Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[UmbrageOfSnow]

But if the hider goes after their biggest scum read, and is right on the first day, well we confirm one scum instantly, which is good, but we have no confirmed town at all.  It seems the longer the hider stays alive, the better their odds of further narrowing down the suspect pool.

In general a 1-for-1 trade is great for town, and I don't see any reason why that would be different in this setup. We'd lynch scum the next day, and we're good.

There are 3 mafia though, right?  So yeah, 1-for-1 is great, but the hider will get a 1-for-1 trade sooner or later no matter what, assuming they hide behind someone every night.  Isn't it much much better to get a 1-for-1 trade and also learn that 1 or 2 other people are confirmed town?

[Twistedarcher]

Oh, and the other problem with that is that if several people said they would hide behind the same person, scum could target that person in particular with better odds of getting two kills for one.  And people everyone has town reads on are more likely to be scum targets anyway, aren't they?

Okay, so maybe that is a bad idea, or it needs to be worked around.  What if each player had to declare who they'd hide behind, but no repeats allowed?  Does that make it any better?

Maybe random is better after all.

Yeah, this is the main problem with choosing targets. if there's repeats, it allows scum to play the odds to possibly get two nightkills. This is the downside, and regrettably it's a pretty significant downside. Random helps to minimize this, but it has less upside as well, I feel.

[Twistedarcher]

But if the hider goes after their biggest scum read, and is right on the first day, well we confirm one scum instantly, which is good, but we have no confirmed town at all.  It seems the longer the hider stays alive, the better their odds of further narrowing down the suspect pool.

In general a 1-for-1 trade is great for town, and I don't see any reason why that would be different in this setup. We'd lynch scum the next day, and we're good.

There are 3 mafia though, right?  So yeah, 1-for-1 is great, but the hider will get a 1-for-1 trade sooner or later no matter what, assuming they hide behind someone every night.  Isn't it much much better to get a 1-for-1 trade and also learn that 1 or 2 other people are confirmed town?

I think, in general, 1-for-1 trades are better than confirming town. The sooner we kill a scum, the better -- the second scum is much easier to find, once you have those interactions to look at.

As for changing your reads as town hider, it's a difficult thing to do, but no different than the dilemma a cop has in most games. It's something that needs to be handled with care, but still done. Town bussing should never, ever, ever happen, IMO. Hider would need to go find some evidence, anything, or just try to focus their attention elsewhere without being too obvious.

It's a tough role to play certainly, and something that needs to be handled with care, but it's just part of the game. I don't think it's such a big issue that it should be a priority over finding scum, though (finding scum is a much bigger boon to town)

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Okay, so my current thought is that we should all list a reads-list, and agree for each night on an agreed upon number in that list that we would all go after if we were the hider.  Maybe start near the middle or town side on day 1, progress toward the scummy side as the days go by so we have greater odds of making that 1-for-1 trade when things start to get dire.

It occurs to me that Tracker/Vigilante could also matter to this.  If they are a Vigilante, that is one more person the hider would die for hiding behind, not so if they are a tracker.  If we're talking about coordinated hider actions, should we maybe discuss whether it makes sense for them to definitely choose Tracker, or is that whole line of conversation/reasoning likely to end up giving scum too much information?

[Voltaire]

But if the hider goes after their biggest scum read, and is right on the first day, well we confirm one scum instantly, which is good, but we have no confirmed town at all.  It seems the longer the hider stays alive, the better their odds of further narrowing down the suspect pool.

In general a 1-for-1 trade is great for town, and I don't see any reason why that would be different in this setup. We'd lynch scum the next day, and we're good.

There are 3 mafia though, right?  So yeah, 1-for-1 is great, but the hider will get a 1-for-1 trade sooner or later no matter what, assuming they hide behind someone every night.  Isn't it much much better to get a 1-for-1 trade and also learn that 1 or 2 other people are confirmed town?

Of course, of course. But we'll also have the doctor/pyscho maybe getting a dirty read on the vig, and the tracker maybe picking up on the hider/detective-psycho. Hence my comment that this setup seems to be designed for maximum suspicion.

