Questions:#1) You are 5 points behind your opponent and there is one Province left in the supply. There are 4 coin tokens on your Pirate Ship mat. It's your turn, and you played a Fishing Village last turn. In your hand you have a Swindler, a Pirate Ship, a Province, a Silver, and a Copper. How do you play your hand?
#2) Your hand is Rebuild, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper. You know you are ahead in points and have at least one Duchy and one Estate in your draw pile. There are no alt VP cards in the kingdom and there is one Province left in the supply. How do you play your hand?
a) Play Rebuild, name Province
b) Play Rebuild, name Duchy
c) Play Rebuild, name Estate
#3) You and your opponent have purchased nothing but Jack of All Trades, Silvers, Golds, Duchies, and Provinces. There are two Provinces and four Duchies left in the supply. You are one point behind. You have 8 coin in your buy phase; what do you do?
a) Buy a Province
b) Buy a Duchy
c) Buy a Gold
d) Buy a Jack of All Trades
#4) You and your opponent have purchased nothing but Jack of All Trades, Silvers, Golds, Duchies, and Provinces. There are two Provinces and four Duchies left in the supply. The score is tied. You have 8 coin in your buy phase; what do you do?
a) Buy a Province
b) Buy a Duchy
c) Buy a Gold
d) Buy a Jack of All Trades
Answers, Analysis, and Principles of the Endgame:Answer #1) Since Fishing Village gives you $1 on the duration, play the Pirate Ship and take $4, play your Treasure, buy that six point Province and WIN.
DON'T play the Swindler! If you do, you may hit an opponent's Province ending the game without a way to win! Or you may hit a Curse with the Curse pile empty giving him a Copper and a six point lead, again giving up the sure win.
Principle: When you have a guaranteed win, take it!
One note on strategy here: It doesn't matter. You could have picked a strategy that loses to your opponent's strategy 99% of the time in simulation, and it still doesn't matter. All that matters is the state of the game right now. You have a chance to win. Take it. You got there with extreme shuffle luck, but so what?
Conversely, you can play a strategy that wins 99% of the time and still throw away a Victory with poor endgame play.
Answer #2) Because there is only one Province left, then the right answer is definitely c). You are in the lead and want to end the game if you can. By naming Estate you pass over the Estate in your draw pile and will hit either a Duchy or a Province, gain the last Province, and win the game.
If instead there were two or more Provinces, then your play will depend on how far ahead you are, how many Provinces and Duchies are left, whether three piles are running low, and what kind you strategy you are and your opponent are playing.
Because how you play your hand depends on how close you are to the end of the game, it's important to watch the piles -- especially Province, but any piles that might run out. So, the next important principle is:
Principle: Watch the piles. You have to know you are in the endgame in order to play it right.
Answer #3) Do NOT buy the Province. You are giving your opponent a chance to buy the last Province and win the game. It's better to keep the mirror going by buying a Duchy and taking a two point lead.
Answer #4) If you are second player, buying the Province is definitely the right move; your opponent cannot mirror you and buy the last Province with $8 -- your opponent will lose the game on turns!
If you are first player, buying the Province is less good. You are allowing your opponent to end the game in a tie, which for a mirror match may be a good risk to take. Shared Victory is better than no victory at all -- and you still might win if he can't buy the Province. Duchy is a good choice here, too, if a shared Victory is an unacceptable outcome.
c) and d)are incorrect in both questions. It's too late to build -- the end of the game is nigh. Buy Victory points! It's how you win.
Principle: Understand the ins and outs of the penultimate province rule (PPR). For a detailed explanation, see
this blog post and
this follow up article by WanderingWinder.
