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[nkirbit]

I don't want to vote Ashersky because I don't think he's scum.  I'm most suspicious of Xerxes' out of all the people voting for him.. it seems like the type of bandwagoning vote that scum would make.

Vote: Xerxes

[Voltaire]

I don't want to vote Ashersky because I don't think he's scum.  I'm most suspicious of Xerxes' out of all the people voting for him.. it seems like the type of bandwagoning vote that scum would make.

Vote: Xerxes

As I pointed out before, I think that Xerxes is intentionally wagoning just to get a lynch through because that's how new-to-forum-mafia players play D1. Go back and re-read him.

(I'm not claiming this is good per se but I think it's a strong-ish town read on him)

[Galzria]

I'm just trying to ignore it, I don't feel like analyzing that level of emotion.

Galz, are you basically saying that masons shouldn't claim until there's enough flips that we can be 100% sure of their claim? (Or reasonably close). I'd disagree with that.

Scum claiming masons is awful awful for them. Just terrible. They won't do it d1. There's the risk of a Sk existing and outing one of them, and then their game is basically over. I can't see any circumstance where scum would want to back themselves into that corner -- it's just too big of a risk.

Town masons should claim now rather than later. It helps the Poe now, and I think scum are more likely to want to counterclaim after figuring out wether or not a Sk is in the game.

It really wouldn't be that terrible for them. If I were scum, and I knew Ashersky to be town (after his claim), having rolled a 3T/4T setup, I would honestly consider it.

- I would know that the setup is M-DD-TTT-x.
- I would know that I could not be counter-claimed.
- I would know that it's a good place for regular Masons to claim.
- I would know that even if that last undisclosed letter were an 'C' for a 1-shot cop, if we could get a full-claim as Ashersky has been pushing, he wouldn't be a threat to us.
- I would know that if there WASN'T an extra PR in the town that claimed, the setup would be M-DD-TTTT, and there wouldn't even BE a Serial Killer to worry about.
- I would know that even if there was a Serial Killer, I could get the lynch pool reduced to 13 - {IC/Mason/Mason/Doctor/One-Shot-Doctor/'x'} = 7 players, that includes the SK.
- If there's no SK, that lynch pool is 8 players, while the unlynchable pool is 5 players. D1 we would lynch in the pool of 8, while blocking one Doctor and shooting the other. D2 we would lynch #2 in the pool of 8, and shoot the other Doctor at night. D3 we would lynch #3 in the pool of 8, and shoot the IC at night. D4 would dawn with 7 alive, and 3 scum. lylo. Are you going to risk lynching a Mason here? The NK's haven't been at all unreasonable. Put another way, if the setup really WAS MMMDDTT (no SK, real Masons), then I would expect the night kills that I've outlined here would be -exactly the same as if the scum are fakeclaiming Mason-. Having Masons claim now, when there won't ever be a way to verify if they're town or scum fake claiming, would be really bad, because we WON'T figure it out, and it simply tells scum both who TO kill, and who NOT to kill.
- Now, if there's a SK that means there's an extra PR. This is only a little bit more tricky for Mafia. First, the pool of players that the SK will exist in is only 7 strong. But Mafia can't afford for that pool to get too small too quickly. D1 I expect the lynch to land there. The Mafia Roleblock will likely occur on the extra PR (cop/Roleblocker/vig), and their shot will go into the mix of PR's. I think this is a WIFOM game that can be won by scum most of the time. It would NOT deter me from playing this gambit. I also doubt that the SK would shoot a Mason N1, as they're going to be more interested in knocking off the first Mafia, and after a lynch in the pool of 7 and knowing their own alignment, if the Masons are truthful they've got a 3/5 chance of hitting scum. D2 would dawn then with 5 left in the pool of non-PR players, 5 PR's. After a D2 lynch of the non-PR's, that pool is down to 4. That's 2/6 chances at hitting the SK, and 3/7 overall. If the SK is dead, I would use our Roleblock in the PR's again, and shoot into them again. If the SK is still alive, I would use the Roleblock on the remaining 4 non-PR's, and shoot into the PR's. Realize of course, that I've got 1 member of my Mafia team in the non-PR claims. So my pool of players that the SK could exist in isn't 4, it's 3. The SK likely tries to shoot a Mason here if he's still alive. This is unfortunate, but it's a risk. Going into the Gambit, I feel confident enough in my odds to nullify the SK by this point that I still think it's worth it.
- Assuming the SK kill goes through on N2, and a Mason dies, the two pools are now at 4 non-PR's, 3 PR's ("Mason" died, as did our PR kill). The D3 lynch is on a "Mason". Now, the Roleblocker cannot block and shoot in the same night. He's got a 1/2 chance of guessing who the SK is. The SK has a 1/3 chance to guess who the Mafioso is. If the Roleblocker blocks correctly, nobody dies and Day 4 is 4 non-PR's, 2 IC's. If you lynch either scum, the other NK's an IC. This brings you down to 3 non-PR's, 1 IC. mylo. If you lynched town instead, the Mafioso would Roleblock the SK again, presenting the same as the following situation on the following Day 5: If the Roleblocker blocks incorrectly on Night 3 (but isn't killed by the SK), Day 4 is 3 non-PR's, 2 IC's. Lynch scum here and you're in lylo the following day. Lynch town and.... Happily Ever After? The Roleblocker would lock down the SK each night, and town can't lynch either or they kingmake, so they no-lynch. Eh, that's acceptable to me as scum. The only risk I run here as Mafia, this crazy far down the line, is that:

