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[yed]

How probable is not hitting 5 turn 3 or 4 with Silver-Silver opening.

Anyone calculated this before? I'm too lazy to do it myself.

[Polk5440]

I get 5.05%. (not totally confident, though) -- wait not quite.... missed a 2. Recalculating....

Let's try 8.83%

The only shuffles that give you less than $5 on both turns 3 and 4 are:

CCCCE CCCEE SS
CCCCE CCSEE CS
CCCEE CCCCE SS
CCSEE CCCCE CS

(order doesn't matter in each hand).

2*[5*10*7*6*5*4*3*3*2*1*2*1*2*1+2*5*30*7*6*5*4*3*3*2*2*2*1*1*1]/[12!] = 8.83%

There are two ways of ordering CS, 5 ways of ordering CCCCE, 10 ways of ordering CCCEE, 30 ways of ordering CCSEE, and the last two shuffles are probabilistically the same as the first two, so just double the counting. I think this is it.

[jonts26]

It's 91.2% likely that you hit $5 I believe. Not counting cards which mess up turns 1/2.

[Polk5440]

It's 91.2% likely that you hit $5 I believe. Not counting cards which mess up turns 1/2.

Oh, good. You got my answer, too!

[jonts26]

Here's the old blog post that discusses opening probabilities.

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

[dondon151]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

[GendoIkari]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

[michaeljb]

e^pi - pi = 20

[flies]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

This has been proven false recently: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2013/09/16/chemical-engineering-student-i-used-physics-to-prove-gay-marriage-wrong/

[flies]

also, further off topic, the sum of all natural numbers is -1/12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1_%2B_2_%2B_3_%2B_4_%2B_%C2%B7_%C2%B7_%C2%B7

[Polk5440]

pi^4 + pi^5 = e^6 is a neat mathematical coincidence.

[LastFootnote]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Failure is just success rounded down.

[qmech]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Failure is just success rounded down.

Pi rounded down is 333/106.

[eHalcyon]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

This has been proven false recently: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2013/09/16/chemical-engineering-student-i-used-physics-to-prove-gay-marriage-wrong/

I just... what?

[jaybeez]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

This has been proven false recently: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2013/09/16/chemical-engineering-student-i-used-physics-to-prove-gay-marriage-wrong/

HELLO AND greatings to you SIR

I am Chibuihem Amalaha scientist from University LAGOS, Nigeria.  I have discovered incredible proof that gay marriage is scientifically Wrong.  But the gay anti-scientists in control of Western Governments are prevented me from publish amazing findings!!!

Please, I need your bank account information so I may wire US$1MM dollars to you so I can pay for publication of my papers.  I will then share 10% of Nobel prize money with you!!!!

Sincerely yours truly,
Dr. Amalaha

[Grujah]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Pi is wrong, anyway.

[WanderingWinder]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Pi is wrong, anyway.

Pi is exactly 3

[soulnet]

Pi is exactly 3

"And he made a molten sea, ten cubits from the one rim to the other it was round all about, and a line of thirty cubits did compass it round about."

[GwinnR]

An easy fraction to remember is 1/12, though it's not exactly the right probability, but it's close enough.

Pi is 22/7!

Pi is wrong, anyway.

Pi is exactly 3

No, it is exactly 3.2!