Also I'm going to call that role the psycho-detective until we know which it is (if ever). 

Waiting for raerae to yell at us for theory talk...

[UmbrageOfSnow]

DON'T YELL AT ME RAERAE!

Yeah, so Tracker suspects Hider, Psycho-Detective (I love this name).
Psychologist suspects Vigilante.
Hider causes us to suspect Vigilante.

There is a lot of inter-town suspicion there.  It seems like  choosing Vigilante is a good way to get suspected by a lot of people, and choosing Tracker is a good way to find yourself wrongly  suspecting a lot of people.  I'm not sure if that has any particular meaning though.  Maybe that the Trackerlante had better be smart?  It seems like Vigilante would be a better choice for a newer player, Tracker a better choice for a more experienced player (someone good at figuring out which of those investigations could be false alarms.)  But Tracker makes the Hider a bit better by virtue of existing, so maybe that means Tracker is better for everyone other than himself and his ability to read people?  Seems like a smart Tracker could puzzle out what the odds of someone being Hider/Psycho-Detective are, so I'd think that is the better choice, but maybe not?

[raerae]

Goodness gracious some of those names are hard to read. Any thoughts on name claiming?

For now I'm just happy to be playing again and glad that I don't have to worry about being scum on my first game back.

NO CLAIMING!!  Those, as always, are my thoughts on that subject.

[Voltaire]

DON'T YELL AT ME RAERAE!

Yeah, so Tracker suspects Hider, Psycho-Detective (I love this name).
Psychologist suspects Vigilante.
Hider causes us to suspect Vigilante.

There is a lot of inter-town suspicion there.  It seems like  choosing Vigilante is a good way to get suspected by a lot of people, and choosing Tracker is a good way to find yourself wrongly  suspecting a lot of people.  I'm not sure if that has any particular meaning though.  Maybe that the Trackerlante had better be smart?  It seems like Vigilante would be a better choice for a newer player, Tracker a better choice for a more experienced player (someone good at figuring out which of those investigations could be false alarms.)  But Tracker makes the Hider a bit better by virtue of existing, so maybe that means Tracker is better for everyone other than himself and his ability to read people?  Seems like a smart Tracker could puzzle out what the odds of someone being Hider/Psycho-Detective are, so I'd think that is the better choice, but maybe not?

Putting numbers on some pure odds for N1 (scum already knows/can figure this out themselves, so there is no harm in this. And sometimes town doesn't think this sort of stuff out this explicitly (while scum does), so hopefully if our PRs are that sort of townie this will be remembered and give town a small leg up):

Psychologist will get "can kill" result on 4/12 players with Vig [1 town result/3 scum results]
Psychologist will get "can kill" result on 3/12 players with Tracker [0t/3s]
Detective will get "killed" result on 2/12 players with Vig who kills [1t/1s]
Detective will get "killed" result on 1/12 players with no Vig/Vig who doesn't kill [0t/1s]
Hider will die behind probably 5/12 players with Vig (edge case where scum kills Vig N1) [2t/3s]
Hider will die behind probably 4/12 players with Tracker [1t/3s]
Tracker will see 3/12 players take an action (if Hider hides) [2t/1s]
Vigilante will kill scum 3/12 times, town 9/12 times (PR 2/9 times) [9(2)t/3s]

Let me know if I've made any errors.

[Jimmmmm]

Oh um RVS, that's right.

Um, Vote: Umbrage for making too much sense for a newbie. Obviously has vets whispering in his ear telling him what to say.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

The math looks good to me there Voltaire.  My only question is what's the point of being a Vigilante who doesn't kill???

I mean, if you get the role against your will and choose not to kill because you don't have any good scum reads, that makes sense, but if you think you wouldn't want to kill, why wouldn't you just choose tracker in this setup?

[raerae]

But if the hider goes after their biggest scum read, and is right on the first day, well we confirm one scum instantly, which is good, but we have no confirmed town at all.  It seems the longer the hider stays alive, the better their odds of further narrowing down the suspect pool.

In general a 1-for-1 trade is great for town, and I don't see any reason why that would be different in this setup. We'd lynch scum the next day, and we're good.

