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[ashersky]

Sorry guys, not sure if I've ever had more pages to catch up.

I understand why people are frustrated by Ash's play, and I appreciate the fact he could be scum.. but occam's razor and stuff, no way he is the most likely to be scum given his claim. Also, in the scenario where he is town, we want him to use his ability. So, after Galzria ash is the lynch I like the least.

Other than ash, I for once find multiple people scummy. sudgy' "grand reveal" of how to catch him was really a whole bunch of nothing, generally I find profound statements like that very towny.. that just didn't feel very profound. Again, like he is saying things just to get the town cred.

Robz seems to have a bias, thinking Voltaire is scummy in every game. I disagree with his "I just voted for sudgy to bait because he is so town", you just can't know that sudgy is town, so drawing any conclusions from that is silly. Also, sudgy just is scummy, I don't think joining a reasonable wagon in a situation where we need a lynch is punishable.

I find Xerxes scummy for his contributions. It's not like I see him as much more likely to be mafia than anyone else, so I guess giving him a pass for day 1 is fine. Yuma suggesting that somehow felt off to me, probably because he said he has a town read on xerxes in the same post, and that's a position I don't agree with. yuma has been less of a presence, but with the baby that's hardly a surprise.

chairs's style is somehow very unmemorable for me, I never seem to have any reads on him (sorry dude!). mail-mi I'm also very very null on, which is scummy in itself. theorel has been less of a presence after dominating the discussion a bit at first, which I also find suspect.

I'm not hammering sudgy right now, but if it was deadline time,I sure would.

The Eevee that talks about scum reads instead of town reads is usually scum!eevee.  I feel like that happens because when he's scum, he generally looks to seed doubt, whereas town he likes to remove town from the equation.

Just a thought.

[Galzria]

Sorry guys, not sure if I've ever had more pages to catch up.

I understand why people are frustrated by Ash's play, and I appreciate the fact he could be scum.. but occam's razor and stuff, no way he is the most likely to be scum given his claim. Also, in the scenario where he is town, we want him to use his ability. So, after Galzria ash is the lynch I like the least.

Other than ash, I for once find multiple people scummy. sudgy' "grand reveal" of how to catch him was really a whole bunch of nothing, generally I find profound statements like that very towny.. that just didn't feel very profound. Again, like he is saying things just to get the town cred.

Robz seems to have a bias, thinking Voltaire is scummy in every game. I disagree with his "I just voted for sudgy to bait because he is so town", you just can't know that sudgy is town, so drawing any conclusions from that is silly. Also, sudgy just is scummy, I don't think joining a reasonable wagon in a situation where we need a lynch is punishable.

I find Xerxes scummy for his contributions. It's not like I see him as much more likely to be mafia than anyone else, so I guess giving him a pass for day 1 is fine. Yuma suggesting that somehow felt off to me, probably because he said he has a town read on xerxes in the same post, and that's a position I don't agree with. yuma has been less of a presence, but with the baby that's hardly a surprise.

chairs's style is somehow very unmemorable for me, I never seem to have any reads on him (sorry dude!). mail-mi I'm also very very null on, which is scummy in itself. theorel has been less of a presence after dominating the discussion a bit at first, which I also find suspect.

I'm not hammering sudgy right now, but if it was deadline time,I sure would.

The Eevee that talks about scum reads instead of town reads is usually scum!eevee.  I feel like that happens because when he's scum, he generally looks to seed doubt, whereas town he likes to remove town from the equation.

Just a thought.

That could very well be a good point. Can you support it beyond "I feel like..."?

[Robz888]

I have no idea how scum Eevee plays. I can't think of him ever being scum in a completed game since Mafia 3, other than one Blitz game I was in (and I'm sure some RMMs and BMs and the like, but I can't keep them straight).

[ashersky]

I have no idea how scum Eevee plays. I can't think of him ever being scum in a completed game since Mafia 3, other than one Blitz game I was in (and I'm sure some RMMs and BMs and the like, but I can't keep them straight).

Mean girls.

