I'm just trying to ignore it, I don't feel like analyzing that level of emotion.
Galz, are you basically saying that masons shouldn't claim until there's enough flips that we can be 100% sure of their claim? (Or reasonably close). I'd disagree with that.
Scum claiming masons is awful awful for them. Just terrible. They won't do it d1. There's the risk of a Sk existing and outing one of them, and then their game is basically over. I can't see any circumstance where scum would want to back themselves into that corner -- it's just too big of a risk.
Town masons should claim now rather than later. It helps the Poe now, and I think scum are more likely to want to counterclaim after figuring out wether or not a Sk is in the game.
It really wouldn't be that terrible for them. If I were scum, and I knew Ashersky to be town (after his claim), having rolled a 3T/4T setup, I would honestly consider it.
- I would know that the setup is M-DD-TTT-x.
- I would know that I could not be counter-claimed.
- I would know that it's a good place for regular Masons to claim.
- I would know that even if that last undisclosed letter were an 'C' for a 1-shot cop, if we could get a full-claim as Ashersky has been pushing, he wouldn't be a threat to us.
- I would know that if there WASN'T an extra PR in the town that claimed, the setup would be M-DD-TTTT, and there wouldn't even BE a Serial Killer to worry about.
- I would know that even if there was a Serial Killer, I could get the lynch pool reduced to 13 - {IC/Mason/Mason/Doctor/One-Shot-Doctor/'x'} = 7 players, that includes the SK.
- If there's no SK, that lynch pool is 8 players, while the unlynchable pool is 5 players. D1 we would lynch in the pool of 8, while blocking one Doctor and shooting the other. D2 we would lynch #2 in the pool of 8, and shoot the other Doctor at night. D3 we would lynch #3 in the pool of 8, and shoot the IC at night. D4 would dawn with 7 alive, and 3 scum. lylo. Are you going to risk lynching a Mason here? The NK's haven't been at all unreasonable. Put another way, if the setup really WAS MMMDDTT (no SK, real Masons), then I would expect the night kills that I've outlined here would be -
exactly the same as if the scum are fakeclaiming Mason-. Having Masons claim now, when there won't ever be a way to verify if they're town or scum fake claiming, would be really bad, because we WON'T figure it out, and it simply tells scum both who TO kill, and who NOT to kill.
- Now, if there's a SK that means there's an extra PR. This is only a little bit more tricky for Mafia. First, the pool of players that the SK will exist in is only 7 strong. But Mafia can't afford for that pool to get too small too quickly. D1 I expect the lynch to land there. The Mafia Roleblock will likely occur on the extra PR (cop/Roleblocker/vig), and their shot will go into the mix of PR's. I think this is a WIFOM game that can be won by scum most of the time. It would NOT deter me from playing this gambit. I also doubt that the SK would shoot a Mason N1, as they're going to be more interested in knocking off the first Mafia, and after a lynch in the pool of 7 and knowing their own alignment, if the Masons are truthful they've got a 3/5 chance of hitting scum. D2 would dawn then with 5 left in the pool of non-PR players, 5 PR's. After a D2 lynch of the non-PR's, that pool is down to 4. That's 2/6 chances at hitting the SK, and 3/7 overall. If the SK is dead, I would use our Roleblock in the PR's again, and shoot into them again. If the SK is still alive, I would use the Roleblock on the remaining 4 non-PR's, and shoot into the PR's. Realize of course, that I've got 1 member of my Mafia team in the non-PR claims. So my pool of players that the SK could exist in isn't 4, it's 3. The SK likely tries to shoot a Mason here if he's still alive. This is unfortunate, but it's a risk. Going into the Gambit, I feel confident enough in my odds to nullify the SK by this point that I still think it's worth it.
- Assuming the SK kill goes through on N2, and a Mason dies, the two pools are now at 4 non-PR's, 3 PR's ("Mason" died, as did our PR kill). The D3 lynch is on a "Mason". Now, the Roleblocker cannot block and shoot in the same night. He's got a 1/2 chance of guessing who the SK is. The SK has a 1/3 chance to guess who the Mafioso is. If the Roleblocker blocks correctly, nobody dies and Day 4 is 4 non-PR's, 2 IC's. If you lynch either scum, the other NK's an IC. This brings you down to 3 non-PR's, 1 IC. mylo. If you lynched town instead, the Mafioso would Roleblock the SK again, presenting the same as the following situation on the following Day 5: If the Roleblocker blocks incorrectly on Night 3 (but isn't killed by the SK), Day 4 is 3 non-PR's, 2 IC's. Lynch scum here and you're in lylo the following day. Lynch town and.... Happily Ever After? The Roleblocker would lock down the SK each night, and town can't lynch either or they kingmake, so they no-lynch. Eh, that's acceptable to me as scum. The only risk I run here as Mafia, this crazy far down the line, is that:
A) My plan blew up and there IS a SK AND they got their shot through on N2 on one of my Masons, and
B) on N3, the Roleblocker missed the SK, and the SK shot him.
C) on Day 4 / Day 5, the last Mafia was lynched out of the pool of non-PR claims.
All three of those are minimally likely that it's well within what I would consider as "acceptable risks" as scum. And damn man, the amount of town cred I would buy by fake claiming Mason is ridiculous. Not to mention I didn't even look at the outcome that's more likely by N2: that the SK kill is nullified, no Mason dies, and D3 dawns with 4 non-PR's, 4 PR's. That's 8 alive with a known SK and 3 scum. We can't afford to blind lynch into the Masons, who might be telling the truth, so instead we lynch a non-PR. Now, if the SK isn't dead yet, then the Mafia know who he likely is (based on their Roleblock the previous night) and may attempt to steer the NK to him. Even if they don't they can Roleblock him again N3 and kill him with another player. Day 4 dawns with 6 alive, and 3 Mafia. Game over.
Now, maybe Mafia get unlucky and they lose the WIFOM battle shooting in the PR's night 1. Maybe the SK shoots a Mason night 1 and it goes through. It's not foolproof win for Mafia, no. But if I were Mafia, knowing that the setup was at least M-DD-xxxx (thanks to Ashersky's claim), and I knew that my team was 3T/4T strong, I would absolutely 100% claim Mason at this point.