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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 169375 times)

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1625 on: January 04, 2014, 09:56:54 pm »

Vote Count 4.5

Voltaire (2): 2.7, mcmc
mcmc (1): Voltaire

Not Voting (3): Teproc, manda, Walrus

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for Day4 is January 8 at 6:00 pm forum time.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1626 on: January 04, 2014, 10:40:19 pm »

Yeah, the quickhammer that didn't happen / isn't happening on Voltaire is interesting. It basically means that either he is scum or one of his voters is scum right ?

That would shape it up as a Voltaire vs mcmc but, much like Walrus, I'm weirded out by the lack of attention manda got in this game. ash did have somewhat of a weak case on her on day 1, which I think is a pretty safe thing to do as scum (especially since she wasn't getting lynched thanks to people giving day 1 passes), although I think he did that with mcmc as well ? I'll have more time now (back home from vacation) so I'll have to reread ash looking for interactions with Voltaire/mcmc/manda (aka my lynch pool).
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1627 on: January 05, 2014, 10:57:09 am »

teproc is right and this solidifies my read on volt, he has to be scum or scum would have already hammered.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1628 on: January 05, 2014, 03:23:25 pm »

I'm still completely torn about this. Anybody have any other comments about either the lack of a quickhammer or the weird ash-manda connection?
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1629 on: January 05, 2014, 04:05:01 pm »

teproc is right and this solidifies my read on volt, he has to be scum or scum would have already hammered.

No, it means you're scum. I noticed this quite awhile ago, and it's why I freaked out when I was at L-1 (or so I thought). I agree, today should be me vs. mcmc, and you really really really should lynch mcmc.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1630 on: January 05, 2014, 05:58:11 pm »

teproc is right and this solidifies my read on volt, he has to be scum or scum would have already hammered.

No, it means you're scum. I noticed this quite awhile ago, and it's why I freaked out when I was at L-1 (or so I thought). I agree, today should be me vs. mcmc, and you really really really should lynch mcmc.

Volt or me is who we need to lynch the case against me is I an lurky and ash made a small case on me early, volt has the whole case robz the now confirmed town made against him. This is an easy lynch, volts partner is going to be the hard one to find.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1631 on: January 05, 2014, 08:04:57 pm »

teproc is right and this solidifies my read on volt, he has to be scum or scum would have already hammered.

No, it means you're scum. I noticed this quite awhile ago, and it's why I freaked out when I was at L-1 (or so I thought). I agree, today should be me vs. mcmc, and you really really really should lynch mcmc.

you vs. mcmc, the winner is town, the loser is scum?  What about the situation where both of you are scum?  Making this a focused me vs you (town vs scum) is interesting.

teproc is right and this solidifies my read on volt, he has to be scum or scum would have already hammered.

No, it means you're scum. I noticed this quite awhile ago, and it's why I freaked out when I was at L-1 (or so I thought). I agree, today should be me vs. mcmc, and you really really really should lynch mcmc.

Volt or me is who we need to lynch the case against me is I an lurky and ash made a small case on me early, volt has the whole case robz the now confirmed town made against him. This is an easy lynch, volts partner is going to be the hard one to find.

Then mcmc comes and sheeps the idea of a me vs. you case and that the second scum is hidden out there.

Voltaire and mcmc are my top two scum reads right now.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1632 on: January 06, 2014, 11:45:11 am »

teproc is right and this solidifies my read on volt, he has to be scum or scum would have already hammered.

No, it means you're scum. I noticed this quite awhile ago, and it's why I freaked out when I was at L-1 (or so I thought). I agree, today should be me vs. mcmc, and you really really really should lynch mcmc.

you vs. mcmc, the winner is town, the loser is scum?  What about the situation where both of you are scum?  Making this a focused me vs you (town vs scum) is interesting.

There is no situation where both of us are scum. I know you can't know that, but I can know that. It's why I am now certain mcmc is scum - I should have been quickhammered, I agree with whoever pointed it out.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1633 on: January 06, 2014, 11:49:08 am »

Hmm. A scum v scum scenario for Voltaire vs mcmc is interesting. Maybe they figured Voltaire would be an automatic lynch after Robz flipped town and decided to distance themselves as much as they can, which is why they're both saying it can't be scum v scum ?

