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[ashersky]

Is that L-1 on sudgy?

[Twistedarcher]

I agree with Nkirbit and Galzria's logic on Ashersky. If he's scum, it's a two-man scum team.

[ashersky]

5 votes on sudgy, so L-2.

[ashersky]

Would lynch:  sudgy, TA, Voltaire, Robz, mail-mi
Whatevs:  Theorel, Eevee, chairs, Xerxes, nkirbit
Nope:  ash, yuma, galz

[Twistedarcher]

I'm not sure I follow your logic, sudgy - are you trying to say that town!sudgy and scum!sudgy play the same during the Day?

Because to be honest that's exactly what I'd expect scum!sudgy to say.

I have said it countless times as town.  And it's more that I'm saying that scum!sudgy tries to play like town!sudgy as much as possible.  I can't be perfect, and it's those little things that will help you catch me as scum (unfortunately, you guys seem to always catch me for the wrong things as town).

Sudgy, the amount of self-awareness you have is what's making the case. You seem extremely aware of how you're playing, and extremely concerned with getting what seem to be pro-town opinions out there.

The point is that you seem more concerned with SEEMING pro-town than with actually BEING pro-town. You want to seem like you are on town's side, but you are doing very little to advance town's actually agenda (ie, find scum).

Every post you make is making me more confident that I'm correct.

[ashersky]

Would lynch:  sudgy, TA, Voltaire, Robz, mail-mi
Whatevs:  Theorel, Eevee, chairs, Xerxes, nkirbit
Nope:  ash, yuma, galz

I'd note, if sudgy flips Town, TA moves to whatevs.

[yuma]

Vote Count yuma.2

Chairs (1): Voltaire
Sudgy (5): Twistedarcher, Yuma, Ashersky, xerxes, chairs
Ashersky (1): Robz888
XerxesPraelor (1): Eevee
Nkirbit (1): Theorel
Voltaire (1): Nkirbit

Not Voting (3): Galzria, mail-mi, sudgy

[Twistedarcher]

Yuma, not that I find Robz particularly scummy or want to lynch him, but I disagree that Robz should get a pass D1 because he's not a good D1 lynch. There's enough active players here that, if I think Robz is scummy, I'm going to vote for him and not give him a pass because he's potentially a good town player. Everyone here is a good town player if they're town, and I don't know why Robz should get a D1 pass relative to everyone else.

Not that I think Robz is scummy, so this is more of a policy thing, but I don't agree with giving Robz specifically a D1 pass.

Only people I'm giving D1 passes to are Ash (the claim) and Xerxes (new, and I agree with the points others are making about him).

[Twistedarcher]

Ashersky - Not lynching today. Town.

I want to focus on this read by Chairs. This is his only comment about Ashersky's claim in the thread. I, too, believe Ash to be town, but the amount of conviction Chairs has put behind it is unsettling to me.

If the claim is correct, scum KNOWS that Ash's claim is correct, and they also know that they are barking up the wrong tree by pushing Ashersky. So I'd imagine that they simply accept Ash's claim as true, without trying to fight it or even to analyze it.

Simply put, I think that Chairs is TOO confident in proclaiming Ashersky to be town.

[yuma]

Yuma, not that I find Robz particularly scummy or want to lynch him, but I disagree that Robz should get a pass D1 because he's not a good D1 lynch. There's enough active players here that, if I think Robz is scummy, I'm going to vote for him and not give him a pass because he's potentially a good town player. Everyone here is a good town player if they're town, and I don't know why Robz should get a D1 pass relative to everyone else.

Not that I think Robz is scummy, so this is more of a policy thing, but I don't agree with giving Robz specifically a D1 pass.

Only people I'm giving D1 passes to are Ash (the claim) and Xerxes (new, and I agree with the points others are making about him).

