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[faust]

The above percentages are the chances that each player is scum, in case that wasn't clear.

[faust]

Lekkit: 15%
2.7: 21%
yuma: 22%
Robz: 28%
faust: 100%

The fact that you're still clinging onto the "faust is 100% scum" thing seems scummy to me. Town I think, even town!ashersky, would have had some kind of doubts (even if it only drop to, I don't know, 91%). But scum might think "I put the 100% out there, I need to stick to it".

[Lekkit]

ashersky, why are you so convinced that faust is 100% scum? And if you're so sure, why haven't you tried to get other people voting for him? ("Vote faust, gys! He's scum!" Isn't really trying) Why haven't you pressured him to prove his scummyness?

1. Voltaire - 40
2. Robz888 - 30
3. mail-mi - 25
4. Chairs - 32,5 (But don't want to lynch him)
5. Ashersky - 30
6. Yuma - 15
7. Ichimaru Gin - 30
8. Lekkit - 0
9. Liopoil - 25
10. Teproc - 25
11. 2.7 - 10
12. Eevee - 30
13. Faust - 30

I tend to read everyone as scummy. At this point I think a wagon is more important than lynching my top scum read. We don't have very much to go on, and we won't have much more tomorrow if we nolynch today. So to summarize, I prefer to lynch: Voltaire, Robz, ashersky, Ichimaru Gin, Eeevee or faust. Tomorrow IRL I'd probably be down with voting those that I don't really have an opinion on, but I wouldn't vote for anyone that's below 25, which is yuma, me and 2.7.

Also, I'm a guy and prefer to be called he but won't be offended by she (but probably confused).

[ashersky]

I'll give you some percentages if you want:

Voltaire - 37%
Robz888 - 17%
mail-mi - 40%
Chairs - 36%
Ashersky - 42%
Yuma - 24%
Ichimaru Gin - 27%
Lekkit - 20%
Liopoil - 32%
Teproc - 22%
2.7 - 29%
Eevee - 31%
Faust - 0%

8 scum reads.  Nice.  Really narrowed it down there.

Back to vote: faust if I wasn't already.

[Teproc]

Let's do a popsquiz then. I'll point out, ash, that while I didn't do a reads or whatever after you asked, I had done one just before (the one where I end up voting 2.7), so I didn't exactly feel the need to. The percentages thing doesn't speak to me at all because I hate math, so I'll just do it the traditional way :

Won't lynch : chairs, ash, Ichimaru, Lekkit, Voltaire
Prefer not to lynch : yuma, Robz, faust
Might lynch : liopoil, Eevee
Lynch ! 2.7, mail-mi

mail-mi's latest posts are really scummy to me, especially calling out (twice) the "biais" Voltaire has against him. I'm sure it used to be true but dude, Voltaire was the guy who kept defending you in GoT and almost got lynched for it (among other things). When your own partner decided to have a scum read on you for distancing purposes (which worked marvelously I should add), Voltaire was among the guys who tried to make him see you weren't scum !

And 2.7's posts kept getting scummier and scummier to me until recently. I'll elaborate when I have more time, but I'm very comfortable with my vote on him.

PPE : Lekkit, ash has been pressuring faust. Saying you're 100% sure and calling out everybody not voting for faust counts as pressuring in my book.

[Eevee]

I really don't see a better lynch than liopoil.

Robz, chairs and ichimaru are as likely to flip scum, but robz is nightkilled a lot, most of you think chars is either pr or mafia (I disagree, but I guess that's more likely) and ichimaru is new.
null on teproc, don't really see any reason to advocate his lynch over lio, same for lekkit whose case on Voltaire I agree makes him more towny. e has been posting more and is putting himself out there in a way I think is towny. faust-ash situation I think might very well resolve on it's
own, and I'm town so that's not really good. Reads are muddy still, but they'll get better fast if we keep the game moving.

I try to have my voting history / my reads speak for my towniness - I think that's the hardest thing for scum to manipulate. Obviously that's not very helpul day 1 before the first flip,
so just trying to survive that.

[faust]

8 scum reads.  Nice.  Really narrowed it down there.

Back to vote: faust if I wasn't already.

*sigh*

Now without percentages because percentages don't really tell anything:

Won't lynch: Voltaire, Robz, chairs, Lekkit
Prefer not to lynch: yuma, Teproc, Ichimaru
Would lynch: e, Eevee, liopoil
Lynch!: mail-mi, ashersky

Narrowed down enough for you?

[faust]

I really don't see a better lynch than liopoil.

Robz, chairs and ichimaru are as likely to flip scum, but robz is nightkilled a lot, most of you think chars is either pr or mafia (I disagree, but I guess that's more likely) and ichimaru is new.
null on teproc, don't really see any reason to advocate his lynch over lio, same for lekkit whose case on Voltaire I agree makes him more towny. e has been posting more and is putting himself out there in a way I think is towny. faust-ash situation I think might very well resolve on it's
own, and I'm town so that's not really good. Reads are muddy still, but they'll get better fast if we keep the game moving.

