Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[ashersky]

I concede I was wrong about follow-the-cop.  Don't claim.  No idea why I didn't think Cop would just be roleblocked.

Once the scum roleblocker is dead, then yes, follow-the-cop.

We have M and at least DD confirmed.

MDDXXXX
MDDDDXX
MMMDDXX
MMMDDDD

Voltaire picked up one I missed as far as TOWN roles go, but I was focused on SCUM roles.  And the existence of MMMDDDD does not change anything I said about 5 possible scum setups.

Voltaire focusing on town roles instead of scum roles reads as scum looking for the town power roles.

vote: Voltaire

[yuma]

I will say that I am not so sure about the Masons claiming though...

As a mason previously in this setup, with theorel, I feel that we were a major boon to the town by staying silent. We both knew each other were our partners and put each other toward the bottom of our reads (but not necessarily at the very bottom) so that if one of us died we would be able to show that we were partners.

In the end us not revealing our PR until later in the game helped with PoE. I believe that because we lynched scum (and that wagon had neither theorel or I on it) we were able to determine that the off wagon must have scum out of like 3 other players... and low and behold there was 2 scum there and we were able to handily win the game (Galz helping out as a cop I believe also helped matters immensely) but basically, morale of the story is that masons are more powerful when they remain secret for a period of time.

It is the same with ICs.

ICs that can choose when they become public are much more powerful to town that beginning of day1 revealed ICs... why? Because town is then able to analyze any wagons that might have built up on someone that was confirmed to be town while that player is still alive. Yes, there is the risk of that player dying in the night (ala Eevee in MVIII) but I think in the case of masons that risk is worth it as their mason partner can argue that they were partners very easily...

[ashersky]

Other reason I was hesitant to post: the more we talk about this, the more likely one of us derps whether or not we're a PR, and if we are, which one. Hence my comment that ash was fishing, and to what end I could not tell.

There's no "derping" of PRs.  You claim, breadcrumb, or hide.  That it.

I fully support any PR wanting to claim for solving the set-up.  Plus, we can get fakeclaims figured out that way.  Early claiming almost forces scum to go with VT, since too many PR claims and they're caught.

Again, scummy behavior from Voltaire.

[ashersky]

Right now, for every member of town that is NOT Galzria, the lynch pool is 11 people.

If masons claim, for every member of town that is NOT Galzria or Masons, the lynch pool is 9 people.

If you believe me, and another doctor, the lynch pool is 7.

That's pretty darn good POE to me.

[ashersky]

Plus, with 7 lynchables, if we have any Vs, we can vig some of those seven, lynch some seven, and win.

[Voltaire]

I actually think that there's a chance fullclaiming could be right, for the reason ash states. Yuma (and IC Galz I guess) what do you think about your preference theoretical masons stay quiet versus full-claiming D1 potentially catching scum off-guard?

and there's the vote on me! This sure is a fun day one. Ash, you are voting me because you have how town would react and how scum would react wrong. Or they overlap, and you're not accounting for that. Do you remember when Galz was one of your scummy reactions to your plan in HP, and it turns out he was a town PR? I see no evidence that player's reactions to your plans actually gives any indication of their alignment.

[ashersky]

I actually think that there's a chance fullclaiming could be right, for the reason ash states. Yuma (and IC Galz I guess) what do you think about your preference theoretical masons stay quiet versus full-claiming D1 potentially catching scum off-guard?

and there's the vote on me! This sure is a fun day one. Ash, you are voting me because you have how town would react and how scum would react wrong. Or they overlap, and you're not accounting for that. Do you remember when Galz was one of your scummy reactions to your plan in HP, and it turns out he was a town PR? I see no evidence that player's reactions to your plans actually gives any indication of their alignment.

Says scrambling scum.  If you are a town PR, feel free to claim and clear yourself, like Galz did in HP.  Worked there, didn't it?

And this isn't a plan.  This is fact.  This is a semi-open set-up that can be solved.  No crazy plans here.  Just laying out the information as it is.

The presence of a 1-Shot Doctor narrows the field a lot.  So does Masons, 1-Shot Cop, and 1-Shot Doc.  Those all require >1 of a letter to exist.  That really helps narrowing down the stuff.

We've already pinned scum's team down a bit.  Knowing the likelihood of a SK, or if there is absolutely a Godfather, would be fantastic for Town D1.

Anyone who fights against that notion is at best anti-town and at worst scum.  That's why I'm voting for you.

[Voltaire]

ash...I am agreeing with you.

[sudgy]

Seriously, I have no idea what's going on.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9%2B%2B

[Voltaire]

The reason I'm not claiming right away is because out of an abundance of caution I want to give someone the opportunity to make a case against it, if there is one to be made, in case ash is scum and leading us down a terrible rabbit hole.

[Galzria]

Ash (and anybody else interested in looking this up):

What games previously used this setup?
What were the outcomes of those games?
What did town do in the games they won in relation to various claiming.

Ashersky in particular: You said town dominated those games, but did not mass-claim early. Why would town want to do something different here? Wouldn't it be SCUM that want to shake things up?

