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[yuma]

Good catch yuma.  I thought Doc and Cop rolls were the same.

Look at us agreeing and stuff!

[Eevee]

Good catch yuma.  I thought Doc and Cop rolls were the same.

Look at us agreeing and stuff!

One of you must be scum!

[theorel]

@ash: Annnd...I'm 90% sure I've had significant parts of that conversation before.  PRs have more information about the set-up, (yep covered that before).  Scum knows more about the set-up than us (yep done that one too)

I've also stated before that claims requiring 2 non-T rolls are stronger than claims requiring 1 non-T roll.  I've also discussed probability of SK and how that's impacted by known rolls.

I disagree with your views on claiming generally.  I think that a 1-shot doc claim is actually pretty good here, though.  It does bring up the question of how likely it is to be true.  In order for it to be false, you have to have been willing as scum to claim a counter-claimable role.  One that isn't worth outing to scum.  After further consideration, I don't think it's substantially stronger in this case from requiring a doc (converse to what I said last-time I played this set-up), because that requires a mass-claim to counter, one which we are reluctant to do if there's a doctor out there...because outing the doc is clearly bad.  But either a counter-claim or a mass-claim could prove it false...and that makes me essentially believe you.

So, I think it's fair to assume we have at least 3 non-T rolls.  Which as pointed out guarantees scum a roleblocker.  Also guarantees scum has 3 members. 
Probabilities at this point actually look like this:
TTTT=.0625
TTT=.25
TT=.375
T=.25
0T=.0625
The last 3 have a godfather, so there's a 68.75% chance of a godfather.
There's exactly a 50% chance of a SK (I think there is always exactly 50% chance?  I may have computed that wrong last game of this I played).

[theorel]

Should we talk about vigilantes too?  I mean I've posted all these thoughts elsewhere also.

1-shot vigs should hold their shots for later.  I think your best role use is to claim whenever you think an IC should claim, and then you can essentially prove yourself (can't be counter-claimed)

If you're an infinite-shot vig, then you shouldn't listen to Galz and Robz, and you should actually go ahead and shoot in order to improve town's winchance.  Galz and Robz will say you shouldn't shoot because you're likely to hit town, and they don't like that, because they really want to have one more lynch rather than your 2 shots.

How about days left (also previously covered)?
With a town of 13 and 3 mafia, we have 9/10 town and 0/1 SK.
With no SK: we can have 7 deaths before we lose, which means 4 mislynches to lose if we don't no-lynch, and don't block a kill.  (i.e. 3 allowed and we can still win)
With a SK: we only get like 5 deaths before we lose (because 4 town v. 3 mafia + SK is essentially a loss), but SK could hit scum at night.  IF SK always hits town different from mafia (which is just a worst-case scenario), we get 2 mislynches to lose.  Obviously there's a lot of variability here though depending on how the SK does, and when/if he dies.  Anyways, SK makes it a much more dangerous game for the town, since there's less room for error.

Note: SK applies to vig except we don't lose at 5v3.  So, we get 3 mislynches and 2 vig-kills.  If we have a SK and vig, this could be a very quick game, but really we still get 2 mislynches in addition to the vig-kills.

[XerxesPraelor]

So just lynch whoever you think is suspicious?
Okay - I retract my vote until more people talk.

[Eevee]

So just lynch whoever you think is suspicious?

That's the gist of it!

Another suggestion I'd have for a newer player, if you are about to claim something about your role, really think twice before hitting send.

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 1.2:

Robz888 (2): Sudgy, Theorel
Yuma (1): mail-mi
XerxesPraelor (1): Voltaire
Ashersky(1): Nkirbit
Voltaire (2): Twistedarcher, Ashersky
 
Not Voting (6): Eevee, Robz888, Yuma, Chairs, Xerses, Galzria

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on October, 19 at 8:00 p.m. Forum time.

[XerxesPraelor]

Okay, Voltaire's voting for me, so I'm voting for him.
Vote: Voltaire

[Voltaire]

Okay, Voltaire's voting for me, so I'm voting for him.
Vote: Voltaire

That's how you do it!

Has chairs posted here yet? vote: chairs

[Twistedarcher]

Analyzing the setup becomes much, much easier after one or two flips. I'd say that a massclaim is better on later days, because scum have less places to hide. It's especially hard to solve until we know whether or not we have a Serial Killer -- at that point, the setup could be one letter off, and we have absolutely no idea if it's because there's a Serial Killer, or because someone is lying.

I disagree that Vig should shoot N1. Especially in a game where there's essentially about a 50% chance of a Serial Killer (there's a 50% chance, right?) If you shoot, and you're wrong, you're potentially down to 9 players on D2 without any scum dead. Which is not a great situation.

[mail-mi]

Analyzing the setup becomes much, much easier after one or two flips. I'd say that a massclaim is better on later days, because scum have less places to hide. It's especially hard to solve until we know whether or not we have a Serial Killer -- at that point, the setup could be one letter off, and we have absolutely no idea if it's because there's a Serial Killer, or because someone is lying.