Detailed Scenario #1:Consider the following kindgom with Colonies and Platinums:
Apothecary, Bank, Black Market, Fishing Village, Governor, Loan, Native Village, Philosopher's Stone, Stables, and Worker's Village
You are first player. It's your turn and you are down 17 points. Your opponent has purchased Stables and treasures only (including Loan and two Banks). There is one Colony remaining, but plenty of Provinces, Duchies, and Estates. You decide this is going to be your mega-turn; you are going to try to end the game this turn with a win. Your turn proceedes as follows:
Play Apothecary, play Governor (draw), play Worker's Village, play Governor (draw), play Governor (draw), play Apothecary, play Governor (draw), play Worker's Village.
At this point, you have the following in your hand: Governor, 5 Coppers, a Silver, 2 Golds, and a Bank (plus some Victory cards) and 3 buys. In your draw pile you have a Worker's Village, a Bank, a Gold, two Coppers, and two Victory cards.
How do you continue your turn?
a) Play Governor, gain Gold
b) Play Governor, draw three cards, get one action
c) Play Governor, "remodel" Gold into Province
d) End Action phase, proceed to Buy phase.
Answer: If you enter the buy phase, you will have $22 coin and 3 buys. You can get Colony, Province, and Estate for 17 points, which would tie the game if you are second player. But you are first player! You would lose on turns. You could admit the mega turn failed and buy two Provinces and a Duchy for 15 points, but your opponent has 9 cards in hand and will almost certainly buy the Colony and win. If you Governor and gain Gold, that does nothing for you. That eliminates a) and d).
If you play Governor and "remodel" the Gold into Province, your opponent may "remodel" a Bank into a Province! With nine cards in hand, and given his strategy, this is somewhat likely. This makes c) okay, but not a great choice.
However, you have a great option: You have a guaranteed win if you play Governor for the draw! At most you will draw two Victory cards. You will draw at least one Copper, putting you at $24 dollars (because of Bank), enough for a Colony, a Province, and a Duchy! 19 points and the win! Congratulations!
What if there were three Victory cards in your draw pile and a Potion, as well?
That's what happened in this game. Now drawing is not a sure thing, and it's a much tougher call. In the actual game, no pawns intended opted for trying the remodel, but I had a Bank in hand.
Principle: Watch out for externalities. Don't inadvertantly give your opponent a win by giving them an exploitable benefit.
How beneficial externalities are depends on the game and situation, but their power usually changes in the late endgame. If you know you are going to try to end the game on a mega-turn, then during that megaturn draw externalities, non-point attacks, and treasure gaining externalities are all weaker, while trashing and gaining externalities (esp. Governor's remodel and Bishop) are stronger.
Detailed Scenario #2:Consider the following kingdom, with Colonies and Platinums:
Courtyard, Pawn, Pearl Diver, Coppersmith, Ironmonger, Navigator, Count, Royal Seal, Grand Market, Expand
Your deck consists of 6 Grand Markets, 1 Count, 3 Ironmongers, 1 Courtyard, 3 Pearl Divers, 1 Silver, 1 Gold, 1 Platinum, and 3 Colonies. (30 points)
Your opponent's deck consists of 1 Expand, 4 Grand Markets, 1 Count, 3 Ironmongers, 1 Courtyard, 2 Coppers, 1 Silver, 1 Gold, 1 Platinum, 1 Duchy, and 3 Colonies. (33 points)
Each of you reshuffled and drew 5 cards during your last cleanup phase.
You are second player, and it's your turn. Your hand is: Colony, Colony, Ironmonger, Silver, Grand Market. Your turn proceeds as follows:
Player 2 plays Ironmonger
Player 2 ...draws Pearl Diver
Player 2 ...reveals: Gold
Player 2 ...places Gold on top of deck
Player 2 plays Pearl Diver
Player 2 ...draws Gold
Player 2 ...places Grand Market on top of deck
Player 2 plays Grand Market
Player 2 ...draws Grand Market
Player 2 plays Grand Market
Player 2 ...draws Pearl Diver
Player 2 plays Pearl Diver
Player 2 ...draws Grand Market
Player 2 ...places Count on top of deck
Player 2 plays Grand Market
Player 2 ...draws Count
Player 2 plays Count
Player 2 ...discards Colony
Player 2 ...discards Colony
Player 2 ...gains Duchy
Player 2 plays 1 Silver, 1 Gold
What do you buy (with 12 coin)?
