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[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.10

2.7... (2): Teproc, yuma
mail-mi (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (2): mail-mi, Lekkit
Ichimaru Gin (1): ashersky
Eevee (2): Robz888, liopoil
liopoil (4): Eevee，chairs, faust, Ichimaru Gin

Not Voting (1):2.7....

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December, 19 at 2:00 p.m. Forum time.

That liopoil wagon is terrible.  Eevee and chairs are hardcore lurking.  Chairs and faust are hardcore scum reads.  Ichimaru Gin is new and wouldn't know the meta-argument using to lynch lio in the first place.

And 2.7 isn't even voting, and we're less than 2 days to deadline.  Terrible D1, as Robz said.

[yuma]

That liopoil wagon is terrible.  Eevee and chairs are hardcore lurking.  Chairs and faust are hardcore scum reads.  Ichimaru Gin is new and wouldn't know the meta-argument using to lynch lio in the first place.

And 2.7 isn't even voting, and we're less than 2 days to deadline.  Terrible D1, as Robz said.

Well it isn't like you are helping. All you have done is shout "lynch faust" over and over again and then call every wagon and case that has come up "horrible."

Vote for 2.7 now?

[yuma]

and I should clarify that, that I am not trying to be rude and say that you have been worthless ash or that I don't value your contributions... I do. But rather that everyone has been kinda off today. It has been a weird day and I don't know what to make of it. So yeah, bad day1, but part of the blame is yours, part is mine, part is others...

[yuma]

So, if everyone starts out at 25% chance, we can assign a number higher or lower than than for our reads, eHalcyon-style.

How do people feel about doing that?

I like this idea. The actual percentage is about 27%, but that hardly matters. I think we should do this, I think it's a better form of popsquiz.

I like the idea of getting people to put their reads out, but I don't like the idea of forcing them to do it a certain style. I for one won't be putting percentages onto my reads... why? Because they would be completely arbitrary... I don't think like that and wouldn't have meaning but instead would have meaning attached to them by others that wasn't intended....

Let people scum-hunt the way they want to. Call out those who aren't at all, but let others do it how they want to...

[2.71828.....]

[Yuma galz deduction post]

I really like this and agree that this is how we should proceed after a pitiful D1

The first four people he takes off I agree with completely.  Although I would not just blatantly give Yuma the pass he gave himself, his involvement takes him off the table D1.

As far as eliminating people due to post count, I think teproc gets off. Ash gets off.  I don't get off. I assume because I had a clear point where you could say "he wasn't posting then, he is posting now" is the reason I don't get the pass. So you need to make a decision. Town narrative- 2.7 saw the very unproductive day and did not want it to go to waste so totally reengaged with the game in an attempt to get the game rolling. Scum narrative- 2.7 knew he would be judged by his previous game as well as by his current ongoing game where he has established himself as someone not entirely useless. So he fabricates a case against someone in an attempt to appear useful and active.

I agree with taking robz off next.

So now Faust, 2.7, lekkit, eevee, liopoil, mail-mi. Of these people I would go ahead and remove lekkit. I think it is reasonable to remove him 1) while having fewer posts, they have had content and 2) it's his first game back in a while. I also think it is reasonable to remove 2.7 because 1) he has shown that he is willing to put himself out there for reads even if people think he is scummy for it and 2) you know he will keep posting D2 with more reads and if he is scum (which is by no means certain) extra reads from scum on D2 are useful because it gives us more content to reference (not that I am scum, I am just trying to be as impartial as possible). And Faust just probably isn't going to happen after ash/2.7 being on him so hard so long and not a single other person joined.

So liopoil, eevee, and mail-mi are my three remaining people who I do not see a good reason not to pursue a D1 lynch.

Of those three, eevee has provided no reasons at all as to why he should be removed from lynch candidacy. Even after pressed, he was kind of like "eh, didn't have much to say."

So my process of galz D1 deduction leads me to vote: eevee.

[2.71828.....]

I know the basic reason I put out for removing me (after the post count phase) was, "even if he is scum it would be good to have him around D2"

That is not the real reason I should be eliminated though. I should be eliminated because of the town narrative I provided for my post count. I was just keeping myself in a little longer to show that even if you reject my town narrative, there are reasons to keep 2.7 around. Maybe a little presumptuous, but I didn't want to just write myself off immediately because I wanted to be as non biased as possible and because I know people really do suspect me.