Although they would say that as town anyway because, well, they would know they're town. In any case, scum v scum is certainlya possibility here, and one that we shouldn't forget on the next day.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1634 on: January 06, 2014, 11:51:02 am »

I think our lynch is basically between Voltaire and mcmc today.  It is critical that we lynch correctly. 

manda, I do not want you to place your vote before we see some sort of overview of both mcmc and voltaire from you.  Please get that done NLT Tuesday, Jan 7 at 6PM forum time (24 hours before the deadline)

Teproc, it would be nice for you to do the same thing, but I won't be demanding of you since you have been involved in the game
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1635 on: January 06, 2014, 11:51:45 am »

Hmm. A scum v scum scenario for Voltaire vs mcmc is interesting. Maybe they figured Voltaire would be an automatic lynch after Robz flipped town and decided to distance themselves as much as they can, which is why they're both saying it can't be scum v scum ?

Why in the world is everyone expecting me or mcmc to go "oh gee, I guess this could be scum v. scum!" This makes none of the sense.

It looks like no-one wants to no-lynch today, fine. Then we need to lynch mcmc so we don't lose. I think mcmc is conf. scum now due to the vote count situation. That's what I've got.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1636 on: January 06, 2014, 11:55:17 am »

I can do that. I wanted to do an ash reread for interactions today but the forum was down so I couldn't before just now.

PPE (Voltaire) : Yeah, I acknowledged that in this post. I understand that no matter what, you gys aren't going to see it as a possibility, but you'll understand that we can't discount it either. Not that it matters all that much today anyway.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1637 on: January 06, 2014, 12:59:15 pm »

ash interactions

With Voltaire :
#143 : Joke about a plan involving lynching Voltaire.
#270 : Robz « rage votes » Voltaire, ash calls it fake. Chainsaw defense ?
#373 : Says Voltaire's POE post feels « different ».
#658 : Calls Voltaire a contributor after a post count
#669 : Chooses Voltaire as a random example in a post about Morgrim.
#730 : Puts Voltaire in « won't lynch » in a popsquiz.
#808 : Agrees with Voltaire on the Morgrim lynch.
#861 : Wants to look off-wagon (Voltaire was on).

With mcmc :
#268 : Saying that he's confused being manda and mcmc
#351 : Says mcmc is scum because of his activity
#658 : Calls mcmc an acti-lurker
#685 : Clarifies that acti-lurking isn't necessarily scummy.
#709 : Agrees with mcmc about Morgrim's claim
#730 : Puts mcmc in « would lynch »
#808 : Agrees with mcmc on what to do with 2.7's night action (no one should try to convince him of anything).
#861 : Wants to look off-wagon (mcmc was on)
#1113 : Post count, says mcmc is in the actilurker zone.

With manda :
#268 : Saying that he's confused being manda and mcmc
#269 : Finds manda scummy, asks if she has a day 1 pass
#278 : Explains why manda is scummy : hedging
#658 : calls manda a lurker
#730 : Puts manda in « would lynch »
#740 : 2.7 says everyone's forgetting manda, ash responds it might be her nefarious plan.
#861 : Wants to look off-wagon, which includes manda.
#866 : After post count, says manda needs to step up.
#886 : Comments on a similar post made by Jimmmm asking manda to post, calling it coaching (in other words, but that's the idea).
#889 : Finds Jimmmm's vote on manda scummy because it's a safe vote. Sees it (as well as the above) as a potential indicator that they are partners.
#1113 : Post count, says manda needs to post more

I included manda in this because I actually think manda comes out looking the scummiest in this. The coaching doesn't really matter if scum has daychat (which seems very likely). He calls her scummy for hedging on day 1, but makes sure she has a day 1 pass at the same time. Safest case on your partner ever. The fact that he comes after Jimmmm on day 2 for doing the exact same thing (pretty much) makes me think that ash got all giddy when he saw town do the exact same thing he did as scum.

Can we just lynch manda ? The whole Voltaire vs mcmc reminds me of the yuma vs Voltaire in GoT, with scum lurking in the background.

