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Author Topic: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia  (Read 95553 times)

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #875 on: October 21, 2013, 12:27:34 pm »

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

We should worry about that tomorrow if we lynch thereol and he turns out to be scum. Not earlier.

this is the best answer and the one i should have given.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #876 on: October 21, 2013, 12:29:15 pm »

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

Are you trying to find out so that you can do the opposite? ;)

Aw shucks. So much for that.  :(

Just trying to get more people on the record about this. I did my "post count" post to point out how little we've gotten this day. I don't think some people have even posted since yuma's case on theorel (I could be wrong).
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #877 on: October 21, 2013, 12:30:13 pm »

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

We should worry about that tomorrow if we lynch thereol and he turns out to be scum. Not earlier.

Bolded the reason I think the question is worth asking. I wanted replies if for some reason we don't lynch him. Talk = pro-town.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #878 on: October 21, 2013, 12:32:04 pm »

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

We should worry about that tomorrow if we lynch thereol and he turns out to be scum. Not earlier.

Bolded the reason I think the question is worth asking. I wanted replies if for some reason we don't lynch him. Talk = pro-town.

Well, if we don't lynch him we're deciding as a group that he's not scum, so hunting for his scumbuddies would be counterproductive.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #879 on: October 21, 2013, 12:34:53 pm »

Re-read mail-mi. He mega-hedges on sudgy.

I am totally okay with a sudgy lynch, but I don't prefer it. The ATE is a bit scummy, but I'mgetting more townie vibes from him than scummy.

Y u no want TA lynch? I want to reread this thread when I have access to a computer. Ash seems a lot more scummy from that L-1 vote on sudgy, BUT, he is a claimed PR that we can rat out later if he is scum.

This is a position town could take. This is also a position scum could take.

yuma, compare/contrast theorel/mail-mi?
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #880 on: October 21, 2013, 12:35:58 pm »

Well, if we don't lynch him we're deciding as a group that he's not scum, so hunting for his scumbuddies would be counterproductive.

Many theoretical situations where this isn't true. At least one real one, like when we decided mail-mi was scum in HP and then lynched chairs.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #881 on: October 21, 2013, 12:40:56 pm »

Have we agreed we want the Vig to claim today, whether 1-shot or full? The last instruction I found was from Galz saying this should happen at the end of the day. I super-agree, but want to make sure I didn't miss something.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #882 on: October 21, 2013, 12:42:20 pm »

Re-read mail-mi. He mega-hedges on sudgy.

I am totally okay with a sudgy lynch, but I don't prefer it. The ATE is a bit scummy, but I'mgetting more townie vibes from him than scummy.

Y u no want TA lynch? I want to reread this thread when I have access to a computer. Ash seems a lot more scummy from that L-1 vote on sudgy, BUT, he is a claimed PR that we can rat out later if he is scum.

This is a position town could take. This is also a position scum could take.

yuma, compare/contrast theorel/mail-mi?

I agree, but I think that is pretty standard mail-mi. I think the difference is how theorel overly focused on sudgy over and over and over again to make sure we all knew where we stood, whereas it appears that mail-mi actually said he would go for a sudgy lynch (at one point he said TA or sudgy, with a preference for TA). I can't blame him for wanting his stronger scum read to get lynched instead of sudgy.

The other difference is that theorel turned sudgy's wagon into a case on nkirbit. mail-mi didn't do that.

So yeah, mail-mi is up there, but nowhere close to theorel in my estimation.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #883 on: October 21, 2013, 12:44:15 pm »

Have we agreed we want the Vig to claim today, whether 1-shot or full? The last instruction I found was from Galz saying this should happen at the end of the day. I super-agree, but want to make sure I didn't miss something.

