Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[ashersky]

1)  It reduces the lynch pool.  Each town player is looking for 4/12 bad guys today.  Already nice odds.  Each town player that isn't the doctor gets to instead look at 4/11 players, which is better.  The doctor gains nothing and is still looking at 4/12, but the overall chances have gone up.
2)  If we have multiple doctor claims, we catch scum.
3)  There is WIFOM for the night kill, no matter what scum!liopoil says.  It is impossible for either team to know if the other will shoot the doc.  They cancel each others' kills.  I'd give good odds that the Doctor lives, and possibly saves someone else.
4)  The doctor is a weak PR here.  Doctors are weak anyway, and no difference here.  Let's go worst case: VT lynch today.  We go into N1 with 2 kills, each of which have 10 possible kill targets.  The doctor needs to choose 1/11 to protect.  He has two chances to protect, though.  I don't know how to include the odd possibility of both scum teams and doctor all targeting the same person and resulting in a death.  No matter what, the doctor can only stop one kill anyway.

1) no it doesn't. We can't lynch the doctor even if he doesn't claim. Worst that happens is that someone mistakenly suspects the doctor.
2) sure, but scum get to choose if they claim or not. If claiming is a bad choice for them, they won't do it.
3) oh sure, there's a bit of a guessing game (WIFOM is the wrong term here I think). And yes, good odds the doctor lives. However, they are worse odd than if he doesn't claim. There is absolutely no way that claiming increases the chance that the doctor lives.
4) doctor is weak, yes. I'd totally be willing to increase the chance that the doctor dies slightly if there was something for town to gain by doing that.

...So I think we agree that the doctor claiming only slightly increases the chance that a weak PR dies. Where we disagree is if town has something to gain by the doctor claiming. I don't think they do.

I will continue to say this: I believe having an IC is a huge boon to town.  Knowing 100% that someone else is town with you is tremendous.  It's like Best Friends, or a Mason you can't talk to.  It changes the scope of the game for you.  Yuma should agree with me here, as he convinced me of the power of known-Town while M31 was going on.  Troy/Abed was a game-changer.

A weak PR (doctor) gets turned into a much stronger one (IC Doctor).

Imagine it this way, what if there was an Innocent Doctor role in the game?  Huge.

[ashersky]

Also, as for counterclaiming, there's maybe a 1 in a 100 chance it happens with one scum team.  I think maybe 1 in 80 chance with two?

I can think of one f.ds player ballsy enough to do it on D1.

[Voltgloss]

A weak PR (doctor) gets turned into a much stronger one (IC Doctor).

Imagine it this way, what if there was an Innocent Doctor role in the game?  Huge.

Which is better:  an Innocent Doctor who is modconfirmed at the start of the game, or an Innocent Doctor who can be modconfirmed at the time of his choosing?

[ashersky]

A weak PR (doctor) gets turned into a much stronger one (IC Doctor).

Imagine it this way, what if there was an Innocent Doctor role in the game?  Huge.

Which is better:  an Innocent Doctor who is modconfirmed at the start of the game, or an Innocent Doctor who can be modconfirmed at the time of his choosing?

What's more likely?  Scum fakeclaiming Doctor at L-1 to force the real doctor to claim before dying, or scum fakeclaiming if we're moving foward with a plan like mine?

[Voltgloss]

A weak PR (doctor) gets turned into a much stronger one (IC Doctor).

Imagine it this way, what if there was an Innocent Doctor role in the game?  Huge.

Which is better:  an Innocent Doctor who is modconfirmed at the start of the game, or an Innocent Doctor who can be modconfirmed at the time of his choosing?

What's more likely?  Scum fakeclaiming Doctor at L-1 to force the real doctor to claim before dying, or scum fakeclaiming if we're moving foward with a plan like mine?

The first.  But so what?  If scum fakeclaims and forces the real Doctor to claim, then the Doctor is outed and we find one scum.  If the Doctor claims now with no scum fakeclaim, then the Doctor is outed and we find zero scum.

[ashersky]

I think a point many of you are missing (and miss in every game) is that the "well, if we wait until we get the doctor to L-1 and then he claims we're so much better off" is false.

We are in a game where everyone, EVERYONE, has incentive to scum hunt.  Mislynches in this game will not necessarily be scum-driven, and definitely less scum-driven than a game with only one scum team.  So spending most of D1 trying to end up getting the Doctor to L-1 so that we have an L-1 wagon on confirmed town to study does very little good for the town.

What it does do it waste all our time so we scramble to lynch at the end of the day.  What it does to is waste all of town's time letting us build a scum read on town.

There's no reason to believe a wagon built on the doctor, forced up to L-1, will be useful.  And wasting our time trying to do that is silly.

I have said this before, and I will say it again: the best way to catch scum early is to reduce your lynch pool.  Take out the towniest members from your consideration and focus on the rest.  Sure, you could remove scum.  But unless you are terrible or unlucky, you won't rule out all of them.  Innocent Children and their cousin roles are the best way to do that.

