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[Robz888]

Robz, do the flavor names we've gotten from flips so far confirm that flavor isn't indicative of PRness ?

I think, basically yes, flavor doesn't tell us much. I mean these characters are all generals in a war, they can all be vageuly rationalized in one way or another, like, "Oh, he kept his army safe--Doctor! Oh, he led an ambush unit, Hider!" Pang Tong feigned defection to Cao Cao's forces and advised him to chain his ships together, ostensibly to prevent seasickness but actually because this made it easier or the fire attack to destroy Cao Cao's navy. in our game he's the Tracker so... yeah I not much of a connection, it seems to me.

It's also certainly true that important flavor role does not equal PR. Or else Ash/Zhuge Liang would have been one.

[Robz888]

Thoughts at this point...

Post count - old post count for reference:

1. Voltaire - 203
2. Robz888 - 154
3. mail-mi - 67
6. Yuma - 128
7. Ichimaru Gin - 69
8. Lekkit - 46
9. Liopoil - 111
10. Teproc - 128
11. 2.7 - 184

FTFY

Lekkit and yuma are I think the most under-suspected players still alive. I don't feel much suspicion for yuma, but Lekkit probably deserves more of a critical eye than he had received so far.

After light suspicion Day 1, mail-mi all but disappeared on Day 2, did he not?

On Teproc:

Also, chairs voted for me, yes. So ? If you want to go down that road, ash apparently thought I was town !

Here's a hint : being town doesn't make you right. In fact, it's a lot easier for scum to be right. The only people who know my alignment are scum and myself.

But ash's opinion in this game is discredited; chairs isn't. If Voltaire died and flipped town I would give serious weight to his opinion, you know.

On 2.7, I thought he was scummy a long time ago, but cooled to that. Don't know where I stand on him now.

Liopoil seems like town now, just because he's survived the pressure like twice now.  Think nkirbit in Mafia XXIX.

I would rather lose than be conned by Voltaire, but I still lean strong town. He's had all the stances I've had, but in a seemingly authentic way, rather than a mimicking one.

Ichi sill feels like town to me.

So... scummy seeming: Lekkit, mail-mi, Teproc, possibly 2.7
Townie seeming: Yuma, Voltaire, Ichimaru, liopoil

[liopoil]

my reads have become a fair bit weaker now that ash flipped town... feels like I haven't got anything right lately. What I've got is:

lean scum: robz, teproc
null-maybe-scummy?: yuma, 2.7
null-maybe-townie?: lekkit, ichimaru gin, mail-mi
Town: liopoil, voltaire

[Ichimaru Gin]

my reads have become a fair bit weaker now that ash flipped town... feels like I haven't got anything right lately. What I've got is:

lean scum: robz, teproc
null-maybe-scummy?: yuma, 2.7
null-maybe-townie?: lekkit, ichimaru gin, mail-mi
Town: liopoil, voltaire

Why do you have a town-read on voltaire?

[Ichimaru Gin]

Players I think are scum, or leaning scum: Teproc, Lekkit, Voltaire,
Player's I'm unsure about/mild town-read: Robz, Mail-Mi, Yuma, Liopoil, 2.7

 

so frustrating. D1 mislynch because of town fakeclaim, D2 mislynch because ridiculous town play + self-hammer.

oh, and two town PRs dead in two nights.

what we know about the setup: I-R-?-?-?-?-?. so nothing useful.

I agree with this. It's unfortunate that the lynch-pool hasn't been narrowed down more.

[Lekkit]

I'd like to know everyone's stance on 2.7 and Voltaire.

[2.71828.....]

I'd like to know everyone's stance on 2.7 and Voltaire.

Thats nice. 

As long as we are in the business of making requests of people, I'd like everyone to wait to share their opinions until Lekkit puts out his stance first. 

[Lekkit]

I most likely won't. I have stuff to claim. But I want to know other peoples' stance on you before I do.

