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Author Topic: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs(Town wins!)  (Read 202217 times)

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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #450 on: December 15, 2013, 06:43:06 am »

Ashersky-  Zhang Fei is not my choice of lynch targets.  He is absolutely correct in saying that it seems totally impossible to solve JK9++ (at least this early).  I don't find the lack of a plan scummy either. I am leaning town on ash.

Faust- first post is a joke about getting lynched D1. Second post he jumps on ash for claiming and says ash is a good mislynch. Mentions policy lynching Voltaire for bringing up mass flavor-claiming.  He then throws out some "helpful" stuff about the setup. He has said a bit here or there since then, but it hasn't helped me shake the feeling that Faust is scum.

I will join Zhang Fei and vote: Faust

e, why is my case on ashersky invalid? Also, which of the posts you linked do you find particularly scummy?
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Lekkit

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #451 on: December 15, 2013, 06:47:51 am »

Allright, so I went back and looked at Voltaire since I've had a bad gut feeling about him. I found some interesting things. Bold emphasis mine.


Are we already so sold this is a good idea?  Based on my read of the setup, anybody who actually has a name to claim is a PR.

Really? Maybe that's the source of my confusion.


This is where Voltaire suggests that he's not a VT by saying that chairs might be right about No Face being a role rather than flavor.

Based on my read of the setup, anybody who actually has a name to claim is a PR.

vote: chairs

Here he votes for chairs for not being a VT. Under the assumption that No Face is not a role. Later unvotes, revotes and unvotes once again.

"No Face" doesn't mean "no name".

Takes the No Face is not a role stance once again.

Where can I find a list of who is a "face officer" and who is a "no-face" officer for these characters? I'm at a loss.

Back to No Face = flavor.

I am Zhuge Liang

Hold up. No-one else do this right now. Are you aware we are currently unclear if this just outs all our PRs?

Again reinforcning that No Face might be flavor.

That's why I asked if there's a wiki with a list of who the Face Officers and No-Face Officers are. Because I went to ash's name's page and it doesn't say he's face or no-face, so I'm quite confused.

Also, I do think I want to vote: chairs.

Still doing it. Also voting chairs again. On the assumption that he is no VT but trying to say that No Face might be just flavor and chairs may be right.

All this stuff makes me think Voltaire is vanilla or knows for a fact that No Face is in fact a role. Due to the fact that he's saying that No Face might be a role or just flavor, while his actions says that it's a role, and he knows it. However I'm not sure that makes him town.

Now onto the parts that I think are weird.

Also, massclaim and win? I don't see how mafia can claim any role but VT, and they might have trouble claiming a town alignment too. Point it out if there is something I'm not seeing.

I'm not sure how I, or anyone missed this the first time around. If we assume all scum and VT claim VT all we get is a VT/Scum and PR split. This seriously help scum. I'm assuming the setup is not broken since it's an established one. He actually calls for a roleclaim here and not a flavor claim later on changes it into a desire to flavorclaim.

Right, which is why I trust you here after you said your name - you're either a PR willing to be outed D1, a VT taking a reasonable risk, or scum seeing if they can get away with their claim/mislead town.

Also known as "Right, which is why I trust you here after you said your name - you're a player in this game." That's not a reason to trust someone.

I'm back to vote: Lekkit. To the scumhunting, gentlemen. Robz may or may not be able to help us with this flavor stuff later.

So far I think chairs is town, small town reads on e and Robz, null on everyone else.

"I'm back to RVS. Do your thing, guys and scumhunt!" By this point RVS is over. There's discussion going on. Why revert to it? And why encourage others to scumhunt while leaning back yourself?

If you're town, pretty-please go back and re-read that section. I agree that he came across that way. But he also did another thing. So he's town.

I think it is and should be (slowly) happening now (in the background of each player's head). I'll put forward a more serious explanation later.

Fine, I'll just tell you.

I think chairs is either a PR or scum.

He clearly has a name to claim, and he thinks only PRs have names to claim.