His interactions with Voltaire are very scarce, which I think looks good for Voltaire. I would think ash, knowing that he's on a streak of being lynched early as scum, would be very careful about his interactions, so he would make sure to have content about them.

He barely has more about mcmc though, the only thing particularly notable is that he was the first to find him scummy for increased activity on day 1.

I'll look at interactions the other way around, but from this, I get manda >> mcmc=Voltaire
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1638 on: January 06, 2014, 02:26:58 pm »

Interactions with ash :

manda :
#897 : During the Jimmmm/ash fight early day 2. I linked it because I don't even get what she was saying there, but it might be relevant.
#1049 : When ash notices that mcmc forgot the "scum/scum" option, she calls it a "really good and interesting point", but says it's not enough for a vote (on mcmc).
#1247 : Late day 2, after everyone claimed, says she was convinced ash fakeclaimed while at first but isn't sure anymore.

That's it. #1247 is the most relevant : she still wasn't sure after ash got counterclaimed by Walrus ? Seems crazy, but maybe she thought she might actually get Jimmmmm lynched first ?

mcmc :
#335: Votes for ash (2), sheeping Voltaire's vote about ash being in the background. Finds the idea that ash's plan was just asking everyone about what PRs they would have taken unlikely.
#380 : Unvotes (1), saying he responded townie and believes ash is "less domineering" on purpose, but that doesn't indicate his alignment.
#578 : Disagrees with ash that 2.7's claim is a bad one to make as scum.
#681: After ash calls him an actilurker, says actilurking isn't the same thing as being in the middle of the post count, and implies that he (and myself, who was also included in the actilurkers) has been contributing.
#693: Ash responds to #681 by saying actilurking isn't necessarily scummy, mcmc finds that "reasonable".
#756 : popsquiz : ash is in the "won't lynch" category.
#957 : About the whole ash/Walrus thing early day 2 : finds Walrus scummy and ash null.
#959 : Scum read on ash for wagon analysis which is pointless because of WIFOM.
#978 : Says it's equally possible that the Jimmm/ash fight is town/town, scum/town or town/scum. This is the post where he omits the scum/scum possibility.
#1036 : Says scum/scum would not make sense, but is possible, just doubtful.

The early vote on ash is very safe, as it is justified by meta reasons (which is why I hate those). He also unvotes very quickly after ash responds. That's pretty scummy to me : it makes sure that the meta argument (ash is less active/doesn't have a plan) is being adressed and artificially makes ash look townie when mcmc says his response was townie. It also allows mcmc to safely have ash in the "won't lynch" category at the end of day 1.

The scum/scum omission is interesting here. That seems like a mistake a scumpartner could very easily do : they know for a fact that the argument is scum vs town, but obviously don't want to forget the town/town possibility, because going after Jimmmm would look like a chainsaw defense. The scum/scum possibility however, is completely forgotten because it doesn't really give ash's partner anything. It is a possibility that only paranoid town (ie any town) thinks about. His response to that is pretty much a simple hand-wave, admitting that it's possible but unlikely.

Voltaire :
#284 : Disagrees with ash finding manda scummy, saying that hedging isn't really scummy.
#334 : Votes ashersky (1) : in the background, hasn't responded to faust's plan.
#348/350 : Says ash is purposefully less active here, but it isn't indicative of his alignment.
#354 : Seems to respond well to ash's response, but doesn't remove his vote.
#576 : Says ash is "behaving like his scuper-scummy self that always turns out to be town", but still likes hiv vote on him.
#592 : reiterates that ash is scummy.
#624 : Doesn't see ash's case on Walrus at all.
#755 : popsquiz: ash in his "would lynch"
#811/815 : Wonders if ash is rolefishing with the discussion about Robz not screaming that vigs shouldn't shoot night 1.
#926 : Early day 2, says ash is hardcore tunneling on Jimmmm
#947 : Insane POE where ash (along with four others) is crossed off his lynch pool.
#949 : Says ash is behaving like town!ash
#1163 : After Jimmmm claimed, but before Walrus did, wants to lynch Jimmmm first because Roleblocker is more valuable than Goon Cop
#1166 : Says the Jimmm/ash situation could be a scum/scum gambit because ash is ash.
#1182 : After Walrus counterclaims, unsure if it means ash is scum.
#1185 : Votes ashersky, realizing that a Jimmmm/Walrus scumteam would be outed immediately by ash's flip.