A) My plan blew up and there IS a SK AND they got their shot through on N2 on one of my Masons, and
B) on N3, the Roleblocker missed the SK, and the SK shot him.
C) on Day 4 / Day 5, the last Mafia was lynched out of the pool of non-PR claims.

All three of those are minimally likely that it's well within what I would consider as "acceptable risks" as scum. And damn man, the amount of town cred I would buy by fake claiming Mason is ridiculous. Not to mention I didn't even look at the outcome that's more likely by N2: that the SK kill is nullified, no Mason dies, and D3 dawns with 4 non-PR's, 4 PR's. That's 8 alive with a known SK and 3 scum. We can't afford to blind lynch into the Masons, who might be telling the truth, so instead we lynch a non-PR. Now, if the SK isn't dead yet, then the Mafia know who he likely is (based on their Roleblock the previous night) and may attempt to steer the NK to him. Even if they don't they can Roleblock him again N3 and kill him with another player. Day 4 dawns with 6 alive, and 3 Mafia. Game over.

Now, maybe Mafia get unlucky and they lose the WIFOM battle shooting in the PR's night 1. Maybe the SK shoots a Mason night 1 and it goes through. It's not foolproof win for Mafia, no. But if I were Mafia, knowing that the setup was at least M-DD-xxxx (thanks to Ashersky's claim), and I knew that my team was 3T/4T strong, I would absolutely 100% claim Mason at this point.

[Galzria]

I'm just trying to ignore it, I don't feel like analyzing that level of emotion.

Galz, are you basically saying that masons shouldn't claim until there's enough flips that we can be 100% sure of their claim? (Or reasonably close). I'd disagree with that.

Scum claiming masons is awful awful for them. Just terrible. They won't do it d1. There's the risk of a Sk existing and outing one of them, and then their game is basically over. I can't see any circumstance where scum would want to back themselves into that corner -- it's just too big of a risk.

Town masons should claim now rather than later. It helps the Poe now, and I think scum are more likely to want to counterclaim after figuring out wether or not a Sk is in the game.

Responding to the same post separately:

Yes, there are situations where Masons claiming now are beneficial. I haven't gotten to them yet, but I fully intend to. Certainly if we're dealing with a 0T, 1T or 2T scum team, it isn't a fake claim that Mafia can use, and thus is a safe claim for Masons to make. My opposition to Ashersky's demands that they (the Masons, if they exist) need to know exactly the pros and cons of doing so, and shouldn't be guided entirely by some rosy picture of how it'll all play out in towns favor down the line. Because it very well may NOT. And I don't feel that Ashersky has done the job of looking at both sides of the situation, at least publicly in thread, regarding the issue. My intentions, whether he likes it or not, is to do exactly that.

