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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 169605 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #775 on: December 03, 2013, 11:36:05 am »

Yes, no offence to you Faust, I think this is one of those situation where you are confirmed town but not confirmed right. I think Morg is our best lynch by far today.

Also note he has still done nothing to help us since his outrageous claim. Oh other than unvote himself...
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #776 on: December 03, 2013, 11:36:53 am »

When a town pr is really a town pr and claim trying to get the lynch of them, they fight. Or at least I do, morg doesn't care to help us.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #777 on: December 03, 2013, 11:44:29 am »

Yes, no offence to you Faust, I think this is one of those situation where you are confirmed town but not confirmed right. I think Morg is our best lynch by far today.

Also note he has still done nothing to help us since his outrageous claim. Oh other than unvote himself...

Right. He's doing very little to avoid being lynched. Whether he would try to avoid being lynched as scum or Town who knows, but you've got to think that he'd put at least some effort in if scum.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #778 on: December 03, 2013, 11:47:36 am »

Most recent Morgrim opinions. Let me know if any of this is wrong:

Voting Morgrim: Robz, mcmc, teproc, ashersky, Jorbles
Intent to vote Morgrim: Voltaire
OK to watch Morgrim lynch: 2.7, Jimmmmm(?)
Will not vote for: faust, Walrus
Who knows: Morgrim, manda

So we need manda to get back here.

Another thing to think about: if Morgrim is the traitor, scum has an incredibly risky position to take. Do they lynch Morgrim, risking they're lynching one of their own? Or do they happily lynching Morgrim, hoping they're taking out a town PR D1?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #779 on: December 03, 2013, 11:48:30 am »

Yes, no offence to you Faust, I think this is one of those situation where you are confirmed town but not confirmed right. I think Morg is our best lynch by far today.

Also note he has still done nothing to help us since his outrageous claim. Oh other than unvote himself...

Right. He's doing very little to avoid being lynched. Whether he would try to avoid being lynched as scum or Town who knows, but you've got to think that he'd put at least some effort in if scum.

No no no no no no! We cannot continue this X is trying really hard he must be scum or Y doesn't even care hes getting lynched he can't be scum. Your town, you are obligated to try and find scum and lynch them, you are obligated to fight your own lynch. As scum you should try to do the same, but if you choose not to all you do is hurt your faction whatever that is. So if morgrim is town he is hurting town, if he is scum he is hurting town(by being scum) if we let him live he continues to hurt town, if w lynch him he stops hurting town. No amount of apathy will change that!
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #780 on: December 03, 2013, 11:50:47 am »

When a town pr is really a town pr and claim trying to get the lynch of them, they fight. Or at least I do, morg doesn't care to help us.

If you exchange "town PR" with "scum" in the sentence above, it still works. So Morgrim not defending himself is a nulltell at best.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #781 on: December 03, 2013, 11:51:05 am »

Yes, no offence to you Faust, I think this is one of those situation where you are confirmed town but not confirmed right. I think Morg is our best lynch by far today.

Also note he has still done nothing to help us since his outrageous claim. Oh other than unvote himself...

Right. He's doing very little to avoid being lynched. Whether he would try to avoid being lynched as scum or Town who knows, but you've got to think that he'd put at least some effort in if scum.

No no no no no no! We cannot continue this X is trying really hard he must be scum or Y doesn't even care hes getting lynched he can't be scum. Your town, you are obligated to try and find scum and lynch them, you are obligated to fight your own lynch. As scum you should try to do the same, but if you choose not to all you do is hurt your faction whatever that is. So if morgrim is town he is hurting town, if he is scum he is hurting town(by being scum) if we let him live he continues to hurt town, if w lynch him he stops hurting town. No amount of apathy will change that!

Why? Unfortunately that's how it is sometimes. We shouldn't lynch the least helpful Town, we should lynch scum.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #782 on: December 03, 2013, 11:53:02 am »

Most recent Morgrim opinions. Let me know if any of this is wrong:

Voting Morgrim: Robz, mcmc, teproc, ashersky, Jorbles
Intent to vote Morgrim: Voltaire
OK to watch Morgrim lynch: 2.7, Jimmmmm(?)
Will not vote for: faust, Walrus
Who knows: Morgrim, manda

So we need manda to get back here.