[ashersky]

So, in sum:

I absolutely believe the Doctor claiming now is significantly better for town than trying to run him up to L-1 to get a claim that way.  You'll never convince me otherwise.

[Archetype]

If Doctor claims today, they have very little information to go off of to lead Town. Tommorow they will have the D1 lynch, and the NK(s) from N1. Plus, they run the risk of being nightkilled N1 if they claim right now.

[Voltgloss]

I absolutely believe the Doctor claiming now is significantly better for town than trying to run him up to L-1 to get a claim that way.

I agree with this statement.  But it's a false dichotomy.  We aren't "trying to run" the Doctor up to L-1.  We're trying to lynch scum. 

There are three possible game states going forward:

A)  The Doctor claims because he is forced by L-1 pressure
B)  The Doctor claims without being forced
C)  The Doctor does not claim

I understand A may be preferable to B in certain circumstances.  Where I am not convinced is that A being better than B is so much better that it's worth entirely giving up the possibility we are in game state C.

[sudgy]

I am usually against these ideas, but I think it has merit this time.

1. It helps scum shoot each other.  We want that.  I think this is the best part.
2. The doc still won't die, and we have an IC, which is good.


Now, Vote: 2.71828..... because he inflated his post count at the beginning.  He even admitted it.

[ashersky]

I absolutely believe the Doctor claiming now is significantly better for town than trying to run him up to L-1 to get a claim that way.

I agree with this statement.  But it's a false dichotomy.  We aren't "trying to run" the Doctor up to L-1.  We're trying to lynch scum. 

There are three possible game states going forward:

A)  The Doctor claims because he is forced by L-1 pressure
B)  The Doctor claims without being forced
C)  The Doctor does not claim

I understand A may be preferable to B in certain circumstances.  Where I am not convinced is that A being better than B is so much better that it's worth entirely giving up the possibility we are in game state C.

I think we disagree on A/B/C.

I think we are currently already in C, and the only available options to take are A and B.  We're forced into C UNTIL A or B happen.  C isn't a choice, it's the status quo.

We can do either A or B, but not both.

[ashersky]

I am usually against these ideas, but I think it has merit this time.

1. It helps scum shoot each other.  We want that.  I think this is the best part.
2. The doc still won't die, and we have an IC, which is good.


Now, Vote: 2.71828..... because he inflated his post count at the beginning.  He even admitted it.

Both very great points.

[Robz888]

I fully agree with ash, and think the the Doctor should claim immediately. I am totally convinced that IC is a stronger PR than Doctor anyway, and here the revelation of our IC/Doctor person will create headaches for sucm. I think they are LESS likely to kill the claimed Doctor than they are to randomly shoot an unclaimed Doctor.

[ashersky]

To expound further:

Imagine this set up was:

2 Fire Goons
2 Ice Goons
1 Innocent Child
8 VTs

How do you feel about the game then?  The chances of blocked kills are reduced, but the chances of a successful scum lynch are improved.  As town, I choose the IC setup over the Doc every time; as scum, I choose to play against the Doc.

With a claim, we get the best of both worlds.

[Robz888]

Yup, and everyone opposed to the plan is scum. Out yourselves, scum.

[Gveoniz]

Vote: 2.71828.....  for being irrational, it is really unhelpful to the town.

Just returned home, it seems that a lots happened during my local day, but on the matter of doctor claiming, it seems good to to me, but I need some more time to think about it, if my opinion in this theory talk is valuable.

btw, Vote: faust

[faust]

Hi everyone! Looks like I'm late to the party again...

I think the doctor claiming plan may be a good idea. Will a scum team target the doctor over someone else? I don't think so, not even if they were sure that he would die. They're basically giving their opposing team a chance to gain an advantage over them (if scum A targets the doctor, they kill a known townie while scum B has the chance to hit one of them).

Also, Gveoniz is voting me?! OMGUS vote: Gveoniz!

[Eevee]

Oh, 8 freaking VTs?  Yeesh.

Doctor can claim, force both teams to decide who shoots him, either both or neither.  Lives forever?

I thought about this and I think it has potential. Risky potential, but potential.

What did you do in a blitz game a while ago where you had 3 people claim the same PR. Would something like that work? I can't remember, I think UoS was there...

no, the 3 people claim thing is bad. You can't WIFOM scum. Best case they ignore it and nothing happens. Worst case they get a clue to who the doctor is.

having the doc claim is also bad. It doesn't accomplish anything. Yes, the doctor becomes IC. The point of ICs is that we can't mislynch them. Well, we can't lynch the doctor anyway because if we try to they will claim. Yes, ICs help lead town too, but this is a minimal advantage.

is Gveoniz new too? I know he's been around this forum, but has he played mafia before?

Agree on both counts.

[Voltgloss]

I absolutely believe the Doctor claiming now is significantly better for town than trying to run him up to L-1 to get a claim that way.

I agree with this statement.  But it's a false dichotomy.  We aren't "trying to run" the Doctor up to L-1.  We're trying to lynch scum. 