[Galzria]

My opposition to Ashersky's demands that they (the Masons, if they exist) claim straight away is that [the Masons] need to know exactly the pros and cons of doing so, and shouldn't be guided entirely by some rosy picture of how it'll all play out in towns favor down the line.

[Galzria]

I don't want to vote Ashersky because I don't think he's scum.  I'm most suspicious of Xerxes' out of all the people voting for him.. it seems like the type of bandwagoning vote that scum would make.

Vote: Xerxes

As I pointed out before, I think that Xerxes is intentionally wagoning just to get a lynch through because that's how new-to-forum-mafia players play D1. Go back and re-read him.

(I'm not claiming this is good per se but I think it's a strong-ish town read on him)

I've noted it as well. I'm not sure that's "new-to-forum-mafia-scum-play", or just "new-to-forum-mafia" play. Scum had N0 chat, yes? I've gotta believe that he would've received tips from some of his scum buddies on how to play if so.

[Galzria]

I'm just trying to ignore it, I don't feel like analyzing that level of emotion.

Galz, are you basically saying that masons shouldn't claim until there's enough flips that we can be 100% sure of their claim? (Or reasonably close). I'd disagree with that.

Scum claiming masons is awful awful for them. Just terrible. They won't do it d1. There's the risk of a Sk existing and outing one of them, and then their game is basically over. I can't see any circumstance where scum would want to back themselves into that corner -- it's just too big of a risk.

Town masons should claim now rather than later. It helps the Poe now, and I think scum are more likely to want to counterclaim after figuring out wether or not a Sk is in the game.

I guess the bigger issue I'm having here that I'm trying to demonstrate, is that there's a natural biased assumption that "Oh, it would be terrible for them, they'll get caught", when in fact that isn't necessarily the case. Heck, under the scenario where this play makes sense for them (3T/4T), I don't even think it ends badly for them a majority of the time. I think that most of the time it ends in either a scum win, or scum putting town in a hell of a situation. At worst, I think that Mafia can reasonably expect the play to -at least- put them into mylo/lylo. Yes, there are edge cases where they lose straight out, but I think it's exactly that, edge cases. You could argue that it's likewise edge cases where they just straight win, but I think they're more often than not in a far better position late game to try and achieve that straight win than they are in a really bad spot late game trying to stave off defeat.

[Voltaire]

I've noted it as well. I'm not sure that's "new-to-forum-mafia-scum-play", or just "new-to-forum-mafia" play. Scum had N0 chat, yes? I've gotta believe that he would've received tips from some of his scum buddies on how to play if so.

Yes, it could be the other. But it's not just the voting pattern, it's also stuff like this post:

I didn't answer because you were right and it's annoying to admit that to someone who voted to lynch you. I went back and checked the records, and I guess it was someone else (I can't see anything Sudgy said that fits that). (yuma, actually) I voted for ta because since I saw yuma, who I thought was innocent argue against him as well. Real life mafia makes it much easier to make a decision. I voted for robz just now because if a random kill helps the town, then I should vote for someone at least so that we end up with a kill, even if I can't see any particular thing he did that's suspicious.

and his entire post history.

It's worth noting that when I floated this idea, yuma had a sort of "OMG YES" reaction that ties them together in a very tiny way. Worth remembering, but I doubt yuma is that obvious.

[Galzria]

I've noted it as well. I'm not sure that's "new-to-forum-mafia-scum-play", or just "new-to-forum-mafia" play. Scum had N0 chat, yes? I've gotta believe that he would've received tips from some of his scum buddies on how to play if so.

Yes, it could be the other. But it's not just the voting pattern, it's also stuff like this post:

I didn't answer because you were right and it's annoying to admit that to someone who voted to lynch you. I went back and checked the records, and I guess it was someone else (I can't see anything Sudgy said that fits that). (yuma, actually) I voted for ta because since I saw yuma, who I thought was innocent argue against him as well. Real life mafia makes it much easier to make a decision. I voted for robz just now because if a random kill helps the town, then I should vote for someone at least so that we end up with a kill, even if I can't see any particular thing he did that's suspicious.

and his entire post history.