I didn't mean Robz should always get a pass day1. but rather that he starts with a default of not scummy. he has to earn his scuminess (whereas other players generally have to earn their towniness), mostly because that is so hard for me to tell day1. if he is obvious scum he should be lynched, but he is very rarely obvious, hence why he is ver rarely a good day1 lynch...

[Twistedarcher]

I understand, and I agree that I don't have much of a read on Robz this game. I guess I was combining what you were saying and views other people have put forth in other games (that several people are bad lynches D1 because they're good town players)

[yuma]

I understand, and I agree that I don't have much of a read on Robz this game. I guess I was combining what you were saying and views other people have put forth in other games (that several people are bad lynches D1 because they're good town players)

No, i disagree with that premise. a good town player is also a good scum player. lynch on behavior not on potential... i haven't always felt that way, but have arrived at it recently

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 1.5:

Chairs (1): Voltaire
Sudgy (5): Twistedarcher, Yuma, Ashersky, XerxesPraelor, Chairs
Ashersky (1): Robz888
XerxesPraelor (1): Eevee
Nkirbit (1): Theorel
Voltaire (1): Nkirbit

Not Voting (2): Galzria, mail-mi, sudgy

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on October, 19 at 8:00 p.m. Forum time.

[sudgy]

I'm not sure I follow your logic, sudgy - are you trying to say that town!sudgy and scum!sudgy play the same during the Day?

Because to be honest that's exactly what I'd expect scum!sudgy to say.

I have said it countless times as town.  And it's more that I'm saying that scum!sudgy tries to play like town!sudgy as much as possible.  I can't be perfect, and it's those little things that will help you catch me as scum (unfortunately, you guys seem to always catch me for the wrong things as town).

Sudgy, the amount of self-awareness you have is what's making the case. You seem extremely aware of how you're playing, and extremely concerned with getting what seem to be pro-town opinions out there.

The point is that you seem more concerned with SEEMING pro-town than with actually BEING pro-town. You want to seem like you are on town's side, but you are doing very little to advance town's actually agenda (ie, find scum).

Every post you make is making me more confident that I'm correct.

I'm mentioning these things because it's the case on me.  I don't care how I'm playing, I don't care if I'm seen pro-town or not, if you see me trying to be pro-town, you are flat out wrong.  I wouldn't be mentioning any of this stuff if it wasn't what people are talking about.

I'll get around to a full reads list (that will barely have anything) when I'm not as busy (so later tonight).

[Galzria]

I agree with Nkirbit and Galzria's logic on Ashersky. If he's scum, it's a two-man scum team.

You misread my conclusion. It's an extreme gambit if he's on a two man scum team. One that only works out if A) He's the Godfather, and B) our single additional roll was a D (MDTTTTT). And even here, it only works out if the SK doesn't shoot him. It's a whole lot of "if's" that combined are rather unlikely.

I think that if Ashersky is scum, it's far, far more likely that he's part of a scum team whose roll's came to 0T, 1T, or 2T. In this case he's likely a Goon, trying to inflict maximum damage on the town while willingly sacrificing himself for the long term. Even if it blows up in his face and we lynch him first, he's still aiming to get as many PR's exposed as possible.

But, I'm not convinced he's scum. I'm also not convinced he's scum. I need to finish walking through my numbers tonight, and see what the potential gain / loss of claiming or not gets us, vs just lynching him. It's possible he even makes this play as a Godfather, hoping to live through the night and draw an investigation. I still have a lot to consider.

[Galzria]

*-Also not convinced he's town-*

[mail-mi]

Ashersky - Not lynching today. Town.

I want to focus on this read by Chairs. This is his only comment about Ashersky's claim in the thread. I, too, believe Ash to be town, but the amount of conviction Chairs has put behind it is unsettling to me.

If the claim is correct, scum KNOWS that Ash's claim is correct, and they also know that they are barking up the wrong tree by pushing Ashersky. So I'd imagine that they simply accept Ash's claim as true, without trying to fight it or even to analyze it.

Simply put, I think that Chairs is TOO confident in proclaiming Ashersky to be town.

