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[WalrusMcFishSr]

Upon further reflection, I think I'm going to unvote for the night. While I'm still suspicious of the survivor claim, I agree that he's acting towny enough for now that further thought is required.

I agree Archetype that the sudgy claim should be looked at more carefully. That didn't exactly sit right with me either, although I'm still feeling that it's fairly believable...if perhaps not the best idea strategically. But hey, I also claimed shortly afterward so who am I to talk about early claiming.

Some people seem to think Dsell is a possibility...for me he was somewhat unmemorable, but maybe that's something to look for in scum. I will reread tomorrow and see what I think about that.

Increasingly suspicious of Robz...of course he's been a vocal opponent of Voltaire, and I'm not sure I like the way he responded to my claim...frustration at not being investigated and then silence. What do you think of my claim? What's your opinion on Voltaire now? There may be a scum connection here IMO. Also, the fact that he supports an Eevee lynch gives me further reason to think on that position.

Galzria's playstyle is fairly opaque to me...I would lean on the towny side but not confident at all. I defer to others who have played with him more often to give a more accurate read.

Anyway I'm going to sleep but I will have time to make another post in the morning.

[Dsell]

Caught up.

I think this case that's forming on me is a bit untrue: perhaps people are forgetting that I was the first person to call out liopoil yesterday and was the one who advocated for his lynch. A lot of people have been asking about Lio, and to me not a lot has changed...the main thing is that he's jorbles now and I think it's polite and a good idea to hear hold off and hear what jorbles has to say. Imo, jorbles is digging himself out of a hole, though probably not a huge one. I'm not convinced that his wagon was heavily pushed by scum, and to my memory (possibly faulty) shraeye never voted for him.

I have felt united with Robz and Galz in just one respect during this game: incredulity towards Voltaire. It looks possible that he is town though. I am sure I have agreed with them on other issues but those are largely incidental.

I was gonna type more but I'm falling asleep at my phone. Gonna try not to fall behind again.

[Dsell]

Oh I just checked the votes at the end of the day and shraeye was actually on liopoil...from much earlier. Shraeye wasn't around at deadline but this is probably Toowoomba for lio/jorbles, sorry my memory was off.

[Dsell]

Toowoomba. Wtf, phone. Townpoints. Goodnight.

[faust]

Wow, tons of stuff going on here. First, let me unvote because of Walrus' claim. I'm not sure what to make of it yet, but I have to think about it.

Voltaire being a SK makes lots of sense to me, but I guess finding mafia is more likely, so we should rather do that.

Eevee's claim helps noone but himself. Gives town a reason not to lynch him and scum a reason not to kill him. In fact, it's a clever claim coming from scum.

Dsell I don't know about, have to reread.

EFHW I still have a lightly scummy feeling about. I guess a reread is also necessary here.

These are my first thoughts upon reading all that happened last night. I will go into more detail when I have the time.

[Eevee]

What is a man to do, I drew survivor I have to play for the wincon they gave me. Again, I would prefer to win with town, and am willing to help you to best of my abilities - just not willing to sacrifice myself and lose the game.

[Voltgloss]

Dsell, why did you switch to mcmc at the end of the day?

[Voltgloss]

Mods:  Assuming Walrus's role claim is true, and he investigated someone who has capacity to kill, and his target made their first kill on the night Walrus investigated them - what result would Walrus get?

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Mods:  Assuming Walrus's role claim is true, and he investigated someone who has capacity to kill, and his target made their first kill on the night Walrus investigated them - what result would Walrus get?

Trust me, I tried to get a straight answer out of them too before reporting here. They kept going on about the "Natural Order Resolution", and that I have an "Investigative Role".  From my limited understanding that means Voltaire might have killed someone before I had a chance to analyze, but someone with more familiarity with the system can comment on that.

[Voltgloss]

Mods:  Assuming Walrus's role claim is true, and he investigated someone who has capacity to kill, and his target made their first kill on the night Walrus investigated them - what result would Walrus get?

Trust me, I tried to get a straight answer out of them too before reporting here. They kept going on about the "Natural Order Resolution", and that I have an "Investigative Role".  From my limited understanding that means Voltaire might have killed someone before I had a chance to analyze, but someone with more familiarity with the system can comment on that.