There are 3 mafia though, right?  So yeah, 1-for-1 is great, but the hider will get a 1-for-1 trade sooner or later no matter what, assuming they hide behind someone every night.  Isn't it much much better to get a 1-for-1 trade and also learn that 1 or 2 other people are confirmed town?

Of course, of course. But we'll also have the doctor/pyscho maybe getting a dirty read on the vig, and the tracker maybe picking up on the hider/detective-psycho. Hence my comment that this setup seems to be designed for maximum suspicion.

Also I'm going to call that role the psycho-detective until we know which it is (if ever). 

Waiting for raerae to yell at us for theory talk...

And what good has it ever done me?  Oh well, LOUD NOISES THEORY IS BAD LOUD NOISES!!

Seriously though, I think the hider should decide on their own who to hide behind and I won't be giving a list of people I would hide behind were I the hider.  The last time I saw town give a similar list, they got steam rolled by the scumteam (Ash, Yuma, Eevee...) because they didn't  pay attention or refer back to their lists. 

[Voltaire]

The math looks good to me there Voltaire.  My only question is what's the point of being a Vigilante who doesn't kill???

I mean, if you get the role against your will and choose not to kill because you don't have any good scum reads, that makes sense, but if you think you wouldn't want to kill, why wouldn't you just choose tracker in this setup?

I'm just talked about N1 with this math - obviously it changes quite a bit (psychologist gets better, for example) as the nights go by. I could see someone picking Vig and not shooting until later days when they're more sure on their reads.

[Voltaire]

Seriously though, I think the hider should decide on their own who to hide behind and I won't be giving a list of people I would hide behind were I the hider.  The last time I saw town give a similar list, they got steam rolled by the scumteam (Ash, Yuma, Eevee...) because they didn't  pay attention or refer back to their lists.

Sounds like that's a fixable problem then though?

[Robz888]

We have had a Hider before, and we had this exact same debate over whether to claim /wouldhidebehindX, and I think we sort of did it, and then our Hider died Night 1.

This was Mafia XII, Voltgloss's JK+ Waffle Mafia.

So, let's not do that.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Oh um RVS, that's right.

Um, Vote: Umbrage for making too much sense for a newbie. Obviously has vets whispering in his ear telling him what to say.

Oh shit!  I've broken my meta as a newb.  Let's try this again.

GUIZ, I HAVE THE SCUM TEAM NARROWED DOWN TO EXACTLY 3 PLAYERS, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO SAY WHO UNTIL WE MASSCLAIM!!!  BUT JUST TRUST ME AND WE CAN SOLVE THIS GAME BY DAY 2 WITH MY SECRET PLAN!

(Was that mean?)

[Voltaire]

We have had a Hider before, and we had this exact same debate over whether to claim /wouldhidebehindX, and I think we sort of did it, and then our Hider died Night 1.

This was Mafia XII, Voltgloss's JK+ Waffle Mafia.

So, let's not do that.

Was the hider outed so the mafia NK'd them, or did they catch scum by hiding behind someone and town couldn't figure out who?

[Robz888]

We have had a Hider before, and we had this exact same debate over whether to claim /wouldhidebehindX, and I think we sort of did it, and then our Hider died Night 1.

This was Mafia XII, Voltgloss's JK+ Waffle Mafia.

So, let's not do that.

Was the hider outed so the mafia NK'd them, or did they catch scum by hiding behind someone and town couldn't figure out who?

Eevee was the Hider. He hid behind Cayvie, who was Town, and shot by ashersky, who was a Town Vigilante. Ashersky was shot by mafia. I was a Tracker who tracked ashersky, so I actually got to piece together the mayhem the next day. Suffice to say, we did not win that game.

[Jimmmmm]

Oh um RVS, that's right.

Um, Vote: Umbrage for making too much sense for a newbie. Obviously has vets whispering in his ear telling him what to say.

Oh shit!  I've broken my meta as a newb.  Let's try this again.

GUIZ, I HAVE THE SCUM TEAM NARROWED DOWN TO EXACTLY 3 PLAYERS, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO SAY WHO UNTIL WE MASSCLAIM!!!  BUT JUST TRUST ME AND WE CAN SOLVE THIS GAME BY DAY 2 WITH MY SECRET PLAN!