I don't. If he has a town read on ash, the doctor claim shouldsolidify that. Not scummy. TA pulling stuff from chairs to make him sound scummy <-- sxummy. Vote: ta

[yuma]

Vote Count 1.5:

I do find it interesting that sudgy is the only wagon with more than one vote at this juncture in the game...

What does that mean?

At this point if sudgy is scum do his scumteammates buss? Not react to it and hope that someone else does something? Start another wagon in hopes of getting the lynch there? The latter isn't happening, so either avoiding doing anything or bussing.

If sudgy is town how do mafia react? Well they could already be on the wagon, but at this point the wagon is made up of town reads... and chairs... so I am leaning toward less likely that mafia was on the wagon early. Do they try to stay away from the wagon? Join it? (chairs? xerxes?) Support it but not vote there (voltaire, Robz?) Argue against it to get towncred?

I don't know if any of those is likely, but regardless of whether or not sudgy is scum and if he is going to be lynched or not, I am not a huge fan of how the votes are spread out... and I am not a fan of the lack of voting by some people (sudgy... mail-mi until recently, Galz I don't mind because he is IC and probably has a reason for not voting) and for the votes on people who are certainly not getting lynched today (eevee on xerxes, robz on ash)

[mail-mi]

my thoughts on sudgy: He does seem scummier than normal sudgy, but not scummier enough to be a preferred lynch for me. I definitely could go for him, tho.

[chairs]

Ashersky - Not lynching today. Town.

I want to focus on this read by Chairs. This is his only comment about Ashersky's claim in the thread. I, too, believe Ash to be town, but the amount of conviction Chairs has put behind it is unsettling to me.

If the claim is correct, scum KNOWS that Ash's claim is correct, and they also know that they are barking up the wrong tree by pushing Ashersky. So I'd imagine that they simply accept Ash's claim as true, without trying to fight it or even to analyze it.

Simply put, I think that Chairs is TOO confident in proclaiming Ashersky to be town.

...I'm not sure that I follow.  I didn't say "Ashersky is def town".  I said I have a town read on him.  I think you're putting too much weight into my read.

[ashersky]

Ashersky - Not lynching today. Town.

I want to focus on this read by Chairs. This is his only comment about Ashersky's claim in the thread. I, too, believe Ash to be town, but the amount of conviction Chairs has put behind it is unsettling to me.

If the claim is correct, scum KNOWS that Ash's claim is correct, and they also know that they are barking up the wrong tree by pushing Ashersky. So I'd imagine that they simply accept Ash's claim as true, without trying to fight it or even to analyze it.

Simply put, I think that Chairs is TOO confident in proclaiming Ashersky to be town.

...I'm not sure that I follow.  I didn't say "Ashersky is def town".  I said I have a town read on him.  I think you're putting too much weight into my read.

TA's also wrong.  If chairs is mafia, he still doesn't know if I'm the SK or not.  If he's the SK, he doesn't know if I'm mafia or not.

So the normal "mafia think someone is town too quickly because they already know" scum tell doesn't work when there are multiple scum teams possible.

[theorel]

This has been a bit of a weird game development-wise I think.  Only one serious wagon, and it's still just kind of hanging out there, up at L-2 now.  It's a case that's appealing to a lot of people, which means, of course, I don't see it.  I mean, I get the case (I think), but I don't understand why it's being just eaten up by everyone.

