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[theorel]

Glad we could have this discussion.
btw, yuma: If I am a vig I will definitely shoot night1  To do otherwise would be to work against town's win-con IMO, which should be obvious from every post I've ever made regarding vig's.  This whole argument started with me saying "vig should ignore advice to contrary and shoot tonight".  I honestly don't see how you would have thought that I would ever commit to not shooting.

There, now we have all variations of the bolded statement available for scum to comb through.

To nkirbit's point on the potential for ash' fake-claim given a 2-man team.  We would eventually know that it's a 2-man team (when we didn't lose), and he would be 100% outed at that time.  It could get him to lylo, but he's insta-lynched at lylo.  So, I think it's worth ignoring that particular possibility, because if it's true we can just lynch ash at the appropriate time.

[yuma]

Glad we could have this discussion.
btw, yuma: If I am a vig I will definitely shoot night1  To do otherwise would be to work against town's win-con IMO, which should be obvious from every post I've ever made regarding vig's.  This whole argument started with me saying "vig should ignore advice to contrary and shoot tonight".  I honestly don't see how you would have thought that I would ever commit to not shooting.

There, now we have all variations of the bolded statement available for scum to comb through.

To nkirbit's point on the potential for ash' fake-claim given a 2-man team.  We would eventually know that it's a 2-man team (when we didn't lose), and he would be 100% outed at that time.  It could get him to lylo, but he's insta-lynched at lylo.  So, I think it's worth ignoring that particular possibility, because if it's true we can just lynch ash at the appropriate time.

If I am the vig, I will not limit my potential utility in a bolded statement, and will instead choose myself what I believe to be the best decision for town, whether that be to shoot or not to shoot N1.

Blanket telling PRs what to do doesn't make sense here. I trust any vig to make their own decisions, since they ARE playing to town's win condition.

well if that is the case then no one else bold any statements... like i said we need 100% for this to work. and we already aren't. w/o it, it is worthless... so whatever.

[yuma]

theorel because you never discussed the implications that a vig not shooting on night1 can have on our impact of figuring out if there is a sk. regardless of whether you think in general shooting on night1 is good or not (I personally am somewhere in the middle most of the time on this, but because I play a little more conservatively lean toward don't shoot) I think if you can see the information that can be gained you would see not shooting--only on night1--would be worth it.

If you think not shooting on night1 is good, then obviously it is worth it.

If you think shooting on night1 is good, then I still think it is worth it. Because what are we trading. A potential kill of an unknown alignment that has the ability to kill mafia/town/PR compared to gaining valuable information about the setup, specifically regarding the serial killer which can then translate into information regarding what sort of a scum team we are up against, we can then translate into limited amount of fake claims that mafia can make.


Basically I feel like the people who have answered negative to this idea have basically said: "I already decided beforehand that shooting on night1 is good, therefore it is good, because I decided beforehand." and haven't really looked at the implications behind what I am trying to suggest.

But again, as I said before, this only works if 100% of the people do it. Obviously we don't have 100%. So this whole point is moot and I am only talking about it because you specifically asked why I thought you might commit to not shooting. I think this conversation needs to be over otherwise.

[mail-mi]

Glad we could have this discussion.
btw, yuma: If I am a vig I will definitely shoot night1  To do otherwise would be to work against town's win-con IMO, which should be obvious from every post I've ever made regarding vig's.  This whole argument started with me saying "vig should ignore advice to contrary and shoot tonight".  I honestly don't see how you would have thought that I would ever commit to not shooting.

There, now we have all variations of the bolded statement available for scum to comb through.

To nkirbit's point on the potential for ash' fake-claim given a 2-man team.  We would eventually know that it's a 2-man team (when we didn't lose), and he would be 100% outed at that time.  It could get him to lylo, but he's insta-lynched at lylo.  So, I think it's worth ignoring that particular possibility, because if it's true we can just lynch ash at the appropriate time.

I think the vig should not shoot night 1 even if you believe so. That way, if there are 2 kills we know there is an SK, or if only 1 it's less possible.