[ashersky]

Okay, so the thing about Robz is, for him the inconsistencies and unrefined play is just disinterested townie. I see the case against him, I really do, but he has been mislynched like this so often. Have we ever nailed scum Robz day 1? Of course he could be scum and banking on someone to say this but man, intentionally appearing scummy as scum to look towny is just so far-fetched he deserves it if that's the case.

So, much like in bankers beware the scummy Jimmm we were seeing was not the scum Jimmm I know, this isnt the scum Robz I know. I dont know if its everyone rallying against him all of a sudden or what, but this now reminds me of Robz in mafia noir. Annoingly scummy, but town.

I like the mail-mi lynch better. We caught him for "obvious scum play" once already, so while the case on Robz is similar, I think the same behavior is a MUCH bigger scumtell for mail-mi.

Compare this to eevee's latest here.  Change robs to ash.  Change mail-mi to sudgy (or xerxes).

This was late D1, first post after a "sorry catching up on mobile" type post.

[ashersky]

Not a perfect match, but same idea.  Open with "scummy seeming guy isn't likely scum" then direct attention to other scummy read.

[Robz888]

I have no idea how scum Eevee plays. I can't think of him ever being scum in a completed game since Mafia 3, other than one Blitz game I was in (and I'm sure some RMMs and BMs and the like, but I can't keep them straight).

Mean girls.

Oh, yeah. I died Night 1 in that game, I didnt follow it closely after that.

[ashersky]

Example reads post from scum!eevee:

Okay, I'm here now. ashersky, you've called me out on being too lurky in like my past 5 games (all town), but I do realize I haven't been a big presence here (well, I just had 3 pages to read, so that much is obvious). I know I haven't posted anything in the VLA thread, I did briefly mention this in the other mafia game though I guess. It's really that it's summer! I'm spending way less time inside / on my computer, so way less time for mafia. I should really prioritize reading and posting higher, that's really not an excuse. Been feeling a bit of a burnout.

But okay!

I'll do a read list to get back to the swing of things:

yuma: nullread, it's unfair to expect him to lead every post count, he is certainly pulling his weight and taking stances. If anything, I'd expect scum yuma to try even harder to appear leader-y town. Ever so slight town read.

ashersky: hasn't done anything crazy and generally seems to be very pro-town and helpful, as is known I attribute this behaviour more to scum ashersky. Like, in the last game as town, he decided to be a tellbot in the beginning, here he isn't making such waves. I'm not bringing this up as a case, as I don't want to encourage ash to jump off the rails (I think he is playing very well now!), but it does make him bit of a scumread to me.

mail-mi: I rather like AHoppy's case! I hadn't realized mail-mi sort of artificially ups his (perceived) contributions and post count, that's day 1 scumminess I think actual mafia would want to do (and it wasn't so obvious that mail-mi would be sure everyone would notice). I'm really interested in seeing how mail-mi proceeds to play (won't comment further on this, as it would be very dumb to tell him how he should act so I'd think he's towny).

liopoil: Hmmh, it's funny, I know he has posted, but absolutely nothing comes into mind. That combined with the fact that he would have been a prime candidate for a scum partner for myself makes me suspicious. I think liopoil fits the bill of a mafia player that is helping town enough to not attract suspicion but still not making any waves and generally just so middling and safe. I think this fits the bill of a "laying low" mafia guy if any! Obviously it also makes sense for a townie that just hasn't been in the middle of anything yet, so the "case" is really nothing but fitting a narrative I earlier described. (I do think that narrative would be a good way to pick day 1 lynches/pressure targets though).

Robz888: Who knows with this guy. To me his lurking is a null tell, he has been frustratingly lurky as town and boldly lurky as scum before. He tells with pride how he balances that out, while I disagree with that, it clearly means his scumminess doesn't equate to a lot of mafianess (sadly). I don't think he is our man for day 1, but he certainly isn't a town read. Maybe a ever so slight scum, just for not doing anything too towny yet. (Also a lot of people would be tempted to pick this guy as their partner.)

nkirbit: I think is playing well, I don't remember much but I sort of expect new scum to be clumsy (perhaps this is a wrong assumption though, they seem to play town just as well if not better as us "veterans"). nkirbit, what's your previous mafia experience like?