I don't agree. Mafia has a roleblocker. For certain they have a roleblocker given what we know of the setup. A claiming vig will be neutralized if he claims and we don't lynch the roleblocker thus what is the point of him claiming? The vig should claim if they come up for the lynch, but other than that... no. I don't think the vig should claim.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #884 on: October 21, 2013, 12:49:11 pm »

Have we agreed we want the Vig to claim today, whether 1-shot or full? The last instruction I found was from Galz saying this should happen at the end of the day. I super-agree, but want to make sure I didn't miss something.

I don't agree. Mafia has a roleblocker. For certain they have a roleblocker given what we know of the setup. A claiming vig will be neutralized if he claims and we don't lynch the roleblocker thus what is the point of him claiming? The vig should claim if they come up for the lynch, but other than that... no. I don't think the vig should claim.

Well, three people (including you) have claimed not-Vig. Because you three (yuma, chairs, mail-mi) claimed if they were the Vig they would not shoot last night. If mafia wants to shoot for the vig, they've got pretty good odds (since there are three of them, and they know they're not the vig). Of course, some of the three of you could be scum, lowering those odds. What I am thinking is that the Vig has kind of a high chance of dying tonight because of those D1 actions. If they claim, the Doctor can protect them. Yes, they're role-blocked (maybe?) but we have another PR out there too. And it forces mafia to shoot blind for the doctor.

OK, maybe it's not as good as I thought. But unfortunately, unless town has lied, we have a smaller pool than we should have for the Vig.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #885 on: October 21, 2013, 12:53:04 pm »

Here's another reason the Vig should not claim:

During the day and yesterday, the Vig will be giving away information about their reads.  This is also information about who the Vig is likely to shoot or not shoot, since the Vig wants to aim for scum.

If the vig claims, scum can probably make an at least decent guess at who the Vigilante is going to shoot.  If it's scum, the vig can be roleblocked, and if it's not, they can be left alive to shoot a town player.  Obviously scum can't be sure, but they could make a better than random guess at whether it's okay to let the vig shoot or not.  Which is bad.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #886 on: October 21, 2013, 12:58:04 pm »

Also, looks like I'm wrong. Everyone has posted since yuma's case on theorel.

A case I feel much better about at this point. I think yuma continues to come across as neutral to me, with a clear town narrative and a muddier scum one, due to his answers to my questions/his recent play. So I'm comfortable with the origins of this case, which makes me more comfortable with the sheeping votes (TA, nkirbit) as being more likely to come from town.

Intent to put theorel to L-1, I guess? Or probably ok to put him there, then I guess we just wait for Galz to clarify if he wants Vig to claim, or if he wants them to use their best judgement. I assume there's someone out there willing to hammer (my only hesitation here is the quickness of the day).
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #887 on: October 21, 2013, 01:56:42 pm »

Okay, okay, I'm completely wrong about claiming. I still think it would have worked if PM'ing were allowed.
In other news, the people I think are most likely to be scum are Mail-mi, Theorei, and Chairs, even though I'm not sure about really any of them. Let's just go with the theorei lynch today and see how that works.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #888 on: October 21, 2013, 01:59:21 pm »

Okay, okay, I'm completely wrong about claiming. I still think it would have worked if PM'ing were allowed.
the people I think are most likely to be scum are Mail-mi, Theorei, and Chairs

Can you elaborate on what you find scummy about mail-mi and chairs?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #889 on: October 21, 2013, 02:31:14 pm »

Have we agreed we want the Vig to claim today, whether 1-shot or full? The last instruction I found was from Galz saying this should happen at the end of the day. I super-agree, but want to make sure I didn't miss something.

We'll cross that bridge a bit later. If Scum are 3T, then they already know that the Vig is 1-shot (MDDVTTT the only setup possible now if scum has 3T).

If the Vig is 1-shot however, he does NOT know if scum have 3T or 1T: MDDVT-xx is what he knows, where "xx" could be "TT" or almost any other combination of letters.

If there is another PR out there that is not our Doctor or our Vig, they know for a fact that scum is 1T (As they know the setup is MDDVT-"Y"-x, where "Y" is them).

