Yuma, what's the difference between these two setups?:
MMMDDTT
MMMTTTT
The difference, obviously, are Doctors (and which scum are in the game).
Here's another difference: Scum know which set they rolled (but not exactly how many). If they rolled 3T/4T, and then they saw my reveal, they already know that the setup is at least M-TTT-xxx, with ~50% chance of it being M-TTTT-xx.
The odds that both of those x's (or 2 of 3) hitting DD are relatively slim, yes? But the odds of a single one hitting aren't that bad (not great. 10% per roll).
Now, that makes fake claiming 1-shot-Doctor relatively safe in itself. Chances are you won't get counter-claimed. Further, if one of those x's came up with a single D, you're in great shape, because now you've got town supporting your roll. But let's look at the downside. What if nobody claims Doctor down the line when we mass claim. You're dead to rights... Right?
Not if one of your partners claims Doctor. Now you've got support for your claim. Now you've told the world that the setup is MDDxxxx. And heck, 2/3 of your scumteam with 3T/4T match a 0T-2T team. So you generally don't mind town thinking the setup is MDDTTxx.
My point is that if Ash is on a scum team with 3T/4T - or hell, any scum member is on such a team... If we're dealing with that team, there's a LOT of fake claim room, that produce equally viable setups, but replace T's that scum know exist with basically anything else. In Ash's case, as an early claim, claiming something that requires another letter makes sense. It reduces the odds you'll be counter-claimed while buying you the maximum town credit, and if, down the line, you come to find out your requisite letter isn't in the game then there's still room to play. It's not an auto lynch.
Ultimately I think people FAR underestimate what scum will do. They've got a vast amount of information. Much more by far than we do. And to dismiss what they're capable of because you don't think it's likely is detrimental.
I don't think this is at all a compelling reason to believe that Ash is lying. I think that dismissing it as a non-viable claim for scum to make is ridiculous. You're opening yourself up to scum toying with you all the way to end game.
Ashersky, this isn't me trying to shut people down, it's me saying "look, the situation isn't as straightforward as you paint it. Don't just blindly believe and follow things because they're easy. Consider the situations where scum would make that move". Maybe it's not likely, but it's still worth noting and discussing, instead of just writing off.
A vigilant town is a strong town.