AHoppy: Very few posts, but just got the mail-mi case in so is in my good graces now. Just having two posts and then coming out with a well laid out and to me a very reasonable case on someone is exactly the kind of play that I don't attribute to mafia: first he made waves with egregious underposting and then with an original case on someone. Yes, I'm hoping he'll be more of his presence on page 16 and less of his presence in the previous 15 pages, but he is a town read for sure. AHoppy, what's your previous mafia experience like?

MGP: Got a lot of heat I sort of found undeserved, and I think handled the pressure ok. Town-ish read / I don't think a good day 1 lynch with the information we have. (I know I defended her stronger earlier, but that was more like "uhm no, I don't think that's very scummy" rather than "that's super towny!). Maybe I'd even put her down as a null read, as I've never seen her react to pressure before so it's hard to draw any conclusions from that (and I think reacting to unwarranted pressure is easier to scum as they don't have to fake outrage).

mcmcsalot: Is busy? Hmm, my meta feeling on mcmc is the same than on yuma, I wouldn't expect him to go for the "middling nonwavemaking mafia" style, but rather to boldly take a bigger role. Well, I doubt he would be able to do that if he is busy, regardless of his alignment, but still being "on the middle" as far as I can tell (I don't remember anything he has done) is less scummy to mcmc than it would be to some. Still, not doing anything towny is always a scumtell to me, so a very tiny scumread on mcmc.

spiritbears: This is actually interesting, I obviously had a towny feeling on him before I started writing this post, but now that I've thought about this game more, I realize his level of activity is sort of unlike the spiritbears that has been town that I've seen before. It's certainly great, and could be just natural progression as he starts to know the other players better et cetera, but spiritbears is clearly savvy enough ro realize we don't tend to lynch the heavy contributors and be posting more because of that. Still, I think his answer to the "who would you have picked" question is a towny one (making waves!), and I doubt scum would intentionally be bold there, so for that, for handling pressure well and for generally being present and active spirit is a townread for me. Also I want to note that I was the one to deflect the lynch from spirit/wero to Robz in the samurai-game. We had likely already won at that point, but I do credit myself with being able to read spirit at least a bit because of that. So, even if he was a nullread or a slight scumread I'd rather keep him alive and hope to make a better read on later days.

sudgy: I've got nothing. I didn't have anything on scum sudgy in the LOTR game until WS got the cop investigation, so this fits his scum narrative in my opinion. Slightly scummy for not making waves which is what I think he'd do as scum.

TwistedArcher: Apparently isn't playing, huh!

[ashersky]

A quintessential town post from Eevee:

Quick comments on these recent, fascinating developments:

-I love it ash, that was awesome! Whatever to help us past RVS. I get a town read from that, thinking of a different way to get the game going and scumhunt seems towny.

-I indeed find both chairs and Voltaire towny for our discussions in the qt.

-Everyone should use their qt to it's full potential and scumhunt the bejesus out of their mates there. It really is much easier to do so in a crowd of three as opposed to a full game.

-Should we post all discussions we had in the QT here? EFHW, are we allowed to?

-Galz, having a scum read on one or your house mates doesn't make the other townier because "having two scum in a house is unlikely". After you assume there is one scum, the second person is just as likely to be scum than anyone else.

All towny references.  This is D1 HP.

[Galzria]

I see a lot of null reads in there, but not too many big scum reads.

You're right though that he does have a tendency to fight harder for his town reads when he's town, rather than hunting down scum. So his list of scum reads is... odd.

[ashersky]

If you scan his town games, you'll see lots of one-line posts and engagement with people and less of the big reads type stuff, I think.  Scan D1 of HP.  He's chipper and excited, emotive.  Those are Eevee town tells to me.

[ashersky]

I see a lot of null reads in there, but not too many big scum reads.

You're right though that he does have a tendency to fight harder for his town reads when he's town, rather than hunting down scum. So his list of scum reads is... odd.