OK.  I am familiar with that system - I use it myself in games that I mod - and yes, under that system, killing happens before investigation.  So, yes, if Voltaire killed someone last night, and if your role operates the way you claim it does, then you would get a "no capacity to kill" false negative on Voltaire.

[EFHW]

Mods:  Assuming Walrus's role claim is true, and he investigated someone who has capacity to kill, and his target made their first kill on the night Walrus investigated them - what result would Walrus get?

Trust me, I tried to get a straight answer out of them too before reporting here. They kept going on about the "Natural Order Resolution", and that I have an "Investigative Role".  From my limited understanding that means Voltaire might have killed someone before I had a chance to analyze, but someone with more familiarity with the system can comment on that.

OK.  I am familiar with that system - I use it myself in games that I mod - and yes, under that system, killing happens before investigation.  So, yes, if Voltaire killed someone last night, and if your role operates the way you claim it does, then you would get a "no capacity to kill" false negative on Voltaire.

ok, that actually makes sense.  Otherwise trackers and watchers wouldn't work.

[EFHW]

But if Voltaire did kill last night, he killed scum.  He could be SK or vig still, but not mafia.

[EFHW]

brainfail here.  He could still be mafia if he killed nkirbit.

[faust]

Trust me, I tried to get a straight answer out of them too before reporting here. They kept going on about the "Natural Order Resolution", and that I have an "Investigative Role".  From my limited understanding that means Voltaire might have killed someone before I had a chance to analyze, but someone with more familiarity with the system can comment on that.

Actually, I think this post makes Walrus' claim much more likely to be true. If it was a fakeclaim, why would he pretend not to know exactly how his role works?

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Mods:  Assuming Walrus's role claim is true, and he investigated someone who has capacity to kill, and his target made their first kill on the night Walrus investigated them - what result would Walrus get?

Trust me, I tried to get a straight answer out of them too before reporting here. They kept going on about the "Natural Order Resolution", and that I have an "Investigative Role".  From my limited understanding that means Voltaire might have killed someone before I had a chance to analyze, but someone with more familiarity with the system can comment on that.

OK.  I am familiar with that system - I use it myself in games that I mod - and yes, under that system, killing happens before investigation.  So, yes, if Voltaire killed someone last night, and if your role operates the way you claim it does, then you would get a "no capacity to kill" false negative on Voltaire.

Yeah, that's what I thought, and that's part of the reason why I was hesitant to reveal. However, I still thought it was substantial enough that it should be taken into consideration. So this could still mean it's possible that Voltaire is SK, or less likely Mafia.

Again, not perfect evidence, but better than nothing.

[Galzria]

But if Voltaire did kill last night, he killed scum.  He could be SK or vig still, but not mafia.

Damnit EFHW. Don't make me be wrong about you. Granted you corrected yourself in the following post, but I read this as "If he killed last night he killed scum, because I know that scum killed nkirbit" (scum being Mafia here, not SK).

It's a slip, certainly. Some slips are real. Some aren't. It decreases the read I have on you however... And that makes me nervous since my read on you is based primarily on your interactions towards me - which could certainly be false positives.

[faust]

What are people thinking now about liopoil/Jorbles?  There was a big movement to lynch liopoil.  Where did it go?

I think this should be answered.

I'm still a little suspicious of Jorbles, but the fact that shraeye voted for him at the end of D1 and then left, even though it was very likely that he would be lynched, makes him look townie enough for me not to vote for him.

[Dsell]

Dsell, why did you switch to mcmc at the end of the day?

Mcmc was totally null for me and basically want contributing. Even my "strongest" scumreads yesterday weren't that strong, so his lynch was almost as good as liopoil's in my mind, as I mentioned. And at the end, his lynch was looking more likely.

[Dsell]

*wasn't contributing.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I just did a quick reread of Dsell. Some things that jumped out at me:

--"irked" by Voltaire's closeness to the Voltgloss
--thought shraeye was scummy
--defended nkirbit
--doesn't want to lynch EFHW. He mentions this a lot.

The last point was the one that raised my eyebrows the most. Points two and three are possibly indicative of "bussing" and "buddying" (did I use those terms right?), but the last one he harped on just a little too much I thought.

Which leads me to my next point: EFHW?

But if Voltaire did kill last night, he killed scum.  He could be SK or vig still, but not mafia.