His vote on ash day 1 is very safe (see above), but he doesn't unvote when he has the opporutnity to unlike mcmc. #354 is where I would expect scum!Voltaire to unvote his partner for reasons explained above.
What looks bad here is his attitude after the Jimmmmm claimed, first wanting to lynch Jimmmmm then unsure if Walrus's counterclaim means we should lynch ash. Apparently, everyone thought his argument for lynching Jimmmm was awesome though ?

So I guess it looks bad for all of them, but mostly for mcmc I think. I'll reread mcmc next (probably not tonight) but if I had to choose between him and Voltaire right now, I'd vote for him.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1639 on: January 07, 2014, 08:52:25 am »

can we get a prod on manda
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1640 on: January 07, 2014, 09:01:42 am »

I think that we are dealing with an mcmc/voltaire scum team, and am comfortable with lynching either one of them.

My preference is Voltaire, but I will also lynch mcmc
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1641 on: January 07, 2014, 09:51:48 am »

I think that we are dealing with an mcmc/voltaire scum team, and am comfortable with lynching either one of them.

My preference is Voltaire, but I will also lynch mcmc

Interestingly wrong theory. I mean why do you think I am scum running a gambit rather than town pushing my top scum read.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1642 on: January 07, 2014, 10:39:37 am »

can we get a prod on manda

Manda has been prodded
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1643 on: January 07, 2014, 05:30:05 pm »

just over 24 hours remaining.

Voltaire and mcmc, you have talked a lot about each other being scum, but who do you think the second scum is?  Manda or Teproc?

In fact, could everyone state who they think the scum team is?

I think it is mcmc and voltaire
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1644 on: January 07, 2014, 05:40:30 pm »

I think the scum team is mcmc and manda.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1645 on: January 07, 2014, 05:41:00 pm »

Most likely, of course.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1646 on: January 07, 2014, 06:09:41 pm »

I am tending to agree with you right now Volt. I just did a full reread of you, and while of course there are potential suspicions, I think you appear relatively towny.

I still have this nagging bad feeling about manda. But the no-hammer situation is also too interesting to ignore.

I think at this point I would vote for mcmc or manda. I would love to hear from manda before I put down a vote.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1647 on: January 07, 2014, 06:15:04 pm »

After rereading mcmc, I think he's more likely to be scum than Voltaire. I would still rather lynch manda but if it's between those two I think mcmc is the right choice. His vote/unvote on ash day 1 is scummy (see above), as well as the scum/scum ommission in the Jimmmmm/ash fight. There's also this post where it seems like he's asking town how to behave, which seems a lot more beneficial as scum than as town.

His attitude day 3 and 4 is also strange to me : he's pushing a Robz/Voltaire scumteam really hard and eventualy hammers Robz, and then immediately switches to Voltaire with the same certainty, now saying he agrees with Robz's reads ? That's... not how town approaches things in mylo. As the game progresses, town gets more and more paranoid and starts doubting everything it believes. Instead, mcmc seems to get more and more certain as things get towards the end game.

manda's absence is annoying (especially because I saw her reading the topic earlier today... you've got to post manda !), but if the choice is Voltaire or mcmc (and one of them is definitely scum through PoE alone), I believe mcmc is the right choice.

vote: mcmcsalot

PPE : Didn't read Walrus's post.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1648 on: January 07, 2014, 06:19:11 pm »

Right now I have a good feeling about Teproc being town

1) Negative result from Jimmmm
2) Negative result from Walrus
3) Towny posts today

so it is between mcmc, voltaire, and manda for me.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« Reply #1649 on: January 07, 2014, 06:40:44 pm »

Manda could very well be scum, but I am just oh so much more certain about mcmc that I strongly encourage everyone to vote there. I mean, there's lots, but just consider the vote count. Just consider it!

I'll be around tomorrow to switch to manda if that's the way we end up going, but I honestly give it very low odds manda even shows up.
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