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[faust]

You all seem to keep forgetting that we share a common enemy with each scum team - the other scum team! We're all scumhunting here, so if I give out directions for all scumhunters ("do not lynch"), I might as well give directions to a subgroup of scum hunters ("do not kill"). Are they gonna listen to me? Probably no. But is that a reason not to write it?

More importantly, the scum narrative for me seems to be "he wanted to remind himself not to kill the doctor". Now look back at what I said regarding the doctor claiming. It should be abundantly clear from this that as scum, I would be really happy to kill the doctor as soon as one of the other scum is dead, which could already be tonight. So even if you think that I would slip like that (and I have yet to see a case where someone was correctly caught after a "scumslip"), it doesn't make sense because that's not even what my opinion as scum would be.

[faust]

Other notes:

Regarding ABCD: For everyone that is not me, sudgy or Voltaire, generic probabilities split like this:

B - 50.9 %
A - 38.2 %
D - 7.3 %
C - 3.6 %

Everyone who didn't order them like this should have a good reason to, especially people who put D above A (I'm looking at Gveoniz and ashersky here).

Lynch pool:
Want to lynch: sudgy, Robz
Would lynch: Eevee, liopoil, Voltgloss, Gveoniz
Not so interested in lynching: ashersky, yuma, Archetype, NHS
Won't lynch: Voltaire, e

Overall: I actually don't think it is of great importance for us to lynch scum today (in fact, we might be better off lynching town). As announced in the V/LA thread, I won't be around until Sunday, so I'd appreciate it if you gave me a chance to comment on stuff that happened over the weekend before you lynch me.

[faust]

Seeing that the sudgy wagon has apparently died, I might as well switch to vote: Robz. There something suspicious about him that I can't yet explain, and now he jumps my wagon - maybe he wants this "secret case" to go down with me before it gets public.

[Gveoniz]

Replying to both at once s they are on the same thing.

So I think It would be B >  D > A > C. But I am not sure right now.

Really, D > A? You know the statistical probability of D (from your perspective, assuming you're town) is 7.2%, and that of A 38.2%? You'd need to be pretty darn confident in your reads to think that D is more likely than A.

So I think It would be B >  D > A > C. But I am not sure right now.

This blows my mind. I can see B being before A. But no way should D be before A. No way unless Gveoniz knows something that we don't.

vote: Gveo. I am generally with Robz that I don't like lynching newer players, but this really makes me wonder (and I should mention that Gveo has played one game already, so isn't technically a true newbie)

I have to admit that I have made a mistake and I didn't put much though in posting the  "ABCD" since I would like to get as many things out as possible before I am gone for another day.

I am not confident on my read, as I mentioned in the thread. I just thought that both are slightly-moderately scummy, and with influence from a statement that "most exchange would have scum involve in it", chose D over A.

(Just so you know, I am 12 hours ahead of forum time. (GMT +8 time zone) when you are most active I am either sleeping or working.)

[ashersky]

Other notes:

Regarding ABCD: For everyone that is not me, sudgy or Voltaire, generic probabilities split like this:

B - 50.9 %
A - 38.2 %
D - 7.3 %
C - 3.6 %

Everyone who didn't order them like this should have a good reason to, especially people who put D above A (I'm looking at Gveoniz and ashersky here).

Lynch pool:
Want to lynch: sudgy, Robz
Would lynch: Eevee, liopoil, Voltgloss, Gveoniz
Not so interested in lynching: ashersky, yuma, Archetype, NHS
Won't lynch: Voltaire, e

Overall: I actually don't think it is of great importance for us to lynch scum today (in fact, we might be better off lynching town). As announced in the V/LA thread, I won't be around until Sunday, so I'd appreciate it if you gave me a chance to comment on stuff that happened over the weekend before you lynch me.

I am confident enough that at least one of you two is scum that I believe dueling scum is more likely than both town.  He wasn't asking us to rank probability, he asked our opinion, based on our reads.

You and Yuma continue to ties yourselves together.

[2.71828.....]

Voltaire - doc. Do not lynch, do not kill.

In all honesty when I saw this I thought it was a language mistake. Faust is from Germany yes? His grammar is generally pretty good (as is almost all of our non-native-English speaking players) but sometimes makes mistakes. I thought this was one of them which basically meant to be said "isn't going to be killed" which is probably true as it is the whole premise for why we had the doc claim.

That seems really weak.  I don't have the history with faust to comment on his English speaking abilities, but  the difference in "Do not kill" and "isn't going to be killed" is big enough that I seriously doubt a language mistake, more just a poor word choice. (scumslip?)  Yuma covering in this way is a little suspect, as Robz pointed out.

@2.7: I think it's more likely that yuma is scum, actually. In a two man scumteam I'd fight hard for my partner if he scumslipped.

Ok, sure you would want to protect your partner.  But this early?  I know its Friday and not much will get done over the weekend so right now may be the best time for a defence, but if my partner was the target of an early wagon, I would prefer to keep my distance and hope it dissipates as the wagon on sudgy did. 