Another thing to think about: if Morgrim is the traitor, scum has an incredibly risky position to take. Do they lynch Morgrim, risking they're lynching one of their own? Or do they happily lynching Morgrim, hoping they're taking out a town PR D1?

I want to lynch Morgrim because he's frustrating and unhelpful. But I'm loath to lynch a claimed PR who, if truthful, can potentially give us decent results.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #783 on: December 03, 2013, 11:55:06 am »

I want to lynch Morgrim because he's frustrating and unhelpful. But I'm loath to lynch a claimed PR who, if truthful, can potentially give us decent results.

Faust pointed out how this is unlikely:

How much use will a Tracker be? Not much. Likely, if Morgrim is telling the truth, all our PRs are outed (we might have one more). This means he has to target the one scum that performs the night kill to be useful, and live through the night. Then still, there's lots of WFIOM because Morgrim could still be scum.

The information whether Morgrim is telling the truth might be more useful for us than his Tracker ability.

and I agree with it. I also think the odds Morgrim fake-claimed ala ashersky's thinking to be extremely high.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #784 on: December 03, 2013, 11:56:13 am »

Yes, no offence to you Faust, I think this is one of those situation where you are confirmed town but not confirmed right. I think Morg is our best lynch by far today.

Also note he has still done nothing to help us since his outrageous claim. Oh other than unvote himself...

Right. He's doing very little to avoid being lynched. Whether he would try to avoid being lynched as scum or Town who knows, but you've got to think that he'd put at least some effort in if scum.

No no no no no no! We cannot continue this X is trying really hard he must be scum or Y doesn't even care hes getting lynched he can't be scum. Your town, you are obligated to try and find scum and lynch them, you are obligated to fight your own lynch. As scum you should try to do the same, but if you choose not to all you do is hurt your faction whatever that is. So if morgrim is town he is hurting town, if he is scum he is hurting town(by being scum) if we let him live he continues to hurt town, if w lynch him he stops hurting town. No amount of apathy will change that!

Why? Unfortunately that's how it is sometimes. We shouldn't lynch the least helpful Town, we should lynch scum.

But it's D1, yes if we were close to Mylo this would be different, lynching least helpful Town D1 is not a bad lynch. It makes it easier to lynch scum later.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #785 on: December 03, 2013, 11:57:28 am »

Yes, no offence to you Faust, I think this is one of those situation where you are confirmed town but not confirmed right. I think Morg is our best lynch by far today.

Also note he has still done nothing to help us since his outrageous claim. Oh other than unvote himself...

Right. He's doing very little to avoid being lynched. Whether he would try to avoid being lynched as scum or Town who knows, but you've got to think that he'd put at least some effort in if scum.

No no no no no no! We cannot continue this X is trying really hard he must be scum or Y doesn't even care hes getting lynched he can't be scum. Your town, you are obligated to try and find scum and lynch them, you are obligated to fight your own lynch. As scum you should try to do the same, but if you choose not to all you do is hurt your faction whatever that is. So if morgrim is town he is hurting town, if he is scum he is hurting town(by being scum) if we let him live he continues to hurt town, if w lynch him he stops hurting town. No amount of apathy will change that!

Why? Unfortunately that's how it is sometimes. We shouldn't lynch the least helpful Town, we should lynch scum.

But it's D1, yes if we were close to Mylo this would be different, lynching least helpful Town D1 is not a bad lynch. It makes it easier to lynch scum later.

It is if that Town is a PR who can actually provide helpfulness due to his role.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #786 on: December 03, 2013, 12:01:14 pm »

faust, what do you want to have happen before a lynch? I'm willing to vote morgrim but that runs the risk he self-hammers. With the exception of manda, I'm fine with the day ending.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #787 on: December 03, 2013, 12:04:03 pm »

Yes, manda's statement is the big thing. I would also like to hear from Morgrim again.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #788 on: December 03, 2013, 01:17:13 pm »

When a town pr is really a town pr and claim trying to get the lynch of them, they fight. Or at least I do, morg doesn't care to help us.