Answer:This is what happened:
Player 2 buys Colony
Player 2 gains Colony
But getting the Colony is incorrect! Because there are so many plus buys and trash for benefit opportunities in your opponent's deck, you are giving your opponent a chance to end the game on you with a good shuffle. Buy Province-Estate-Estate instead. You'd be up eight points and it would take absolute perfect shuffle luck for your opponent to win on the next turn now. And you know you are going to have at least $11 with several buys for your next turn based on the quality of cards left in your draw pile. You will go up even more. A couple of points now is not worth the chance of your opponent getting moderately lucky. To emphasize, buying the Colony breaks the penultimate colony rule when there are multiple buys, gains, or trash for benefit possible.
I was player 1, and did get a moderately lucky shuffle. Here's my turn (I had Grand Market, Copper, Colony, Grand Market, Duchy in hand):
Polk5440 plays Grand Market
Polk5440 ...draws Ironmonger
Polk5440 plays Ironmonger
Polk5440 ...draws Ironmonger
Polk5440 ...reveals: Colony
Polk5440 ...discards Colony
Polk5440 ...draws Gold
Polk5440 plays Ironmonger
Polk5440 ...draws Grand Market
Polk5440 ...reveals: Silver
Polk5440 ...places Silver on top of deck
Polk5440 plays Grand Market
Polk5440 ...draws Silver
Polk5440 plays Grand Market
Polk5440 ...draws Expand
Polk5440 plays Expand
Polk5440 ...trashes Duchy
Polk5440 ...gains Province
Polk5440 plays 1 Copper, 1 Gold, 1 Silver
Polk5440 buys Colony
Polk5440 ...gains Colony
Polk5440 buys Estate
Polk5440 ...gains Estate
I had an Expand that was useless for half the game and critically lost the Grand Market split. But it doesn't matter. Endgame play (bad on his part, good on mine) was enough to overcome early bad luck and a probably inferior strategic plan. I win 47-43; room to spare!
I made you invest in looking at this game, but luckily we can back up and see one more principle of endgame play in my second to last turn:
...
Polk5440 plays Expand
Polk5440 ...trashes Courtyard
Polk5440 ...gains Duchy
Polk5440 plays Count
Polk5440 ...gains Copper
Polk5440 ...takes 3 coins
Polk5440 plays 1 Platinum, 1 Gold, 1 Copper, 1 Silver
Polk5440 buys Colony
Polk5440 ...gains Colony
Polk5440 buys Colony
Polk5440 ...gains Colony
Principle: Cannibalize your deck at the end of the game.
Your goal at the end is to get as many points as possible, even if that means trashing your prize action cards and Treasures. They don't give you any points once the game is over! Trash them for benefit; and that benefit is usually green. Also, don't be afraid of clog if you are about to lose or there is no reshuffle in sight before the end.
That Courtyard was valuable, Coppers are not good in Colony games, and I had to reshuffle, but I my deck was not as good as his; I had to make up the point deficit by converting to points before the last shuffle (which I try very hard to wait to do in an engine game to maximize the power of my last turn or two) and relying on a little luck. And as we saw above, bad play by him cemented a Victory that should not have been mine.
Principles Summarized:In summary, 5 principles of good endgame play are:
1. When you have a guaranteed win, take it!
2. Watch the piles! To play the endgame, you must know it's the endgame.
3. Understand the ins and outs of the Penultimate Province Rule.
4. Watch out for externalities.
5. Cannibalize your deck. When the game ends, only the points matter.
Edit: Typos corrected.
Edit 2: Question 2 and Answer 2 changed.