I think scum!eevee scum hunts, while town!eevee town hunts, if that makes sense.  Town eevee is looking for teammates to NOT lynch, while scum eevee is looking for an acceptable mislynch with backing.

[Robz888]

If you scan his town games, you'll see lots of one-line posts and engagement with people and less of the big reads type stuff, I think.  Scan D1 of HP.  He's chipper and excited, emotive.  Those are Eevee town tells to me.

To the extent that I know scum!Eevee at all, I do agree with you here, ash.

[XerxesPraelor]

Sorry I haven't been posting very much. I'm quite a few time zones off from all of you (I'm in europe) so whenever I'm on, nothing much changes, but I woke up this morning and found like 6 pages I hadn't read.

Anyway, I haven't been in a game with the rest of the people here, so I just have other peoples' arguments to go off of, not my own intuitions about who looks scummy. Reading peoples' arguments, ash for his behavior and sudgy for the fact that most of what he says is one-liners, not full-on arguments, seem worst to me. But as other people have pointed out, we don't want to lynch ash day 1 or we might lose his role. Eevee has been accusing me, but he still seems pretty town-like. I don't have an opinion on Robz, yuma seems very towny, so probably mail-mi seems the most suspicious here. I also haven't read as much that TA posted, so he's the only other one I'd be willing to lynch. In any case, we don't want to end the day without a lynch, so I'll vote for whichever one of (mail-mi, sudgy, ta) has most votes.

[Robz888]

Xerxes, I am basically just giving you my Day 1 newbie pass. Expect serious heat tomorrow!

[theorel]

I see ashersky's argument.  I will counter with, that's what happened in DS9, and resulted in 2 things:
1. not a whole lot day1 (bit of argument).
2. lynch of lurking town-Eevee day2.

So, I do think (really, same as I thought there) that this is scummy for Eevee.  It makes him look scummier.  BUT it's not a slam-dunk case.  I don't think it's worth trying to start a wagon from scratch at this stage...although we're pretty weak on lynch-candidates.

[theorel]

I reviewed chairs here and in MXXVII(HP)/MXXVIII(Clue)
In HP where he was scum and lynched day1.  He seemed really serious the whole time.  It seems like the argument for his lynch was that he too-quickly reduced the lynch-pool?  Combined with some contradictory posts regarding his interactions with mail-mi?

In Clue (as town) he seemed a bit less serious.  He also did a massive shraeye-style analysis.

Here, he seems more jokey than in Clue...although it's still restricted to a couple posts.  He's not doing as significant of analysis, but he's more constrained for time these days.  The result of all of this is that I feel like his meta is still developing, he's pretty inconsistent in style from game-to-game.  But if anything he seems closer to his town-game than scum-game here.  Basically, he's a bit more light-hearted in his town-play compared to scum-play.  It's possible he's faking it, but for now I'm leaning back to town on him.  unvote

[theorel]

Okay, so I think I need to figure out my actual reads again.  I'm having trouble keeping track.  Okay, let's try something a little different this time.  I'm going to list all players, and try to sort them from scummiest read to towniest.

nkirbit - I dunno, his posts seem not genuine somehow?  I mean before with the quasi-defense of sudgy, and now with the vote essentially for defending himself.  I disagree substantively with the idea that town is more likely to present "better" alternatives, I think that's more likely to be scum (see mail-mi in XXX where he suggests Robz as a "better" alternative as an example).  Town is more likely to get stuck on their own "towniness", while scum really just wants someone else lynched.

Eevee - There's just not a lot to go on this game.  This day has gone so strangely, that I have no good "action-analysis".  i.e. there's no apparent way that scum are trying to control the game, unless they're really seeking to get sudgy lynched...but that doesn't fit with a scum-narrative.  So, we end up with the relatively minor Eevee-finds-people-scummy case, as really one of the more compelling cases.  Funny, given that I just gave an example of where it wasn't true.

mail-mi - I looked into the lurking thing.  It seems like it's not a scum-tell, given that he has had middling-low post counts as both town and scum before.  He tends to be a low-end poster, but not absent.  I'm willing to admit that I just got lucky in MXXX.

sudgy - I dunno, I'm more convinced he'll be flipping town.  But we're in this weird case of alternatives all being quickly rejected as the sudgy wagon builds up again.  I just don't see sudgy as scummy enough to be the default-lynch.  I mean, I don't think he's super-townie...I dunno.  I'll vote here to ensure a lynch if it's needed, but I just don't get the fervor about it.