If you exchange "town PR" with "scum" in the sentence above, it still works. So Morgrim not defending himself is a nulltell at best.
The sentence actually does not work for Morgrim.  Because he did not claim his PR trying to get the lynch off him. (I assume mcmc meant "off" and not "of")
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #789 on: December 03, 2013, 01:30:25 pm »

I am also willing to vote morgrim.  After going through and analyzing some of the situations that might occur when not lynching either morgrim or myself, it basically ends in a whole bunch of WIFOM that will distract town from scum hunting most likely for a large portion of D2 and maybe into D3. That is scum's goal.  Detract from scum hunting. 

Manda not being around is troubling.  Like I really don't like it.  It has been 36 hours since her last post
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 24 hours of no activity (VLA posts in the official VLA thread negate automatic prods). A prodded player has 24 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.

Yuma, can you prod manda

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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #790 on: December 03, 2013, 02:03:34 pm »

I don't think waiting around for manda will do anything.  Hopefully she is able to fully participate D2.  Giving her the night to do a reread is fine with me.  Hopefully we will not need a replacement overnight.  But you never know

As I mentioned my last post, I convinced myself here that lynching Morgrim is the best option for town.  Not merely because there is chance that Morgrim flips scum, but because even if he is the tracker we will never really trust what he says.

vote: Morgrim.  This is L-1

I would like Morgrim to post more content, but if that additional content is a self-hammer, so be it.  I do not think we will learn such a significantly more amount of knowledge from him in a few posts that will make it so much better for town on coming days.

I also hope that the IC hammers, not some other person.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #791 on: December 03, 2013, 02:10:47 pm »

I also hope that the IC hammers, not some other person.

Really? I hope someone else does. It's much more informative.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #792 on: December 03, 2013, 02:12:53 pm »

I also hope that the IC hammers, not some other person.

Really? I hope someone else does. It's much more informative.
Good point. Hammer anyone?  Voltaire expressed interest in voting
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #793 on: December 03, 2013, 02:17:22 pm »

I'm ready for a hammer as well.

I've been mentally backing off my insistence on lynching Morgrim a little bit as I remember all those times I said, "He's just crazy, never scum." But, okay, he expects me to say that by now, doesn't it? So ultimately I think there is still just too strong a chance this was scum play... and if it wasn't scum play, this is the not a terrible lynch (we weren't going to get much out of our Tracker, anyway), and I think a decently informational Day 1.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #794 on: December 03, 2013, 02:24:16 pm »

I'm fine with Voltaire (or Jimmmm or whoever) hammering as well. manda being absent sucks but I doubt her opinion is going to suddenly sway everyone.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #795 on: December 03, 2013, 02:25:43 pm »

Another thing: IC said I could bodyguard anyone I think is a good target.

I already gave Robz a D2 pass, so bodyguarding him would be straight up favoritism.  Anyone else want to make a pitch as to why they should be guaranteed to survive N1?





(before anyone goes ballistic, the D2 pass for Robz was a joke.  Thought I should clear that up)
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #796 on: December 03, 2013, 02:39:00 pm »

Another thing: IC said I could bodyguard anyone I think is a good target.

I already gave Robz a D2 pass, so bodyguarding him would be straight up favoritism.  Anyone else want to make a pitch as to why they should be guaranteed to survive N1?





(before anyone goes ballistic, the D2 pass for Robz was a joke.  Thought I should clear that up)

I'll make a pitch to hope NOONE makes a pitch and publicly causes you to make a decision that is not 100% your own and guessable by scum.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #797 on: December 03, 2013, 02:41:35 pm »

Another thing: IC said I could bodyguard anyone I think is a good target.

I already gave Robz a D2 pass, so bodyguarding him would be straight up favoritism.  Anyone else want to make a pitch as to why they should be guaranteed to survive N1?

If I were you I'd protect faust. I don't think you should broadcast what you're going to do, but I would like the IC to survive to Day 2.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #798 on: December 03, 2013, 02:47:35 pm »

We've got, what, 31 hours before deadline. I'll hammer to avoid a no-lynch but not otherwise.

faust, if you want to call for a different, non-claimed-PR lynch, you had better do it quickly.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #799 on: December 03, 2013, 02:48:56 pm »

I think this is clearly the best move. We've hashed this out enough. vote: Morgrim.
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