[Teproc]

Interesting. I have very conflicting opinions about both those players so I'll do a quick reread of each of them right now.

I think it's fine to ask questions for everyone to answer. It could be mafia trying to get a feel for possible mislynches of course, but it's generally good for town to force everyone to speak about something. Plus the obvious implication here is that Lekkit is a PR with some kind of info on 2.7 / Voltaire, in which case having everyone speak before we know what it is seems obviously useful.

[mail-mi]

I'd like to know everyone's stance on 2.7 and Voltaire.

2.7 got surpassed by teproc in scuminess but is still number 2.

Voltaire null-to-slightly-scummy.

[Voltaire]

e is vaguely scummy but I do not want to lynch him based on what I know right now. I think there are better options available.

Of course I trust myself to have read my PM correctly.

[yuma]

I'd like to know everyone's stance on 2.7 and Voltaire.

I started out with a scum read on 2.7 day1 and was really surprised by your extremely strong town read on him... you said something like 10% and never did quite figure out how you could have such a read. Now... I don't know. My initial suspicion of him was based off him lurking and then posting more when called out on it, but this is certainly mitigated as he has been constantly posting since that point, something that I guess scum could do, but is more of a tell that his low posting earlier was kinda a fluke? I think that his creation (more or less) of the faust wagon and then not being on it is mildly scummy... kinda a build the heat, but stay out of the fire sort of thing--but that is also mitigated by him stating that he was willing to hammer and by just the complete weirdness of day1. Day2 in rereading I noticed an odd flip-flop on teproc that I would like 2.7 to address at some point specifically posts: 1304 and 1339. He also started out the day as town on ashersky, but slowly moved toward him being scum... he had one big post 1255 that doesn't give an opinion, but just a little bit later he is willing to vote for ashersky. his reasoning is thus: "Ashersky- His play has been, uh, interesting.  I really don't know what to make of it.  I could see it coming from scum!ash or town!ash.  willing to vote" So I could see a narrative of 2.7 seeing the ash wagon growing and thinking "i could vote for this wagon to move it along and get a mislynch." But later says that ash is an easy lynch and isn't a fan of it, but will (and does) vote for it.

So yeah... There is some stuff in looking at 2.7 that makes me raise my eyebrows. I think he would be in my would lynch category at this point, but I don't know where in comparison to others...


Voltaire: he came out on fire and ended up being correct about chairs being town and a PR. I think the big takeway from day1 is that I feel like voltaire stayed away from the large wagons (not sure if it was intentional or unintentional... the first being scummy, the latter being less scummy) as he was voting for mail-mi and ash who never really got much heat on them day1. He was an ardent supporter of faust being town, and ended up on the counter wagon on eevee. The scum narrative for this is one I have used before in trying to be the counter argument to town. It is a easy narrative for scum to slip into, but I don't know if I see voltaire being on that side just because he doens't do some of the things that I think that narrative often portrays. Whereas I think the better narrative for him is town trying to use a different approach to finding scum (didn't necessarily work on eevee and ash) but I see him being more like the modern community voltaire here, working a different angle than everyone else to hopefully come up wtih good results. Day2 I kinda feel like he got stuck in an argument with ashersky and couldn't get himself out of it. I have been there as both town (like ever game from MXIX to MXXX and scum (Wibbley Wobbley).

So I think I lean a little more on the town side, certainly more so than 2.7.

[Teproc]

Let's do 2.7 first. He was my biggest scum read with the way he inflated his faust case and tried to diminish every other case going on at the time, but I then got town vibes from his attitude at the end of day 1. Since then I've been leaning town on him, but haven't really gone back to him all that much.

First there's his flavour claiming. ash had already done it at this point, and he turned out to be completely right about the relation between flavour and PRness, so I'll count that as townie. I still don't like that he claimed that early but oh well, ash did the same and he was town. Although I guess scum could have seen ash getting credit for his early flavour claim and figured they needed to do the same. Still, I'm mostly getting a town vibe from his participation in the claiming discussion.