It's worth noting that when I floated this idea, yuma had a sort of "OMG YES" reaction that ties them together in a very tiny way. Worth remembering, but I doubt yuma is that obvious.

Indeed. Yuma didn't earn the name invisiyuma for no reason. And earned it was. That said, I know I've seen him in more recent games where he's tried to be much more visible to break that meta. So, kinda null either way on that one.

[Twistedarcher]

Galz, no way I can analyze a post that long on my phone. Ill get to it tonight when I'm on my computer. I appreciate the analysis you're doing though and am looking forward to reading it and replying!

[chairs]

I think that, for D1, we should quit trying to figure out the setup (because at this point there's too many angry sticks in the fire on that subject) and focus instead on lynching Mafia.

[ashersky]

Everyone here seems to be painting me with the asshole brush.  That's not really fair as I am literally not allowed to defend myself against Galzria here, even though I have rock solid proof on my side.

The more I say, the bigger the risk I take.  So instead, I have to sit here and take a beating from everyone when they can't know the whole story.

Can any of you see just how frustrating that is?  No one will trust me against Galz and I can't share the real reason you should.

[Robz888]

Everyone here seems to be painting me with the asshole brush.  That's not really fair as I am literally not allowed to defend myself against Galzria here, even though I have rock solid proof on my side.

The more I say, the bigger the risk I take.  So instead, I have to sit here and take a beating from everyone when they can't know the whole story.

Can any of you see just how frustrating that is?  No one will trust me against Galz and I can't share the real reason you should.

Can you see though why that's not unreasonable?

[ashersky]

Everyone here seems to be painting me with the asshole brush.  That's not really fair as I am literally not allowed to defend myself against Galzria here, even though I have rock solid proof on my side.

The more I say, the bigger the risk I take.  So instead, I have to sit here and take a beating from everyone when they can't know the whole story.

Can any of you see just how frustrating that is?  No one will trust me against Galz and I can't share the real reason you should.

Can you see though why that's not unreasonable?

Robz, it is reasonable to not trust me.  I think it is unreasonable for folks to gang up on me to beat me to a pulp.  Whether they think that's what they are doing, that's how it ends up feeling to the guy who's on an island all alone.

Someone earlier asked me to think about the community.  Man, that's exactly why I'm taking this beating instead of just thwarting it with the information I have.  But protecting everyone else is awfully lonely and thankless.

[Robz888]

Everyone here seems to be painting me with the asshole brush.  That's not really fair as I am literally not allowed to defend myself against Galzria here, even though I have rock solid proof on my side.

The more I say, the bigger the risk I take.  So instead, I have to sit here and take a beating from everyone when they can't know the whole story.

Can any of you see just how frustrating that is?  No one will trust me against Galz and I can't share the real reason you should.

Can you see though why that's not unreasonable?

Robz, it is reasonable to not trust me.  I think it is unreasonable for folks to gang up on me to beat me to a pulp.  Whether they think that's what they are doing, that's how it ends up feeling to the guy who's on an island all alone.

Someone earlier asked me to think about the community.  Man, that's exactly why I'm taking this beating instead of just thwarting it with the information I have.  But protecting everyone else is awfully lonely and thankless.

Okay, I don't think you are being ganged up and beaten to a pulp, honestly. I am being totally objective here. I think a lot of the things you have said have merit. I generally like your thoughts and approach here.

Unfortunately you became so angry--unreasonably, I think--that I am having trouble trusting you. Do you understand that?

[Voltaire]

Robz, it is reasonable to not trust me.  I think it is unreasonable for folks to gang up on me to beat me to a pulp.  Whether they think that's what they are doing, that's how it ends up feeling to the guy who's on an island all alone.

Someone earlier asked me to think about the community.  Man, that's exactly why I'm taking this beating instead of just thwarting it with the information I have.  But protecting everyone else is awfully lonely and thankless.

ash, I am currently now siding with Galz, given that you returned and 1) claimed breaking the rules was the only way to earn our trust (presumably by revealing a doctor-ish flavor claim) and 2) writing two big appeal-to-emotion posts.

