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[yuma]

IMO town got lucky day1 this game with crappy scum-hunting that just happened to lock onto scum.  Not because sudgy wasn't suspicious at all (he was), but because no one else was given a reasonable look (outside arguably ashersky).  I still don't think sudgy was suspicious enough to be the "default lynch" that he essentially was.

I disagree. I think sudgy was a pretty good day 1 lynch. Our mistake maybe was never running anyone else up to put pressure on them, but what were we supposed to do - abandon the good target we had because he happened to be the first one to be wagoned?

exactly.

[theorel]

IMO town got lucky day1 this game with crappy scum-hunting that just happened to lock onto scum.  Not because sudgy wasn't suspicious at all (he was), but because no one else was given a reasonable look (outside arguably ashersky).  I still don't think sudgy was suspicious enough to be the "default lynch" that he essentially was.

I disagree. I think sudgy was a pretty good day 1 lynch. Our mistake maybe was never running anyone else up to put pressure on them, but what were we supposed to do - abandon the good target we had because he happened to be the first one to be wagoned?

I disagree that he was a "good target".  That was my point.  We got lucky, because he wasn't a good target...he just happened to flip scum.

[yuma]

IMO town got lucky day1 this game with crappy scum-hunting that just happened to lock onto scum.  Not because sudgy wasn't suspicious at all (he was), but because no one else was given a reasonable look (outside arguably ashersky).  I still don't think sudgy was suspicious enough to be the "default lynch" that he essentially was.

I disagree. I think sudgy was a pretty good day 1 lynch. Our mistake maybe was never running anyone else up to put pressure on them, but what were we supposed to do - abandon the good target we had because he happened to be the first one to be wagoned?

I disagree that he was a "good target".  That was my point.  We got lucky, because he wasn't a good target...he just happened to flip scum.

Bull (clap, clap, clap) Crap (clap, clap, clap)

He was a good target, yes we are lucky that he flipped scum. But we are always lucky when someone flips scum day1, but that doesn't mean they weren't good targets. He was an excellent day1 lynch.

You are just mad because you no longer have the towncred you wanted to lay up in store by being against a townie's lynch.

[theorel]

I've only ever seen 1 or 2 good day1 lynches...but even so, most of them are better than this one.

[yuma]

I've only ever seen 1 or 2 good day1 lynches...but even so, most of them are better than this one.

Well aren't we mister picky?

So for you to have a good day1 lynch? What are the requirements? Apparently hitting scum isn't one of them...

[yuma]

theorel what I really find you suspicious for isn't looking at the sudgy wagon for scum.

That is a fine and good thing to do day2. What I find you scummy for was this sequence of events.

- What there is a wagon on sudgy, I'll go take a look.
- OK, I see the points, but I am going to vote elsewhere
- There is still a wagon on sudgy, I'll go take a look.
- OK, I see the points, but I am going to vote elsewhere
- There is STILL a wagon on sudgy, I'll go take a look.
- Hmmm, the points aren't really that good, he is town.
- OK, he is town. nkirbit is scummy for jumping on his wagon the way he did.


Over time you moved from straddling the wagon, not against it but certainly not for it, to being against the wagon and finding someone scummy on it w/o "knowing" the alignment of the player the wagon had formed on. This is scummy to me. Because it appears that overtime you expressed a growing town read on someone who it appears you knew to not be mafia aligned, hence arguing against a town lynch for town credit while simultaneously finding someone scummy for pushing said non-mafia aligned player. It turns out the player ended up being a SK, lucky for town. Unlucky for you and know you are left with the unenviable task of convincing us this wagon and lynch was bad despite it hitting the SK, who was obviously being scummy, but you couldn't see that because you thought he was town because you knew you weren't partners with him.

Hence my vote.