[yuma]

I don't get off. I assume because I had a clear point where you could say "he wasn't posting then, he is posting now" is the reason I don't get the pass. So you need to make a decision. Town narrative- 2.7 saw the very unproductive day and did not want it to go to waste so totally reengaged with the game in an attempt to get the game rolling. Scum narrative- 2.7 knew he would be judged by his previous game as well as by his current ongoing game where he has established himself as someone not entirely useless. So he fabricates a case against someone in an attempt to appear useful and active.
...
I also think it is reasonable to remove 2.7 because 1) he has shown that he is willing to put himself out there for reads even if people think he is scummy for it and 2) you know he will keep posting D2 with more reads and if he is scum (which is by no means certain) extra reads from scum on D2 are useful because it gives us more content to reference (not that I am scum, I am just trying to be as impartial as possible).

I am trying to look at both narratives and I do appreciate that you are posting more if you are town. It certainly helps. Like I said above, I haven't really had a chance to start looking at who is the scummiest out of the players left for me to look at. That will have to be a task for tomorrow after work cause bedtime is about here.

I would also add to the potential scum narrative that it isn't just fabricating a case (your words not mine) but also that you sheeped a case that was more or less already around from ash but not fully fleshed out... This is a great place for mafia to jump onto if they are scum and looking for something to talk about... taking someone's opinion and running with it.

[ashersky]

That liopoil wagon is terrible.  Eevee and chairs are hardcore lurking.  Chairs and faust are hardcore scum reads.  Ichimaru Gin is new and wouldn't know the meta-argument using to lynch lio in the first place.

And 2.7 isn't even voting, and we're less than 2 days to deadline.  Terrible D1, as Robz said.

Well it isn't like you are helping. All you have done is shout "lynch faust" over and over again and then call every wagon and case that has come up "horrible."

Vote for 2.7 now?

Well, if you all followed my lead, we wouldn't be in this predicament.

As it is, no one is getting lynched, as there is no agreement.

I could see Eevee happening, I suppose.

[2.71828.....]

I don't get off. I assume because I had a clear point where you could say "he wasn't posting then, he is posting now" is the reason I don't get the pass. So you need to make a decision. Town narrative- 2.7 saw the very unproductive day and did not want it to go to waste so totally reengaged with the game in an attempt to get the game rolling. Scum narrative- 2.7 knew he would be judged by his previous game as well as by his current ongoing game where he has established himself as someone not entirely useless. So he fabricates a case against someone in an attempt to appear useful and active.
...
I also think it is reasonable to remove 2.7 because 1) he has shown that he is willing to put himself out there for reads even if people think he is scummy for it and 2) you know he will keep posting D2 with more reads and if he is scum (which is by no means certain) extra reads from scum on D2 are useful because it gives us more content to reference (not that I am scum, I am just trying to be as impartial as possible).

I am trying to look at both narratives and I do appreciate that you are posting more if you are town. It certainly helps. Like I said above, I haven't really had a chance to start looking at who is the scummiest out of the players left for me to look at. That will have to be a task for tomorrow after work cause bedtime is about here.

I would also add to the potential scum narrative that it isn't just fabricating a case (your words not mine) but also that you sheeped a case that was more or less already around from ash but not fully fleshed out... This is a great place for mafia to jump onto if they are scum and looking for something to talk about... taking someone's opinion and running with it.

good point. In my mind I was not sheeping the case, it just so happened that ash saw the same thing I did. I posted my case 4 1/2 days after ashersky placed his vote. I was doing my reread, and as you yourself had mentioned, things were pretty dead. Faust's post was the scummiest I saw, and I jumped on it.

[ashersky]

So, if everyone starts out at 25% chance, we can assign a number higher or lower than than for our reads, eHalcyon-style.

How do people feel about doing that?

I like this idea. The actual percentage is about 27%, but that hardly matters. I think we should do this, I think it's a better form of popsquiz.

I like the idea of getting people to put their reads out, but I don't like the idea of forcing them to do it a certain style. I for one won't be putting percentages onto my reads... why? Because they would be completely arbitrary... I don't think like that and wouldn't have meaning but instead would have meaning attached to them by others that wasn't intended....

Let people scum-hunt the way they want to. Call out those who aren't at all, but let others do it how they want to...

Hey, it was just an idea to get people talking, putting down reads for the record, etc.  Clearly it didn't work, as the day just stagnated anyway.  At least I tried.

[2.71828.....]

So, if everyone starts out at 25% chance, we can assign a number higher or lower than than for our reads, eHalcyon-style.

How do people feel about doing that?

I like this idea. The actual percentage is about 27%, but that hardly matters. I think we should do this, I think it's a better form of popsquiz.

I like the idea of getting people to put their reads out, but I don't like the idea of forcing them to do it a certain style. I for one won't be putting percentages onto my reads... why? Because they would be completely arbitrary... I don't think like that and wouldn't have meaning but instead would have meaning attached to them by others that wasn't intended....

Let people scum-hunt the way they want to. Call out those who aren't at all, but let others do it how they want to...

Hey, it was just an idea to get people talking, putting down reads for the record, etc.  Clearly it didn't work, as the day just stagnated anyway.  At least I tried.

