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[ashersky]

At least one scum was off-wagon, I'd say.  Mathematically, easier to hit scum off-wagon today, I suppose,from an outsider's perspective, but from my own, up to 2 out of 4 on wagon with me were scum, so that's slightly higher chances there.

I disagree with this in principal and also with your maths. If we assume that there are 2 scum on-wagon and 1 off, then there are 2 of 6 on and 1 of 3 off, which are equal chances. I also disagree with assuming anything about how scum would distribute themselves.

That's fine, but it is valid analysis either way.  I tend to believe that scum teams are very cognizant of whether they are on/off wagon together, and also of doing NKs on/off wagon.

Harry Potter is a great example of scum shooting themselves in the foot by kill on-wagon on N1.

Here, does scum really kill on-wagon and reduce that pool by one if they are mostly there?  WIFOM, sure, but man, you have to consider it.

I remember a scumteam - in fact I think it was RMM9, with you on it - deliberately planning to all either be on-wagon or off-wagon together, because people wouldn't expect that. Have you forgotten this, or are you choosing not to remember it?

Yep, the ninth non-mod post in the Mafia QT:

"Another thing, I think it'd be great if we were all on or off lynch wagon on D1. Wagon analysis invariably turns to were they on or off, and usually falls on a split. If we are all together, it helps survive later in the game. "

And you're trying to make us assume how scum will split between on- and off-wagon?

Vote: ashersky

If I was trying to keep people from thinking about it, I wouldn't have starting talking about it, would I?

Of course I remember that QT, and that planning.  Didn't work out, though.  Brilliant idea at the time, but was there for everyone who ever read the QT to see, and so I'd say pretty stupid to emulate now.

Are you waiting for me to pull something straight from my Mean Girls performance, too?

Shall I go copy and paste things from LOTR1 and match them up with things you do here?

[ashersky]

Also, you just proved MY point.  We have to analyze the wagons.  We have to decide if scum is more likely on or off.

You also forgot to take into account something key -- the scum team can't plan to be all together because one of them is scum all by his/her lonesome.

It is impossible for them to plan to be on/off wagon together, unless they recruited.

I think this makes you more likely to be town, though, since I don't think scum would make that mistake.

[Jimmmmm]

Shall I go copy and paste things from LOTR1 and match them up with things you do here?

Be my guest. For someone who is all about people's metas which are all about past performances, you seem really offended that I've brought up one of yours.

[ashersky]

Shall I go copy and paste things from LOTR1 and match them up with things you do here?

Be my guest. For someone who is all about people's metas which are all about past performances, you seem really offended that I've brought up one of yours.

I'm honored you memorized my play.

I'm annoyed that you think I would repeat something so blatantly, and from such a recent scum game.  You really do think I'm an idiot.

[Jimmmmm]

Also, you just proved MY point.  We have to analyze the wagons.  We have to decide if scum is more likely on or off.

Your point was that there was probably 2 scum on, 1 off. My first point is that no you can't assume this. My bigger point is that you should know better than that.

You also forgot to take into account something key -- the scum team can't plan to be all together because one of them is scum all by his/her lonesome.

It is impossible for them to plan to be on/off wagon together, unless they recruited.

You know for a fact that they didn't?

[Jimmmmm]

I'm annoyed that you think I would repeat something so blatantly, and from such a recent scum game.  You really do think I'm an idiot.

This is that old "Your play makes no sense as Town." "But it makes no sense as scum either!" fallacy. It doesn't work.

[Jimmmmm]

In other news, manda was posting in this thread, and now is not.

manda, say something!

[Jimmmmm]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

[manda2014]

Post Count:

Voltaire - 81
Walrus - 28
Robz - 76
Jimmmm - 104
ashersky - 107
faust - 66
Jorbles - 43
manda - 20
Teproc - 53
morgrim - 32
2.7 - 99
mcmcsalot - 47

that post count is skewed because of all the v/la though. Manda is the only one I really think is to note from D1, because she went missing at the end.

I'm here! First I want to apologize for basically disappearing at the end of D1... school+work got super crazy (finals next week, papers due, etc.), and honestly in the midst of everything it didn't occur to me to come on and get my 2 cents in until it was too late. I know I said in pre-game that I wouldn't be very active until after school got out but I don't think I realized just how hectic it would be. Only one more week though, and then I'll have time to play a little more faithfully....

Anyway!

Well the obvious thing about Jorbles is the semi-random wagon that ran up at the end of D1. Here's the question: does the NK suggest that scum is more likely to be on or off that wagon?

I think this is an interesting question. Obviously I was on the wagon, for (real life and in-game) reasons I think were justified--there was little enough information to go on that I was comfortable with a random lynch that would provide more information, and I knew that I wouldn't have time to commit to any serious analysis. However, the fact that he got NK'd definitely adds a new dimension to that wagon. So the question is: What about Jorbles' play D1 would invite a lynch?

My first thought was that perhaps scum is trying to find PRs and eliminate them from play, but I looked over Jorbles' D1 posts and I didn't see anything that sounded particularly like breadcrumbing, or even an unintentional implication of a PR. My second thought was that he got too close in his votes/analyses (2.7 & Ash)--if this is the justification for a lynch, it makes more sense that scum would be on wagon.... Better that "town" gets rid of the threat and you can spend your NK on a potential PR. 