Anyways, everything seems to be sort of revolving around the sudgy wagon...this seems unhealthy to me for developing reads.  But, I haven't really tried to solidify anything, so let's see if I can:
(As mentioned, I think ash's claim makes 3 scum essentially certain.  So, 3/13 scum = base 23 scumScore)

sudgy: I see the arguments against him, but I don't feel like he's scummy enough to be getting this much support for his lynch.  At this point, I am getting a little suspicious of his wagon...It's a slow build, but nothing else seems to be going anywhere.  scumScore: 25

TwistedArcher: first voter on sudgy.  Vocal proponent of his wagon/lynch.  My gut says, scum doesn't usually do that.  But then I think back to Innovation, and the argument with spiritbears.  OTOH, he wasn't anywhere near the actual lynch (none of us were).  Meh, that leaves me a shade on the scummy-side of neutral.  scumScore: 24

yuma: second voter on sudgy.  He seems to be playing a less blinder-focused game (than TA), although he's definitely going in for the sudgy-lynch.  My memory of scum-yuma was him constantly bringing up partner Glooble as scummy.  He's leading town somewhat, and obviously invested in the game (presumably due to his drought of games).  I think you should be wary of yuma, especially if he has over-accurate reads.  (although he could play up that angle and lead a bunch of mislynches too).  I think I'm going to maintain a scum-read on yuma as I do with shraeye...just too hard to detect for me to feel safe with a town-read towards him.  scumScore: 25

ash: third voter on sudgy.  Huge gambit if he's scum.  scum-ash likes huge gambits.  He has also nicely set himself up to not self-vote, and play to a different meta due to his role.  Ash claiming makes me nervous, because he's not being typical (VT) ash.  But it's not necessarily scummy.  And his reaction to it, is what I would expect from town-ash.  It's just, scum-ash is good enough to fake it.  Bah, I dunno...I'll lean town for now.  scumScore: 20

Eevee: fourth vote on sudgy, abandoned for xerxes.  Kind of quiet, but that's sort of normal for Eevee these days.  Not much of a read here at all.  scumScore: 23

nkirbit: defended sudgy, voted him over contradiction, retracted after explanation.  Vote on Voltaire based on a lack of understanding about the possibilities regarding ash's fake-claim, which I'm still not sure he understands, but maybe Galzria's explanation will clarify it?  I don't think the vote-then-retract was entirely townie...it's just a thing, that either nkirbit would do, or scum-nkirbit felt town-nkirbit would do.  Pretty weak read here.  scumScore: 24

mail-mi: is he lurking as hard as he seems to be?  Voltaire had him in the bottom post-count.  I just feel like, town mail-mi always looked scummy, but my only interaction with scum mail-mi has been lurking mail-mi.  Is this really an invalid read (I think some spectators said it was?)  scumScore: 28

Xerxes: also lurking hard, but new.  I'd love to hear more from him, and hope to hear more as days go on.  null here.  scumScore: 23

Voltaire: this feels like town-voltaire to me.  Admittedly, I've never played with scum-Voltaire.  Probably once I've seen you all as scum and town, I'm just going to have no reads at all day1...but for now, I've got a town-read here.  scumScore: 18

Robz: He's been super-quiet, but might be actually getting into the game.  Cool, I was bummed that he basically never got into MXXX.  He seems the same so far as Robz did there (i.e. non-participatory).  scumScore: 23

chairs: I'm not sure how to read chairs.  Has he ever been scum?  I feel like his game-play is still developing, so it's hard to peg him down.  He posts infrequently.  His reads list is weird, half-joking.  I'm not fully sure I understand all of his reads, which is vaguely suspicious (because they're easy to back out of if they're hard to understand).  scumScore: 24

I'm going to vote: chairs.  Not sure if Voltaire still wants his vote there, but I'm willing to join him and see where things go.

[ashersky]

This has been a bit of a weird game development-wise I think.  Only one serious wagon, and it's still just kind of hanging out there, up at L-2 now.  It's a case that's appealing to a lot of people, which means, of course, I don't see it.  I mean, I get the case (I think), but I don't understand why it's being just eaten up by everyone.

