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[SCSN]

• Doctor will lead to the most mistakes in opening, particularly with Baker in the Kingdom.
  Nope. People learned not to open Doctor. Good job people.

Huh? I think Doctor is rarely worth getting, but if you want to get it at all (when you want to build an engine and it's the only available trasher), you should open with it.

[Polk5440]

I'm terrible at predicting. But for fun, here it goes. I'll avoid the formatting and let my outlandish predictions stand boldly on their own:

Guilds will not be the last official Dominion expansion.

Big Money strategies are optimal more often in full random than if Dominion had stopped with Dark Ages.

Masterpiece and Baker will be known as great big money enablers. Tactician-Masterpiece, who needs Bank on $7?, opening Gold, and Treasure Map-Treasure Map from the fourth seat for the win!

[ednever]

Retrospective part 2:

• Taxman will be relatively bad, particularly in the endgame. In the early game, it compares unfavorably to Cutpurse. In the endgame, it compares unfavorably to Mandarin. The latter is particularly damning.
  I had this backwards. Taxman is bad in the early game and somewhat better in the endgame. It's still relatively bad.
• Butcher will be overrated by nearly every player, and a questionable buy in Guilds-light Kingdoms.
  It's good but not great; the biggest surprise here is that people don't seem to be overrating it.
• Stonemason will be the highest-skill card in the set, lending itself to non-obvious shenanigans that synergize the on-buy and on-play effects.
  Not really. It leads to some really neat stuff, but it doesn't take a dramatically skilled player to do most of the neat stuff.
• Advisor will be underrated as people compare it to Scout and Envoy, then overrated as people compare it to Lab, then correctly rated as people realize how much better Silver and Warehouse are than Advisor in the early game.
  My mistake here was thinking people would care that much about Advisor.
• Plaza will not be very good except in Watchtower/Library decks. It will not be powerful enough to command its price point in fully-drawing engines. It will be one of the weakest Villages.
  I originally swung completely the other way [it's one of the best]. I think it comes out as very average--often not worth the opportunity cost, but the flexibility it provides is useful. It compares favorably to Oasis, and its relative power among Villages probably sits around Farming Village.
• Except in sets with a ton of surplus actions, Merchant Guild will be about even with Silver, and not worth buying when good terminals are in the Kingdom.
  Yup. Merchant Guild is bad. People still seem to be enamored with its ability to enable crazy things on occasion--but it's extremely rare for this to happen, and setting it up takes way too long. In general, I'd rather use Candlestick Makers, which generate coin tokens nearly as fast, are easier to spam, and don't require Villages.
• Doctor will lead to the most mistakes in opening, particularly with Baker in the Kingdom.
  Nope. People learned not to open Doctor. Good job people.
• Almost nobody will buy Masterpiece outside slogs, and in those they will buy it too late. It will be one of the largest differentiators between intermediate and advanced players.
  I think I was right about this. It only seems to get bought in crazy Feodum decks and the like.

Interesting.
What am I missing with Doctor?

Isn't it a good open if you want to trash? Especially if you open 4/3?

I've done it a couple of times and it seemed to work. You can trash your initial coppers pretty easily. And if you track your deck right, estates too.

I would think Dr gets a lot worse if you buy it later: a lot harder to connect with those coppers and estates.

Ed

[Awaclus]

Interesting.
What am I missing with Doctor?

Isn't it a good open if you want to trash? Especially if you open 4/3?

I've done it a couple of times and it seemed to work. You can trash your initial coppers pretty easily. And if you track your deck right, estates too.

I would think Dr gets a lot worse if you buy it later: a lot harder to connect with those coppers and estates.

Ed

I agree. A $4 Doctor can be very good when there isn't a strong $4 opener on the board. The chances of hitting an Estate are decent (2/5 or 1/3, depending on your first shuffle) and it's just awesome if you manage to do it, and hitting a Copper isn't bad either so it's sometimes worth the try. Not always, though.

[DG]

I think you're still underestimating masterpiece. It is quite a strong kingdom treasure. Nobody really seems to appreciate kingdom treasures though.

[Warfreak2]

I think Doctor is one of the best trashers, except when it fails, it fails hard: you draw it on turn 5, name whatever's most likely, and still hit nothing. After that happens, it's pretty much a worse Lookout.

I like Masterpiece a lot.

[LastFootnote]

Nobody really seems to appreciate kingdom treasures though.

I know what you mean. Perhaps it's because they're not engine components? I'm a big fan of Treasure Kingdom cards in general.

[mail-mi]

Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.

lol