I just checked out Samurai's and Ninjas. And winterspartan's lynch-wagon looks like it started on April 14, while game started April 6 (was there an early wagon I missed maybe?) I'm maybe being misunderstood or misunderstanding.
sudgy went to 4 votes, essentially as the first item to happen coming out of RVS. (I guess there was the TwistedArcher thing before that)...And we're like 2 days into the game, right? That just seems quick to hit 4 votes in a 13-player game. I don't think this wagon is heading towards a lynch, it's too early. If this started heading towards a lynch, people would probably oppose it (I would...I think there's more info to get out of day1 if we don't lynch the very first player that does anything scummy right away). I think that's normal though. I'm wondering if it should be analyzed differently in light of that.
If a wagon builds up quickly towards a lynch, then we look at players that are building it with some suspicion, because it looks like they may be trying to quicken a mislynch. Mid-day wagons look like this. They work a lot like end-day wagons, except sometimes you can back off the wagon, see the target as townie, and analyze the wagon as such.
Early-day wagons are a bit of a different beast. No one is reasonably going to push an early-wagon to a premature day end...I just don't see the majority of a town going along with it (outside of something really apparent).
So, how might scum be trying to manipulate such a wagon? Would they vote for it? Push against it because, hey town should oppose this quick lynch? Be ambivalent towards it? Hmm..probably depends on the player. Pushing against it though seems like a good way to "look townie", really regardless of the alignment of the target. It's an early wagon, there are probably misunderstandings, and the lynch probably won't go through. It's maybe not as obvious as the constant town-read scum-guy, but something of a derivative of the same sort. Now, it's worth noting that it looks like something town would do, because town would do it. It's not automatic scum-read or anything, just some thoughts on where it seems likely to find scum in this situation. I'm wondering if that stance might be a good starting place to try to find scum? I dunno, I'll try to look over it sometime, although I won't probably be around a lot this weekend.
You are right about WinterSpartan, I misremembered. I should have double checked what I myself was referencing.
But I don't think that negates my point. Just because it is an early wagon doesn't make it invalid. It might be heading toward a lynch, it might not. I think it is faulty to view a wagon in that way. The way I look at wagons, especially day1, is to see where they go. If they continue to build, if the player continues to act suspicious or other players notice suspicious things about the player it will grow and develop and progress toward a lynch. If the player responds in a townie manner or if other players start acting more suspicious it will die off and not progress towards a lynch. But to say outright before that opportunity presents itself that you "don't think this wagon is heading towards a lynch, it's too early" removes that possibility. Organically the wagon will develop or it will die, but saying that it has no chance of growing kills it off artificially before we have a chance to see where it goes I think. Am I making sense?
Basically what I am saying is don't dismiss the case before it has an opportunity to become a case. Dismissing it before it even has a chance prevents us from seeing what it has the potential to become. Maybe that is nothing, maybe it is something, but I for one want to see it. Hence my vote.
I think I essentially disagree with your viewpoint on day1 wagons? Not sure, I do, but my view of day1 wagons is much more about other players, and very little about the potential lynch. I always vote day1 to gain information. Sometimes I'm also voting to lynch. It's important to at least sometimes want to lynch someone, because otherwise my votes are not genuine, and scum can ignore them. I'll note that I'm always willing to lynch the target also, because it's day1. I want to see what sort of reactions develop to a wagon that's starting up. Some people join the wagon, some people defend the accused, some people ignore it. Ideally some of those reactions will be alignment tells. Those alignment tells largely come from the fact that this wagon
might lead to a lynch. Depending on size, speed of growth, closeness to deadline, and strength of arguments against the player, we can guess how likely the wagon is to lead to a lynch.
Now, scum has 3 major operating principals to my mind regarding wagons: 1. appear like a town-person, 2. arrange a non-scum player to be lynched, 3. enhance suspicion on non-scum players. I think those are all dependent on how viable the wagon is to lead to a lynch.
A wagon this early in the game, has inherently weak arguments and is far from deadline. Both of those things make the wagon unlikely to lead to a lynch. It will probably die on its own. This is important, because scum knows this, and their reactions to the wagon are going to depend on that information. Bussing is inherently safe at this point, because chances are wagon's not leading to a lynch. At the same time, trying to push the wagon to a lynch, might look suspicious, so they'll probably want to avoid that. I dunno exactly what to look for as "scum activity" regarding this wagon.
I would argue that it's inherently different from scum activity towards a wagon that's likely to lead to a lynch. Where they can push it past the brink with little suspicion on town. Or where they have to really decide whether to defend someone that looks suspicious (town or scum-buddy).
Now, it could be that sudgy keeps acting scummy, and this leads to a lynch. Sure, but I think it's very unlikely, and I think scum knows that, and so I think scum will react differently than they will at the end of the day when lynch
is likely, and I think that's important enough to state it explicitly. Hopefully, I'll have some time to do so tonight.
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Topic: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia (Read 95532 times)