Anyways, everything seems to be sort of revolving around the sudgy wagon...this seems unhealthy to me for developing reads.  But, I haven't really tried to solidify anything, so let's see if I can:
(As mentioned, I think ash's claim makes 3 scum essentially certain.  So, 3/13 scum = base 23 scumScore)

sudgy: I see the arguments against him, but I don't feel like he's scummy enough to be getting this much support for his lynch.  At this point, I am getting a little suspicious of his wagon...It's a slow build, but nothing else seems to be going anywhere.  scumScore: 25

TwistedArcher: first voter on sudgy.  Vocal proponent of his wagon/lynch.  My gut says, scum doesn't usually do that.  But then I think back to Innovation, and the argument with spiritbears.  OTOH, he wasn't anywhere near the actual lynch (none of us were).  Meh, that leaves me a shade on the scummy-side of neutral.  scumScore: 24

yuma: second voter on sudgy.  He seems to be playing a less blinder-focused game (than TA), although he's definitely going in for the sudgy-lynch.  My memory of scum-yuma was him constantly bringing up partner Glooble as scummy.  He's leading town somewhat, and obviously invested in the game (presumably due to his drought of games).  I think you should be wary of yuma, especially if he has over-accurate reads.  (although he could play up that angle and lead a bunch of mislynches too).  I think I'm going to maintain a scum-read on yuma as I do with shraeye...just too hard to detect for me to feel safe with a town-read towards him.  scumScore: 25

ash: third voter on sudgy.  Huge gambit if he's scum.  scum-ash likes huge gambits.  He has also nicely set himself up to not self-vote, and play to a different meta due to his role.  Ash claiming makes me nervous, because he's not being typical (VT) ash.  But it's not necessarily scummy.  And his reaction to it, is what I would expect from town-ash.  It's just, scum-ash is good enough to fake it.  Bah, I dunno...I'll lean town for now.  scumScore: 20

Eevee: fourth vote on sudgy, abandoned for xerxes.  Kind of quiet, but that's sort of normal for Eevee these days.  Not much of a read here at all.  scumScore: 23

nkirbit: defended sudgy, voted him over contradiction, retracted after explanation.  Vote on Voltaire based on a lack of understanding about the possibilities regarding ash's fake-claim, which I'm still not sure he understands, but maybe Galzria's explanation will clarify it?  I don't think the vote-then-retract was entirely townie...it's just a thing, that either nkirbit would do, or scum-nkirbit felt town-nkirbit would do.  Pretty weak read here.  scumScore: 24

mail-mi: is he lurking as hard as he seems to be?  Voltaire had him in the bottom post-count.  I just feel like, town mail-mi always looked scummy, but my only interaction with scum mail-mi has been lurking mail-mi.  Is this really an invalid read (I think some spectators said it was?)  scumScore: 28

Xerxes: also lurking hard, but new.  I'd love to hear more from him, and hope to hear more as days go on.  null here.  scumScore: 23

Voltaire: this feels like town-voltaire to me.  Admittedly, I've never played with scum-Voltaire.  Probably once I've seen you all as scum and town, I'm just going to have no reads at all day1...but for now, I've got a town-read here.  scumScore: 18

Robz: He's been super-quiet, but might be actually getting into the game.  Cool, I was bummed that he basically never got into MXXX.  He seems the same so far as Robz did there (i.e. non-participatory).  scumScore: 23

chairs: I'm not sure how to read chairs.  Has he ever been scum?  I feel like his game-play is still developing, so it's hard to peg him down.  He posts infrequently.  His reads list is weird, half-joking.  I'm not fully sure I understand all of his reads, which is vaguely suspicious (because they're easy to back out of if they're hard to understand).  scumScore: 24

I'm going to vote: chairs.  Not sure if Voltaire still wants his vote there, but I'm willing to join him and see where things go.

I think chairs was scum in CLUE when he got killed by the Hider plan, and again in Harry Potter when he got killed by me and Galz being awesome town.

[ashersky]

Also, on mail-mi, he always lurks.

So 2 questions in that entire mega post from theo.

[ashersky]

Interestingly, scores range from 18-25, with 23 being "average."  Any math to use that to correlate to C9++ rolls?

Seriously though, not the strongest reads, but that's D1 for you.  We need a flip.