Now, we've lynched 1, and 2 died last night. So we have 10 alive. We know that there are 3 scum, and I'm an IC. That means scum know that our Vig and our Doctor exist within a pool of 6 players. There are at MOST 4 VT's.

IF our Vigilante is a full Vig, we have at least one other PR out there (MDDVVT-x).

I'm debating having that PR, if he exists, claim at this time. The trouble is, there may be upwards of 2 PR's out there (MDDV-xx-T is possible).

Here's my biggest concern right now:

If the setup is MDDVTTT, our Vigilante is only 1-shot. Scum could conceivably claim additional PR's to make us believe that the setup is MDDVT-xx, and we wouldn't catch them unless the Godfather died (the only distinguishing feature between 3T's and 1T). Essentially, we have no way to trust any claims beyond our Doctor and our Vigilante if he's 1-shot (if he's full this is different since we KNOW that there's only 1T).

And here's the danger with a 1-shot Vig claiming: He becomes an IC, which is great. However...:

Quote from: Galzria
Now, we've lynched 1, and 2 died last night. So we have 10 alive. We know that there are 3 scum, and I'm an IC. That means scum know that our Vig and our Doctor exist within a pool of 6 players. There are at MOST 4 VT's.
(Ha, self quoting from within my own post!)

If the 1-shot Vig claims, scum now know that our Doctor is one of 5 players. Further, if they ARE a 1T scum team, they know that there are at LEAST 2 PR's in that set of 5, and potentially even 3.

However, with ALL that said, I'm seriously contemplating a full claim at this point. Well, maybe I'll have our Doctor claim VT. Not sure yet. Debating. Debating.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #890 on: October 21, 2013, 02:47:58 pm »

So here's the thing:

Let's assume the setup is MDDVTTT (maximum room for scum to play around in regarding fake-claims):

There are 10 alive right now.

I'm and IC.
Our 1-shot Vig, once claimed is an IC.

This leaves:

2 Town vs 8 suspects

Now let's assume scum decide to fake claim (because this is what I'm trying to determine is viable or not). In doing so, they're telling town the setup is MDDVT-xx

Single player claims they could make: CC (Full Cop), DD (Full Extra Doctor), VV (Full Extra Vig).

BB doesn't work, because it ties two players into the claim. MM doesn't work for the same reason. VV DOES work because in order to claim it they have to come public, at which point they can argue that the scum Roleblocker is simply blocking them each night (hence why there's only 1 kill).

Under this premise, one scum has taken themselves into the "safe" zone of being a claimed PR. At this point I would ask our Doctor to step forward.

This makes 4 claimed PR's (assumed IC's) vs 6 in the pool of possible scum (of which 2 actually are, and 4 are VT):

If we lynch one suspect, scum will "roleblock" the scum that's claimed PR, and kill the Doctor.

3 PR's vs 5 suspects. With 3 scum alive, this is mylo. 8 Players, 3 scum. Mislynch and we're down to 6 Players, 3 Scum. We'll have no Night Kill, and Scum can force a no-lynch.

As such, I'm seeing that we absolutely should NOT mass-claim.

IF you are a PR that is NOT the Doctor or Vigilante, you need to stay quiet and stay hidden. The -only- exception to this is if you're a Cop that has a scum result. A town result, even if you're a 1-shot cop, is NOT worth claiming, because it's something that is equally as viable for scum to claim if you DON'T exist - and thus we have no way to trust you.