I try to have my voting history / my reads speak for my towniness - I think that's the hardest thing for scum to manipulate. Obviously that's not very helpul day 1 before the first flip,
so just trying to survive that.

What about mail-mi and yuma?

[Eevee]

Well, when I reread mailmi, he seemed scummier at first, but more recently he has made some posts with lighhearted jokes that read to me as someone who isn't nervous or forcing their contributions. yuma had the longer vla, hasn't maybe quite been the leader I'd expect him to, but then again it's kind of hard when you miss a good chunk of the day. yuma too is often nightkilled, he isn't a very good day 1 lynch regardless.

[2.71828.....]

From the reads that I have seen recently (specific post I used hyperlinked):

Faust mail-mi ashersky

Teproc 2.7 mail-mi

Lekkit Voltaire Chairs

Ashersky Faust Robz Yuma

2.7 liopoil eevee mail-mi faust*

yuma liopoil eevee 2.7 mail-mi

mail-mi Voltaire liopoil

mail-mi - 4
liopoil - 3
2.7, Voltaire, Faust, and Eevee - 2

not "voting"- liopoil, eevee, Ichimaru, Robz, Chairs, Voltaire

*does not appear as a candidate in the post I linked, but I still want him on this list as a viable candidate for my vote D1 because I am willing to go back to my Faust vote, though I prefer not to at this point.  LALL

[2.71828.....]

From the reads that I have seen recently (specific post I used hyperlinked):

Faust mail-mi ashersky

Teproc 2.7 mail-mi

Lekkit Voltaire Chairs

Ashersky Faust Robz Yuma

2.7 liopoil eevee mail-mi faust*

yuma liopoil eevee 2.7 mail-mi

mail-mi Voltaire liopoil

mail-mi - 4
liopoil - 3
2.7, Voltaire, Faust, and Eevee - 2

not "voting"- liopoil, eevee, Ichimaru, Robz, Chairs, Voltaire

*does not appear as a candidate in the post I linked, but I still want him on this list as a viable candidate for my vote D1 because I am willing to go back to my Faust vote, though I prefer not to at this point.  LALL

Looking back Eevee didn't necessarily give a formatted reads post that was easy to spot (I was just skimming) but basically said liopoil, Robz, Chairs, Ichimaru.  I will give him credit for that. 

so

mail-mi, liopoil - 4
Robz, Chairs, 2.7, Voltaire, Faust, and Eevee - 2


not "voting"- liopoil, Ichimaru, Robz, Chairs, Voltaire

[chairs]

Sorry, yuma.  I got in trouble at work so I can't work-post as much anymore, and my live-in ladyfriend is still... awkward, when it comes to having me-doing-my-stuff time.  I'm used to a schedule that I haven't been able to really find again because she wants to, you know, actually have me pay attention to her.  Silly, I know!

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, yuma.  I got in trouble at work so I can't work-post as much anymore, and my live-in ladyfriend is still... awkward, when it comes to having me-doing-my-stuff time.  I'm used to a schedule that I haven't been able to really find again because she wants to, you know, actually have me pay attention to her.  Silly, I know!

What! not being able to post at work!  Terrible.  (my post count will probably go down over the holidays because I am leaving work, and cant sit here at my computer all day)

[liopoil]

the main point of the percentages is to quantify it, to precisely express how confident you feel about your reads. "I really think player x is scum" means different things from different people. "player x I think has a 45% chance of flipping scum" means the same thing from everyone.

ash, are you completely serious about being 100% on faust? Is it not an exaggeration at all?

because if he is serious, that means that if ashersky is town, faust is scum. And if faust is town, it means ashersky is scum. If someone is actually 100% sure somebody else is scum, that means we should lynch one of those two players. It's like a cop claim w/guilty result or some equivalent.

So I am assuming that ashersky is not serious.

For me (note: 27% is null):

liopoil: 0%
voltaire: 16%
ashersky: 18.5%
chairs: 21%
faust: 24%
yuma: 25.5%
robz888: 26%
lekkit, ichimaru, mail-mi: 28%
Teproc: 30%
e: 31%
eevee: 34%

[EFHW]

Vote Count 1.11

怒而挠之

2.7... (2): Teproc, yuma
mail-mi (2): Voltaire, faust
Voltaire (1):Lekkit
Eevee (3): Robz888, liopoil, 2.7....
liopoil (3): Eevee，chairs, Ichimaru Gin
chairs (1): mail-mi
faust (1): ashersky

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December, 19 at 2:00 p.m. Forum time.

[2.71828.....]

updated

Faust mail-mi ashersky

Teproc 2.7 mail-mi

Lekkit Voltaire Chairs

Ashersky Faust Robz Yuma

2.7 liopoil eevee mail-mi faust

yuma liopoil eevee 2.7 mail-mi

mail-mi Voltaire liopoil

Eevee liopoil robz chairs Ichimaru

liopoil eevee 2.7 teproc

mail-mi, liopoil - 4
2.7, eevee - 3
Voltaire, Faust, chairs - 2

not "voting"- Ichimaru, Robz, Chairs, Voltaire

I will work on a percentage chart for myself shortly.