[chairs]

I agree that a SK wouldn't hold off on shooting just to stay hidden.

How do they not have more information? They know more letters of the setup. It doesn't lead to more information on to whether or not there is an SK, since it alternates, and won't affect the decision on whether to shoot or not N1 probably, but how do you they not have more information on the setup?

It's very possibly best for the vig to not shoot, as Robz and others say. But absolutely saying "the vig should never shoot tonight" takes away a possible tool from a town PR. The vig should determine tonight what they believe the best option is.

Every player knows more letters than what's public, unless you are VT, I suppose.  Vig's don't have more information than me, for example.

But I assumed you were talking about "information" in the sense that their decision on who to kill would be based on better info.  Because that's how it read, and that's what is important in discussing the pros and cons of the kill.  The fear is that Town Vig will kill Town Other PR (or VT, I guess) instead of scum, and all without the ability to claim at L-1, etc.

If we have a vig, they know more about the setup than any other Town member right now (because they know ash's claim, they know about the IC, and they know about themselves.

If we assume a vig, by the way, that would put us at 1/3 chance for SK and definite Goon+RB+Godfather scumteam (looking at C9++ setup).

[Galzria]

A 1-shot Vig shooting on N1 does not cause any confusion. 3 kills N1? SK in game. 2 kills N1? The Vig claims on D2. 1 kill N1? We've got some darn good Doctors, and who knows?

The point is, a 1 shot Vig in no way needs to pre-claim. All that does is let a potential SK know if he needs to fire or not. If he withholds N1 because he knows a 1 shot Vig will fire, he can frame that player by then shooting N2 and beyond (or at the very least, cast suspicion on that player).

FoS at anybody who pre-announced what they would do as a one shot vigilante. Stop giving potential SK's more information.

[chairs]

A 1-shot Vig shooting on N1 does not cause any confusion. 3 kills N1? SK in game. 2 kills N1? The Vig claims on D2. 1 kill N1? We've got some darn good Doctors, and who knows?

The point is, a 1 shot Vig in no way needs to pre-claim. All that does is let a potential SK know if he needs to fire or not. If he withholds N1 because he knows a 1 shot Vig will fire, he can frame that player by then shooting N2 and beyond (or at the very least, cast suspicion on that player).

FoS at anybody who pre-announced what they would do as a one shot vigilante. Stop giving potential SK's more information.

...I thought we were only talking about infinite shot vigs?

[theorel]

If we assume a vig, by the way, that would put us at 1/3 chance for SK and definite Goon+RB+Godfather scumteam (looking at C9++ setup).

As before, just because it's 1 of 3 possibilities does not make it a 1/3 chance.  It's still exactly a 50% chance.

My claim should not be percieved to apply if I'm 1-shot.

@yuma/mail-mi: I don't think the benefit is sufficient.  It requires a very specific scenario to occur to matter.  In particular we have to have exactly 2 kills, a SK claiming vigilante OR vig with no SK, and insufficient PRs otherwise to enable it to be true alongside a fake-claim.  Assuming ash's claim is true (which I do assume), that's a rather small window of opportunity for a SK.

[chairs]

If we assume a vig, by the way, that would put us at 1/3 chance for SK and definite Goon+RB+Godfather scumteam (looking at C9++ setup).

As before, just because it's 1 of 3 possibilities does not make it a 1/3 chance.  It's still exactly a 50% chance.

My claim should not be percieved to apply if I'm 1-shot.

@yuma/mail-mi: I don't think the benefit is sufficient.  It requires a very specific scenario to occur to matter.  In particular we have to have exactly 2 kills, a SK claiming vigilante OR vig with no SK, and insufficient PRs otherwise to enable it to be true alongside a fake-claim.  Assuming ash's claim is true (which I do assume), that's a rather small window of opportunity for a SK.

...I'm curious how you come to this conclusion that it's 50% chance.

[Voltaire]

...I'm curious how you come to this conclusion that it's 50% chance.

It's the way C9++ works. Look at how the letters are generated. They're not all equally likely.