[yuma]

Ash (and anybody else interested in looking this up):

What games previously used this setup?
What were the outcomes of those games?
What did town do in the games they won in relation to various claiming.

C9++ games

MXVII http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=5395.0 Town win... Hit scum day1. No real claiming until Galz claimed 1-shot cop I believe, but at that point we were very close to winning
MXXIV http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7546.0 Town win... Hit scum day1. Claiming day2 I believe... ended up helping town pretty much, but again I think town would have won the game based off interactions more than anything else.

was this game MIV http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2774.0 a C9++? It looks very similar, but I don't think volt every specifically said it was ... mafia win ... I know nothing about this game, wasn't in it, nor did i watch it.

JK9++ games (similar concept)

MXII http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=4680.0 Mafia win  .... debacle with claiming at about day3. Really bad claims all around and scum was able to completely manipulate everything to get the win.

I believe those are the only games that used this setup...

I do see where ash is coming from with his claim. But really only his claim. A 1-shot Doc claim does help, because it isn't a very super powerful role, but it does clarify a lot in terms of the setup and helps us pinpoint it w/o giving scum too much info and w/o making himself to be an obvious target for a night kill. It is also really bad for mafia to fake claim, because if we get to a point where no one claims Doc, then he is obvscum (further down the road when mass claim becomes a thing)... right now I don't think we should have more claims... maybe masons. I am torn on that one. Anything else might help mafia pinpoint a cop if we have one.

So at this point I am treating ash as town. I don't see mafia making that claim and I think I like it, but I don't want anyone else to claim at this point... at least not until we are able to eliminate the mafia roleblocker.

[ashersky]

galz, yuma answered the "which games" question.

I modded both of those C9++ games.  The reason town won handily in both: incredibly good play by the IC and hitting scum D1.

In Buffy, scum just didn't do great.  They lurked, didn't hammer town when they could have, and had to sub in someone on D2 who promptly got lynched.

In Samurai and Ninja, again, great IC work and shoddy scum play.


Why do we want to claim?  I think it is actually the easiest way to win.  You and I agree -- on D1, POE is way better than "scum hunting" because we have so little to go on.  I'm whittling down the POE options quickly.

The other 1-shots I mentions, plus masons, do that as well.  Let's trap 3 scum in a little pool and just kill all the fish.

[Galzria]

galz, yuma answered the "which games" question.

I modded both of those C9++ games.  The reason town won handily in both: incredibly good play by the IC and hitting scum D1.

In Buffy, scum just didn't do great.  They lurked, didn't hammer town when they could have, and had to sub in someone on D2 who promptly got lynched.

In Samurai and Ninja, again, great IC work and shoddy scum play.


Why do we want to claim?  I think it is actually the easiest way to win.  You and I agree -- on D1, POE is way better than "scum hunting" because we have so little to go on.  I'm whittling down the POE options quickly.

The other 1-shots I mentions, plus masons, do that as well.  Let's trap 3 scum in a little pool and just kill all the fish.

If it's so easily solvable, why do you think it's still such a popular setup on mafiascum?

[Voltaire]

Yeah, I think C9++ is as broken as the Hider Plan.

[sudgy]

The reason I'm not claiming right away is because out of an abundance of caution I want to give someone the opportunity to make a case against it, if there is one to be made, in case ash is scum and leading us down a terrible rabbit hole.

...This almost looks like a claim.

NO CLAIMING, NO MENTIONING MAYBE CLAIMING, ETC.  I can see telling others to claim (for good reasons, at least), but not claiming without good reason.

[Robz888]

Unreasonably strong convictions ash is town!ash. He may know how to fake it by now in theory, but I've never seen him do that in action.

I actually don't think massclaim in this setup is the wildest thing ever, but it did go horribly wrong in Mafia XII, and I really don't like this move toward constant claiming of everything immediately. Let's just play the game!

[ashersky]

galz, yuma answered the "which games" question.

I modded both of those C9++ games.  The reason town won handily in both: incredibly good play by the IC and hitting scum D1.

In Buffy, scum just didn't do great.  They lurked, didn't hammer town when they could have, and had to sub in someone on D2 who promptly got lynched.

In Samurai and Ninja, again, great IC work and shoddy scum play.


Why do we want to claim?  I think it is actually the easiest way to win.  You and I agree -- on D1, POE is way better than "scum hunting" because we have so little to go on.  I'm whittling down the POE options quickly.

The other 1-shots I mentions, plus masons, do that as well.  Let's trap 3 scum in a little pool and just kill all the fish.

If it's so easily solvable, why do you think it's still such a popular setup on mafiascum?

1)  I don't think it is easily solvable.
2)  I have no knowledge of mafiascum other than the wiki for roles/setups/etc.

I think that, with the way that roles are dependent on number of rolls, certain roles help you "solve" the set-up faster.

My 1-Shot Doc is the PERFECT example.  It takes 2 Ds or 4Ds to have one.  It can easily be counterclaimed (a second 1-Shot Doc is impossible, no other real doc, etc.).  That's why 1-Shot Cop/RB are the same.  That's why Masons with IC is the same.

You still have to believe the claims, you still have to root out the liars amongst the claimants and VTs.  It isn't solved.  But man, it's way easier to know where to look.

