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[Twistedarcher]

The main issue is that scum don't know if they're in the first set or the second set. They can't be sure that there's no serial killer. Therefore, claiming masons is incredibly risky, risky enough that it doesn't make any sense for do them. Essentially it's a 50/50 shot on whether there's a Serial Killer, and that 50% chance is not enough to bet your entire game on. That's the core of why I disagree with you.

I disagree on the likelihood of this being an "edge case", as you've described it. It's a 50/50 shot, and if there's a SK in the game, he's going to shoot at the claimed masons either N1 or N2.

I also don't think that another power role should claim, in the case of it being MDDTTTX. Keeping that last power role hidden to keep mafia guessing on the SK is definitely the best position. There's no way a mass claim is optimal.

If there ARE masons, that means that, after they claim, if all claims are correct, we have MMMDDXX. Dealing with a Goon/Roleblocker/Godfather team, with 33% chance of a SK (probably not 33% chance, but close enough, heh, not doing the math). Once again, though, there should be no call for claims, so yeah.

I didn't see you answer my post on trying to hide the fact on whether or not there's a Serial Killer, as that knowledge benefits mafia even more than it benefits town. What are your thoughts on that line of thinking? Basically, we shouldn't push for a vig claim if we end up with two kills, and we should leave mafia guessing as to whether the extra kill was from town or from a SK.

[Twistedarcher]

Basically, I just don't think the odds are in mafia's flavor to claim masons, therefore they won't. So town masons should claim. But I guess everytime I'm saying this I make it more favorable for mafia to fakeclaim, so I'll let it go.

[Robz888]

Here it realllllllllllllllllly feels like ash is "forcing" being himself. Going from 1 to 11, making appeals to emotion, advocating bad claiming, etc. (and by that I mean the cop, not the mason).

Yeah, exactly. Although I could see town!ash trying to hard to act like town!ash and coming off like fake town!ash, which might be what happened here/

[yuma]

Basically my read on ash is "what Galz (and later Robz)" said. Ash clearly went over-the-top in talking to Galz, and was clearly running a crazy gambit. It's the fact that his interactions with Galz in no way escalated "normally". He also did this at the start of the game, with his whole "shoot me in the fucking head" comment (to theorel? TA?). I bet he was trying to escalate stuff back then, too, and it didn't quite take off. That was crazy and out of the blue, too.

He was also clearly implying he was going to flavor claim and get modkilled, too. Pretending he wasn't is ridiculous. I agree with Galz's "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", too. It's like when ash self-voted in whatever game it was and no-one commented. It was just ash.

Here it realllllllllllllllllly feels like ash is "forcing" being himself. Going from 1 to 11, making appeals to emotion, advocating bad claiming, etc. (and by that I mean the cop, not the mason).

Ok.... I get this... But let's look at what ash has claimed. He claimed a 1-shot Doc. For there to be a 1-shot Doc there has to be a Doc. Yes? I am correct about this yes?

So if there has to be a Doc for him to not be lying, if there isn't a Doc he is lying and is scum. Therefore we can use that knowledge to determine if he is scum or not. Rather than trying to second guess whether or not ash is scum based off his emotions and gambits or whatever. Because those are never going to be better than 50/50. Because scum!ash and town!ash are both capable of doing it.

So if we get to a point where we mass claim and no Doctor comes forward... dun, dun, dun... we lynch ash. Simple. Why not wait until that point to consider lynching ash. why potentially waste a lynch on him when he could very easily be town (and a claimed PR for that matter) when we can discover if he is later. Let's use today's lynch on someone else that we aren't currently capable of finding out on a later day...

Like sudgy... or theorel... or just about anyone else for that matter.

[Twistedarcher]

I think Ash is town because of the claim, and I think his takes on theory have been pretty reasonable. I'm not even attempting to analyze the emotion, as it's head-spinning and it resulted in me playing poorly as town last time I got caught up in it.

PPE: Yuma speaks sense

[yuma]

what I am saying is that when you put what ash has claimed and his "antics" I strongly believe that his claim trumps his antics. Because his claim can be used for or against him later in the game whereas his antics are never going to be anything more than people's opinions about them...

[Twistedarcher]

I'm happy to be voting Yuma. What's the case on Theorel, Yuma?

[Twistedarcher]

to be voting Sudgy**

[ashersky]

I'm happy to be voting Yumasudgy. What's the case on Theorel, Yuma?

What is the Theo case?

How's a mail-mi lynch sound?  Other than overdone?

[Twistedarcher]

Mail-mi usually sets off alarm bells when he's scum, which I haven't seen here.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi usually sets off alarm bells when he's scum, which I haven't seen here.

Well, he's barely said anything. Seriously, he's said absolutely nothing.

[yuma]

What's the case on Theorel, Yuma?

