before it happens. Scum is in great position to fakeclaim ? It depends on what they're fakeclaiming, so I'd wait to see what the claim actually is (assuming that's what's going on) before passing judgement on it.

[Robz888]

So, people who haven't weighed in on Voltaire/2.7 :
- Robz
- Ichimaru

I did. I weighed in on them before I was even asked to do so. Not specifically them, just everyone.

[Ichimaru Gin]

So here are my reads on Voltaire/2.7

Voltaire: I have a mild town-read on him at this point. Near the end (actually even before that), Ash seemed really sure Voltaire was scum. But he felt the same way about Faust, and vice-versa. At least from my experience in this game, I don't put much stock in the reads of dead townies. It seems like Volt's been genuinely scumhunting--which is more than a lot of people have been doing this game. And it seems like he's a lot more focused on reading others then defending himself--which reads pretty townie to me.

2.7: I really don't remember much of the early D1 case against him. Yuma mentioned how he upped his post-count immediately after being called on it. But then he had said he would be busy the first week--so that makes sense. And he's been contributing quite a bit since then. Still, there are a couple of things, "the best mislynch", and others, that give me pause.

How many games has 2.7 played on this forum? If I'm not mistaken, he's relatively new as well.

At any rate, the contradictory flavor-claim and Ash's flip are kind of confusing to me. So my read on 2.7 is still tentative until that is worked out. For now, mildly scummy.

[Teproc]

"the best mislynch" ? Isn't that something that faust said, rather than 2.7 ? And yeah, he's relatively new, this is his third game I believe, the second one still ongoing. Same for me in that regard.