Then there's the whole yuma thing (yuma calls him out, among others, for low post count and he starts posting like crazy). I don't get much from that, I was feeling the same way at that time (a lot had happened but I had nothing to say) and I think town will also try to be more active if called out on it.

Then we get to the case on faust. It's weak, and I find it weird that 2.7 (like ash and others) insisted so much on the "he's a good mislynch" thing. That's the kind of nonsensical reasoning town uses all the time (unfortunately), and it's pretty easy for scum to try and get town credit by grandstanding about it. The fact that he then dismisses every single case in existence as being weak, as opposed to his case on faust is what made me vote for him at the time. Still scummy on the reread. It's also interesting that he seems to be against Lekkit asking for everyone's opinion now when that's exactly what he was doing at the time, constantly asking what people thought of faust.

He's been defending Voltaire, a lot. Doesn't say much right now, but worth noting.

Talks about himself in his POE late day 1, providing a scum narrative for his attitude. I really, really don't like that. I allows scum to discredit arguments against them by responding to them before they're even made.

Tries to get a chairs wagon going late day 1, because lynching a PR gives us info ? Or something ? That was really weird and I completely forgot about it (here for reference)

He then does what earned him an unvote from me, which is trying to launch an Eevee wagon when the lynch looked like it was going to be him or faust. I still think this is worth a good amount of town points.

After that, I don't have much to say. He was one of the players keeing the game active in the holiday weeks, and his attitude day 2 was townie for the most part.

In the end, I think I land on slight town for e.

Going to do Voltaire now, although I resent the fact that you chose the two top-posters for this. This took way longer than I expected (although I got interrupted a lot).

[Teproc]

Actually I just realized I already reread Voltaire late day 2 when I was looking for someone that wasn't ash to vote for. His day 1 play doesn't make much sense, and town!Voltaire usually makes sense (except when he tries to POE 2 days in). I thought he was being too conspicuous for it to be scum!Voltaire, but in the last two games he's been in, he's been accused of not being "awesome" enough to be town!Voltaire, so it's possible that he would just try to be hyperactive to kill that kind of case. His hardcore tunneling on ash on day 2 is also a pretty comfortable place to be in : he didn't actually post that much content in day 2 thanks to that.

So slight scum on Voltaire.

And sorry for the crazy link above, forgot the [/url] apparently :/

[2.71828.....]

Day2 in rereading I noticed an odd flip-flop on teproc that I would like 2.7 to address at some point specifically posts: 1304 and 1339.

I don't really see a flip-flop in those two posts.
1304 I agree with Robz assessment concerning a post Teproc made about Ichimaru.  Then in 1339 I have a post where I discuss all the people currently on my lynch list.  At the start of the post that was Ashersky, Chairs, Ichimaru, mail-mi, and liopoil.  By the end of the post that was Robz, Ichimaru, Ashersky, Chairs, and liopoil.  I do not discuss Teproc at all in 1339.  So is the flip-flop because I stated that I thought Teproc posted something that seemed a little scummy but I did not have him on my lynch list?  1304 was one post.  I was looking back over the whole thread and so no, at the time I did not find Teproc scummy enough to have him on my lynch list despite one scummy sounding post.

He also started out the day as town on ashersky, but slowly moved toward him being scum... he had one big post 1255 that doesn't give an opinion, but just a little bit later he is willing to vote for ashersky. his reasoning is thus: "Ashersky- His play has been, uh, interesting.  I really don't know what to make of it.  I could see it coming from scum!ash or town!ash.  willing to vote" So I could see a narrative of 2.7 seeing the ash wagon growing and thinking "i could vote for this wagon to move it along and get a mislynch." But later says that ash is an easy lynch and isn't a fan of it, but will (and does) vote for it.