[Eevee]

Ash is so quick to deal out scum reads himself, I'm surprised no one is calling him out for trying to out the cop.

Well, yuma's point about this specific claim making way more sense from town makes me lean towards believing ash anyways.

[ashersky]

Actually no, I was right.  1-shot cop should claim.  Because then we have a guaranteed real cop, but 1-shot has to get roleblocked, so it is like blocking the blocker to ensure the real cop isn't.

I am brilliant.

[ashersky]

Actually no, I was right.  1-shot cop should claim.  Because then we have a guaranteed real cop, but 1-shot has to get roleblocked, so it is like blocking the blocker to ensure the real cop isn't.

I am brilliant.

In case this phone post wasn't clear:

1) 1-Shot Cop claims
2) 1-Shot Doctor protects him on N1
3) Mafia must roleblock me and kill him
4) But then the Full Cop gets an investigation in
5) And the Full Doc gets a protection in...of me?  Or the 1-Shot Cop?  Or the IC.  Ah, great WIFOM there.
6) So then, Mafia must roleblock 1-Shot Cop and kill me, or someone else
7) Still, Full Cop gets an investigation

D2, 1-Shot Cop probably gets to claim no result, because mafia would have to roleblock him to be safe.  I'm probably dead, but maybe not, since I'm VT after using my shot for this place.  But so is the 1-Shot Cop.  And then, you get IC + 2 VTs out of the lynch pool, and the IC survives to D2.

[XerxesPraelor]

In any case, we really shouldn't be lynching anyone at this stage. We can wait until the cops get their info and then decide to do something. Vote: No Lynch

[yuma]

Actually no, I was right.  1-shot cop should claim.  Because then we have a guaranteed real cop, but 1-shot has to get roleblocked, so it is like blocking the blocker to ensure the real cop isn't.

I am brilliant.

I would agree with this, but I think you must admit that the chances of having a 1-shot cop and a cop are much smaller... because as you say we either have MDD or MMMDD (here assuming you are telling the truth and we have a 1-shot doc and a doc) To have a 1-shot cop and a regular cop we would need to have CCC or CCCCC.

So yes we could have MDDCCCX. But we can't have MMMDDCCC or MMMDDCCCCC... too many letters. And we can't have MDDCCCCC, again too many letters.

if we have 2 docs and a 1-shot doc then we would have DDDD, making it impossible to have a 1-shot cop and a cop as DDDDMCCC is too many letters

this of course is the slight problem with claiming, as we have clued mafia into the fact that it is much less likely that we have the above, especially as they know their own powers, etc, etc...


Oh... I think I see the fallacy of your argument here ash... a 1-shot cop actually tells us very little, at least compared to a 1-shot doc. From the wiki:

"Cop Roles
C = 1-Shot Cop
CC = Cop
CCC = Cop, 1-Shot Cop
CCCC = 2 Cops
CCCCC = 2 Cops, 1-Shot Cop
CCCCCC = 3 Cops
Cops are guaranteed to be sane."

C= 1-shot cop. So just because we have a 1-shot cop doesn't mean anything in regard to a regular cop. It isn't like doctor which works like:

"Doctor Roles
D = Doctor
DD = Doctor + 1-Shot Doctor
DDD = 2 Doctors
DDDD = 2 Doctors + 1-Shot Doctor
DDDDD = 3 Doctors"

So again, no cop claiming until the roleblocker is dead yo!

[ashersky]

Good catch yuma.  I thought Doc and Cop rolls were the same.

[yuma]

In any case, we really shouldn't be lynching anyone at this stage. We can wait until the cops get their info and then decide to do something. Vote: No Lynch

Hi Xerses! Welcome to the game, hope you enjoy it.

This idea is often brought up by newer players and is actually a pretty good idea at first glance. However, many, many games have established that it is a bad idea. For one, we don't know that we have any cops. Second, lynches is how town gets information. Lynching forces mafia into making decisions and being on or off a lynch wagon, thus having a lynch is good. Even at its worst it exchanges a town player for more infomation and the hope of lynching mafia day2. Remember town's purpose here isn't for all of us to survive to the end, it is to kill off the mafia before they overrun us.

A no lynch is bad because look at where it puts us tomorrow.

There are 13 alive right now. If we no lynch and if there isn't a vig or SK (just for simplification purposes) there will be 12 alive right now (but one less will be town, because mafia will kill a townie during the night). So tomorrow we will be back where we are today, with no information gained from a lynch and a dead townie... Maybe we should no lynch again? Now we are in the same spot with 11 alive and 2 dead townies. Not good.

Yes, if we have a cop, it might be worth it, but we don't know if we have a cop or not. There is the risk we might lynch a PR. That is a risk, generally we allow people to claim before we lynch them and can weight their claims accordingly... We have been dumb in the past and lynched PRs.... but I think we are getting better.

And last of all, we have lynched mafia day1. Not super often, but often enough and when it happens it puts town in a huge advantage. An advantage that is worth the potential risk of losing a townie or even a PR day1 I think...

So, ultimately no lynch isn't great for town. Lynching is almost always good for town, it is how we win the game.