[theorel]

It's always a 50% chance.  In this particular case (i.e. 3 unknown rolls):
chances of 0 T results = 25% (.5)^2
chances of 2 T results = 25%. (.5)^2
Chances of 1 T result = 25% + 25% = 50%.  (TR or RT which are mutually exclusive events)


This is true regardless of how many "roll"s you want to make, as long as it's symmetric.

[theorel]

that should really be "as long as it's alternating".

[chairs]

...I'm curious how you come to this conclusion that it's 50% chance.

It's the way C9++ works. Look at how the letters are generated. They're not all equally likely.

Math below assumes we have a Vig, since right now we're discussing Vig.

There's a 50/50 chance that each coin will flip T or not-T.  to get an SK we need exactly 1 coin to flip T (we don't care what other power role(s) are, just whether or not it's a T).

We don't care which of our coins flips T, only that exactly 1 does.

A little bit of math courtesy of Wolfram Alpha states this means we have a 37.5% chance of an SK if we have an infinite vig and ashersky's claim is legitimate.

If you are an infinite vig, keep in mind there is a 37.5% chance of SK.

[chairs]

It's always a 50% chance.  In this particular case (i.e. 3 unknown rolls):
chances of 0 T results = 25% (.5)^2
chances of 2 T results = 25%. (.5)^2
Chances of 1 T result = 25% + 25% = 50%.  (TR or RT which are mutually exclusive events)


This is true regardless of how many "roll"s you want to make, as long as it's symmetric.

Wolfram alpha tells me your math is wrong.  See http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2F3+coisn+flipping+heads - I'm willing to allow that this is really irrelevant until/unless we have a claimed vig, however.

[theorel]

There are only 2 coins...

[Robz888]

Man, I hate math.

Stop listening to the math hucksters; listen to me.

No shooting.

Okay.

Let's move on.

Someone claimed soemthing, I here? I can't figure out what...

[Voltaire]

Someone claimed soemthing, I here? I can't figure out what...

Can't tell if you're serious or not. Ash claimed 1-shot Doc.

[chairs]

There are only 2 coins...

...wait, what?

...

...god I'm retarded.

[Robz888]

Someone claimed soemthing, I here? I can't figure out what...

Can't tell if you're serious or not. Ash claimed 1-shot Doc.

'

I'm serious, I saw it being discussed, but couldn't find the initial post.

Well vote: Ash then.

[sudgy]

Nothing else was going on, huh? There was a wagon forming on TA!! Why would you want to revert us back to rvs when ash, yuma and TA had just gotten the game going?

Voting someone for not following the norms also annoys me greatly, even if it's my frustration leaking through, I'm going to vote: sudgy.

That you realized you got caught of scummy behavior and tried to make it all a joke to escape the suspicion is also a believable scum narrative for me.

I thought the wagon on TA was still RVS too...

I think Sudgy's innocent because he was pointing out correct flaws in Ash's analysis, so who should I vote for?

I will let you know for future reference, this is a terrible reason to think someone is town.  Mafia would do it too, to seem more towny.  My scum philosophy it to act like town, even when it hurts.

[Voltaire]

I'm serious, I saw it being discussed, but couldn't find the initial post.

Well vote: Ash then.

What do you make of the point that it's a claim that, if he's scum, is guaranteed to get him found out?

[Eevee]

Not being interested in theory or math is pretty bad in this case, Robz. Ash's claim is pretty darn towny.

[Twistedarcher]

I'm serious, I saw it being discussed, but couldn't find the initial post.

Well vote: Ash then.

What do you make of the point that it's a claim that, if he's scum, is guaranteed to get him found out?

It's not guaranteed, but it's very likely. But not 100% guaranteed.

[Twistedarcher]

Sudgy, I'm pretty sure the wagon on me was not RVS.

[Robz888]

Not being interested in theory or math is pretty bad in this case, Robz. Ash's claim is pretty darn towny.

Oh,I agree! But I don't like Day 1 claiming. He must be punished.