PPE: I WAS posting.

[Jimmmmm]

Ah there she is!

[ashersky]

Also, you just proved MY point.  We have to analyze the wagons.  We have to decide if scum is more likely on or off.

Your point was that there was probably 2 scum on, 1 off. My first point is that no you can't assume this. My bigger point is that you should know better than that.

My guess is that it is 2 on, 1 off, yes.  I could be wrong, and the scum team is you, manda, and Walrus.  Actually, that sounds very possible.  AND you remember my note about how it would be pretty awesome for a scum team to be able to stay all on or all off wagon.  So perhaps you planned it?

You also forgot to take into account something key -- the scum team can't plan to be all together because one of them is scum all by his/her lonesome.

It is impossible for them to plan to be on/off wagon together, unless they recruited.

You know for a fact that they didn't?

You know for a fact they did?

[ashersky]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

[Jimmmmm]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

OMGUS?

Back to Vote: ashersky

[ashersky]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

OMGUS?

Back to Vote: ashersky

OMGUS?  I didn't even vote for you.

Or you mean how you are voting me now?

Like I said before your ridiculousness, your missteps made you seem more likely town to me.

[ashersky]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

This is also a valid point, in my opinion.  A safe vote for someone for something you knew would be rectified, a vote you didn't really mean.  Scum wants to do this.  They want to put down votes on their partners but be able to take them off without drawing suspicion.

Look, that's what you did.

[Jimmmmm]

You also forgot to take into account something key -- the scum team can't plan to be all together because one of them is scum all by his/her lonesome.

It is impossible for them to plan to be on/off wagon together, unless they recruited.

You know for a fact that they didn't?

You know for a fact they did?

No, I never assumed they did. You seemed to assume they didn't.

[ashersky]

You also forgot to take into account something key -- the scum team can't plan to be all together because one of them is scum all by his/her lonesome.

It is impossible for them to plan to be on/off wagon together, unless they recruited.

You know for a fact that they didn't?

You know for a fact they did?

No, I never assumed they did. You seemed to assume they didn't.

Go read D1.  The consensus was that mafia probably wouldn't.  Of their choices, that one was pretty darn weak, and not worth giving town an extra PR.

[Jimmmmm]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

OMGUS?

Back to Vote: ashersky

OMGUS?  I didn't even vote for you.

Or you mean how you are voting me now?

Like I said before your ridiculousness, your missteps made you seem more likely town to me.

OMGUS doesn't necessarily have to include a vote. You're saying I'm scum - why not vote for me? So you can say it's not OMGUS?

[Jimmmmm]

Also, what ridiculousness?

[ashersky]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

OMGUS?

Back to Vote: ashersky

OMGUS?  I didn't even vote for you.

Or you mean how you are voting me now?

Like I said before your ridiculousness, your missteps made you seem more likely town to me.

OMGUS doesn't necessarily have to include a vote. You're saying I'm scum - why not vote for me? So you can say it's not OMGUS?

Again, for the third time, I most recently said that you seemed MORE LIKELY TOWN to me.  You are OMGUSing my slight town read on you?  That makes no sense.

[manda2014]

I also don't like the idea of marketing the lynch pool so soon. Let's see what our IC had to say before we do anything like that

I'm also really interested to hear what the IC has to say before getting too deep into an analytic spiral.

[Jimmmmm]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

This is also a valid point, in my opinion.  A safe vote for someone for something you knew would be rectified, a vote you didn't really mean.  Scum wants to do this.  They want to put down votes on their partners but be able to take them off without drawing suspicion.

Look, that's what you did.

I voted for manda to get her to post. She posted. So I went back to my scumread.

[manda2014]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

OMGUS?

Back to Vote: ashersky

OMGUS?  I didn't even vote for you.

Or you mean how you are voting me now?

Like I said before your ridiculousness, your missteps made you seem more likely town to me.

OMGUS doesn't necessarily have to include a vote. You're saying I'm scum - why not vote for me? So you can say it's not OMGUS?

Again, for the third time, I most recently said that you seemed MORE LIKELY TOWN to me.  You are OMGUSing my slight town read on you?  That makes no sense.

Or an OMGUS spiral....

[Jimmmmm]

manda was again viewing this thread, and again had nothing to say.

Vote: manda

Prodding your partner to post?  Didn't select daychat, I see.

OMGUS?

Back to Vote: ashersky

OMGUS?  I didn't even vote for you.

Or you mean how you are voting me now?

Like I said before your ridiculousness, your missteps made you seem more likely town to me.

OMGUS doesn't necessarily have to include a vote. You're saying I'm scum - why not vote for me? So you can say it's not OMGUS?

Again, for the third time, I most recently said that you seemed MORE LIKELY TOWN to me.  You are OMGUSing my slight town read on you?  That makes no sense.

Wait, you're saying I'm OMGUSing you?

[ashersky]

Also, what ridiculousness?

The "oh oh ash said something once in a previous mafia QT and that must mean he's stupid enough to immediately repeat it this game" thing.


PPE: OMGUS