I disagree that Vig should shoot N1. Especially in a game where there's essentially about a 50% chance of a Serial Killer (there's a 50% chance, right?) If you shoot, and you're wrong, you're potentially down to 9 players on D2 without any scum dead. Which is not a great situation.

Yeah, I think this is the best path.

[Robz888]

If you're an infinite-shot vig, then you shouldn't listen to Galz and Robz, and you should actually go ahead and shoot in order to improve town's winchance.  Galz and Robz will say you shouldn't shoot because you're likely to hit town, and they don't like that, because they really want to have one more lynch rather than your 2 shots.

Vigs, ignore this. Do not shoot. In this same setup, vigs have greatly damaged town. And in many other setups. No shooting please. Thanks.

Vote: theorel

[sudgy]

If you're an infinite-shot vig, then you shouldn't listen to Galz and Robz, and you should actually go ahead and shoot in order to improve town's winchance.  Galz and Robz will say you shouldn't shoot because you're likely to hit town, and they don't like that, because they really want to have one more lynch rather than your 2 shots.

Vigs, ignore this. Do not shoot. In this same setup, vigs have greatly damaged town. And in many other setups. No shooting please. Thanks.

Vote: theorel

Vote: theorel

[mail-mi]

If you're an infinite-shot vig, then you shouldn't listen to Galz and Robz, and you should actually go ahead and shoot in order to improve town's winchance.  Galz and Robz will say you shouldn't shoot because you're likely to hit town, and they don't like that, because they really want to have one more lynch rather than your 2 shots.

Vigs, ignore this. Do not shoot. In this same setup, vigs have greatly damaged town. And in many other setups. No shooting please. Thanks.

Vote: theorel

Vote: theorel

Wagon! vote: theorel

[theorel]

If you're an infinite-shot vig, then you shouldn't listen to Galz and Robz, and you should actually go ahead and shoot in order to improve town's winchance.  Galz and Robz will say you shouldn't shoot because you're likely to hit town, and they don't like that, because they really want to have one more lynch rather than your 2 shots.

Vigs, ignore this. Do not shoot. In this same setup, vigs have greatly damaged town. And in many other setups. No shooting please. Thanks.

Vote: theorel

In this same set-up, vigs have never damaged town.  In MIV (modified C9++) the (1-shot) vig didn't shoot, and we lost.
In MXVII (Buffy) the 1-shot vig killed mafia, and helped bring the game to a quicker ending...it's entirely possible that we wouldn't have lynched Frisk at that juncture...but he eliminated the possibility.
In MXXIV (ninjas) I didn't follow.  Looking just now, I see that the vig tried to shoot twice and failed both times, due to being roleblocked by his target?  I have no idea how this actually all played out, and whether it was a net benefit to town.

Robz' statement is verifiably false, because he doesn't know the set-up of games he plays.  I'm betting he's thinking of the JK9++ game...

Now, in other set-ups, vigs may arguably have damaged town.  Yuma shooting the IC, and ash shooting the hider's target (JK9++) were both potentially negatives to town.  Neither of those was actually lost by the vig though, they were lost by bad town-play and good scum-play.  (Ultimately, by Robz and Galzria each voting for me in a lylo situation.  To clarify I include myself in the "bad town-play" part of that because I was the voted player).  In both cases, town lynched scum immediately after the mistaken vig-action before eventually losing.  These are the only 2 games I think of, because these are the ones I was in.  Are there others?  I'm interested now, so I'm going to check.

Vig shots hurting town are (IMO) a purely psychological thing.  It's like viewing mislynches as ultimately harmful to town.  They aren't, town deaths just don't hurt town that badly (except when they're strong pro-town voices being killed off).  If you shoot twice we lose 1 lynch.  That could be the lynch that catches scum, OR you could hit scum and we could be on our way to victory.  I think there is likely a psychological effect against scum.

[Twistedarcher]

I think it all comes down to whether you think Vigs are more or less likely to hit scum than lynches are. I agree that it's a psychological effect, and part of it is natural (other town members hate having decisions taken out of their hands and placed into the vigilante's hands).

In Samurai and Ninjas, we got really lucky with the Vig. Vig was going to shoot town RB, but town RB blocked vig two nights in a row. In the end, it helped us narrow down who scum was, but we were very close to having a town PR killed N1.

[Twistedarcher]

Although, if the Vig thinks he will be able to live past N1 or N2, holding off is almost certainly better. If you have 2 shots to replace a lynch, then you want those shots to come later. So if you have a choice, N2 and N3 is almost certainly superior to N1 and N2.