Our Doctor absolutely must stay hushed up for now, even if scum does have a 1/5 chance of finding you (if our Vig claims. 1/6 if he doesn't). And for our Vigilante, if you're 1-shot, you can claim whenever (or not at all, I'll leave that up to you. Not claiming protects our Doctor a little more, claiming makes you an IC). If you're a FULL Vigilante, well, I still have to consider that. Your claiming means we have another PR out there that could claim that we CAN trust... I'm not yet sure if that's valuable enough to sacrifice your NK to a Roleblock.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #891 on: October 21, 2013, 02:53:46 pm »

Regarding the theorel wagon, I'm feeling the same to it as I did to sudgy's wagon. I don't know if that's a good thing, well sudgy was scum, I'll reread him when I can.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #892 on: October 21, 2013, 03:37:50 pm »

Vote Count 2.1:

Theorel (4): Yuma, nkirbit, Twistedarcher, XerxesPraelor

Not Voting (6): Eevee, Voltaire, Theorel, Mail-mi, Chairs, Galzria

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 ends on October, 30 at 8:00 p.m. Forum time.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2013, 07:25:51 pm by mcmcsalot »
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #893 on: October 21, 2013, 05:33:24 pm »

so Galz: tdlr... PRs don't claim until you till them to, except for 1-shot Vig who should claim if they feel they should? In the meantime let's scum hunt and not get bogged down in theory talk.

This correct up to this point?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #894 on: October 21, 2013, 05:43:55 pm »

so Galz: tdlr... PRs don't claim until you till them to, except for 1-shot Vig who should claim if they feel they should? In the meantime let's scum hunt and not get bogged down in theory talk.

This correct up to this point?

I try harder to scum hunt less as an IC, so that I don't get followed blindly. I would much rather see everybody else scum hunting. I think it's healthier for the town. I'm happy to give my opinions (sometimes) when asked, but it's harder for scum to appease me and forces them to play their own game if they can't just sheep me. It also forces everybody else in the town (who have more information than I do) to think for themselves.

I'm much more interested in keeping things straight and trying to make sure town uses every advantage they can while minimizing any advantage scum can gain by playing an uninformed town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #895 on: October 21, 2013, 05:45:58 pm »

vote: theorel

Seems like an ok thing to do, then. That's L-1.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #896 on: October 21, 2013, 05:46:38 pm »

so Galz: tdlr... PRs don't claim until you till them to, except for 1-shot Vig who should claim if they feel they should? In the meantime let's scum hunt and not get bogged down in theory talk.

This correct up to this point?

I try harder to scum hunt less as an IC, so that I don't get followed blindly. I would much rather see everybody else scum hunting. I think it's healthier for the town. I'm happy to give my opinions (sometimes) when asked, but it's harder for scum to appease me and forces them to play their own game if they can't just sheep me. It also forces everybody else in the town (who have more information than I do) to think for themselves.

I'm much more interested in keeping things straight and trying to make sure town uses every advantage they can while minimizing any advantage scum can gain by playing an uninformed town.

I think you are doing fine yourself. I just know that those sort of theory posts and the subsequent discussion can create crickets or create a how mess of discussion about theory all distracting from scum hunting.

So I am not saying to you to scum hunt. I am sure you are in your own way. But rather that everyone else shouldn't stop talking because the IC talked some necessary theory.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #897 on: October 21, 2013, 05:52:15 pm »

I'm debating dropping a Hammer.

I need to see who's voted here, and where those votes were D1. It's unlikely, I think, that he's town with a full town quick wagon, however this is our last lynch before mylo if we're wrong. So.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #898 on: October 21, 2013, 06:01:27 pm »

I'm debating dropping a Hammer.

I need to see who's voted here, and where those votes were D1. It's unlikely, I think, that he's town with a full town quick wagon, however this is our last lynch before mylo if we're wrong. So.


did a search "vote:" in order of who they voted for. Not as fancy as some of voltgloss's vote thingies, but typing with a babe in arms is tough, so this is what you get.
yuma
voted for TA, sudgy, robz, sudgy, sudgy, Robz, sudgy,


nkirbit
voted for ashersky, Robz, Voltaire, sudgy, voltaire, xerxes, sudgy,


ta
voted for voltaire, sudgy


xerxes
voted for no lynch, voltaire, twisted, sudgy, ashersky


voltaire
voted for xerxes, chairs, chairs, ashersky, sudgy, ashersky, sudgy
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #899 on: October 21, 2013, 11:05:17 pm »

Ok... tomorrow I start my on-week, meaning significantly less posting until next Tuesday. So this is probably my last larger post for a while... basically doing a reread of everyone (except sudgy, but including the sudgy wagon obviously) and trying to figure out where they are at...