Now this is playing the game, and it makes me happy. I am very happy playing the game again. However it does give me an actual scum read on you now.

[yuma]

Everyone here seems to be painting me with the asshole brush.  That's not really fair as I am literally not allowed to defend myself against Galzria here, even though I have rock solid proof on my side.

The more I say, the bigger the risk I take.  So instead, I have to sit here and take a beating from everyone when they can't know the whole story.

Can any of you see just how frustrating that is?  No one will trust me against Galz and I can't share the real reason you should.

ash, I side with you in this argument. I don't side with the way you threatened to get yourself modkilled. I will never side with that. But that is beside the point now as it appears you aren't actually intending to do so. Although, you are still self voting (please unvote and go back to voting sudgy, who we both really think is scum).

The point now remains that Galz... our IC... has stated that he would rather not have the Masons, if there are any claim. I think at some point we have to trust our IC a bit and allow him to lead. I certainly disagree with him and everyone else voting for you. Voting for you right now seems to based off your emotion or their emotion to your emotion. I don't think you are scum, I don't think many others think you are scum, and if they do I think they are wayyyyy off base.

So again, let's drop the Mason issue... they aren't going to claim. Our IC doesn't want them to. Whether that is right or not, deal with it. Everyone who is voting for ash should either unvote or state that they actually think that he is the best lynch to hit scum today. I STRONGLY disagree with that sentiment. And let's actually go back to try and find mafia... specifically sudgy and theorel I think need to be looked at even more, along with chairs.

PS: I am not /out any longer as this looks like it is resolving itself... but I am very serious about considering leaving this community as these sorts of issues continue to crop up every single game (involving different players mind you... I am not blaming any specific individual, but rather noting that all of us need a change of behavior... myself included in many respects...)

[yuma]

I've noted it as well. I'm not sure that's "new-to-forum-mafia-scum-play", or just "new-to-forum-mafia" play. Scum had N0 chat, yes? I've gotta believe that he would've received tips from some of his scum buddies on how to play if so.

Yes, it could be the other. But it's not just the voting pattern, it's also stuff like this post:

I didn't answer because you were right and it's annoying to admit that to someone who voted to lynch you. I went back and checked the records, and I guess it was someone else (I can't see anything Sudgy said that fits that). (yuma, actually) I voted for ta because since I saw yuma, who I thought was innocent argue against him as well. Real life mafia makes it much easier to make a decision. I voted for robz just now because if a random kill helps the town, then I should vote for someone at least so that we end up with a kill, even if I can't see any particular thing he did that's suspicious.

and his entire post history.

It's worth noting that when I floated this idea, yuma had a sort of "OMG YES" reaction that ties them together in a very tiny way. Worth remembering, but I doubt yuma is that obvious.

I am not sure what you are alluding to here... Can you clear that up for me?

[ashersky]

I do think some of you jumped to the conclusion that I was going to flavor claim to get modkilled on purpose based on a question I asked the mod.  I think that's probably a pro-town reaction to my question, although a crazy conclusion to draw.  Most of you know I honestly believe my own town lynch (or the town lynch of others) can be helpful to town and help town win a lot of the time.  A modkill, though, would take away the wagon, which gives scum an out.  Modkill doesn't help me win.

For the record, the mods answers my question.  If you flavor claim, not only are you modkilled, so is a random member of your faction AND the day goes directly to night.

I recommend to any scum that they flavor claim right now.

I highly recommend town NOT do it.

[Galzria]

I'm voting Ash at this time because I think that his play matches that of his scum play more than it does his town play, plain and simple.

Unfortunately, it's a case of the Boy who Cried Wolf with Ash. I've seen him play these exact cards as scum too many times to have any faith in his credibility about being town at this point. And he's never going to stop unless the ploy doesn't work. As town, or as scum.

I recognize that he could be town. But I've enough of a genuine scum read on him over his play to be voting for him. And if I'm wrong then losing a one shot Doctor really isn't that concerning to me. He's got one shot that is as likely to miss as anything else, and we've still got a full Doctor out there that can still protect the people they need to.