In all honesty when I saw this I thought it was a language mistake. Faust is from Germany yes? His grammar is generally pretty good (as is almost all of our non-native-English speaking players) but sometimes makes mistakes. I thought this was one of them which basically meant to be said "isn't going to be killed" which is probably true as it is the whole premise for why we had the doc claim.

Sadly, this is a great point.  Or it's yuma defending his scumbuddy. Hm.

So are you willing to jump on one of those wagons and give more reasons that I asked for, or are you hoping the wagon dissipates?  Maybe that is my inexperience talking.
Now about my inexperience:

Very concerned by 2.7's trying to get me lynched. Not neccerssarily because it's me he's trying to start a wagon on (but that does play a big part) but more of him being a newbie and doing something like this. What he said awhile ago about "Voting alongside the Doctor" certainly rubbed me the wrong way.

Is that trying to discredit what I am saying simply because I am new?  Voltaire's vote for Archetype looked completely RVS to my newbie eyes, and maybe it is too late in the day to be making a joke, but that was primarily what that was.  Now as Voltaire posted, he would be in favor of lynching a lurker, so he may in fact be in favor of lynching Archetype, but I would need further confirmation before I take his vote as anything but a joke.

[2.71828.....]

Want to lynch (first): Archetype
Also want to lynch: Faust, Yuma, Sudgy
Wouldn't mind lynching: liopoil
I'll wait until D2 to consider lynching: Robz, Eevee, Voltgloss, Gveoniz, Ashersky, NHS's replacement
Won't lynch: Voltaire

[Eevee]

2.7 isnt playing like a newbie at all. I don't know if he has played elsewhere before, but he seems to know the ropes quite well.

[Voltaire]

Our lynch deadline is Monday night, isn't it?

Yes. I will be hard V/LA from late this afternoon to sometime Sunday. No lynching anyone while I am gone unless someone claims scum. We'll still have time to put a lynch through early Monday after I'm back.

Robz, it's a bit unclear - did you actually re-read scum!sudgy in LOTR1, or are you just going off memory?

[Robz888]

Our lynch deadline is Monday night, isn't it?

Yes. I will be hard V/LA from late this afternoon to sometime Sunday. No lynching anyone while I am gone unless someone claims scum. We'll still have time to put a lynch through early Monday after I'm back.

Robz, it's a bit unclear - did you actually re-read scum!sudgy in LOTR1, or are you just going off memory?

No I didn't re-read it, jeez. I don't have time for that, and what would be the point? I have like two other, more recent games in which to reference sudgy's behavior.

[Voltaire]

Our lynch deadline is Monday night, isn't it?

Yes. I will be hard V/LA from late this afternoon to sometime Sunday. No lynching anyone while I am gone unless someone claims scum. We'll still have time to put a lynch through early Monday after I'm back.

Robz, it's a bit unclear - did you actually re-read scum!sudgy in LOTR1, or are you just going off memory?

No I didn't re-read it, jeez. I don't have time for that, and what would be the point? I have like two other, more recent games in which to reference sudgy's behavior.

Just checking.

After re-reading actual scum!sudgy in LOTR1, I see absolutely no reason whatsoever to find sudgy scummy for his behavior in this game. His play here is consistent with his town meta, even if it is a smaller version of it. I am not saying that sudgy is town, but I am saying that I am seeing weak, at best, reasons for him to be scum.

[Robz888]

You all seem to keep forgetting that we share a common enemy with each scum team - the other scum team! We're all scumhunting here, so if I give out directions for all scumhunters ("do not lynch"), I might as well give directions to a subgroup of scum hunters ("do not kill"). Are they gonna listen to me? Probably no. But is that a reason not to write it?

More importantly, the scum narrative for me seems to be "he wanted to remind himself not to kill the doctor". Now look back at what I said regarding the doctor claiming. It should be abundantly clear from this that as scum, I would be really happy to kill the doctor as soon as one of the other scum is dead, which could already be tonight. So even if you think that I would slip like that (and I have yet to see a case where someone was correctly caught after a "scumslip"), it doesn't make sense because that's not even what my opinion as scum would be.

This fails as an explanation. If you wrote "do not kill" in the hopes that scum would believe you... well, what if both teams believe you? Then Voltaire would actually live. So it's not even clear that "do not kill" is the sort of advice a townie would give to the scum.

As for the second thing... it's essentially the same situation as long as both scum teams still survive, so I don't see how losing 1 scum from the team opposite you would suddenly invalidate this note. And anyway maybe it was just a note to yourself for Day/Night 1, in which there will certainly be another scum team still alive.

[Voltaire]

The first person I propose taking out of the lynch pool is NHS.

Lynching him is a truly random shot - nothing better than pure 4/11 odds for you town players that he's scum. If he flips town, we will have learned virtually nothing. (this pending his replacement and how they play, if he is replaced - though I doubt his replacement will have enough time to make an impression one way or another)

[Robz888]

Just checking.