[theorel]

I think a good lynch at any time is based on actual actions taken by the players concerned.  Where "actions" is being defined as meaningful arguments and votes which have potential to end in a lynch.  If something won't end in a lynch then the arguments are non-committal, you're sifting through what players have "said" they think without knowing what they actually think.

For example, scum players can "say" their partner is scummy without actually worrying about lynching them.  Or they can "say" a town-player is townie without worrying about derailing their lynch.  These are weak arguments, and lead to weak lynches.

This is why day-1 lynches are inherently weaker than later-day lynches.  Because they're largely based on what people say.  But occasionally, you can draw "action"s out of players even day-1 by having sufficient pressure to actually look like a lynch.  Of course, this only works if sometimes you actually lynch those people...but well, sometimes you have a derp-hammer.

Looking back through games where I was town (I'll ignore scum games, because it's harder to judge what I really think of them):
MIV was a good day1 lynch.
MVIII no day-1 lynch
MXII was a bad lynch (as mentioned, basically the same situation as this)
MXVII was a good lynch, even though I opposed it.
MXIX was hmm...I dunno.  I opposed the lynch, I thought it was bad at the time.  I think it was better than this one, even if the arguments were bad.
MXXX was a mediocre lynch.

[Voltaire]

What's your point, theorel? I'm totally ok putting you up to L-1, but I want to re-read this day because if you flip town we will have (again) spent an entire day on one person (something that I think was fine D1! Despite what sudgy and theorel say, D1 was mcawesomesauce).

[theorel]

I was asked what qualifies a good lynch.  I specified what qualifies a good lynch.  I don't think sudgy qualified as that.  That was my point.

My argument was that day-1 lynches are often bad, I often oppose them, this wasn't a bid for town-cred, it's how I play the game.  Both games where I supported the day-1 lynch it was after pushing against another day-1 lynch.  Recently MXXX where the lynch I pushed against was on scum (I just happened to land on scum anyways).

[Twistedarcher]

I agree with Voltaire, what's the point? I disagree that sudgy was a bad lynch, he was scummy, we lynched him, and hey he's scum. What could be better than that?

Where do you think we should look today?

[Voltaire]

Ok, caught back up, game refreshed in my mind.

First, LAME to yuma for his pick-a-fight-with-Galz ploy. Ploys are dumb. Why? Because you can't guarantee they won't catch gullible town. A category into which I will happily place myself. (hi scum! you can convince me you're right pretty easily, I'm totally serious!)

Second, I agree with the thinking that the ash wagon was entirely town. Why? Because I know the alignment of everyone on it but Xerxes, and I have a big townread on him. Especially after his massclaim suggestion. I think the only way he does that as scum is if a vet told him "new players might try this so do it". At the very least, I don't want to lynch him today (or soon).

Third, my personal lynch pool is then

Eevee
Yuma
TwistedArcher
Theorel
Mail-mi
Chairs
Nkirbit

and there (almost) has to be three scum in there. And town has a doctor, and a vig, and another PR out there. Also the IC is still alive and well. Feelin' pretty darn good about our situation right now.

Have we had a vote count recently? Who are the theorel voters?

[Twistedarcher]

Yuma, nkirbit, me, xerxes

[Voltaire]

D1 final vote

chairs (2): theorel, sudgy
sudgy (7): Twistedarcher, chairs, yuma, Nkirbit, Eevee, Voltaire, Robz888
ashersky (1): XerxesPraelor
Voltaire (1): ashersky
Eevee (1): mail-mi

Not voting (1): Galzria

I am virtually certain scum is on the sudgy wagon (because even if theorel is scum, the only possible way they're not is mail-mi + xerxes, and I find xerxes town).

So other than theorel, I am most interested in lynching Twistedarcher, chairs, yuma, Nkirbit, Eevee. Add in theorel and the person falling off my "lynch list" from my previous post is mail-mi. I'm ok dealing with mail-mi on a later day if needed.

Also, I did a quick vote count.

