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[2.71828.....]

This is either disgusted town or caught scum behavior from Faust. I lean caught scum and am ready to vote: Faust

His flavor is all bad to. Town!e is shu. Town!ash is shu. Scum!Faust is wu.

or, he is at least different than us. So we will likely get at least 1 scum for 1 town

Pm's are going out, and hopefully you learned from last time don't freak out when you get a colored Pm, The Battle of the Red Cliffs is the showdown between the massive Wei army(Bad Guys!), against the combined forces of the Wu naval fleet(Good Guys!) and some Shu officers(also good guys!)

oh. Well then. I forgot to go back and look at that. All three of us might be town

[liopoil]

This is either disgusted town or caught scum behavior from Faust. I lean caught scum and am ready to vote: Faust

I've been ready to vote for faust ever since he claimed, but I'm still waiting for a full explanation.

[Voltaire]

I'm also willing to vote for faust because if I'm wrong and he flips town, I'm a-ok with him shooting ash.

[liopoil]

faust is offline (though I think this is just because of 15 minutes of inativity). let's hope the wiki stays offline for a bit longer...

[2.71828.....]

I'm also willing to vote for faust because if I'm wrong and he flips town, I'm a-ok with him shooting ash.

see I think that will be the death of two town members.

[Robz888]

I will be voting for faust unless we get a great explanation from him. I'm now thinking the most plausible explanation for what just happened is that it was a fake claim gone wrong when he realized mafiascum wiki was down.

[2.71828.....]

I will be voting for faust unless we get a great explanation from him. I'm now thinking the most plausible explanation for what just happened is that it was a fake claim gone wrong when he realized mafiascum wiki was down.

see, he was in no rush to claim though. Our fake claim. Whichever. I think mafiascum being down actually helps his claim. Because if I were to fake claim I would get the info and all my ducks in a row before the claim

[Voltaire]

I will be voting for faust unless we get a great explanation from him. I'm now thinking the most plausible explanation for what just happened is that it was a fake claim gone wrong when he realized mafiascum wiki was down.

see, he was in no rush to claim though. Our fake claim. Whichever. I think mafiascum being down actually helps his claim. Because if I were to fake claim I would get the info and all my ducks in a row before the claim

Hmm hmm hmm. Point. Generically, why claim as scum with only 2 votes D1?

Help me out. Did faust end up being scum in M31? I think so, right? I forget the flips from the end of that game.

[2.71828.....]

I will be voting for faust unless we get a great explanation from him. I'm now thinking the most plausible explanation for what just happened is that it was a fake claim gone wrong when he realized mafiascum wiki was down.

see, he was in no rush to claim though. Our fake claim. Whichever. I think mafiascum being down actually helps his claim. Because if I were to fake claim I would get the info and all my ducks in a row before the claim

ugh I am talking myself into thinking he really is town. anti-town behavior, but still to town.

My question: do we lynch anti-town behavior? Or do we lynch scum? They are not always the same thing. He is not SK. No way.

[Teproc]

Hmmm. This is not great for me, because I don't think faust is scum and I really don't think ash is scum.

I looked at the setup recently, and if I remember correctly, Vengeful has  50% chance to happen if one K is rolled, and there will always be at least one Vengeful if more than one K is rolled.

Vengeful is probably the go to scum fakeclaim but... I mean, it's a pretty likely role to exist, and I do think his timing makes sense here. I wouldn't have claimed at that point myself, but it makes sense to help narrow the lynch down.

Basically, I think his claim doesn't change anything to his likelihood of being town/scum. But I don't want to lynch him because I believe ash to be town, and I'm not confident either way as to faust's alignment.

[Robz888]

@Voltaire: Yes, faust was scum in M31. I can't easily understand why he claimed now, regardless of whether he is scum or town, and I'd rather hear it from him first before I analyze it.

@2.1: We lynch scum, not anti-town behavior, but I'm not sure which this is. I see zero reason to rule him out as SK, but even bringing that up is premature here.

[Robz888]

Hmmm. This is not great for me, because I don't think faust is scum and I really don't think ash is scum.

I looked at the setup recently, and if I remember correctly, Vengeful has  50% chance to happen if one K is rolled, and there will always be at least one Vengeful if more than one K is rolled.

Vengeful is probably the go to scum fakeclaim but... I mean, it's a pretty likely role to exist, and I do think his timing makes sense here. I wouldn't have claimed at that point myself, but it makes sense to help narrow the lynch down.

Basically, I think his claim doesn't change anything to his likelihood of being town/scum. But I don't want to lynch him because I believe ash to be town, and I'm not confident either way as to faust's alignment.

STOP

[Robz888]

UGH

[Voltaire]

?

[Teproc]

What ? That's pretty much what e had said anyway I think ? What did you want to catch faust on ?

[2.71828.....]

UGH

no one ever listens to robz. Except for that whole liopoil wagon

[Robz888]

If, before the wiki comes back, faust can't identify certain facts about the Vengeful role, for instance how many V's produce it, I will assume he is scum. Let's not give him the answers to the quiz.

[Teproc]

You realize that this would in no way be indicative of his alignment right ? If he is Vengeful, how does he have more info about the setup than if he isn't ?

[Robz888]

You realize that this would in no way be indicative of his alignment right ? If he is Vengeful, how does he have more info about the setup than if he isn't ?

He doesn't, but if he is Vengeful, he probably took a closer look at the V section of the setup than someone who isn't Vengeful. Wouldn't you go check like, "Oh, does this mean there's also a Vigilante? Can there be two Vengefuls?" That sort of thing you probably only check if you are Vengeful.

[Teproc]

I see. But hey, I don't have the setup in front of me, so I could very well be wrong anyway.

[2.71828.....]

I just remembered this post, and since it is from Faust I hope it is ok. I didn't double check his numbers, but I am pretty sure he looked carefully at the setup

By the way, I had too much spare time, so I did some math. Maybe this can be of use.

Probabilities for PRs:

P(there is a Tracker)=63,6%

P(there is a 1-shot Tracker)=22,2%

P(there is a Doctor)=P(there is a Jailkeeper)=31,5%

P(there is a Hider)=49,1%

P(there is a 1-shot Commuter)=13,9%

P(there is a Vengeful)=P(there is a Vigilante)=31,5%

P(there is a Role Cop)=24,6%

P(there is a Gunsmith)=4,1%

P(there is a Mafia Bus Driver)=40,9%

P(there is a Mafia JOAT)=73,0%

P(there is a SK)=50,0%

[Teproc]

Interesting. Pretty sure something is wrong in these numbers.

[liopoil]

I don't know what either one of e and teproc are talking about, I'm looking at the setup right in front of me and I'm it does not say what they think it says.

[Teproc]

faust is offline and won't be online for at least 8 hours (given that it's midnight here). So.... we just wait ? mafiascum is pretty unlikely to be back up anyway by that point.

Note : still unwilling to lynch him.

[EFHW]

Do guys still need mod intervention?  I just signed on, had a message from Robz.