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[yed]

http://dom.retrobox.eu/?/20130824/log.51102b6ee4b06719e45eef9d.1377362953501.txt
Cellar, Moat, Forager, Familiar, Feast, Treasure Map, Rogue, Saboteur, Vault, Goons
Mail-mi missed Familiar and that decided the match.
I'm curious if it would be a good idea to skip Familiar and go for a lot of trashing from Foragers from the start.

[HiveMindEmulator]

If Goons weren't there, I'd probably skip Familiar and just go for Vaults. But I think Goons counters that strategy well enough that you have to get Familiars. But I think opening double Forager and getting the Potion on the next $4 hand is probably better than opening Potion/Silver.

[Kirian]

If Goons weren't there, I'd probably skip Familiar and just go for Vaults. But I think Goons counters that strategy well enough that you have to get Familiars. But I think opening double Forager and getting the Potion on the next $4 hand is probably better than opening Potion/Silver.

I think I would open Forager/Potion.  Best of both worlds, though it does decrease your chances of getting Familiar on the second shuffle.  Without Villages here, Goons points aren't going to be quite as important as green points.  Even with Curses out, there's no easy three-pile.

[Warfreak2]

I would open Forager/Forager; Treasure Maps and Goons sound good after that. Forager/Potion just sounds worse than either Forager/Forager or Potion/Cellar. Extra Goons buys, if not my opponent's Familiars, should keep my Foragers fuelled beyond the opening.

[SCSN]

I would open Forager/Forager; Treasure Maps and Goons sound good after that. Forager/Potion just sounds worse than either Forager/Forager or Potion/Cellar. Extra Goons buys, if not my opponent's Familiars, should keep my Foragers fuelled beyond the opening.

Cellar? I would say Potion/Silver and probably even Potion/Moat have a higher chance of getting you to 3+P.

[Warfreak2]

Potion/Moat is better than Potion/Silver; Storeroom, Courtyard and Warehouse are the top three cards for getting $3+P, not counting Squire/Watchtower shenanegans. I did the calculation for Cellar but it looks like I forgot to post it before coming on holiday - if I recall correctly, it's between Moat and Warehouse. Cycling is good because if you do whiff, you see the Potion again sooner. Then again, I could be wrong, memory is a funny thing...

Also, I think once I have a Familiar, I'd rather have a Cellar than a Moat, though that's intuition.

[HiveMindEmulator]

If Goons weren't there, I'd probably skip Familiar and just go for Vaults. But I think Goons counters that strategy well enough that you have to get Familiars. But I think opening double Forager and getting the Potion on the next $4 hand is probably better than opening Potion/Silver.

I think I would open Forager/Potion.  Best of both worlds, though it does decrease your chances of getting Familiar on the second shuffle.  Without Villages here, Goons points aren't going to be quite as important as green points.  Even with Curses out, there's no easy three-pile.

This is more like worst of both worlds. If you're opening Potion, you need to do it with something that helps you get to $3P.

In general, with good trashing, I prefer to trash first, then get the Curser. One extra play of the Curser vs one extra trash seems like a wash, but you're actually moving first trash up from 3rd time through the deck to 2nd, and delaying the actual Cursing from 3rd time to 4th, and the earlier swing is better. And if the trashing is more than one card, then of course its even bigger.

Potion/Moat is better than Potion/Silver; Storeroom, Courtyard and Warehouse are the top three cards for getting $3+P, not counting Squire/Watchtower shenanegans. I did the calculation for Cellar but it looks like I forgot to post it before coming on holiday - if I recall correctly, it's between Moat and Warehouse. Cycling is good because if you do whiff, you see the Potion again sooner. Then again, I could be wrong, memory is a funny thing...

Also, I think once I have a Familiar, I'd rather have a Cellar than a Moat, though that's intuition.

But once my opponent has a Familiar, I might prefer a Moat

[Kirian]

If Goons weren't there, I'd probably skip Familiar and just go for Vaults. But I think Goons counters that strategy well enough that you have to get Familiars. But I think opening double Forager and getting the Potion on the next $4 hand is probably better than opening Potion/Silver.