I didn't quite get it. Is it prevent chance we think they are scum?
Do I say
e-0%
Faust-62.8%
Ashersky-21.7%
Etc....
And continue down the line? (Those numbers were made up)

[mail-mi]

I would like everyone to re-read mail-mi.

I would like everyone (who has played with him before) to ask themselves, "is this how town!mail-mi acts?"

I would like everyone (especially Robz) to consider how we always let mail-mi live, and what that means.

Before I've read anything else

I would like everyone to remember Volt's bias against me. (this is serious)

I would like everyone to read this: YES.

I would like everyone to realize that if mail-mi isn't alive at the end of the game and is town, town loses. (yes this is also semi-serious. Stats say that if you mislynch me, you lose. Look at the games I'm in.)

I think I only bring up biases when I'm scum.

and I think bringing up the metastat of mail-mi not being alive at the end of the game is scummy... I don't think these games offer a large enough sampling size nor a reliable enough set of variables to draw any conclusions from in this area... unless you are trying to manipulate people into thinking a certain set of conclusions...

Bolded that for you.

[ashersky]

So, if everyone starts out at 25% chance, we can assign a number higher or lower than than for our reads, eHalcyon-style.

How do people feel about doing that?

I like this idea. The actual percentage is about 27%, but that hardly matters. I think we should do this, I think it's a better form of popsquiz.

I like the idea of getting people to put their reads out, but I don't like the idea of forcing them to do it a certain style. I for one won't be putting percentages onto my reads... why? Because they would be completely arbitrary... I don't think like that and wouldn't have meaning but instead would have meaning attached to them by others that wasn't intended....

Let people scum-hunt the way they want to. Call out those who aren't at all, but let others do it how they want to...

Hey, it was just an idea to get people talking, putting down reads for the record, etc.  Clearly it didn't work, as the day just stagnated anyway.  At least I tried.

I didn't quite get it. Is it prevent chance we think they are scum?
Do I say
e-0%
Faust-62.8%
Ashersky-21.7%
Etc....
And continue down the line? (Those numbers were made up)

Right.  Everyone had a random 25% (close enough) chance of random.org assigning them a scum role.  So, before you even read a post, your score for everyone (except yourself) would have been 25%.

Now, after the game has been going on for all this time, you adjust that number up or down based.  The actual chances of the rolls stay at 25%, obviously, but for the sake of this exercise, you can show how strong your read is relative to the "null" word we use all the time.  Null = 25%.

eHal (or eHunt?) used to do this all the time, and he'd be quite precise about it.  32.17% and stuff like that.

Depending on how your full gamut turns out, 20% could be a very strong town read.  I mean, it's only 5% off null, but it's 20% of the possible reduction.

It isn't worth doing yourself, but for me, a few (not made up):

Lekkit: 15%
2.7: 21%
yuma: 22%
Robz: 28%
faust: 100%

[yuma]

So, if everyone starts out at 25% chance, we can assign a number higher or lower than than for our reads, eHalcyon-style.

How do people feel about doing that?

I like this idea. The actual percentage is about 27%, but that hardly matters. I think we should do this, I think it's a better form of popsquiz.

I like the idea of getting people to put their reads out, but I don't like the idea of forcing them to do it a certain style. I for one won't be putting percentages onto my reads... why? Because they would be completely arbitrary... I don't think like that and wouldn't have meaning but instead would have meaning attached to them by others that wasn't intended....

Let people scum-hunt the way they want to. Call out those who aren't at all, but let others do it how they want to...

Hey, it was just an idea to get people talking, putting down reads for the record, etc.  Clearly it didn't work, as the day just stagnated anyway.  At least I tried.

I appreciate the concept, but I think whether or not people put down stuff is more important than how. Just because people didn't follow your lead doesn't mean their reads aren't valid. But I agree, people didn't do anything. So let's call out those people. Would you be willing to go back and look at who those people are?

PS: ash is reading more and more town to me. He reminds me of me in Bankers where I was just overly frustrated like the whole game with everyone and everything about it. I think this is actually quite difficult to fake this (sorry if I am using words that offend here ash, but I did feel this way about myself in Bankers and like I said you remind me of that here) righteous indignation, disgust with town and despair of ever getting anyone to listen to me... so yeah, getting a stronger town read on ash now.

[yuma]

I would like everyone to re-read mail-mi.

I would like everyone (who has played with him before) to ask themselves, "is this how town!mail-mi acts?"

I would like everyone (especially Robz) to consider how we always let mail-mi live, and what that means.

Before I've read anything else

I would like everyone to remember Volt's bias against me. (this is serious)

I would like everyone to read this: YES.

I would like everyone to realize that if mail-mi isn't alive at the end of the game and is town, town loses. (yes this is also semi-serious. Stats say that if you mislynch me, you lose. Look at the games I'm in.)