And, I'm not explaining the rest of these, I think they're all explained elsewhere if you're curious.
twistedarcher
yuma
xerxes
chairs
Robz
ashersky
Voltaire
Galzria

Well, I just offered a counter-example for Eevee being scum.  Although it seems like there's more support there, I'm going to vote: nkirbit first, to see if there's any unspoken support there.

[mail-mi]

vote: eeveeis better than sudgy, IMO.

[Eevee]

Well, yeps. That's true and a valid point, I even pointed it out myself. You get a different perspective on the game when you read 35% of the game in one sitting and dont get to contribute anything as everything unfolds. This day 1 has also been unique in that we've only had one serious candidate and i was one of the guys to start that wagon - i think the case on sudgy is viable and there havent been any other potential lynches to draw reads from (except for ash and guess what, thats the one town read i do have).

In the end I think that explains why my reads are like this. Only one real wagon is pretty bad for us information-wise - especially as i find it has been supported pretty much proportionally to the strength of the case.

[Eevee]

To expand on the earlier point: PoE is significantly harder when less people have been under real pressure and more people have had similar opinions. So little to go on!

The fact that ash, someone i believe to be town pointed this out and it gained momentum that fast is interesting, but unless sudgy is scum, scum is sitting comfortable right now. If sudgy is town, they really dont have to "risk their reputation" by trying to shift it to me.

Sudgy by the way could realistically have claimed or hinted at his role at some point this far but hasnt. i think thats good play, but makes some roles less likely.

[chairs]

I'm not sure I followed your argument on nkirbit, can you clarify?

[yuma]

post count!

1. Eevee - 13
2. Robz888 - 120
3. Ashersky - 232
4. Voltaire - 88
5. Yuma - 101
6. Twistedarcher - 55
7. Theorel - 35
8. Sudgy - 148
9. Mail-Mi - 50
10. Chairs - 22
11. Nkirbit - 39
12. Xerxes - 11
13. Galzria - 52

things that stand out to me...

sudgy is really high, I imagine because he has felt compelled to defend himself so much, theorel dropped down a lot. He was toward the top initially when we were just talking theory, but has dropped off a lot as we have moved toward the scum hunting... really I think theorel is off. His scum hunting has been... rather mediocre... and I don't like his stances on sudgy... this whole middleground thing going on that he has done since the beginning. I am becoming more and more suspicious of it regardless of sudgy's alignment, actually.

I still have a townread on nkirbit. He is on the lower end, but I think that is kinda par for the course for nkirbit with his busier schedule. Eevee thanks for coming back. I don't really see the points that ash is trying to make. I guess mostly because the sample size is so small. Eevee is almost always town, his scum games are soooo rare, and so spread apart that it is hard to pick out trends with him at all.

chairs... again, he is about where I expect him to be.

Voltaire on the other hand, I actually expect to be a bit higher. I have kinda stayed away from the voltaire lynch because I felt some of the reasons people have suspected him have been ridiculous, specifically the "How did you know that Robz was town" stuff. But he could be worth taking a look at again.

So as I said before I think my lynch pool at this point is sudgy, theorel and maybe voltaire and maybeeee chairs. I think I would add in Robz in there as well, but I think I would prefer any of the above three first.

But I far and away prefer sudgy and think that those saying we won't get any information out of it are being silly... There is lots of information to get out of it! And, beside, we don't lynch for information, we lynch to hit mafia. The information is going to come regardless of who we lynch, unless it is for some dumb scumslip that leaves apparently everyone suddenly w/o autonomy, but the sudgy lynch isn't anything like that, so I don't see the worry.

[Voltaire]

I will be away starting in about 7 hours, so wherever my vote is at that point is where it will have to stay. Fine with it on sudgy right now.

[Eevee]

is sudgy L-1?