After re-reading actual scum!sudgy in LOTR1, I see absolutely no reason whatsoever to find sudgy scummy for his behavior in this game. His play here is consistent with his town meta, even if it is a smaller version of it. I am not saying that sudgy is town, but I am saying that I am seeing weak, at best, reasons for him to be scum.

I don't think sudgy is the most likely scum either at this point, but... come on, his self-proclaimed town meta is like the easiest one to replicate ever. He's just doing a very, very poor imitation here of what he did in LOTR2.

[Gveoniz]

Anyway this is what I think some of the notable people in this game. (in no specific order, I just write what ever comes to my head)
(And when I said notable, of course vets are doing notable good jobs at actively discussing the issues but I can find noting special.)

Voltaire: IC, unless NHS is the doctor.
Sudgy: I still cannot get myself to trust him on the plan, the plan is not unbelievable but I am unable to explains it properly. (I do not know about the meta to judge him by it.)
Faust: The "scum slip" looks like scum slip, but is acceptable if it is a town mistake. Slightly scummy for that. But I am still not able to find him scummy for sudgy's plan. Maybe just a little bit for actually voting instead of questioning.
2.71828: Considering the newness, a notably good player what ever his alignment is, probably town. I am actually ashamed of myself looking at his preformacne.
archetype: Lurking? But he did this too as town last game I played. It is not very helpful, but not a scum read and I am apparently just as lurky as him.
Robz777: seems to tolerate my inactivity, but not much other thing special.
NHS: As every one say, he either need to get back here or get replacement.

---------------------------------------

Want to lynch: /
Wouldn't mind too much: archetype,  Faust, Sudgy
Not sure: everyone else
Reluctant: 2.71827 (NHS if he suddenly come back with a proper reason)
Won't lynch: Voltaire

Side note: I should be able to be on around the dead line as long as "8ish" is talking about the 8 in the morning, forum time.

[Voltaire]

Just checking.

After re-reading actual scum!sudgy in LOTR1, I see absolutely no reason whatsoever to find sudgy scummy for his behavior in this game. His play here is consistent with his town meta, even if it is a smaller version of it. I am not saying that sudgy is town, but I am saying that I am seeing weak, at best, reasons for him to be scum.

I don't think sudgy is the most likely scum either at this point, but... come on, his self-proclaimed town meta is like the easiest one to replicate ever. He's just doing a very, very poor imitation here of what he did in LOTR2.

Then why didn't he try to do that in LOTR1?

[Robz888]

Just checking.

After re-reading actual scum!sudgy in LOTR1, I see absolutely no reason whatsoever to find sudgy scummy for his behavior in this game. His play here is consistent with his town meta, even if it is a smaller version of it. I am not saying that sudgy is town, but I am saying that I am seeing weak, at best, reasons for him to be scum.

I don't think sudgy is the most likely scum either at this point, but... come on, his self-proclaimed town meta is like the easiest one to replicate ever. He's just doing a very, very poor imitation here of what he did in LOTR2.

Then why didn't he try to do that in LOTR1?

It didn't become his meta until 2...

[Robz888]

Look he played a game where he did this really easy strategy of voting for a lot of people as pressure votes, and here he's all like, "Man, that's just what I do as town, see?" And, well, okay, but if you have to insist "I am just doing my meta!" you are self-aware enough to fake it, and this is like a very easy one to fake.

[Robz888]

And also, I don't know why we are falling back to these two old RMM games to explain sudgy, when we have two much more recent sudgy games.

I don't play RMM games anymore, but MY RMM "meta" was to just lurk hardcore through them until later days. What if I just straight up lurked today, and said, "Hey that's just my meta, remember?" Would this hold any water whatsoever? I don't know why it should for sudgy.

[Voltaire]

Overall: I actually don't think it is of great importance for us to lynch scum today (in fact, we might be better off lynching town).

Why do you think we might be better off lynching town today?

[Voltaire]

And also, I don't know why we are falling back to these two old RMM games to explain sudgy, when we have two much more recent sudgy games.

I don't play RMM games anymore, but MY RMM "meta" was to just lurk hardcore through them until later days. What if I just straight up lurked today, and said, "Hey that's just my meta, remember?" Would this hold any water whatsoever? I don't know why it should for sudgy.

It'd be anti-town but not necessarily scummy.

Do we have any more recent scum!sudgy games? That's what's important here.

[Robz888]

And also, I don't know why we are falling back to these two old RMM games to explain sudgy, when we have two much more recent sudgy games.

I don't play RMM games anymore, but MY RMM "meta" was to just lurk hardcore through them until later days. What if I just straight up lurked today, and said, "Hey that's just my meta, remember?" Would this hold any water whatsoever? I don't know why it should for sudgy.

It'd be anti-town but not necessarily scummy.

Do we have any more recent scum!sudgy games? That's what's important here.

Dynasty Warriors.

[Voltaire]

Dynasty Warriors.

Oh, right. Duh. Thanks.

[Voltaire]

OK, I see what you're saying now Robz.

[mail-mi]

Jimmmmm has replaced NHS