(Was that mean?)

Nope, just confirming my suspicions, thanks.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

The people reading the spectator comments on Innovation already know this, but I've been following along with that game (and Back to Basics) while waiting for this one to fill up.  I wanted to figure out how the site worked, what people were like, etc.

Figure I should maybe actually say that rather than just implying it.

[Robz888]

Oh um RVS, that's right.

Um, Vote: Umbrage for making too much sense for a newbie. Obviously has vets whispering in his ear telling him what to say.

Oh shit!  I've broken my meta as a newb.  Let's try this again.

GUIZ, I HAVE THE SCUM TEAM NARROWED DOWN TO EXACTLY 3 PLAYERS, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO SAY WHO UNTIL WE MASSCLAIM!!!  BUT JUST TRUST ME AND WE CAN SOLVE THIS GAME BY DAY 2 WITH MY SECRET PLAN!

(Was that mean?)

Hahaha. Wow. You are quite funny.

[Robz888]

Oh um RVS, that's right.

Um, Vote: Umbrage for making too much sense for a newbie. Obviously has vets whispering in his ear telling him what to say.

Oh shit!  I've broken my meta as a newb.  Let's try this again.

GUIZ, I HAVE THE SCUM TEAM NARROWED DOWN TO EXACTLY 3 PLAYERS, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO SAY WHO UNTIL WE MASSCLAIM!!!  BUT JUST TRUST ME AND WE CAN SOLVE THIS GAME BY DAY 2 WITH MY SECRET PLAN!

(Was that mean?)

Nope, just confirming my suspicions, thanks.

Jimm, we have had super proficient newbs come out of the wood work. TwistedArcher is a good example.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So, yeah, I can see what Robz and Raerae are saying about planning this making it easy for scum to 2-for-1 the Hider and whomever they hide behind, I kind of said the same thing, but it still seems like we should have some kind of plan.  If the Hider just hides behind their biggest scum read and no one says anything, don't they just die without getting us anywhere?

[nkirbit]

Hi guys!

On the hider thing:

Pros:  If the hider dies because he hides behind mafia, a lot of the time in a normal situation, we wouldn't know which person the hider hid behind.  Now we know.

Cons:  The chances of a two-kill night increase, especially after night1.  The mafia immediately gain information about who they should target N1 (for example, it's unlikely that they will target someone hiding behind them.  Or maybe they would.  But they do get information that allows them to further aim their kill.)  The other thing is, after N1 when any player hiding behind a mafia member turns up alive, the mafia immediately know that all of those players are not the hider.  So each night, this plan gets much, much worse as the mafia get more information.

If the hider doesn't hit scum, which is fairly likely, scum have a list of players they can safely target to kill for the next few nights.  Part of the utility of hider is that it has the possibility of causing a no-lynch.  This utility decreases from the plan, because the mafia gets a list of targets who they know are not hiders.  But, the hider gets the utility of being able to "report" who killed them, so that trade-off may be worth it.

This plan also gets worse and worse as the days go on.  Night1, the mafia have no idea who is a hider or who isn't, so they don't have any more chance of hitting the hidee then they would normally.  But Night2, they do know some players who can't be the hiders, so they have more a of chance of successfully hitting the hidee.

[nkirbit]

We have had a Hider before, and we had this exact same debate over whether to claim /wouldhidebehindX, and I think we sort of did it, and then our Hider died Night 1.

This was Mafia XII, Voltgloss's JK+ Waffle Mafia.

So, let's not do that.

The hider died night 1 because mafia killed the person he was hiding behind, or he hid behind mafia?

[Robz888]

We have had a Hider before, and we had this exact same debate over whether to claim /wouldhidebehindX, and I think we sort of did it, and then our Hider died Night 1.

This was Mafia XII, Voltgloss's JK+ Waffle Mafia.

So, let's not do that.

The hider died night 1 because mafia killed the person he was hiding behind, or he hid behind mafia?

As I explained in a follow up post, he hid behind the person the town vigilante shot.