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Author Topic: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia  (Read 94626 times)

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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #100 on: October 09, 2013, 06:11:50 pm »

ash, I don't see how you can know that scum has a roleblocker without claiming you're a mason. Having an IC means either M or MMM but that's all we know. Some of us will know more, but those would only be those of us with PRs. If it's MMM at most it can be TTTT which does mean scum has to have a roleblocker. Are you claiming you're a mason?

I think your point was to make someone point this out, which means you're fishing. For what, I do not know. What that means for your alignment, well, I don't know.

Does no one read what I write?

There are 7 letters.  At most, there are at most 4 Ts in this game.  Let me break the math down for you all:

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

5/5 chances of a Roleblocker.  5/5 = 100%.
2/5 chances of a Serial Killer.  That's because there are 5 possible scum setups, and 2 of them list Serial Killer.  Where there are 2 of something in 5 total, that's 2/5.
3/5 chances of a Godfather.  Again, 5 possible setups, 3 list Godfather.

If Masons are in the game, we have, at most, 2 Ts.

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

So 1/3 SK and 100% for both RB and GF.




That is how simple math works.

man, that's so not how simple math works.  P(0T) =/= P(1T) and so on.  If you flip a coin 100 times, you're much much more likely to see 50 heads than you are to see 10 heads, for example.

The odds are calculable, but not this simple.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #101 on: October 09, 2013, 06:15:44 pm »

Town PRs did NOT take into account how much extra information that actually gave them.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #102 on: October 09, 2013, 06:16:52 pm »

man, that's so not how simple math works.  P(0T) =/= P(1T) and so on.  If you flip a coin 100 times, you're much much more likely to see 50 heads than you are to see 10 heads, for example.

The odds are calculable, but not this simple.

Really?  If you know that there are 5 possible outcomes, and 3 of the 5 possible outcomes contain X, then it is incorrect to say you have a 3/5 chance of X?  Really?  How did I finish college?  I'm such a fucking idiot.  Shoot me in the fucking head.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #103 on: October 09, 2013, 06:17:49 pm »

man, that's so not how simple math works.  P(0T) =/= P(1T) and so on.  If you flip a coin 100 times, you're much much more likely to see 50 heads than you are to see 10 heads, for example.

The odds are calculable, but not this simple.

Really?  If you know that there are 5 possible outcomes, and 3 of the 5 possible outcomes contain X, then it is incorrect to say you have a 3/5 chance of X?  Really?  How did I finish college?  I'm such a fucking idiot.  Shoot me in the fucking head.

Because it's not a uniform distribution -- all 5 possible outcomes are not equally likely
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #104 on: October 09, 2013, 06:18:45 pm »

So...you're claiming a TT PR? How is this a good idea?

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #105 on: October 09, 2013, 06:18:54 pm »

We are talking past each other, and it appears to be intentional on your part.

All of us know that the setup includes either M or MMM due to the presence of an IC.

Those of us who are PRs know additional information. Stating this information in-thread is akin to claiming to be a PR ie bad.

You have claimed you know there is at most TTTT. The only way I can see this making sense is if you are claiming to be a Mason, based on looking at the C9++ setup information (something I find reasonable, given your statement you think masons should claim and at least one other person knows as much about the setup as you do).
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #106 on: October 09, 2013, 06:20:04 pm »

man, that's so not how simple math works.  P(0T) =/= P(1T) and so on.  If you flip a coin 100 times, you're much much more likely to see 50 heads than you are to see 10 heads, for example.

The odds are calculable, but not this simple.

Really?  If you know that there are 5 possible outcomes, and 3 of the 5 possible outcomes contain X, then it is incorrect to say you have a 3/5 chance of X?  Really?  How did I finish college?  I'm such a fucking idiot.  Shoot me in the fucking head.

There are two possible outcomes:  winning the lottery or not winning the lottery.  But I don't have a 1/2 chance of winning the lottery, do I?

If you want to claim PR, do it, Ash.  I'm not going to sit here and guess whether you're claiming or not.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #107 on: October 09, 2013, 06:21:10 pm »

Really?  If you know that there are 5 possible outcomes, and 3 of the 5 possible outcomes contain X, then it is incorrect to say you have a 3/5 chance of X?  Really?  How did I finish college?  I'm such a fucking idiot.  Shoot me in the fucking head.