There are three possible game states going forward:

A)  The Doctor claims because he is forced by L-1 pressure
B)  The Doctor claims without being forced
C)  The Doctor does not claim

I understand A may be preferable to B in certain circumstances.  Where I am not convinced is that A being better than B is so much better that it's worth entirely giving up the possibility we are in game state C.

I think we disagree on A/B/C.

I think we are currently already in C, and the only available options to take are A and B.  We're forced into C UNTIL A or B happen.  C isn't a choice, it's the status quo.

We can do either A or B, but not both.

I agree with you here, ash.  Where I am not convinced is your assertion that game state B > game state C, at this time.  Isn't there value to maintaining game state C until the late game (if we can), so that the Doctor has a better chance of blocking a scum kill?

Remember, everyone, that if the Doctor claims and becomes IC, he is an IC who is guaranteed to die once one scumteam is dead.  This isn't a Role Madness game where there are other unknown power roles out there who can WIFOM scum at night about their kill.  Yes, I agree that the opposing scumteams create such a WIFOM and will probably mean a Doctor who claims now won't be nightkilled - for now.  But as soon as one scumteam is dead, that WIFOM disappears and nothing can bring it back.  And the Doctor is then dead... at just the time (lategame) when his Doctor protection would be most helpful.

[Voltgloss]

I think they are LESS likely to kill the claimed Doctor than they are to randomly shoot an unclaimed Doctor.

When there are two scumteams alive, yes, I agree.  But as soon as one scumteam is dead, the Doctor is next.

[faust]

Yup, and everyone opposed to the plan is scum. Out yourselves, scum.

Are they though? The weird thing about this plan is that noone really has strong incentive to oppose it. It helps town by reducing the lynch pool, it helps scum by reducing their NK pool.

... this has me worried a little. I think an outed doctor will die as soon as one scum team has the upper hand. If it's two scum A/one scum B/town, scum B won't shoot the doctor, they need to hit scum A. Scum A can safely shoot the doctor, and that's good for them, because they don't want a reduced lynch pool at this point (and they don't have much incentive to shoot scum B because that would mean one NK less and thus a longer game).

I'm not so sure anymore that this doctor claim is really a good idea.

[Eevee]

I think they are LESS likely to kill the claimed Doctor than they are to randomly shoot an unclaimed Doctor.

When there are two scumteams alive, yes, I agree.  But as soon as one scumteam is dead, the Doctor is next.

Okay, this is actually a point that makes me want to support the plan. All that talk about "wifom" isn't, because wifom doesn't exist. It's like you are serving scum two cups, one with normal wine and one with poisoned... but they can just choose to ignore you and walk away if they want to.

Seems to me that the question here is, how strong is the doc, and would scum want to shoot him over a random player. The scum team wasting their shot on the doctor is purposefully not gunning for the other team, giving them an advantage. Neither scum wants that, so the doctor could live longer this way. It sort of us identifying weaker targets for them.

I'm fine with it, in the end. Just for different reasons than the ones ashersky is proposing.

[Eevee]

The doctor claiming would be us purposefully giving scum information, because we feel the correct move for them would be to help town to hurt the other scum team with it.

[2.71828.....]

So this is what I am getting

1.  Claiming doctor is helpful to the town right now

I think the doctor claiming plan may be a good idea. Will a scum team target the doctor over someone else? I don't think so, not even if they were sure that he would die. They're basically giving their opposing team a chance to gain an advantage over them (if scum A targets the doctor, they kill a known townie while scum B has the chance to hit one of them).

2.  Claiming doctor hurts the town later.

Remember, everyone, that if the Doctor claims and becomes IC, he is an IC who is guaranteed to die once one scumteam is dead.  This isn't a Role Madness game where there are other unknown power roles out there who can WIFOM scum at night about their kill.  Yes, I agree that the opposing scumteams create such a WIFOM and will probably mean a Doctor who claims now won't be nightkilled - for now.  But as soon as one scumteam is dead, that WIFOM disappears and nothing can bring it back.  And the Doctor is then dead... at just the time (lategame) when his Doctor protection would be most helpful.

In my opinion, I like the idea of having the doctor around late.  Claiming now will probably guarantee survival into D2, but there is a decent chance that you survive to D2 without the claim. 

The doctor claiming would be us purposefully giving scum information, because we feel the correct move for them would be to help town to hurt the other scum team with it.

This may just be because I am new to the game, but I am uncomfortable giving free information to the mafia.

[Eevee]

This two scum team situation is so weird.. I absolutely agree with not giving scum free information, hence being firmly against it at first. Then I realized that we have a common enemy with both scum teams (the other scum team). It all comes back to which side is the favorite here. Take one townie out pregame, town would be in such a rough spot, scum would surely prioritize killing each other instead of going after us. Here, I'm not sure.

One thing is that if the doctor manages to live until the end unclaimed, it's a real power role. Any kind of claiming makes that small chance even smaller.