I thought it through, and I don't see why scum would be the first to express confusion on this point. It's similar to the nkirbit "oh huh is that what town is called" in M31 for those of you who were in that game.

So, I think chairs outed himself as a PR.

So... The secret case. That was so bad for town to claim. And yet he tried so hard to get people to get it. In the end he told everyone. As yuma(?) mentioned. It's a really weird thing to do as town.

Oh, I would agree with you that it was not handled well, in retrospect, but I ask you, what's the scum narrative here? It's actually quite nice now, in my eyes, because tons of people are calling me scummy for playing the game. That's actually a best-case scenario I think (expect for the whole chairs thing which, well, oops). I think I got a bit too excited about it because it really, really seemed to implicate ash.

I still have ash and mail-mi as my top scum reads so far.

Voltaire's rebuttal to the secret case response by yuma. Ends it with his top scum reads. Earlier he said:
I am town. I think faust is not scummy. If ashersky is town, I can see how he could find faust scummy. We have the same alignment (maybe), but we disagree.

So basically, ash is his top scumread, but he's not entirely sure about it. Yet encourage people to vote for him without much of an explanation.

With all that said, I think Voltaire has done some things that are not really pro-town. But that does not always make you scummy. However expressing reads with so much determination as he has, backing away in the next post, and then going back to the super strong scum reads doesn't sound good in my ears. So far I think Voltaire is the scummiest around, and I will give him my vote.

Vote: Voltaire
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #452 on: December 15, 2013, 06:55:47 am »

Vote Count 1.4(mobile)

ashersky (1): Faust
Eevee (1): Yuma
Faust (2): ashersky, 2.71828
mail-mi (2): Voltaire, mail-mi
Voltaire (3): mail-mi, Ichimaru Gin, Lekkit

Not Voting (4): Robz888, Liopoil, Eevee, Teproc

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December, 19 at 2:00 p.m. Forum time.
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Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

faust

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #453 on: December 15, 2013, 07:08:22 am »

Lekkit, wasn't it you who earlier argued that we shouldn't talk about the whole claiming thing because it might help scum? Why are you doing it now?
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Lekkit

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #454 on: December 15, 2013, 07:27:31 am »

For two reasons.

One. People are doing it either way. Two. I think Voltaire comes off as very shady due to it.

Also there's a pretty significant difference between, "what does player x think about player y's thoughts on flavor claiming" and "this points to this person doing z".
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #455 on: December 15, 2013, 08:39:13 am »

Scum are confident.

Town change their mind as new evidence presents itself.

I do not think Voltaire is scum.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #456 on: December 15, 2013, 08:42:27 am »

Faust please give a concise outline of your ashersky case. You didn't like him claiming before we "knew" the face/no face stuff about the setup and that he doesn't have a plan?
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Lekkit

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #457 on: December 15, 2013, 08:45:58 am »

Scum are confident.

Town change their mind as new evidence presents itself.

I do not think Voltaire is scum.

Voltaire switches standpoints without any new evidence. He just turns, then turns again. And says he's maintained the same stance.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #458 on: December 15, 2013, 08:49:54 am »

I really think the secret case was just a mistake made by town. I do not think scum would try to secretly communicate that "I think X is a PR" because it sets you up poorly when you want to NK him. Sure scum want to lynch PRs if possible, but PRs can claim L-1 and usually avoid a lynch and end up getting NKed. By telling everyone he thinks chairs is a PR, Voltaire does himself no favors if scum. Just save that information for the scum speccy at night, then NK the PR.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #459 on: December 15, 2013, 08:58:30 am »

Scum are confident.

Town change their mind as new evidence presents itself.

I do not think Voltaire is scum.

Voltaire switches standpoints without any new evidence. He just turns, then turns again. And says he's maintained the same stance.
he switches his stand back and forth over a period of just under 2 hours. The very short time frame says to me that he is just saying his thoughts out loud. A lot. I would think scum are more reserved.

And put your quotes in chronological order next time. It really helps the flow of you read it like he actually posted it.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #460 on: December 15, 2013, 09:07:38 am »

Faust please give a concise outline of your ashersky case. You didn't like him claiming before we "knew" the face/no face stuff about the setup and that he doesn't have a plan?