1. Eevee  - lurker! 24 posts; was on the sudgy wagon early. I think he was the 4th vote initially. I still don't get the xerxes lynch yesterday. I mentioned that I felt it was odd last reread and still do, but not sure what it means scummywise... Probably a bit scummy since it stands out. Ok, he did explain it after all, I guess I missed it before... due to xerxes bad read on sudgy/ash and him voting TA for not posting. Then a huge break... like ~350 posts in between his posts. If I remember correctly ash brought up an interesting case on eevee toward the end of day. That might be worth looking at again. The basic premise that town!eevee finds people townie and works from there. scum!eevee finds people scummy and works from there? And he was ultimately on the sudgy wagon, although partially self preservation at this point? Yes only mail-mi was voting for him, but there was some pressue... And nothing worth noting day2 except for the absence of stuff to note...

2. Robz888 - quick summary of his reads to take note of at the end: "xerxes expect serious heat tomorrow", "To the extent that I know scum!Eevee at all, I do agree with you here, ash" on ash's notes about eevee; voted voltaire pretty heavily throughout the day (although I personal disagree with how he arrived there). So suspicion of Xerxes, eevee and voltaire

3. Ashersky - quick summary of his reads to take note of at the end: "I think scum!eevee scum hunts, while town!eevee town hunts, if that makes sense.  Town eevee is looking for teammates to NOT lynch, while scum eevee is looking for an acceptable mislynch with backing" case on eevee as mentioned before; "Was just going to ask if anyone was interested.  That reaction to almost losing his scum partner sudgy was classic." not a valid reason anymore, but still was suspicious... "mail-mi is acti-lurking" So suspicion of mail-mi, eevee and voltaire

4. Voltaire - 102 posts: early suspicion of chairs and a xerxes town read (that has been sustained into today btw). moved to a vote on ashersky, went here a number of times throughout the day for a variety of reasons. I do find him voting ashersky to be a mixed bag. Ash was such a bad lynch and voltaire kept going back to it. Because he didn't think it was a bad lynch or because he felt it was a possible mislynch. I am inclined toward the first (or it could be that it was just how scum!voltaire thought town!voltaire would react... this I can see. Like me as mafia knowing that town!yuma would almost always policy vote a selfvote... sometimes trying to recreate your meta can be forced a little too much). Ended up on the sudgy lynch (with some distractions along the way via ash) was the L-2 vote. Received some pressure from Robz (unfair I felt) but stood pretty strong and reacted well to it. End of day his lynch pool was ash (still?!?!), chairs, sudgy with his vote on sudgy. Overreacted to ash's L-1 vote cause he thought it was a hammer.. again real reaction or how voltaire thought town!voltaire should react? And day2, came in ready and willing to L-1 theorel, has done so, maintained a town read on xerxes and hasn't really separated anyone else out yet. Did bring up the idea of mail-mi being like theorel, so scum hunting there...

6. Twistedarcher - 74 posts: was the first on sudgy and basically stayed there all day long. Only moved his vote once I think.... Lots of theory talk... maybe not as much as others, but it sure feels like he is only talking theory for a long, long time... After that strongly says ash is town, says no alarm bells from mail-mi, and not much else... Actually I think if there is scum on the sudgy wagon it is most likely TA. Really only voted for sudgy all day (he had a vote on voltaire very, very early) but after that stuck on sudgy, talked theory and didn't really say much else despite having 74 posts. This is a flag for me. I don't think I prefer him as much as theorel, but I would consider him if theorel's wagon somehow died. Day2 was on theorel as the third vote, kinda reacted funny when I said TA might be bussing to a theoretical.... It would only be incriminating if theorel were 1. lynched 2. flipped scum. If neither of those happen TA doesn't get heat, but he was acting like he was awfully close to the fire....