I do not find it personally enjoyable to play a game where individuals take this sort of attitude to others. I would pretty-please ask that you try to reason through your argument here with me and others.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #108 on: October 09, 2013, 06:24:46 pm »

Really?  If you know that there are 5 possible outcomes, and 3 of the 5 possible outcomes contain X, then it is incorrect to say you have a 3/5 chance of X?  Really?  How did I finish college?  I'm such a fucking idiot.  Shoot me in the fucking head.

I do not find it personally enjoyable to play a game where individuals take this sort of attitude to others. I would pretty-please ask that you try to reason through your argument here with me and others.

This is Ash being reasonable. :P

He's explaining exactly as much as he intends to. He knows his previous meta's, and he knows that I know them. He's equally as capable of playing to them as town or scum. So read not the attitude, or the abrasive borderline obnoxious posts, but instead focus on both what he is saying (his points) and what he's not saying.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #109 on: October 09, 2013, 06:26:45 pm »

So read not the attitude, or the abrasive borderline obnoxious posts, but instead focus on both what he is saying (his points) and what he's not saying.

When I do that, I come away with two things:

1. He is reminding PRs that they know more about the setup than anyone else, and should keep it in the back of their mind (something I approve of)
2. He is claiming Mason.

I assume if 2 is incorrect ash should contradict me, because I don't see any scenario where it's good for me to incorrectly think ash is a mason.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #110 on: October 09, 2013, 06:27:19 pm »

man, that's so not how simple math works.  P(0T) =/= P(1T) and so on.  If you flip a coin 100 times, you're much much more likely to see 50 heads than you are to see 10 heads, for example.

The odds are calculable, but not this simple.

Really?  If you know that there are 5 possible outcomes, and 3 of the 5 possible outcomes contain X, then it is incorrect to say you have a 3/5 chance of X?  Really?  How did I finish college?  I'm such a fucking idiot.  Shoot me in the fucking head.

There are two possible outcomes:  winning the lottery or not winning the lottery.  But I don't have a 1/2 chance of winning the lottery, do I?

If you want to claim PR, do it, Ash.  I'm not going to sit here and guess whether you're claiming or not.

Maybe he wants to, maybe he doesn't. I don't see how telling him to just claim already helps you, him, me or town. If he wanted to come straight out and say something, he would have. He's said exactly what he intended to say. No more, no less.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #111 on: October 09, 2013, 06:34:12 pm »

What I do see is Ash breadcrumbing that he has a PR, which I do find scummy.  He's implying that he has more information about the number of roles that are in the game than others do.  Which means he's either a PR or scum, right?

PRs want to stay hidden though.. why would a PR breadcrumb that he's a PR in this set-up?   There are no PRs that want to be shot at night.  So I see it as something scum would want to do, and something that a town PR wouldn't want to do.

Vote: Ashersky

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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #112 on: October 09, 2013, 06:38:06 pm »

There are 2 doctors or 3 doctors, in this game.  I am the 1-Shot kind.

Ergo, we are guaranteed to have:

MDDXXXX, MMMDDXX, MDDDDXX

Those are the only possible set-ups in this game, currently, that we are playing.  I would rather the other DOCTOR(s) not claim.

I want Masons to claim, so we can narrow the possibilities further.

I'd also love for a Cop to claim, so we can play Follow-the-Cop.  2 Doctors means 1 guaranteed investigation (Godfather excluded).  Scum can roleblock me to keep my protection from working, but the other guaranteed doctor in the set-up protects the claimed Cop while he makes ICs or catches scum (again, Godfather excluded).

We can narrow our lynch/investigation pool by claiming.  We can also figure out the likelihood of a Godfather or SK with claiming.

If we have a full-cop, I would even go so far as to say no lynch today so we don't accidentally run up our full doctor and force a claim, and also to not let scum fakeclaim doctor.

If we have a 1-shot cop, he should definitely claim, as we can guarantee his 1-shot works on N1 with me and the other doctor.  If it's just a 1-shot cop, it's okay to lynch on D1, since even forcing the other doc to claim on D1 means they can't kill the cop on N1 with two docs alive on N1.


PPE -- Galz, at least, is the voice of reason.  I almost deleted this whole thing and stuck to my plan, but forget this.  I want to win, that's all I want, and I really DO NOT CARE if you like me or not.  Follow my words, not my personality.  I am right in this.