The central point was already covered here:

Also, vote: ashersky.

That guy is always scum. I mean, in the last game I played with him, he was scum twice!

But seriously: Ashersky flavor-claimed before we knew whether VTs had flavor names. This probably means one of two things:
1) ash himself is a VT, so he already knew. In that case, he's an okay mislynch.
2) ash is scum and had a fake claim provided. In that case, lynch him!

In short, he has a higher-than-average chance of being scum, and a lower-than average chance of being a PR.

Add to this that he wants to lynch chairs, who has a decent chance of being a PR. The whole "he doesn't have a plan thing" is nothing that points strongly toward ash being scum in my eyes, but he has been without plans in his most recent scum plays, so it fits with the rest. I also find it strange how he is "100% sure" that I am scum after like my first two posts.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #461 on: December 15, 2013, 09:09:35 am »

Faust please give a concise outline of your ashersky case. You didn't like him claiming before we "knew" the face/no face stuff about the setup and that he doesn't have a plan?
I just reread all your posts, and you did have a couple more reasons than what I started right here.

You think he is a good mislynch.
And you grab onto thin air by semi-sheeping Voltaire by saying ashersky is scummy for thinking chairs is scummy.

Just wanted to make sure I did full justice to your very scummy case against ashersky.

PPE: Faust
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #462 on: December 15, 2013, 09:12:08 am »

His level of confidence is blah in my mind. He is just putting out strong statements to stimulate discussion.

By but what member of town talks about a good mislynch? Please give a town narrative for why that is not scummy
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #463 on: December 15, 2013, 09:19:09 am »

His level of confidence is blah in my mind. He is just putting out strong statements to stimulate discussion.

By but what member of town talks about a good mislynch? Please give a town narrative for why that is not scummy

Well yes, his level of confidence is not so unusual for ashersky, I guess. But he did not even bother to make a case against me. He just stated "faust is scum!" without any reason at all, and didn't give reasons even after I asked him to.

This is D1. Are we going to find scum? Maybe, but likely not. A VT lynch is not the worst thing that could happen. What IS bad is outing our PRs. Games in which multiple PRs are forced to claim D1 usually end badly for town. So I aim for a player who, if town, is NOT a PR. And I do think that ash is likely scum. It's only, I know it's D1 and my reads may be completely off, so I need to consider the case where my suspect is town. It is for that reason that you don't lynch claimed PRs D1 even if you think they're scum.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #464 on: December 15, 2013, 09:21:48 am »

His level of confidence is blah in my mind. He is just putting out strong statements to stimulate discussion.

By but what member of town talks about a good mislynch? Please give a town narrative for why that is not scummy

Well yes, his level of confidence is not so unusual for ashersky, I guess. But he did not even bother to make a case against me. He just stated "faust is scum!" without any reason at all, and didn't give reasons even after I asked him to.

This is D1. Are we going to find scum? Maybe, but likely not. A VT lynch is not the worst thing that could happen. What IS bad is outing our PRs. Games in which multiple PRs are forced to claim D1 usually end badly for town. So I aim for a player who, if town, is NOT a PR. And I do think that ash is likely scum. It's only, I know it's D1 and my reads may be completely off, so I need to consider the case where my suspect is town. It is for that reason that you don't lynch claimed PRs D1 even if you think they're scum.
giving up on finding scum already.