Damnit EFHW. Don't make me be wrong about you. Granted you corrected yourself in the following post, but I read this as "If he killed last night he killed scum, because I know that scum killed nkirbit" (scum being Mafia here, not SK).

It's a slip, certainly. Some slips are real. Some aren't. It decreases the read I have on you however... And that makes me nervous since my read on you is based primarily on your interactions towards me - which could certainly be false positives.

I told you I was tempted to vote for EFHW before. Her initiating the mcmc wagon yesterday after that long analysis post, and her sudden changes in posting frequency...well I thought she was an OK vote going into today. Galzria's defense made me give pause, but now if he has doubts, my suspicions are again fanned. I never know how much to read into these "slips".

So I think that I would be happy with a Dsell vote, but considering Dsell's most salient contribution to me has been to defend EFHW, I am ok with a vote: EFHW right now.

Yeah, the lio/jorbles situation is weird...the player substitution makes it harder to read for me. I still think maybe there's possibility for scum here, but not sure.

Robz could also be scum for all I know. I wish he would appear and explain why he was so upset about not being investigated.

The more I think about sudgy's claim, the less I like it. I told you yesterday that I got a scum vibe from him, but then I doubted myself. But in fact my first impressions of shraeye were correct, so maybe I should be utilizing my animal instincts more...I think he will be my next reread later.

[Robz888]

Mods:  Assuming Walrus's role claim is true, and he investigated someone who has capacity to kill, and his target made their first kill on the night Walrus investigated them - what result would Walrus get?

Trust me, I tried to get a straight answer out of them too before reporting here. They kept going on about the "Natural Order Resolution", and that I have an "Investigative Role".  From my limited understanding that means Voltaire might have killed someone before I had a chance to analyze, but someone with more familiarity with the system can comment on that.

OK.  I am familiar with that system - I use it myself in games that I mod - and yes, under that system, killing happens before investigation.  So, yes, if Voltaire killed someone last night, and if your role operates the way you claim it does, then you would get a "no capacity to kill" false negative on Voltaire.

Okay, wonderful. So this reveal told us absolutely nothing. Voltaire could still have have killed. Of course Voltaire immediately paraded it as some mitigating thing, which it is not.

This actually reminds me of my own claim to save my scumbro mcmc in mafia XIX. I claimed Tracker on Day 2, I claimed that mcmc had not shot, and that he was likely to have shot if on a scum team with Galz (who was scum and already dead). My claim saved mcmc for a few more days.

Perhaps Walrus is the elusive junior SK buddy I've mentioned. Regardless, his claim means nothing.

Vote: Voltaire

Vote: Voltaire

[Robz888]

Robz could also be scum for all I know. I wish he would appear and explain why he was so upset about not being investigated.

I'm not going to explain that, no.

[Robz888]

Increasingly suspicious of Robz...of course he's been a vocal opponent of Voltaire, and I'm not sure I like the way he responded to my claim...frustration at not being investigated and then silence. What do you think of my claim? What's your opinion on Voltaire now? There may be a scum connection here IMO. Also, the fact that he supports an Eevee lynch gives me further reason to think on that position.

I had to leave for the night.

Your claim was a bad idea that proved nothing.

Still scum.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I never said that my claim proved anything. I was quite sure to qualify that. I still thought it was better out on the table than not. What this does mean is that it's less probable that Voltaire is Mafia (assuming you believe my claim), and in a game of probabilities I don't think that's worth nothing.

Bad idea? Maybe. I did assume that you would yell at me for claiming and I was quite prepared for that.

"Elusive Junior SK Buddy"? Sounds hilarious, but improbable to me.

[Robz888]

I never said that my claim proved anything. I was quite sure to qualify that. I still thought it was better out on the table than not. What this does mean is that it's less probable that Voltaire is Mafia (assuming you believe my claim), and in a game of probabilities I don't think that's worth nothing.

Well now that's just exactly what I said to save my scumbro in Mafia XIX. (Sorry, I know you asked us to keep that to a minimum. Let me see if I can find the relevant link.)

Bad idea? Maybe. I did assume that you would yell at me for claiming and I was quite prepared for that.

"Elusive Junior SK Buddy"? Sounds hilarious, but improbable to me.

Yes, improbable. I only bring it up because the other game of this size, Mafia XI, had one.