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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 169342 times)

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Jimmmmm

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1551 on: December 27, 2013, 04:03:59 am »

You

?

You is Jimm, Walrus, 2.7. The non-suspects. The claimed PRs who are all but ICs at this point. It's your decision.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1552 on: December 27, 2013, 04:10:35 am »

A thought I just had: e, it's probably too late since you've already flavour-claimed, but is there any way you can think of to use your flavour to communicate to us who you will guard Tonight in the event that you're dead Tomorrow, without giving it away to scum?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1553 on: December 27, 2013, 10:01:32 am »

Vote Count 3.9

Voltaire (1): Robz
Robz (3): Jimmmmm, Voltaire, Walrus (L-2)
Teproc (1): 2.7

Not Voting (3): Teproc, manda, mcmcsalot

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day3 will end December 27 at 8:00 pm forum time. (10 days + 2 for Christmas)
That's in 10 hours!
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1554 on: December 27, 2013, 11:01:04 am »

I am LA until deadline, so I won't be able to move my vote FYI.
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1555 on: December 27, 2013, 01:21:07 pm »

I slept on my read last night and nothing has changed, so I'm going to go ahead and vote: Robz.
I'll be at work until the deadline, with a poooooossible chance to check in at some point between 3 and 6 forum time, so I likely won't be able to move my vote.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1556 on: December 27, 2013, 01:23:06 pm »

We'll with little activity I doubt anything else will go theough, here's hoping robz is scum

vote:

L-1 I believe

Ppe: well then I guess intent to hammer?
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1557 on: December 27, 2013, 01:28:05 pm »

Vote Count 3.10

Voltaire (1): Robz
Robz (4): Jimmmmm, Voltaire, Walrus, Manda (L-2)
Teproc (1): 2.7

Not Voting (2): Teproc, mcmcsalot

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day3 will end December 27 at 8:00 pm forum time. (10 days + 2 for Christmas)
That's in 8.5 hours!
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1558 on: December 27, 2013, 01:28:30 pm »

Robz is at L-1, not L-2 as the previous post count suggests.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1559 on: December 27, 2013, 01:29:59 pm »

vote: robz888

Let's see!
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1560 on: December 27, 2013, 01:32:47 pm »

Vote Count 3.Final

Voltaire (1): Robz
Robz (5): Jimmmmm, Voltaire, Walrus, Manda, Mcmcsalot
Teproc (1): 2.7

Not Voting (1): Teproc

With 8 alive it took 5 to lynch.

Twilight for a bit!
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1561 on: December 27, 2013, 01:42:21 pm »

Was coming in here to do a Robz reread... I guess that will have to wait a little !
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1562 on: December 27, 2013, 02:55:14 pm »

Okay that's fine. As you will learn soon, I am town.

I really am quite reasonably convinced that Voltaire is town. Please, please lynch him tomorrow. I could be wrong of course, but my scum read on him is strong. He's been much more muted here, less of a leader--a trait I've noticed in him as scum. Also he's so good at reading me, and he got me wrong here--I don't think I did, he's just scum.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1563 on: December 27, 2013, 02:56:13 pm »

<insert flavor>

Robz888 has been lynched. He was Oompa Loompa from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, a Vanilla Townie

Night 3 begins, and will end December 29 at 4:00 PM. Please send night actions to both myself and Yuma. Each player is required to check-in via PM to the mods, as well.

THREAD LOCKED!!!
« Last Edit: December 29, 2013, 10:33:39 am by yuma »
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1564 on: December 29, 2013, 05:52:40 pm »

Day4 Start

<insert flavor at some point when I have more time> #worstflavorever

Jimmmmm, Grandpa Joe (from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory), the Town Goon Cop died during the night.

Day4 Starts Now!

Thread Unlocked!






Vote Count 4.1

Not Voting (6): Teproc, mcmcsalot, manda, Voltaire, 2.7, Walrus,

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for Day4 is January 8 at 6:00 pm forum time.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1565 on: December 29, 2013, 06:06:05 pm »

Not happy the Robz lynch went through before I got back.  It seemed like his lynch was inevitable, but since we had taken the entire day to get to that point, I wish we could have at least waited a few more hours at least.  I would have hammered for a lynch even if he wasn't my #1 candidate because we did need a lynch
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1566 on: December 29, 2013, 06:08:20 pm »

Also, I protected Walrus last night.  I basically had to choose between Walrus and Jimmmmm.  I chose Walrus because I did not think that scum had any more regular goons.  Looks like I was wrong.  I think the Jimmmmm lynch tells us that they DO have at least one goon, otherwise I doubt they would have targeted Jimmmmm
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1567 on: December 29, 2013, 08:36:24 pm »

I think no-lynch today is the right call, but I don't want us to deadline out to it (I learned how horrid that was in Toy Story). I say we set a soft deadline at which point we'll all vote for no-lynch, but get our discussion in beforehand. Alternately, we can decide how much we want to trust Walrus to stop a kill if we risk mislynching today and go for scum right now (but I think that's a bad idea).