There isn't necessarily a case. Like I said I do think that theorel is the most likely to be sudgy's partner, if sudgy is scum. But that doesn't mean that he should be lynched for that before we know sudgy's alignment. That sort of backwards logic almost never works. If a case on him is made up, and maybe it should be, maybe it shouldn't, it should be made independent of his potential to be sudgy's partner (at least until we know sudgy's alignment obviously).

But rather that I think he is on the scummier side of things (or at least the shouldn't be lynched today side of things)... compared to say, ash, xerxes and I would argue nkirbit... and when I typed in sudgy he was the first person to pop into my mind as potential alternate lynches to ashersky.

I far and away prefer sudgy at this point. But far and away don't prefer ashersky at this point. They are like polar opposites.

[yuma]

so are we doing a thursday soft deadline or a friday? Which one did Galz settle on? I don't think we are close to being at a lynch where things currently stand for a thursday softdeadline... but a friday does put us at only having the weekend to work with, which I guess isn't horrible, but not super ideal as availability decreases pretty dramatically...

[mail-mi]

I'm happy to be voting Yumasudgy. What's the case on Theorel, Yuma?

What is the Theo case?

How's a mail-mi lynch sound?  Other than overdone?

Absolutely terrible. Sorry for the absence, I've had a lot of homework recently. I'll do stuff when I can.

[ashersky]

vote: mail-mi

This is an acti-lurking uh-oh post:

I'm happy to be voting Yumasudgy. What's the case on Theorel, Yuma?

What is the Theo case?

How's a mail-mi lynch sound?  Other than overdone?

Absolutely terrible. Sorry for the absence, I've had a lot of homework recently. I'll do stuff when I can.

[Galzria]

Yuma, what's the difference between these two setups?:

MMMDDTT
MMMTTTT

The difference, obviously, are Doctors (and which scum are in the game).

Here's another difference: Scum know which set they rolled (but not exactly how many). If they rolled 3T/4T, and then they saw my reveal, they already know that the setup is at least M-TTT-xxx, with ~50% chance of it being M-TTTT-xx.

The odds that both of those x's (or 2 of 3) hitting DD are relatively slim, yes? But the odds of a single one hitting aren't that bad (not great. 10% per roll).

Now, that makes fake claiming 1-shot-Doctor relatively safe in itself. Chances are you won't get counter-claimed. Further, if one of those x's came up with a single D, you're in great shape, because now you've got town supporting your roll. But let's look at the downside. What if nobody claims Doctor down the line when we mass claim. You're dead to rights... Right?

Not if one of your partners claims Doctor. Now you've got support for your claim. Now you've told the world that the setup is MDDxxxx. And heck, 2/3 of your scumteam with 3T/4T match a 0T-2T team. So you generally don't mind town thinking the setup is MDDTTxx.

My point is that if Ash is on a scum team with 3T/4T - or hell, any scum member is on such a team... If we're dealing with that team, there's a LOT of fake claim room, that produce equally viable setups, but replace T's that scum know exist with basically anything else. In Ash's case, as an early claim, claiming something that requires another letter makes sense. It reduces the odds you'll be counter-claimed while buying you the maximum town credit, and if, down the line, you come to find out your requisite letter isn't in the game then there's still room to play. It's not an auto lynch.

Ultimately I think people FAR underestimate what scum will do. They've got a vast amount of information. Much more by far than we do. And to dismiss what they're capable of because you don't think it's likely is detrimental.

I don't think this is at all a compelling reason to believe that Ash is lying. I think that dismissing it as a non-viable claim for scum to make is ridiculous. You're opening yourself up to scum toying with you all the way to end game.

Ashersky, this isn't me trying to shut people down, it's me saying "look, the situation isn't as straightforward as you paint it. Don't just blindly believe and follow things because they're easy. Consider the situations where scum would make that move". Maybe it's not likely, but it's still worth noting and discussing, instead of just writing off.

A vigilant town is a strong town.

[sudgy]

I would be fine lynching Robz or mail-mi at this point, and could be lead to other people as well if a strong enough case is made on them.  I'm not doing too great reads-wise.

And TA, what exactly are your reasons for voting me?

[mail-mi]

I want a sudgy or TA Lynch, won't do mail-mi, Galz, ash, Yuma (the last two might change) and might do pretty much anyone else.

vote: mail-mi

This is an acti-lurking uh-oh post:

I'm happy to be voting Yumasudgy. What's the case on Theorel, Yuma?

What is the Theo case?

How's a mail-mi lynch sound?  Other than overdone?

Absolutely terrible. Sorry for the absence, I've had a lot of homework recently. I'll do stuff when I can.

You know what I hate? When people have IRL legit reasons to be gone and people get voted/lunched over it. I would policy vote you now if I didn't think you were town.

[Twistedarcher]

I would be fine lynching Robz or mail-mi at this point, and could be lead to other people as well if a strong enough case is made on them.  I'm not doing too great reads-wise.