Vote Count 2.Voltaire

theorel (4): yuma, nkirbit, TA, Xerxes

Not Voting (10): Eevee, Voltaire, Theorel, Mail-mi, Chairs, Galzria

[yuma]

I'll agree with the lame assessment.

There has to be three scum. we know this now.

setup is MDDV at least, so at most 3 Ts

The only setups with only 2 mafia are:

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

all of which have more than 3Ts

The setup for mafia has to be:

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

or

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

[Voltaire]

Right, yuma. My (almost) has to be comment was referring to the fact that I could be wrong and Xerxes could be scum.

[Voltaire]

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

[yuma]

I have read townish on xerxes, but his thinking that we should get the vig to claim read me a little scummy, especially after it had been specifically stated by the IC that they shouldn't claim. Vig is the biggedt threat to mafia at this point and I coulf=d see new mafia think if only we could get them to claim, we could kill/roleblock them and tried to out them that way...

not a super solid read, but did raise a flag for me.

[Voltaire]

I have read townish on xerxes, but his thinking that we should get the vig to claim read me a little scummy, especially after it had been specifically stated by the IC that they shouldn't claim. Vig is the biggedt threat to mafia at this point and I coulf=d see new mafia think if only we could get them to claim, we could kill/roleblock them and tried to out them that way...

not a super solid read, but did raise a flag for me.

But he would have had an entire night to talk with his scummates...I just don't see it.

[yuma]

Right, yuma. My (almost) has to be comment was referring to the fact that I could be wrong and Xerxes could be scum.

well i see we disagree a bit about xerxes... the problem with your assumption is that mafia wouldn't know there was a vig during night chat.

[yuma]

I have read townish on xerxes, but his thinking that we should get the vig to claim read me a little scummy, especially after it had been specifically stated by the IC that they shouldn't claim. Vig is the biggedt threat to mafia at this point and I coulf=d see new mafia think if only we could get them to claim, we could kill/roleblock them and tried to out them that way...

not a super solid read, but did raise a flag for me.

But he would have had an entire night to talk with his scummates...I just don't see it.

you don't have to see it for it to be possible.

theorel is the biggest suspect for me, but I don't think something that can be read ambivilently should completely discount xerxes from the discussion.

as for what theo's partners do if he is scum... Buss early... ala TA's vote I think. Hope the wagon dissipates but if not at least you are on it. after the wagon reaches 4 votes that stay away, panic... hope the wagon goes away, hammer buss if it gets to that point where he is ver likely to get lynched...

[Voltaire]

Right, yuma. My (almost) has to be comment was referring to the fact that I could be wrong and Xerxes could be scum.

well i see we disagree a bit about xerxes... the problem with your assumption is that mafia wouldn't know there was a vig during night chat.

Ah, point taken.

D2 Post Count!
29 yuma
11 Galz
11 nkirbit
9 TA
8 theorel
7 Eevee
6 Voltaire
4 mail-mi
3 xerxes
2 chairs

[Twistedarcher]

Why are you singling me out over nkirbit when we had the same reaction?

I too would expect scum to bus if theorel is mafia. Xerxes and nkirbit are both very possibly partners should theo turn up mafia.

[yuma]

Why are you singling me out over nkirbit when we had the same reaction?

I too would expect scum to bus if theorel is mafia. Xerxes and nkirbit are both very possibly partners should theo turn up mafia.

I have a stronger scum read on you from day1 than nkirbit. also nkirbit has knowledge about his own alingment (part of the case against theo is his case on nnkirbit day 1) whereas you don't know nkirbit's alignment.

could nkirbit be bussing? sure, but i think yours fits the bill better. doesn't mean that you are either... just that if only one of you is, I would say it is you.

[Galzria]

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

Are you trying to find out so that you can do the opposite?

[nkirbit]

If theorel is indeed scum, what do his partners do?

We should worry about that tomorrow if we lynch thereol and he turns out to be scum. Not earlier.