Robz flipping town made me suspect Teproc more but Jimmmmm as the NK has reversed all of that. mcmc is now my top suspect.
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1568 on: December 29, 2013, 08:59:43 pm »

I roleblocker Volt last night. Probably won't have time to post more until tomorrow.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1569 on: December 29, 2013, 10:00:14 pm »

Assuming Walrus is not trying to pull off an amazing scum performance by throwing his partner under the bus by counterfakeclaiming his partners fakeclaim, there is a lynch pool of 4 players with 2 scum.  Which means that the 2 town members have a 2/3 shot of hitting scum. 

I do not want to no-lynch

In fact, vote: voltaire because of his "reasonable" argument for the no-lynch

Scum will NK myself or Walrus.  you don't learn anything from that.  at all.  Actually, you will probably learn that I am the bodyguard because I will bodyguard Walrus and die doing it.  Or scum will strongman Walrus. 

I think there is a much better chance that we lynch scum today than if we no-lynch.  tomorrow, scum needs to get one town member to vote the wrong person, they jump on it and game over.  We need a lynch today.  We need to be confident.  It is scum!volt telling us we don't need to lynch today
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1570 on: December 29, 2013, 10:01:16 pm »

looking back, he didn't really argue for a no-lynch, but he made it clear that he wanted one.  Still, I think scum want a no-lynch.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1571 on: December 29, 2013, 10:48:43 pm »

Assuming Walrus is not trying to pull off an amazing scum performance by throwing his partner under the bus by counterfakeclaiming his partners fakeclaim, there is a lynch pool of 4 players with 2 scum.  Which means that the 2 town members have a 2/3 shot of hitting scum. 

I do not want to no-lynch

In fact, vote: voltaire because of his "reasonable" argument for the no-lynch

Scum will NK myself or Walrus.  you don't learn anything from that.  at all.  Actually, you will probably learn that I am the bodyguard because I will bodyguard Walrus and die doing it.  Or scum will strongman Walrus. 

I think there is a much better chance that we lynch scum today than if we no-lynch.  tomorrow, scum needs to get one town member to vote the wrong person, they jump on it and game over.  We need a lynch today.  We need to be confident.  It is scum!volt telling us we don't need to lynch today

What do we gain by taking a bigger risk today? Seriously, I don't see why this is wrong.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1572 on: December 29, 2013, 11:01:18 pm »

Assuming Walrus is not trying to pull off an amazing scum performance by throwing his partner under the bus by counterfakeclaiming his partners fakeclaim, there is a lynch pool of 4 players with 2 scum.  Which means that the 2 town members have a 2/3 shot of hitting scum. 

I do not want to no-lynch

In fact, vote: voltaire because of his "reasonable" argument for the no-lynch

Scum will NK myself or Walrus.  you don't learn anything from that.  at all.  Actually, you will probably learn that I am the bodyguard because I will bodyguard Walrus and die doing it.  Or scum will strongman Walrus. 

I think there is a much better chance that we lynch scum today than if we no-lynch.  tomorrow, scum needs to get one town member to vote the wrong person, they jump on it and game over.  We need a lynch today.  We need to be confident.  It is scum!volt telling us we don't need to lynch today

What do we gain by taking a bigger risk today? Seriously, I don't see why this is wrong.
It is not a "bigger risk" lynching today.  It is a "bigger risk" lynching tomorrow and no-lynching today.  The reason for this is because we have 2 quasi-ICs, myself and walrus.  We will be the ones to die overnight.  What are you playing for, that scum will kill one of 4 of you in the lynch pool?  We learn nothing at all other than that we (walrus and I) are in fact the roles that we claimed (which I already believe). 

So right now it takes 4 people to lynch.  so it takes 2 town+2 scum to mislynch.  Tomorrow it would take 1 town+ 2 scum to mislynch.  I like our chances to avoid a mislynch today.  So it is actually a bigger risk waiting for tomorrow to lynch
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1573 on: December 30, 2013, 05:45:20 pm »

OK, so assuming scum is between Voltaire, manda and mcmc, because otherwise I guess I'll just applaud Walrus/Jimmmm for an insane scum game, if we no lynch, what happens ?

Walrus roleblocks one of those three, and I'm going to assume he has a 33% chance to hit the one performing the kill. If he does, it's great because we found scum and can lynch scum immediately. If he doesn't, scum gets to kill someone and we're at lylo. Basically we risk to get to lylo for a chance to just lynch scum automatically. That looks okay I guess, but the problem is the possibility of the strongman kill. If I were scum, I would try to keep it as long as possible, so there's a decent chance they still have that. Because of strongman, I don't think no lynch is a great idea.

Now would Voltaire propose it as scum ? I guess it depends if he still has strongman or not. If he does he would, if he doesn't I don't think he would.

After the Robz flip, I thought Voltaire was definitely scum that had manipulated me all along. The thing is, that's exactly what I thought after the Walrus lynch in GoT : angry that we lynched town and paranoid that Voltaire, the other lynch candidate that I had a town read on, had been playing me. I then proceeded to exclude the two lurkers from ym possible scum teams : mail-mi and Eeevee, and suspect the active players : yuma and Voltaire. As it turns out, it was mail-mi and Eevee. Is it possible that we're facing a similar situation here with a mcmc/manda scum team ? I need to look at their interactions with ash, and I'll try to do that in the next few days (not sure I will be able to before Dynasty Warriors goes into night).
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1574 on: December 30, 2013, 05:46:22 pm »

Actually Walrus could alos roleblock me of course since I'm in his lynch pool, so make that 25%.
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