I think I only bring up biases when I'm scum.

and I think bringing up the metastat of mail-mi not being alive at the end of the game is scummy... I don't think these games offer a large enough sampling size nor a reliable enough set of variables to draw any conclusions from in this area... unless you are trying to manipulate people into thinking a certain set of conclusions...

Bolded that for you.

and your point is?

[2.71828.....]

I might do that tomorrow. Bed for now.

39 hours to deadline

PPE: 2

[mail-mi]

I would like everyone to re-read mail-mi.

I would like everyone (who has played with him before) to ask themselves, "is this how town!mail-mi acts?"

I would like everyone (especially Robz) to consider how we always let mail-mi live, and what that means.

Before I've read anything else

I would like everyone to remember Volt's bias against me. (this is serious)

I would like everyone to read this: YES.

I would like everyone to realize that if mail-mi isn't alive at the end of the game and is town, town loses. (yes this is also semi-serious. Stats say that if you mislynch me, you lose. Look at the games I'm in.)

I think I only bring up biases when I'm scum.

and I think bringing up the metastat of mail-mi not being alive at the end of the game is scummy... I don't think these games offer a large enough sampling size nor a reliable enough set of variables to draw any conclusions from in this area... unless you are trying to manipulate people into thinking a certain set of conclusions...

Bolded that for you.

and your point is?

it was only semi-serious.

[ashersky]

We're looking for one of the following, right?

2-man mafia team
2-man mafia team + 1 SK
3-man mafia team
3-man mafia team + 1 SK

So we're searching for 2, 3, or 4 scum out of 13 total players.

The chance of any one player being scum, without a post being made, is 2/12, 3/12, or 4/12, from my perspective as town.  That means 17%, 25%, or 33%, basically.

25% is the middle, there, and a fair assessment, since the chances are 2, 3, 3, and 4.

So, if everyone starts out at 25% chance, we can assign a number higher or lower than than for our reads, eHalcyon-style.

How do people feel about doing that?

Here's my idea post at #609.  Disregarding the format in which is was posted, people who actually provided reads/popsquizes/etc. are:

2.7, mail-mi, Robz (lamely), yuma, 2.7 (again)

So FOS at everyone else.  Which, unfortunately, is EVERYONE else.


I want to point out that, since #609, chairs has literally posted once, and it was to vote for mail-mi without a reason.

That's a lynch I'd get behind for sure.

[mail-mi]

vote: chairs better than Eevee IMO (and no this isn't just OMGUS, he has about the same number of posts as eevee but has less content and his vote was for no reason other than a poorly-worded sheep of volt and ash.)

[ashersky]

vote: chairs better than Eevee IMO (and no this isn't just OMGUS, he has about the same number of posts as eevee but has less content and his vote was for no reason other than a poorly-worded sheep of volt and ash.)

I don't think you mean ash.  I've not said a thing about you, specifically, and I didn't vote for you.

[mail-mi]

I want to point out that, since #609, chairs has literally posted once, and it was to vote for mail-mi without a reason.

That's a lynch I'd get behind for sure.

I just looked, and it was for liopoil not me.

This is the post, and it was before 609, and yes it was you and volt:

If there's one thing that I think both Voltaire and ashersky (the pair of whom I think contains at most 1 scum) can agree on, it's that we should vote: mail-mi.

[mail-mi]

This is the post, and it was before 609, and yes it was you and volt:

If there's one thing that I think both Voltaire and ashersky (the pair of whom I think contains at most 1 scum) can agree on, it's that we should vote: mail-mi.

this in response to ash's 744

[ashersky]

This is the post, and it was before 609, and yes it was you and volt:

If there's one thing that I think both Voltaire and ashersky (the pair of whom I think contains at most 1 scum) can agree on, it's that we should vote: mail-mi.

this in response to ash's 744

Chairs said that, though, not me.  Not sure why he assumed I'd agree with him on it.  Did I say we should lynch you?  I don't recall.  In my most recent reads list, you definitely weren't in the scumreads section.

[faust]

vote: chairs better than Eevee IMO (and no this isn't just OMGUS, he has about the same number of posts as eevee but has less content and his vote was for no reason other than a poorly-worded sheep of volt and ash.)

vote: mail-mi

You think chairs is a good lynch, fine. But not addressing the reasons everyone has not to lynch him? Scummy.

[faust]

I'll give you some percentages if you want:

Voltaire - 37%
Robz888 - 17%
mail-mi - 40%
Chairs - 36%
Ashersky - 42%
Yuma - 24%
Ichimaru Gin - 27%
Lekkit - 20%
Liopoil - 32%
Teproc - 22%
2.7 - 29%
Eevee - 31%
Faust - 0%