I do agree that the issue of Masons can be dropped at this point. They're not claiming, and that's good. If they exist, they're better off staying quiet and either playing their card late when there's no chance they can be lying, or after one is NK'd - there will naturally be enough interaction in thread to clear the other when coming forward.

I do think some of you jumped to the conclusion that I was going to flavor claim to get modkilled on purpose based on a question I asked the mod.  I think that's probably a pro-town reaction to my question, although a crazy conclusion to draw.  Most of you know I honestly believe my own town lynch (or the town lynch of others) can be helpful to town and help town win a lot of the time.  A modkill, though, would take away the wagon, which gives scum an out.  Modkill doesn't help me win.

For the record, the mods answers my question.  If you flavor claim, not only are you modkilled, so is a random member of your faction AND the day goes directly to night.

I recommend to any scum that they flavor claim right now.

I highly recommend town NOT do it.

This made me laugh out loud.

[ashersky]

I do think some of you jumped to the conclusion that I was going to flavor claim to get modkilled on purpose based on a question I asked the mod.  I think that's probably a pro-town reaction to my question, although a crazy conclusion to draw.  Most of you know I honestly believe my own town lynch (or the town lynch of others) can be helpful to town and help town win a lot of the time.  A modkill, though, would take away the wagon, which gives scum an out.  Modkill doesn't help me win.

For the record, the mods answers my question.  If you flavor claim, not only are you modkilled, so is a random member of your faction AND the day goes directly to night.

I recommend to any scum that they flavor claim right now.

I highly recommend town NOT do it.

This made me laugh out loud.

Which part?

[Voltaire]

For the record, the mods answers my question.  If you flavor claim, not only are you modkilled, so is a random member of your faction AND the day goes directly to night.

I will not believe this unless I see a mod post it in-thread.

Ash, now that you've stated it was a gambit officially, I implore you to consider how it is a very unsportsmanlike way to play.

[Voltaire]

I am not sure what you are alluding to here... Can you clear that up for me?

First, I currently have a null read on you and absolutely will not lynch you today. I am referring to this:

Xerxes's most recent post gives me a town read on him. This is now other experienced RL mafia players tend to adjust to the forum-based game, even if some of the specifics don't transfer (saying "I'm voting someone just so we have a lynch") etc.

i agree. if you are going to do the who is off the table list thing you do, xerses should be off I think. I don't want to lynch new players day1 (unless specifically in a newbie game)... for a couple of reasons. 1. it is lame 2. new players don't have a meta, obviously, so a newbie lynch is basically a random lynch as we have so little to compare them to 3. later days are better for finding new mafia... se me in MIII and MV. I played great the first few days, but as we got closer to the end game I made critical mistakes as the game became more complex and I didn't have the experience necessary to get me out of situations and was found out 4. there are much better options among our vets.

That said, if something is horribly, blatantly obvious, I will vote for him. And at the same time xerses shouldn't feel safe and secure and not participate today because he isn't getting lynched, because if he does that it will put the spot light on him in later days.

[Galzria]

Eh... Well, we'll see.

Just to make clear:

I don't at all take offense to anything Ashersky has said/done. It's simply a strategy. It's just one that I know he's as capable of playing as town or scum because I've seen him do it as both. There are nuances to each though, and I lean towards scum nuances here over town nuances for reasons I've explained previously. Doesn't mean I'm right, but it does mean I'm content with my vote there right now.

[Galzria]

I do think some of you jumped to the conclusion that I was going to flavor claim to get modkilled on purpose based on a question I asked the mod.  I think that's probably a pro-town reaction to my question, although a crazy conclusion to draw.  Most of you know I honestly believe my own town lynch (or the town lynch of others) can be helpful to town and help town win a lot of the time.  A modkill, though, would take away the wagon, which gives scum an out.  Modkill doesn't help me win.

For the record, the mods answers my question.  If you flavor claim, not only are you modkilled, so is a random member of your faction AND the day goes directly to night.

I recommend to any scum that they flavor claim right now.

I highly recommend town NOT do it.

This made me laugh out loud.

Which part?

Sorry, not in a sarcastic way at all. The last two lines. They were legitimately funny.