[theorel]

Arguable.  It leaves town at even number on the last day (i.e. 5v3) and so all 5 townies need to vote scum.  After lynch they go to 4v3, and vig can save them if he picks right.  I prefer vig shoots nights 1 and 2, so you don't end up in a 5v3 situation.  (See MXXIII as an example why this is a bad idea)

Okay, Looking back through the games:
MXXIX (Dr Who): town has vig who shoots every night.  Town wins.  (There was lots of stuff going on here like vig and SK intersecting, no reveals of nightkill alignments, but ultimately vig shot, town won).
MXXVIII: weird extra night-lynch-kinda thing.  Town used it to good effect later in the game.
MXXIV: vig shot every night, town won.  (yes he tried to shoot town and was blocked...the point is that he did shoot, and it did NOT actually hurt town)
MXXIII: 2-shot vig shot night2-town lost.
MXIX: 1-shot vig existed, didn't shoot, town lost.
MXVIII: 1-shot day-vig.  Shot town (Day4).  Town lost.
MXVII: one-shot Vig shot mafia(N2), town won.
MXVI: looks like one-shot vig shot mafia(N3), town still lost.
MXV: vig died N0.  town won.
MXIV: day-vig? didn't shoot, town lost.
MXII: vig shot hider target and died N1.  Town eventually lost.
MIX: vig shot mafia/werewolf night1 (looks like?) shot town after that.  SK eventually won.
MVIII: 2-shot vig shot IC night 3.  This was widely regarded as a mistake. town lost.
MVI: one-shot weak vig killed mafia and was saved by doctor (N2).  Town won.
MV: insane doctor (i.e. vig) shot mafia for the win. town won.
MIV: one-shot vig didn't shoot. town lost.

I dunno, I'm not seeing this crazy huge negative impact vigilantes have from shooting.  Not shooting is just as bad.

If we eliminate the one-shots we have only games where the vig shot every night they were alive.  In every one of these games, the vig shot Night1.  (I think these are V, IX, XII, XXIV, XXIX.  town won 3, SK won once, mafia won once.)

I think we probably need more data points...but here's how it works out so far (I'm logging the full-vigs that shot every night as night1, since they're the only ones that have done it):
Vig Shot: Night 1/Day 2  Night 2/Day 3   Night 3/Day 4   Didn't Shoot
Town Wins:     3                   2                     0                    1
Scum Wins:     2                   1                     3                    3

(Note: I didn't include MXXVIII. MXV I counted as vig didn't shoot, since he didn't have a chance.)

[theorel]

Hopefully that's all accurate.  I might have made an error somewhere though.

[ashersky]

I shot RB means full RB, like doc.  Worth thinking about claiming if you are one.

[ashersky]

Also, for the millionth time, I did NOT shoot the Hider target.  I shot Cayvie in JK9++.  The Hider hid behind me and mafia NKed me.

[chairs]

Okay, Voltaire's voting for me, so I'm voting for him.
Vote: Voltaire

That's how you do it!

Has chairs posted here yet? vote: chairs

OMGUS vote: Voltaire

Glad I was browsing to check on the dueling towns thread!

[yuma]

On vig discussion I think it comes back to a high reward/high risk debate. When it helps, it is awesome. When it hurts, it hurts awful... this coming from me who shot Eevee in MVIII.

I do think one point has been neglected in the discussion about vigs though. And it is the main point that I think separates it the most from lynching. Basically with a vig you have the potential to shoot an unclaimed PR. With lynching there is generally enough time between L-1 and the hammer for someone to claim. This allows town to consdier the claim and determine whether they want to risk killing off a PR. Not so with vigs (see exception below). Vigs shoot and then the player is dead (especially night vigs, day vigs don't work this way and I think are more powerful to town as such, but more rarely seen because of this). There is no chance for him to claim. Ok... well hitting a PR isn't going to happen that often. Maybe. But often enough that it is bad. Remember... I shot Eevee (an unclaimed PR).

Exception: once everyone has claimed, vigs are much more powerful. They can (with the help of town) determine whether or not to shoot claimed VTs or claimed PRs depending on the context of the claims and the known setup. In addition vigs can be used to shoot a player if town chooses wrong in a claim/counterclaim situation.

End story: I think vigs are useful, but are less useful day1 when the vig himself has less information to work with. If I am a vig, I am not going to be shooting tonight, I might consider shooting tomorrow... it depends. On days thereon out I am more likely to shoot.

But I think shooting night1 just isn't smart. This is especially true in games that might have a SK. If the vig 100% doesn't shoot night1 and we have 2 kills we are guaranteed to have a SK. I think this information alone is reason enough to not have the vig shoot and it is the reason I am asking everyone to make this statement:

If I am the vig, I will not shoot Night1.

If everyone makes this statement and lives up to it and there are two kills tonight, we have a SK. If we don't, we probably don't have a SK (yes roleblocking/or SK just not shooting for WIFOM purposes). And if we do have a SK we are that much closer to solving the setup. Again this only works if every single person in this game agrees to this statement. So, I am going to be hounding you to make this statement and if you are a vig and make this statement and don't live up to... don't expect to be believed come claim time... because you won't.

[ashersky]

If I were the Vig, I would absolutely shoot tonight.

But, I'm the 1-Shot Doctor.  So I can't shoot.

[yuma]

If I were the Vig, I would absolutely shoot tonight.

So you can potentially shoot the cop that you need for the follow-the-cop plan to work... I just don't see it. I really don't! If we think that is a possibility why screw it up with such a dumb move?