7. Theorel - 75 posts I think people know how I feel here. I'll reread again and post anything that isn't significantly related to sudgy and is still important... Hard to read past all the theory talk to find the nuggets... Had an intentional removal of a RVS vote that Robz finds scummy (I am still up in the air on that, but worth pointing out I suppose)... as mentioned finds nkirbit scummy for the narrative that theorel created to find someone scummy by... theory, theory, theory.... does his scumscore (after I mention that it was odd that he hadn't done one yet, btw) has higher reads on mail-mi (28), chairs (24), nkirbit (24) yuma (25) sudgy (25) and a really, really low, almost unexplained read on voltaire (18) that is lower than ash's (20)... interesting and votes for chairs... and then backs off on chairs as it has received no help from outside... Day2... not much, hasn't fully responded to the case or wagon on him, very intersted to see what he has to say when he gets back. Nothing I saw here made me change my read on him, a couple of things added to it.

8. Sudgy - not interested in

9. Mail-Mi - 31 posts; already talked a bit about him. Honestly looks like standard mail-mi to me. As TA says, no alarm bells. He did avoid the sudgy lynch, but I felt that was because he had a significantly stronger scum read in TA and one that I think was somewhat justified. So not concerned with him there... His reaction to the theorel wagon isn't my favorite, but not super incriminating.

10. Chairs - 25 posts; after theory and fluff posts arrived on the sudgy wagon; and nothing else.... Fun. This is our best lurker lynch candidate I think. I don't really have a solid read on him... But the question is: do we have a better option than a lurker lynch? I think we do.

11. Nkirbit - 53 posts; I still think his on/off/on reaction to sudgy midday was townie. Also votes Robz and Voltaire throughout the day, those votes looked fine to me. Seems genuinely interested in scum hunting I think... The xerxes vote isn't my favorite, but he is looking at people voting for ash... interesting thing here that nkirbit is voting xerxes for:

I don't want to vote Ashersky because I don't think he's scum.  I'm most suspicious of Xerxes' out of all the people voting for him.. it seems like the type of bandwagoning vote that scum would make.

Vote: Xerxes

But just recently said:

Do we think that scum would look to jump on this wagon, faking frustration (or having actual frustration) with Ash, and hoping the wagon would go through?  I'm actually torn... I think scum want to avoid "obviously bad wagons" that won't go through for town credit, so I'm going to give some towncredit to Xerxes and Voltaire for being on this wagon.  I think it's just more likely that scum avoid the Ashersky situation entirely.

So there is a change of thought. Not necessarily scummy, especially as we now have ash's alignment confirmed, but nkirbit any comments on why the change of thought in regard to this?

12. Xerxes - 15 posts: was pretty willing to band wagon to get the game going. I understand that thought concept. His first 7 posts into the game all deal with voting in someway or another (voting, unvoting, or voting incorrectly) that reads townie to me. new scum I think is much more cautious with their vote. I mentioned that I wasn't a huge fan of his mass claim suggestion start of today. Thought it might be scummy. Could be but I think I am reading town here...

13. Galzria - reread Galz yourself if you want to know the thoughts of our IC



So overall reads:

scummy: theorel, TA followed by chairs and eevee mostly for lack of readability

nullish but both on the slightly townier side I think: voltaire, mail-mi (more townie than volt, maybe volt on the slight scummy side)

town: yuma, galz, xerxes, nkirbit (nkirbit the least townie here, but a pretty big difference between nkirbit and mail-mi I think... although that change in attitude to the ash wagon is a bit troublesome.)
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