I think I would open Forager/Potion.  Best of both worlds, though it does decrease your chances of getting Familiar on the second shuffle.  Without Villages here, Goons points aren't going to be quite as important as green points.  Even with Curses out, there's no easy three-pile.

This is more like worst of both worlds. If you're opening Potion, you need to do it with something that helps you get to $3P.

In general, with good trashing, I prefer to trash first, then get the Curser. One extra play of the Curser vs one extra trash seems like a wash, but you're actually moving first trash up from 3rd time through the deck to 2nd, and delaying the actual Cursing from 3rd time to 4th, and the earlier swing is better. And if the trashing is more than one card, then of course its even bigger.

So you're thinking Double Forager?

[Warfreak2]

But once my opponent has a Familiar, I might prefer a Moat

I took that into consideration also, and I still think I prefer the Cellar - an extra 4 cards of cycling, vs 2 cards of dead draw, I think my extra Familiar plays (plus the number of times you draw a Familiar dead) will at least equal the number of times you block me. But as I said, just going on intuition. OK, you don't have to play the Moat if you didn't already play Familiar that turn, but then I am beating you in the race by almost a full turn every shuffle.

[SCSN]

But once my opponent has a Familiar, I might prefer a Moat

I took that into consideration also, and I still think I prefer the Cellar - an extra 4 cards of cycling, vs 2 cards of dead draw, I think my extra Familiar plays (plus the number of times you draw a Familiar dead) will at least equal the number of times you block me. But as I said, just going on intuition. OK, you don't have to play the Moat if you didn't already play Familiar that turn, but then I am beating you in the race by almost a full turn every shuffle.

Well, you're not discarding your whole hand each time you play the Cellar. I'd say on average you cycle only 2 cards or so?

[HiveMindEmulator]

So you're thinking Double Forager?

Yeah. There is a slight risk of not hitting $4 on turns 3-4 (FCCCE then FCCEE or CCCEE), but overall, I think you end up in better shape.

[DG]

I would skip the cellar here. Forager, goons, and cellar are a bad fit.

[Drab Emordnilap]

But once my opponent has a Familiar, I might prefer a Moat

I took that into consideration also, and I still think I prefer the Cellar - an extra 4 cards of cycling, vs 2 cards of dead draw, I think my extra Familiar plays (plus the number of times you draw a Familiar dead) will at least equal the number of times you block me. But as I said, just going on intuition. OK, you don't have to play the Moat if you didn't already play Familiar that turn, but then I am beating you in the race by almost a full turn every shuffle.

Well, you're not discarding your whole hand each time you play the Cellar. I'd say on average you cycle only 2 cards or so?

I'd put that numbe closer to 3 cards. Toss those coppers.

[SCSN]

But once my opponent has a Familiar, I might prefer a Moat

I took that into consideration also, and I still think I prefer the Cellar - an extra 4 cards of cycling, vs 2 cards of dead draw, I think my extra Familiar plays (plus the number of times you draw a Familiar dead) will at least equal the number of times you block me. But as I said, just going on intuition. OK, you don't have to play the Moat if you didn't already play Familiar that turn, but then I am beating you in the race by almost a full turn every shuffle.

Well, you're not discarding your whole hand each time you play the Cellar. I'd say on average you cycle only 2 cards or so?

I'd put that numbe closer to 3 cards. Toss those coppers.

I seriously doubt that. During your 2nd shuffle you want to avoid any Copper discarding if it increases your chance of hitting 2+P. Once you have one or more Familiars, you don't want to discard stuff if it causes a reshuffle that let's the familiar(s) you might have just played miss it. As your deck gets better over time (though it might happen only slowly due to Curses), it becomes less and less likely that you have that much bad cards you want to discard, and there's also the possibility of Forager collision, in which case you'd rather trash one of the bad cards.

I can see you getting anywhere close to an average of 3 only if you get terribly unlucky with Familiar or if you deliberately try to create a shitty deck.

[Warfreak2]

During the second shuffle you don't have a Familiar yet, so it doesn't count towards your average cycling-while-playing-Familiar. It's probably something like 2.6 or 2.7 but who wants to argue about decimal places in wild guesses?