As far as my stance on Ash, I did start out thinking he was town.  I don't think you will find anywhere D1 where I said Ash is scum (I didn't go back and check though so I could be wrong here).  1255 is not a post about Ash, but rather a post giving an overview of all of the Faust votes, so I am not sure how that fits here.  When I voted Ash it was 2 hours before the deadline.  Both Ash and Teproc had 4 votes and needed two more.  We needed a lynch.  Choosing between those two I decided that Ash was the better lynch.  The scum narrative of "i could vote for this wagon to move it along and get a mislynch" is not true.  If I were trying to do that I would have voted Ash much sooner.

PPE: Teproc's 2 posts

[Voltaire]

vote: Robz and vote: Teproc are the current things rattling around in my brain. I'm going to need to re-read the thread to really figure this one out.

[liopoil]

Voltaire: my biggest townread.  Like robz said, he's been exactly like normal town voltaire, and it doesn't seem fake. I first got the townread from his reactions at the very start of the game regarding the flavor thing. He was pretty bold in what he was saying, and as scum I think it put him at risk of being caught should the setup been different from what it is. Lastly, I agreed with him in regard to ashersky and the fact that ashersky, who tried super hard to get voltaire lynched, couldn't find any good reasons (I thought) to lynch him makes me not really worried that he's scum.

2.7: I'm gonna actually reread for this one, because despite him having nearly 200 posts I remember very little about him:

first, off-topic a bit, here's something I just stumbled upon - pregame he says this:

I am good with starting whenever, I just may not be able to be as active right out of the gate.  Next week is a relatively busy work week for me.

and then....

FIRST

clearly he must be scum, town wouldn't be this excited to get into the game. 

back to something game related.... WOAH:

I don't know Dynasty Warriors, so mass-claiming flavor names will not really help me.  However, it could be really useful to certain PR town members (Robz?) as they make decisions for night actions.  I like flavor name claiming. 

I am Zhuge Liang

Ashersky was Zhuge Liang, a Vanilla Townie

...what does this mean? is he obvscum? could two people have the same name? did I just out him as VT? is he IC?

I think I'll stop my reread there for now...

[liopoil]

and before people get mad at me for potentially telling scum e isn't a PR, I think they would have found that on their own, and I think there is a good enough chance that it means something else that it's worth it to bring to everyone's attention.

Actually, let's have e explain himself first, before other people react

[Teproc]

What ? How did we miss this ?

So either :
1) BOTH ash and 2.7 lied about their flavor
2) mcmc messed up

mcmc, can you confirm ash's flip ? Because I really don't get why he would lie about his flavour as town (especially since it sounded so PRy, and VTs want to be mistaken for PRs by scum).

[liopoil]

Let's try this.

I'm Zhang Fei.  Does that help anyone figure anything out about how flavor claiming will help us catch scum?

oh, I forgot about this. yeah, that's weirder that I even thought.

[2.71828.....]

I don't know Dynasty Warriors, so mass-claiming flavor names will not really help me.  However, it could be really useful to certain PR town members (Robz?) as they make decisions for night actions.  I like flavor name claiming. 

I am Zhuge Liang

Ashersky was Zhuge Liang, a Vanilla Townie

Oh my.  Thanks for pointing that out.  I didn't even notice that for some reason.

either we were given the same flavor, or mcmc messed up.  He can mod-confirm that, but I am definitely Zhuge Liang

[Voltaire]

Let's try this.

I'm Zhang Fei.  Does that help anyone figure anything out about how flavor claiming will help us catch scum?

Here's ash claiming. So this is either a mod mistake, or ash lied about his flavor.

[liopoil]

seems like mod error is most likely now. so maybe ashersky was scum!? yeah, wishful thinking...

if it is indeed mod error, I think this gives me a fairly large townread on e.

[Teproc]

Why ?

[2.71828.....]

It makes no sense that it is anything but a simple mistake.  I mean, Ash would have brought up my fake flavor (if it was fake) and Ash would not fake flavor claim as town.