And TA, what exactly are your reasons for voting me?

You are focused on seeming pro-town, not doing actually pro town things (like scum hunting). You are now more convinced with saving yourself than finding scum, and you are only looking at your wagon exclusively for scum. My original mini case is still valid.

[theorel]

Okay, I'm still trying to figure things out.  I really dislike ashersky's threat of "I'm going to do everything in my power to make town lose".  Followed by "I'm always trying to make my team win, breaking rules to make my team win is just how I play the game" to defend his threat of getting himself mod-killed.

This just seems so much like the scum-ash gambit of mean-girls where he went and /outed from all his games when his claim was disbelieved.

I felt like Voltaire's argument was valid yesterday, when he wanted to vote ash simply for the behavior.  I wanted to see what ash said when he came back.  Annd, it seems scummy to me.  I mean his initial couple posts holding to the whole "I can't break the game, because it'd get me modkilled" thing sounded townie.  But then he switched to, "I'm always working towards my teams win-con, I never actually wanted to get modkilled."  It's broken, the townie stuff doesn't fit.  He was never really frustratedly wanting to kill himself to prove his point, he just pretended to.  I dunno, lies lies everywhere...I don't like lying town, pretending town.  It's anti-town, it distracts everyone from scum-hunting.  How are we supposed to find the difference between scum and town, when town itself is lying?  I'm fully of the opinion that deception does NOT help town.

But, he did self-vote.  He's still not done it before as scum, nor not done it as town.  It's so over-the-top, that maybe he's faking it because he's concerned about that side of his meta being exploited.  I've mentioned it every game so far, so he does know that he can use it to manipulate me at least.  But, until I see otherwise, I'm going to play as though it's entirely indicative of his alignment.

[yuma]

Galz... you are using too many "ifs" for me to be comfortable with this:

For the suspicions of ash to be valid it appears that scum have to have rolled 3Ts or 4Ts. That is a big if. You are leaving out the chance of having 0T, 1T, 2T.

After that you have to assume that ash is lying. That is also a pretty big if I think.

I am not saying we should just let ash live forever and ever if we continue to lack information that proves that he is town. at that point we should start to become suspicious enough to lynch. But right now we have the potential (I am not saying we are for sure going to find out, we might not...) to learn whether he is being true or not... So let's give that potential a chance to make itself known to us and lynch someone who doesn't have that potential right now. If ash doesn't make himself out to be true later... then we can discuss lynching him.

I feel like you are letting a bias get in the way of the facts that are presented/the facts that may be presented in the future.

What do you think of sudgy? I don't think I have heard your opinion on anyone in this game so far except about ash...

[sudgy]

I would be fine lynching Robz or mail-mi at this point, and could be lead to other people as well if a strong enough case is made on them.  I'm not doing too great reads-wise.

And TA, what exactly are your reasons for voting me?

You are focused on seeming pro-town, not doing actually pro town things (like scum hunting). You are now more convinced with saving yourself than finding scum, and you are only looking at your wagon exclusively for scum. My original mini case is still valid.

As I said before, I never try to be pro-town, no matter what the faction I'm on is.  The way you're going to catch me is through other things.  I haven't been scum hunting because I'm still having a hard time reading people.  I haven't been looking at my wagon for scum, I'm voting Robz.  I looked at my wagon because it was the only big thing, and yuma asked me to.

[Robz888]

I'm not thrilled about it, but I don't see myself realistic voting for anyone else, so Vote: sudgy

[chairs]

Still happy with my vote on sudgy.

In fact, more happy when he contradicted his earlier post about always trying to be pro-town when he says this:

I would be fine lynching Robz or mail-mi at this point, and could be lead to other people as well if a strong enough case is made on them.  I'm not doing too great reads-wise.

And TA, what exactly are your reasons for voting me?

You are focused on seeming pro-town, not doing actually pro town things (like scum hunting). You are now more convinced with saving yourself than finding scum, and you are only looking at your wagon exclusively for scum. My original mini case is still valid.

As I said before, I never try to be pro-town, no matter what the faction I'm on is.  The way you're going to catch me is through other things.  I haven't been scum hunting because I'm still having a hard time reading people.  I haven't been looking at my wagon for scum, I'm voting Robz.  I looked at my wagon because it was the only big thing, and yuma asked me to.

[sudgy]

Still happy with my vote on sudgy.

In fact, more happy when he contradicted his earlier post about always trying to be pro-town when he says this:

As I have said countless times before, in this game and other games, ACTING LIKE TOWN DOES NOT MEAN ACTING PRO TOWN.  I WAS SAYING I ALWAYS ACT LIKE MY TOWN SELF WHEN SCUM, NOT DOING PRO TOWN THINGS.  If you want to vote for me over something that I've said AS TOWN, go ahead, but you'll feel stupid.