[Teproc]

the main point of the percentages is to quantify it, to precisely express how confident you feel about your reads. "I really think player x is scum" means different things from different people. "player x I think has a 45% chance of flipping scum" means the same thing from everyone.

Quantifying it only has value in so far as it translates into actual game actions, ie willingness to lynch.

Also I'm dumb and confused and I was about to ask why you had a town read on Eevee 

Is what 2.7 is doing pro-town ? Figuring out who is lynchable is very valuable to scum. I guess it can be pro-town when we're close to deadline but confirmation bias makes me find it scummy, so I'd like to know what others think.

[Voltaire]

Is what 2.7 is doing pro-town ? Figuring out who is lynchable is very valuable to scum. I guess it can be pro-town when we're close to deadline but confirmation bias makes me find it scummy, so I'd like to know what others think.

It cuts both ways.

I'm willing to lynch: mail-mi, Eevee, lio, ashersky, 2.7, in that order I think.

[2.71828.....]

I am using 27% as null because I guess that is more precise.

liopoil: 30% - His reaction to the wagon that developed on him has been to contribute more.  which is good. Still slightly scummy in my book.
voltaire: 22% - Active, useful.  Lean town
ashersky: 27% - Absolutely crazy D1.  Did some stuff pushing the Faust lynch that I am uncomfortable with and I was on that "wagon."  I think someone said somewhere that Ash will do just about anything, so "strange" behavior is a null tell.
chairs: 29% - His absence was worrying, but getting into additional trouble at work is not worth posting in the game. 
faust: 40% - His response to the case against him has been decent, but not great in my opinion.  It is really unfortunate that no one joined to at least make a wagon of it.  Initial wagons rarely work people, and he probably would not have gotten lynched right away.  But we would at least have a wagon to analyze. And he would have had more pressure on him which might have elicited a different/better response from him and others.  I mean, a larger wagon got going on liopoil because Robz was like, "meh, liopoil is behaving like Toy Story so I will vote him."  And then everyone sheeped and sheeped and sheeped.
yuma: 22% - Active, helpful.  Lean town
robz888: 27% - Not Active.  Started the thing on liopoil.  Again.  Not active.  I don't think scum!robz would be as quiet as he is here.  But still not enough to really make me think he is town.  null
lekkit: 24% - His response to my vote was good.  He has been contributing.  Slight town
ichimaru: 27% - null.  He has done some things that I find a little disconcerting, but he is new and I do not know if that is disconcerting!town or disconcerting!scum. 
mail-mi: 33% - He has not been very active, but that is a lot of people.  His "If mail-mi isn't alive at the end of the game" post makes me lean a little scum.  But would scum really post that?  WIFOM
Teproc: 22% - Useful, active.  towny for now
e: 0% - town.  of course
eevee: 35% - His laissez faire approach to D1 and then him posting to say that "if you keep me around I will be more useful I promise" rubs me the wrong way a bit

Take aways:  It has been tough to get really strong reads today.  All my scum reads are based on the slightest of things. 

Would lynch (first choice to last choice): Faust, Eevee, mail-mi, liopoil.

I am currently voting Eevee because I think that is a more productive vote at the moment.

[Teproc]

Is what 2.7 is doing pro-town ? Figuring out who is lynchable is very valuable to scum. I guess it can be pro-town when we're close to deadline but confirmation bias makes me find it scummy, so I'd like to know what others think.

It cuts both ways.

What do you mean ?

[Voltaire]

Is what 2.7 is doing pro-town ? Figuring out who is lynchable is very valuable to scum. I guess it can be pro-town when we're close to deadline but confirmation bias makes me find it scummy, so I'd like to know what others think.

It cuts both ways.

What do you mean ?

It can be pro- or anti- town, and I'm pretty sure I have seen both town and scum do it.

[Lekkit]

It's better to lynch than not to lynch. And we can't seem to agree on a lynch.

[Voltaire]

It's better to lynch than not to lynch. And we can't seem to agree on a lynch.

OK. Let's look a this.

2.7... (2): Teproc, yuma
mail-mi (2): Voltaire, faust
Voltaire (1):Lekkit
Eevee (3): Robz888, liopoil, 2.7....
liopoil (3): Eevee，chairs, Ichimaru Gin
chairs (1): mail-mi
faust (1): ashersky

Everyone except for chairs seems to get a decent amount of support. I think mail-mi needs to move his vote and everyone else is being reasonable with where they stand.

[Voltaire]

Everyone except for chairs seems to get a decent amount of support. I think mail-mi needs to move his vote and everyone else is being reasonable with where they stand.

I mean, ash should move his too, but I don't expect that to happen.

[Voltaire]

Everyone except for chairs seems to get a decent amount of support. I think mail-mi needs to move his vote and everyone else is being reasonable with where they stand.

I mean, ash should move his too, but I don't expect that to happen.

Actually, I'd think Lekkit's vote on me should probably move too. I know I'm your preferred lynch, Lekkit, but in order to lynch not everyone can have their preferred lynch.

So mail-mi, ash, Lekkit to move votes and let's take a look at where we are, I think.