I lean theorel, Voltaire, nkirbit as scum, based on ridiculous statements, clear fear at what I'm laying out for town, and focusing on the unimportant bits and trying to hide everything under emotional complaints.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #113 on: October 09, 2013, 06:41:27 pm »

I think a cop should absolutely not claim.  What?  Doesn't scum just roleblock the cop and not worry about the doctors who are probably focused on the cop?

The cop claiming seems very very bad, in my opinion.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #114 on: October 09, 2013, 06:43:46 pm »

Couldn't scum just roleblock the cop rather than the doctor?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #115 on: October 09, 2013, 06:45:51 pm »

Yeah, under no circumstances should the cop claim. If Ash is correct, we do have a roleblocker, and the roleblocker would just block any claimed cop.

If the roleblocker flips, then we can try follow-the-cop. But until then, absolutely no way should a cop claim.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #116 on: October 09, 2013, 07:03:22 pm »

I lean theorel, Voltaire, nkirbit as scum, based on ridiculous statements, clear fear at what I'm laying out for town, and focusing on the unimportant bits and trying to hide everything under emotional complaints.

I haven't read ash's post yet, but this is exactly what I was expecting. Anyone who doesn't get what ash is doing, or responds with skepticism, is automatically scum in his mind. I debated posting my reply in the first place because I knew only one reaction was guaranteed: ash would find me scummy.
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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #117 on: October 09, 2013, 07:05:32 pm »

I think a cop should absolutely not claim.  What?  Doesn't scum just roleblock the cop and not worry about the doctors who are probably focused on the cop?

The cop claiming seems very very bad, in my opinion.
Yeah, his shot would just be blocked and used up.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #118 on: October 09, 2013, 07:07:35 pm »

I lean theorel, Voltaire, nkirbit as scum, based on ridiculous statements, clear fear at what I'm laying out for town, and focusing on the unimportant bits and trying to hide everything under emotional complaints.

I haven't read ash's post yet, but this is exactly what I was expecting. Anyone who doesn't get what ash is doing, or responds with skepticism, is automatically scum in his mind. I debated posting my reply in the first place because I knew only one reaction was guaranteed: ash would find me scummy.

Vote: Voltaire

This kinda implies that you knew Ash was town when you were posting your response. I'm getting that you are worried that "Ash is a town member who will find me scummy", rather than "Ash is a scum member who will paint me as scummy".
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #119 on: October 09, 2013, 07:09:17 pm »

@TA - no, it's me thinking "if ash is town, we're just going to waste a bunch of time with ask pursuing me, and me likely OMGUSing ash because nothing about what he's doing is pro-town". If ash is scum, I have no idea.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #120 on: October 09, 2013, 07:13:39 pm »

I ran through ash's claim on my own with the setup. If ash is telling the truth:

MDDXXXX - RB, ???
MDDDDXX - RB, ???
MMMDDXX - RB, ???
MMMDDDD - RB, Goon, Godfather

I do not see why the fourth is impossible as ash states. If I am missing something, please point it out to me.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #121 on: October 09, 2013, 07:17:20 pm »

Other reason I was hesitant to post: the more we talk about this, the more likely one of us derps whether or not we're a PR, and if we are, which one. Hence my comment that ash was fishing, and to what end I could not tell.
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #122 on: October 09, 2013, 07:25:40 pm »

I think, that with each claim, we discuss the new options, then move on.  After we clear up what Voltaire just said, lets move on to more productive things (like scumhunting).
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #123 on: October 09, 2013, 07:26:14 pm »

I am sooooooo happy! Mafia!!!!

Did you guys miss me?

So, I think normally I would be getting up in ash's face and arguing with him.... but honestly I am just too happy to do something like this. And, you know what, I am kinda intrigued by this whole idea.... so let's roll with it.

I mean I still want to look over the math and everything. I haven't looked over the setup (I mean I know it is C9++, but I need to familiarize myself with it... apparently mafiascum is also blocked at my work... lame.)


So for those of you who haven't played with me or haven't played with me recently, let me remind you.

1. I work a weird 7 on/7 off schedule, meaning I work 7 days in a row and then have 7 days off. This means my availability will vary from week to week.
2. My work blocks forums such as this.
3. I recently had a newborn come into my life... so I won't be nearly as active as I have in the past (I'll still be active, but I don't expect myself to be the leader that I was in previous games just because of the new nature of home life.)
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXII: Dynasty Warriors Mafia
« Reply #124 on: October 09, 2013, 07:34:36 pm »



Seriously, I have no idea what's going on.
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