*shakes head in dismay*
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #465 on: December 15, 2013, 09:24:27 am »

And I am utterly unconvinced by your case against ashersky. It is random, based purely on gut feelings, and could very well end in a mislynch that you are ok with
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #466 on: December 15, 2013, 09:27:35 am »

And ashersky's lack of a plan is almost a town read for me
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #467 on: December 15, 2013, 10:54:44 am »

Vote Count 1.4(mobile)

ashersky (1): Faust
Eevee (1): Yuma
Faust (2): ashersky, 2.71828
mail-mi (2): Voltaire, mail-mi
Voltaire (3): mail-mi, Ichimaru Gin, Lekkit

Not Voting (4): Robz888, Liopoil, Eevee, Teproc

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December, 19 at 2:00 p.m. Forum time.


is mail-mi really self-voting AND voting for Voltaire?  Or is that my vote on mail-mi?

faust

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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #468 on: December 15, 2013, 11:01:46 am »

And I am utterly unconvinced by your case against ashersky. It is random, based purely on gut feelings, and could very well end in a mislynch that you are ok with

This is false. My case is based on
a) ashersky's stance towards claiming. You seriously think it's a nulltell that he flavor-claimed?
b) meta analysis. ashersky is known to come out with a plan D1. If he doesn't, well, that's notable a least.
c) who he suspects, and how he does so. If you're town and convinced that a player is scum, you try to convince others. ashersky doesn't. He also attacks someone who soft-claimed PR.

So this is all just "gut feeling"? If so, I fear every single case that can possibly be made D1 is just "gut feeling".
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #469 on: December 15, 2013, 11:01:59 am »

And ashersky's lack of a plan is almost a town read for me

Why?
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #470 on: December 15, 2013, 11:04:29 am »

His level of confidence is blah in my mind. He is just putting out strong statements to stimulate discussion.

By but what member of town talks about a good mislynch? Please give a town narrative for why that is not scummy

Well yes, his level of confidence is not so unusual for ashersky, I guess. But he did not even bother to make a case against me. He just stated "faust is scum!" without any reason at all, and didn't give reasons even after I asked him to.

This is D1. Are we going to find scum? Maybe, but likely not. A VT lynch is not the worst thing that could happen. What IS bad is outing our PRs. Games in which multiple PRs are forced to claim D1 usually end badly for town. So I aim for a player who, if town, is NOT a PR. And I do think that ash is likely scum. It's only, I know it's D1 and my reads may be completely off, so I need to consider the case where my suspect is town. It is for that reason that you don't lynch claimed PRs D1 even if you think they're scum.
giving up on finding scum already.

*shakes head in dismay*

Seriously, you should stop turning around everything I say so it appears scummy. You think I'm scum, I get that. But don't let this cloud your judgment. There is serious confirmation bias at work here.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #471 on: December 15, 2013, 01:12:24 pm »

Okay I had some time to read.

I appreciate the effort put into these cases against Voltaire--lekkit's was remarkably thorough!--but I really just don't agree. Voltaire I think reacted like a normal town person would to new information. I think probably the best line of criticism against him is that he was very much on the lookout for a PR when the rest if us missed it. That's not enough for me in his case.

I would have to be ridiculously convinced that Voltaire was scum to vote for him on day 1.

Uh, so Voltaire thinks mail-mi is scum, why again? Just because, always?

I'm waffling on whether I think ash is scum. I don't think his lack of a plan is scummy, and his xplanation that he is just overburdened with other games and stuff right now makes complete sense. His certainty that Faust is scum is baseless, however, and I'm thinking that a higher level of scrutiny of ash's ridiculous statements is in order in general.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #472 on: December 15, 2013, 01:19:16 pm »

Robz, ashersky's certainty over Faust might be off, but what do you think about Faust in general? Do you lean town or scum?
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #473 on: December 15, 2013, 01:20:12 pm »

Vote: liopoil

Now that we can talk about Toy Story mafia, my scum partner liopoil did a good job in later days, but I think he really struggled to make early contributions as scum. He is struggling with that here, too. In fact his most recent contribution was only to point out that he doesn't have any contributions.
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Re: Mafia XXXVI: Dynasty Warriors Mafia 2 The Battle of Red Cliffs
« Reply #474 on: December 15, 2013, 01:21:32 pm »

Robz, ashersky's certainty over Faust might be off, but what do you think about Faust in general? Do you lean town or scum?

Totally neutral. I like that he's contributing. Actually, the only time I saw scum Faust he was closer to a lurker, but I don't know he's just gotten more active as he's played more games. But anyway I have no reason to think he is scum here. Do you?
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